The route to the center of Zaozhuang
Publish: 2021-05-01 02:20:25
1. 1 The balance of payments is a comprehensive reflection of a country's foreign economic activities, which has a direct impact on the change of a country's currency exchange rate. Moreover, from the perspective of foreign exchange market transactions, international trade in goods and services constitutes the basis of foreign exchange transactions, Therefore, they also determine the basic trend of the exchange rate. Only in terms of the trade part of the current account of the balance of payments, when a country's imports increase and proce a deficit, it will proce additional demand for foreign currencies. At this time, in the foreign exchange market, it will cause the appreciation of foreign exchange and the devaluation of the local currency. On the contrary, when a country's current account has a surplus, it will cause the appreciation of foreign exchange, It will lead to the increase of foreign currency demand and foreign exchange supply, and the exchange rate of local currency will rise.
2. The difference of inflation rate
inflation is a long-term, main and regular factor that affects the change of exchange rate, Fundamentally, it is determined by the comparative relationship of the amount of value it represents. Therefore, in the case of inflation in a country, the amount of value it represents will decrease, its real purchasing power will decrease, and its external price will also decrease. Of course, if the other country also experiences inflation, and the range is exactly the same, the two will offset each other, The nominal exchange rate between the currencies of the two countries may not be affected, but this situation is rare. Generally speaking, the inflation rates of the two countries are different. The exchange rates of the currencies of the countries with high inflation rate fall, while those with low inflation rate rise, Because its influence is often reflected through some economic mechanisms:
(1) commodity and labor trade mechanism
when a country experiences inflation, the domestic cost of its export of goods and services will increase, which will inevitably increase the international price of its goods and services, thus weakening the international competitiveness of its goods and services, and affecting the export and foreign exchange income, Assuming that the exchange rate does not change, inflation will increase the profit of imported goods, stimulate the increase of import and foreign exchange expenditure, which is not concive to the current account situation of the country.
(2) international capital flow channel
inflation in a country will inevitably rece the real interest rate (i.e. nominal interest rate minus inflation rate), (3) psychological expectation channel
the continuous inflation in a country will affect the market's expectation of the trend of exchange rate, which may lead to the phenomenon that the participants in the foreign exchange market are reluctant to sell foreign exchange, wait for the price and rush to buy foreign exchange, It is estimated that the impact of inflation on the exchange rate often takes more than half a year to appear, but its ration is longer, generally more than a few years.
3. The difference of economic growth rate
under other conditions unchanged, the real economic growth rate of a country rises faster than that of other countries, This will increase the country's demand for foreign goods and services. As a result, the country's demand for foreign exchange tends to increase relative to its available foreign exchange supply, resulting in the decline of the country's currency exchange rate. However, two special situations should be noted here: first, for export-oriented countries, economic growth is driven by increased exports, Then the rapid economic growth is accompanied by the rapid growth of exports. At this time, the increase of exports often exceeds the increase of imports, and the exchange rate does not fall, but rises; Second, if domestic and foreign investors regard the country's high economic growth rate as a reflection of its good economic prospects and higher return on capital, they may expand their investment in the country and even offset the current account deficit. At this time, the country's exchange rate may rise instead of falling.
4, Of course, we should also consider the relative difference between the interest rate of one country and that of other countries. If the interest rate of one country rises, but that of other countries also rises, the exchange rate will not be affected; If the interest rate of a country rises, but the interest rate of other countries rises faster, the interest rate of that country will fall relatively, and its exchange rate will also tend to fall. In addition, the influence of the change of interest rate on the capital flow in the world should also consider the factors of the expected change of exchange rate. Only when the sum of the expected change rate of foreign interest rate and exchange rate is greater than the domestic interest rate, it will be profitable to move funds to foreign countries, This is the famous international capital arbitrage activity in the field of international finance; Interest rate parity theory & quot< When the interest rate of a country increases, it means that the opportunity cost of domestic consumption increases, which leads to the decline of consumption demand. At the same time, it also means that the cost of capital utilization increases, and the domestic investment demand also decreases. In this way, the decline of the total level of domestic effective demand will expand exports and rece imports, However, it should be emphasized here that the impact of interest rate on the exchange rate is short-term, and the effect of a country only relying on high interest rate to maintain a strong exchange rate is limited, because it is easy to cause an overvaluation of the exchange rate, and once the overvaluation of the exchange rate is recognized by market investors (Speculators), the exchange rate will increase, It is likely to lead to more serious devaluation of the domestic currency.
5. Fiscal revenue and expenditure
the fiscal revenue and expenditure of the government is often used as the main indicator of the country's currency exchange rate forecast. When a country has a fiscal deficit, whether its currency exchange rate rises or falls mainly depends on the measures chosen by the government to make up for the fiscal deficit, In order to make up for the fiscal deficit, a government can take four measures: one is to increase the fiscal revenue by raising the tax rate. If so, it will rece the level of personal disposable income and rece the personal consumption demand. At the same time, the increase of tax rate will rece the investment profit rate of enterprises and lead to the decrease of investment enthusiasm and investment demand, which will rece the import of capital goods and consumer goods and increase the export, And then lead to the appreciation of the exchange rate; The second is to rece the government's public expenditure, which will rece the national income of the country through the multiplier effect, rece the import demand, and promote the appreciation of the exchange rate; The third is to issue additional currency, which will lead to inflation. As mentioned above, it will lead to the devaluation of the country's currency exchange rate; In the long run, it will lead to a greater rise in prices and a decline in the exchange rate of the country's currency. Among the four measures, governments are more likely to choose the latter two, especially the last one, because issuing national debt is the least likely to bring antagonism among their residents. On the contrary, because national debt is known as & quot; Gilt edged bond & quot; The foreign exchange reserve of a country's central bank reflects its ability to intervene in the foreign exchange market and maintain the stability of the exchange rate, Therefore, the level of foreign exchange reserves plays a major role in the country's monetary stability; On the contrary, with sufficient foreign exchange reserves, the exchange rate of a country's currency is often stronger.
(2) psychological expectation factors
in the foreign exchange market, whether people buy or sell a certain currency has a lot to do with traders' views on the future situation, Some international foreign exchange experts even believe that the expectation psychology of foreign exchange traders for a certain currency is now the most important factor to determine the exchange rate change of the currency market, because under the control of this expectation psychology, the exchange rate of the currency market will rise rapidly, As the formation of foreign exchange traders' expectation psychology depends on a country's economic growth rate, money supply, interest rate, balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves, government economic reform, international political situation and some emergencies and other complex factors, The modern foreign exchange market has graally developed into a highly efficient market e to the highly developed communication facilities, the close connection of financial markets in various countries and the increasingly perfect trading technology. Therefore, any small profit opportunity in the market will immediately lead to large-scale international movement of funds, In this case, who is the first to get the & quot; News & quot; At the same time, we should pay special attention to the effect of the foreign exchange market on the & quot; News & quot; And it's not just about these reactions; News & quot; Itself is & quot; Good news & quot; Or & quot; Bad news;, It mainly depends on whether it is expected, or & quot; Better than & quot; Or & quot; Worse than & quot; In a word, information factors have a subtle and strong impact on the exchange rate changes with the development of foreign exchange market.
(4) government intervention factors
exchange rate fluctuations will have an important impact on a country's economy, There are mainly four ways to intervene: 1. To buy or sell foreign exchange directly in the foreign exchange market; 2; ② Adjust domestic monetary policy and fiscal policy; ③ To influence the market psychology by making statements on an international scale; ④ This kind of intervention is sometimes of great scale and momentum, and it is often possible to invest billions of dollars in the market within a few days. Of course, compared with the foreign exchange market with the current trading scale of more than 1.2 trillion, this is only a drop in the bucket, but to some extent, Government intervention, especially international joint intervention, can affect the psychological expectation of the whole market, and then reverse the trend of exchange rate. Therefore, although it can not fundamentally change the long-term trend of exchange rate, in many cases, it has a great impact on the short-term fluctuation of exchange rate
2. The difference of inflation rate
inflation is a long-term, main and regular factor that affects the change of exchange rate, Fundamentally, it is determined by the comparative relationship of the amount of value it represents. Therefore, in the case of inflation in a country, the amount of value it represents will decrease, its real purchasing power will decrease, and its external price will also decrease. Of course, if the other country also experiences inflation, and the range is exactly the same, the two will offset each other, The nominal exchange rate between the currencies of the two countries may not be affected, but this situation is rare. Generally speaking, the inflation rates of the two countries are different. The exchange rates of the currencies of the countries with high inflation rate fall, while those with low inflation rate rise, Because its influence is often reflected through some economic mechanisms:
(1) commodity and labor trade mechanism
when a country experiences inflation, the domestic cost of its export of goods and services will increase, which will inevitably increase the international price of its goods and services, thus weakening the international competitiveness of its goods and services, and affecting the export and foreign exchange income, Assuming that the exchange rate does not change, inflation will increase the profit of imported goods, stimulate the increase of import and foreign exchange expenditure, which is not concive to the current account situation of the country.
(2) international capital flow channel
inflation in a country will inevitably rece the real interest rate (i.e. nominal interest rate minus inflation rate), (3) psychological expectation channel
the continuous inflation in a country will affect the market's expectation of the trend of exchange rate, which may lead to the phenomenon that the participants in the foreign exchange market are reluctant to sell foreign exchange, wait for the price and rush to buy foreign exchange, It is estimated that the impact of inflation on the exchange rate often takes more than half a year to appear, but its ration is longer, generally more than a few years.
3. The difference of economic growth rate
under other conditions unchanged, the real economic growth rate of a country rises faster than that of other countries, This will increase the country's demand for foreign goods and services. As a result, the country's demand for foreign exchange tends to increase relative to its available foreign exchange supply, resulting in the decline of the country's currency exchange rate. However, two special situations should be noted here: first, for export-oriented countries, economic growth is driven by increased exports, Then the rapid economic growth is accompanied by the rapid growth of exports. At this time, the increase of exports often exceeds the increase of imports, and the exchange rate does not fall, but rises; Second, if domestic and foreign investors regard the country's high economic growth rate as a reflection of its good economic prospects and higher return on capital, they may expand their investment in the country and even offset the current account deficit. At this time, the country's exchange rate may rise instead of falling.
4, Of course, we should also consider the relative difference between the interest rate of one country and that of other countries. If the interest rate of one country rises, but that of other countries also rises, the exchange rate will not be affected; If the interest rate of a country rises, but the interest rate of other countries rises faster, the interest rate of that country will fall relatively, and its exchange rate will also tend to fall. In addition, the influence of the change of interest rate on the capital flow in the world should also consider the factors of the expected change of exchange rate. Only when the sum of the expected change rate of foreign interest rate and exchange rate is greater than the domestic interest rate, it will be profitable to move funds to foreign countries, This is the famous international capital arbitrage activity in the field of international finance; Interest rate parity theory & quot< When the interest rate of a country increases, it means that the opportunity cost of domestic consumption increases, which leads to the decline of consumption demand. At the same time, it also means that the cost of capital utilization increases, and the domestic investment demand also decreases. In this way, the decline of the total level of domestic effective demand will expand exports and rece imports, However, it should be emphasized here that the impact of interest rate on the exchange rate is short-term, and the effect of a country only relying on high interest rate to maintain a strong exchange rate is limited, because it is easy to cause an overvaluation of the exchange rate, and once the overvaluation of the exchange rate is recognized by market investors (Speculators), the exchange rate will increase, It is likely to lead to more serious devaluation of the domestic currency.
5. Fiscal revenue and expenditure
the fiscal revenue and expenditure of the government is often used as the main indicator of the country's currency exchange rate forecast. When a country has a fiscal deficit, whether its currency exchange rate rises or falls mainly depends on the measures chosen by the government to make up for the fiscal deficit, In order to make up for the fiscal deficit, a government can take four measures: one is to increase the fiscal revenue by raising the tax rate. If so, it will rece the level of personal disposable income and rece the personal consumption demand. At the same time, the increase of tax rate will rece the investment profit rate of enterprises and lead to the decrease of investment enthusiasm and investment demand, which will rece the import of capital goods and consumer goods and increase the export, And then lead to the appreciation of the exchange rate; The second is to rece the government's public expenditure, which will rece the national income of the country through the multiplier effect, rece the import demand, and promote the appreciation of the exchange rate; The third is to issue additional currency, which will lead to inflation. As mentioned above, it will lead to the devaluation of the country's currency exchange rate; In the long run, it will lead to a greater rise in prices and a decline in the exchange rate of the country's currency. Among the four measures, governments are more likely to choose the latter two, especially the last one, because issuing national debt is the least likely to bring antagonism among their residents. On the contrary, because national debt is known as & quot; Gilt edged bond & quot; The foreign exchange reserve of a country's central bank reflects its ability to intervene in the foreign exchange market and maintain the stability of the exchange rate, Therefore, the level of foreign exchange reserves plays a major role in the country's monetary stability; On the contrary, with sufficient foreign exchange reserves, the exchange rate of a country's currency is often stronger.
(2) psychological expectation factors
in the foreign exchange market, whether people buy or sell a certain currency has a lot to do with traders' views on the future situation, Some international foreign exchange experts even believe that the expectation psychology of foreign exchange traders for a certain currency is now the most important factor to determine the exchange rate change of the currency market, because under the control of this expectation psychology, the exchange rate of the currency market will rise rapidly, As the formation of foreign exchange traders' expectation psychology depends on a country's economic growth rate, money supply, interest rate, balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves, government economic reform, international political situation and some emergencies and other complex factors, The modern foreign exchange market has graally developed into a highly efficient market e to the highly developed communication facilities, the close connection of financial markets in various countries and the increasingly perfect trading technology. Therefore, any small profit opportunity in the market will immediately lead to large-scale international movement of funds, In this case, who is the first to get the & quot; News & quot; At the same time, we should pay special attention to the effect of the foreign exchange market on the & quot; News & quot; And it's not just about these reactions; News & quot; Itself is & quot; Good news & quot; Or & quot; Bad news;, It mainly depends on whether it is expected, or & quot; Better than & quot; Or & quot; Worse than & quot; In a word, information factors have a subtle and strong impact on the exchange rate changes with the development of foreign exchange market.
(4) government intervention factors
exchange rate fluctuations will have an important impact on a country's economy, There are mainly four ways to intervene: 1. To buy or sell foreign exchange directly in the foreign exchange market; 2; ② Adjust domestic monetary policy and fiscal policy; ③ To influence the market psychology by making statements on an international scale; ④ This kind of intervention is sometimes of great scale and momentum, and it is often possible to invest billions of dollars in the market within a few days. Of course, compared with the foreign exchange market with the current trading scale of more than 1.2 trillion, this is only a drop in the bucket, but to some extent, Government intervention, especially international joint intervention, can affect the psychological expectation of the whole market, and then reverse the trend of exchange rate. Therefore, although it can not fundamentally change the long-term trend of exchange rate, in many cases, it has a great impact on the short-term fluctuation of exchange rate
2. This is the impact of business cycle on stock market price changes. It is not difficult to see that business cycle is an important factor determining the long-term trend of stock price 8) The change of currency includes inflation and deflation. Inflation to
3. Beijing Fuzhou Expressway is direct. I'll go by
you can walk along Shunjing No.10 road in Jinan and head south of Beijing Fuzhou Expressway from the "Jinan West / Changqing" toll station at andian
to Xuecheng, pass the next toll station of "Tengzhou south" and get off the expressway. The whole journey is 220.1 km, lasting about 2 hours and 10 minutes
go to the Central District of Zaozhuang City (urban area), change to Zaomu Expressway at "Tengzhou south" (Mushi town of Tengzhou Zaozhuang City), and then go to Zaozhuang Urban Area for about 15 minutes. The whole journey is 237.4 km and takes 2.5 hours to complete
you can also go directly from G104 to Tengzhou, s345 to mushizhen, s903 to Zaozhuang, but it's much slower, at least 5 hours.
you can walk along Shunjing No.10 road in Jinan and head south of Beijing Fuzhou Expressway from the "Jinan West / Changqing" toll station at andian
to Xuecheng, pass the next toll station of "Tengzhou south" and get off the expressway. The whole journey is 220.1 km, lasting about 2 hours and 10 minutes
go to the Central District of Zaozhuang City (urban area), change to Zaomu Expressway at "Tengzhou south" (Mushi town of Tengzhou Zaozhuang City), and then go to Zaozhuang Urban Area for about 15 minutes. The whole journey is 237.4 km and takes 2.5 hours to complete
you can also go directly from G104 to Tengzhou, s345 to mushizhen, s903 to Zaozhuang, but it's much slower, at least 5 hours.
4. Zaozhuang station to Shizhong District People's Hospital of Zaozhuang City
hope to help you.
hope to help you.
5. Bus terminal
2 Junshan Hotel
3 traditional Chinese medicine hospitals
4 District Price Bureau
5 Hongxing community
6 Mining Bureau hospital
7 Xichang community
8 Metal Company
9 military school
10 kekou middle school
11 water park
12 daliuzhuang
13 lianwang
14 Fenghuangling
15 Ganquan Temple
16 Zhongliang village
17 xiqian Liang
18 dongqianliang
19 dafengzhuang
20 daguozhuang
21 Zhulou
22 Mengzhuang
23 Jiangzhuang
24 houzhaizi
25 driving school
26 East head of Hong Kong Street
27 Limin market
28 Bus Terminus
2 Junshan Hotel
3 traditional Chinese medicine hospitals
4 District Price Bureau
5 Hongxing community
6 Mining Bureau hospital
7 Xichang community
8 Metal Company
9 military school
10 kekou middle school
11 water park
12 daliuzhuang
13 lianwang
14 Fenghuangling
15 Ganquan Temple
16 Zhongliang village
17 xiqian Liang
18 dongqianliang
19 dafengzhuang
20 daguozhuang
21 Zhulou
22 Mengzhuang
23 Jiangzhuang
24 houzhaizi
25 driving school
26 East head of Hong Kong Street
27 Limin market
28 Bus Terminus
6.
The original God Beidou is worth cultivating, but it needs to be determined according to the needs of different players
in the original God, the strength of Beidou is lower than that of five-star characters and higher than that of most four-star characters. It will be better to use her to play boss. If players don't have stronger five-star characters, it is suggested to cultivate her
the big sword is used in Beidou. In the original God, the big sword is a weapon with high damage but slow attack speed. Although it is not very dominant in the ability of clearing soldiers, it has a great advantage in collecting iron ore and fighting isolated monsters, one by one. In addition, if the player can equip her with good weapons, her indivial output is also considerable
extended information:
the element skill of Beidou is to raise weapons to form a shield. The shield has a counterattack effect. When the skill is released or the ration is over, it will wave the sword to release the accumulated strength to counterattack, causing thunder element damage, which is very useful when playing boss
slows down the damage received. In addition, it can also cast thunder elements ring normal attacks and critical strikes. You can use it to resist injury and play boss. It has stronger anti injury ability and output ability
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