Shanghai International Exhibition Center
The only way to Shanghai International Convention and Exhibition Center is Shanghai Metro Line 2
you can get the subway from exit 4, 5 and 6 of Xujing east station
Shanghai International Convention and Exhibition Center covers an area of 32000 square meters, and Shanghai International Convention and Exhibition Center, located on the riverside of Pudong, covers an area of 32000 square meters. The main building is 16000 square meters, with a total construction area of 110000 square meters. It has a multi-function hall of 4300 square meters, a news center of 3600 square meters and nearly 30 venues of various sizes and specifications
bus line: Metro Line 2, the whole journey is about 10.5km
1. Take Metro Line 2 from people's Square, pass 7 stops to Longyang Road Station
2. Walk about 780m to Shanghai New International Expo Center
bus line: Metro Line 3 → Metro Line 2, the whole journey is about 22.3km
1. Take Metro Line 3 from Shanghai railway station, pass 5 stations, and reach Zhongshan Park Station (or Metro Line 4)
2. Walk about 330m, transfer to Metro Line 2
3. Take Metro Line 2, pass 7 stations, and reach Xujing east station
4. Walk about 470m, Arrive at Shanghai Hongqiao International Exhibition Center
2345 Longyang Road, Pudong New Area, Shanghai
Abstract: the quqing bond team of Huachuang Securities believes that the Sino US trade war is likely to end with compromise between the two sides; Even if a real trade war breaks out, a strong domestic demand market means that China's economy will not decline rapidly, and a small decline in the economy does not mean that the central bank will relax monetary policy
Last Friday, trump announced that he plans to tax at least $60 billion of Chinese imports, and will impose restrictions on technology transfer and acquisition from China, which will trigger a Sino US trade war. In addition, for trump to impose 25% and 10% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum procts on the grounds of "national security", the Ministry of Commerce plans to impose additional tariffs on procts imported from the United States totaling US $3 billion. In the first stage, 15% tariffs will be imposed on fresh fruits, dried fruits, nuts, red wine, modified ethanol, American ginseng and seamless steel pipe, and in the second stage, 15% tariffs will be imposed on pork, pork procts and waste aluminum. In the Sino US trade war, what areas will the United States target? And what kind of response could China take? Judging from the performance of the bond market, the yield of last week's 50 year national opening up fell by 15 BP compared with the previous day's closing. Will the Sino US trade war really have such a negative impact on China's economy? In this report, we will discuss the mode of trade war between China and the United States and the possible negative impact on China's economy Finally, a small decline in the economy does not mean that the central bank will relax monetary policy. Whether it's a trade war or a weak investment momentum, the economic fundamentals may decline slightly in the future, but will this definitely lead to the relaxation of the central bank's monetary policy? We don't think so. First of all, overseas pressure has always existed, and the normalization of global monetary policy means that there is limited room for the Central Bank of China to relax; Secondly, the central government's demand for the economy has shifted from maintaining growth to pursuing high-quality development, so the short-term slight decline can not change the orientation of the central bank's monetary policy. At present, the market may be at the time of the most relaxed liquidity in the whole year. In the future, with the graal implementation of personnel adjustment, the market needs to be alert to the risk of tightening monetary policye to the continuous "double reverse" of US steel exports to China, the proportion of China's steel exports to the United States is relatively low in recent years. In 2017, the United States imported 35.93 million tons of steel, 784000 tons of Chinese steel procts, ranking 11th, accounting for only 2.2% of the total imports of the United States. In recent years, China's steel exports have taken a "dark side" route. Specifically, they are exported to Southeast Asia first, then indirectly to the United States, or to South Korea for further processing, and then to the United States. The total amount of these steel exports is even greater than that of direct exports to the United States. China's spot market is still dominated by domestic sales, and the export volume is almost negligible. China's domestic demand is still good. There is no need to worry too much. China's overall economic situation is still good and domestic demand is strong< In 2017, the export volume of China's new energy vehicles reached 106000, of which motor vehicles accounted for 10.01%; In 2017, the export amount of new energy vehicles reached US $327 million. In terms of exporting countries, China exported 214 pure electric passenger cars to the United States in 2017, with a total value of US $1.65 million; The number of plug-in hybrid passenger cars exported to the United States is 1042, with an amount of US $61.15 million, ranking first among all exporting countries
the strategic pace of some Chinese brands to enter the U.S. market may be affected. However, the United States is not the main export place of China's new energy vehicles. At the same time, independent brands do not use American technology and spare parts, which has little impact on sales. On the contrary, US brands such as Tesla may be subject to high tariffs when entering China“ As early as the Anti Japanese War, some models of American cars were very affected. If the United States had such a strong trade war, the automobile instry would certainly be affected. As early as 2011, the Ministry of Commerce announced that it would impose anti-mping and countervailing ties on some large displacement imported vehicles from the United States, involving such enterprises as general motors, Chrysler, Mercedes Benz, BMW and Honda. "
the global oil and gas instry has been dragged down all the way
for the oil and gas instry, pipelines, platforms, oil rigs and processing equipment in the whole oil supply chain depend on steel. The amount of steel imported from oil and gas pipelines in the United States accounts for three-quarters of the total amount of steel used in construction projects
the tariff imposed by the United States on Chinese goods is likely to damage the investment in new LNG projects. LNG projects have always been expensive, usually requiring buyers to make long-term commitment at a fixed price in order to provide financial certainty for developers. Without this guarantee, developers may not give the green light to LNG terminal projects
a trade war may bring down the global economy. Although the geopolitical crisis pushed oil prices higher last week, the stock market situation plummeted as China and the United States launched a trade confrontation, and energy stocks also plummeted. At present, the market has speculated that Trump's trade war is not good news for global economic growth. Affected by this, oil prices will also be dragged down and go down all the way
auto instry - Auto is OK, parts suffer
because the number of cars imported and exported from China and the United States is not very large now, so the impact on imported cars will not be too big. Among the top ten enterprises of China's imported models in 2017, American car companies only have Lincoln brand. In 2017, Lincoln imported 64700 vehicles into the Chinese market, up 78.5% year on year. In addition, in the field of new energy vehicles, Tesla imported 17000 vehicles to China in 2017, a year-on-year increase of 51.6%. Compared with the annual sales of more than 20 million vehicles in the Chinese market, the changes in China US auto import market will not have a great impact on the overall auto market
however, it will have a certain negative impact on the export of China's auto parts. Many of China's auto parts are from the international market. Auto parts enterprises import raw materials and export them in China after proction, so the impact is relatively widespread
communication instry - low dependence, limited impact
as the United States has always maintained a policy of prohibiting American operators from using China's main communication equipment procts, Huawei, ZTE and other communication network equipment are basically not sold in the United States, with low market dependence and little impact from the trade war< In the short run, however, the impact on the chemical instry is relatively small. The procts that may be involved in this survey are high-tech procts such as mechanical and electrical procts, communication procts and information technology procts, while the chemical instry is mainly based on raw materials and less involved in technical disputes, The domestic new materials mainly aim at import substitution; Moreover, in 2017, the trade deficit between China and the United States in terms of chemical instry and related instrial procts was US $700 million, and there was no trade surplus. Our 301 survey has little impact on the chemical instry for the time being
the textile and clothing instry - order transfer, has a great impact
China is the largest textile and clothing exporter in the world, at the same time, textile and clothing export is also an important part of China's trade export. The proportion of textile and clothing exports in China's total foreign trade remains at about 13%. In the top 10 export markets of China's textiles and clothing, the United States takes the first place. China and the United States have a huge trade surplus in textiles and clothing trade. At present, the tariff of the United States on this instry is not very high. For example, the tariff of common clothing procts in China is generally about 10-20%. If the tariff of these procts is raised to 45%, it will have a great impact on exports. The United States has many trading partners. In addition to China, it can purchase from Vietnam, Mexico, India and other places, which is easy to transfer orders. As a strong card of the United States in the trade war, the textile and garment instry will be greatly impacted
the agricultural procts instry has not yet started a war, but has become a serious disaster
under the background of the escalation of trade friction between the United States and China, agricultural commodities have become the main focus of the war. China is the world's largest buyer of agricultural commodities, mainly meeting the needs of feed, edible oil and biofuels. At present, China is not only the largest soybean importer in the world, but also the largest soybean buyer in the United States, and soybean is also the largest agricultural proct exported to China by the United States. According to the American Soybean Association, one third of the soybeans proced by American farmers are sold to China every year, with a total value of about 14 billion US dollars. The association said in a statement on Thursday that if China retaliates in the soybean field, many American farmers will lose their earning power and livelihood. Therefore, if China retaliates against US soybean and pork trade, it will depress US corresponding agricultural proct prices e to reced demand. Under the influence of external factors that Argentina reced soybean meal exports e to drought this year, the price of soybean meal in the United States is facing upward pressure, thus increasing the proction cost of American pig farmers< The Sino US trade friction has caused great turbulence in the global market, but the more market sentiment fluctuates, the more need to maintain a rational attitude. In the long run, the Sino US trade conflict will promote China to further increase investment in domestic scientific and technological innovation and improve the competitiveness of its own brands. In the context of Sino US trade war, the military instry is one of the most unaffected sectors and should obtain excess returns. On March 24, the second commercial aircraft of COMAC C919 successfully carried out a test flight. In addition, as the recent Sino US trade war continues to ferment, Boeing, as the largest exporter of the United States, has the possibility of being included in the list of suspended concession procts by China, and the C919 instrial chain is expected to indirectly benefit from the import substitution effect brought about by the upgrading of the trade war< In 2017, the total value of electronic and communication procts exported from the mainland to the United States was about US $160 billion, accounting for about 35% of the total value of exports to the United States. On the whole, the export of consumer electronics procts from the mainland to the United States is dominated by assembly and OEM of foreign brands. Domestic brand market development is still concentrated outside North America, and its supply chain is less affected by tariff
there is a possibility of relocation in the assembly process, and the upstream components still tend to be concentrated in the mainland. Under the background of "trade war", tariff will become an important consideration in the location of electronic proct assembly process. In the past decade, the mainland's electronics instry has completed import substitution in the middle and low-end sectors, and is ushering in a historic opportunity for instrial upgrading. We judge that the low-end assembly links may move out in the future (for example, some mobile phone factories will move the assembly links to Indonesia, which enjoys tariff preference after India's tariff increase). With capital advantages, engineer dividends and other favorable factors, the mainland component enterprises are expected to upgrade to the high-end proct line, and continue to improve the voice of the instry
China is an important market for us electronic companies. Among US exports to China, the proportion of electronic information procts is about 40%, of which high-end chips and core equipment are the main electronic procts. If the "trade war" ferments, there will be a greater negative impact on the above us enterprises.