Real estate decentralization

2. For the real estate instry, what ordinary people care about most is the housing price. For professionals, the housing price is only a small part. They will analyze the past and future of the real estate market. So in the end 10 years later, what will be the trend of the domestic property market

1. The houses in big cities are becoming more and more capitalized

in the first tier cities and about 10 second tier cities, the properties in their central areas will be increasingly capitalized, and the investors will be globalized and nationalized. In small and medium-sized cities, especially in cities with population loss, houses will return to the original properties of residence, office and commerce. For most Chinese, the most painful days of housing are over. After 95 of the majority of the city, their youth will no longer be squeezed by housing. This is the biggest welfare that the real estate bubble brings to us. Shqinyy

2. The housing price gap between cities will be greater

the government has always wanted to achieve the balanced development of large, medium and small cities in the process of urbanization. However, e to the unbalanced allocation of public resources, development opportunities are more concentrated in the capital, municipalities directly under the central government, provincial capitals and special zones, so the "Matthew effect" in urban development will become increasingly obvious

in the past five years, China has formed six population growth centers, namely, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, as well as their surrounding cities“ "Three small" are Zhengzhou, Changsha and "Xiamen + Quanzhou". In terms of capital increment, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Cheng, Hangzhou and Nanjing have become star cities. In these places, urban housing prices will be supported by people and money

3. It is difficult for big cities to "decentralize"

most cities in Europe and America have the trend of decentralization. At present, China's mega cities are all facing the pressure of traffic and environment. It has become a dream for many people to have a multi center city. But China's national condition is that the per capita cultivated land is small and the land is nationalized. The state is delimiting the boundaries of big cities to prevent unrestricted occupation of land

in addition, public resources can not be evenly distributed, so it is very difficult to go to the central area. On the contrary, the development of mobile Internet technology is making a new change in transportation: if there are 1.5 million taxis and special cars in a city like Beijing, there is no need for private cars. In this way, the traffic deadlock of the city will be opened, and the significance of decentralization will be small< 4. Counter urbanization is difficult to appear

many countries will appear counter urbanization after full urbanization. That is to say, city people go to the countryside to buy land and build villas. In the next 10 to 20 years, it will be very difficult for China to have such a situation. Because there are more Chinese people and less arable land, the land is owned by the state. In addition, the unbalanced distribution of public resources also makes people living in rural areas inconvenient and unsafe

5. Shops are facing revaluation

3. What's the trend of house prices in the next 10 years

1. The housing price gap between cities will be greater

the government has always wanted to achieve the balanced development of large, medium and small cities in the process of urbanization. However, e to the unbalanced allocation of public resources, development opportunities are more concentrated in the capital, municipalities directly under the central government, provincial capitals and special zones, so the "Matthew effect" in urban development will become increasingly obvious. In the past five years, China has formed six population growth centers, namely, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, as well as their surrounding cities“ "Three small" are Zhengzhou, Changsha and "Xiamen + Quanzhou"

2. With the increasing capitalization of housing in big cities, the properties in the central areas of first tier cities and about 10 second tier cities will be increasingly capitalized, and the investors will be global and nationwide. In small and medium-sized cities, especially in cities with population loss, houses will return to the original properties of residence, office and commerce. For most Chinese, the most painful days of housing are over. After 95 of the majority of the city, their youth will no longer be squeezed by housing. This is the biggest welfare that the real estate bubble brings to us.

3. Counter urbanization is difficult to appear

many countries will appear counter urbanization after full urbanization. That is to say, city people go to the countryside to buy land and build villas. In the next 10 to 20 years, it will be very difficult for China to have such a situation. Because there are more Chinese people and less arable land, the land is owned by the state. In addition, the unbalanced distribution of public resources also makes people living in rural areas inconvenient and unsafe< 4. It is difficult for big cities to "decentralize"

most cities in Europe and the United States have the trend of decentralization. At present, China's mega cities are all facing the pressure of traffic and environment. It has become a dream for many people to have a multi center city. But China's national condition is that the per capita cultivated land is small and the land is nationalized. The state is delimiting the boundaries of big cities to prevent unrestricted occupation of land. In addition, public resources can not be evenly distributed, so it is very difficult to go to the central area

5. Shops are faced with value revaluation

the biggest problem that shops are facing is that traditional shopping is increasingly replaced by online shopping, and only "experiential consumption" (catering, film, training, skating rink) is left to support the value of shops. Street shops in traditional commercial districts may be the most dangerous asset, because the unit price is too high. In addition, it is a complex of suburbs and new areas of cities with population loss“ It is more and more difficult to support three generations in one shop. The tragedy of "three generations support one shop" happens at any time< However, it has little impact on the market.

e to the inflection point of real estate in most cities, in order to stabilize the growth, the state is unlikely to introce a strict real estate tax. Real estate tax is the tax source of local governments. In the future, it will be adjusted to local conditions, with different tax rates and tax rection policies. First tier cities are bound to have the highest property tax rate. Overall, property tax has little effect on house prices.

4. In terms of the property itself, there is a huge stock in the market, which is not as good as the small amount of development in the city before. There is a phenomenon that one shop is rich for three generations

the commercial property itself is greatly impacted by e-commerce. In the past, commercial development had to go to places like shopping malls, but now it can be done at home. This has reced demand

it used to be a centralized commercial block, but now it is a decentralized and decentralized mode< br />

5. According to the latest Beijing real estate information, the relevant authorities in Beijing will introce height limit measures for the office buildings in the CBD core area, with the height limit of about 100-180 meters. Jones Lang LaSalle, one of the world's top five real estate consultants, once predicted that after 2025, the stock of Grade A office buildings in Beijing's CBD area will increase to 1.8 million square meters. However, the optimistic total expectation is likely to be changed by a "height limit order". The height limit measures of office buildings are pushing Beijing's urban development into a "decentralized" era.

6. The mobile phone official account can be used to check the nearby personal housing source.

7.

Let me show you a set of data: as of June 2017, the total number of electronic contracts signed by "Fada" exceeded 100 million. Based on an average of 5 pieces of paper per contract, we estimate that 100 million electronic contracts will consume 17000 pieces of paper proced by 20-year-old trees, while saving nearly 2 billion yuan in express delivery costs and 140 million yuan in labor costs. Of course, this is only the economic cost. Let's take a look at the current situation:

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(1) the development and increasing popularity of cloud computing, Internet, mobile Internet and other technologies provide convenient information dissemination and sales channels for the use of electronic contracts

(2) the increasingly perfect and mature national laws and policies provide a certain basis for the dissemination and use of E-contract in the field of mutual fund, business travel platform and other instries

(3) the voice of the market is expanding, and the recognition and acceptance of e-contracts by enterprises and indivial users are graally increasing.

(4) the financing environment is becoming better and better, and the strong financial support "escorts" the development of manufacturers. In recent three years, the number of E-contract enterprises has doubled

It can be seen that the trend of electronic contract replacing paper contract is hard to avoid. Of course, it is good for both public and private

8. Recently, I happened to read the white paper "smart building new cities, creating new trends: Shandong commercial real estate development" written by Jones Lang LaSalle recently released, which details the real estate development situation and future development trend of Shandong in 2019

focusing on the breakthrough and opportunities of Shandong al core cities, this white paper puts forward three major trends of Shandong commercial real estate development from a forward-looking perspective and rich experience, and has insight into the growth opportunities between urban construction and humanistic needs, so as to achieve a vision driven dynamic city<

New Economy: leading the new Shandong and building a new starting point of intelligent manufacturing

under the background of the transformation of new and old kinetic energy, Shandong's huge manufacturing system provides innovation soil for the fourth instrial revolution. The centralization of high-end innovation elements promotes Shandong to form a gradient instrial space led by al cores, and brings real estate development opportunities in different regions< Trend 1: under the background of instrial upgrading and talent influx, pay attention to the commercial charm of the city center "

sustainable instrial development environment will spontaneously attract talents, and a good urban built environment is the foundation and guarantee of high-quality urban life, an important factor to retain talents, and bring diversified development opportunities for the re centralization of commercial real estate in core cities< Trend 2: instrial upgrading drives urban renewal, and science and technology can accelerate spatial change. Technology empowerment will accelerate the change of space carrier in content and mode

trend 3: new culture and tourism development relying on incremental market will be carried out in core cities in an all-round way

with the graal development of cultural tourism market from resource oriented to demand-oriented, grasping the market increment released by the rise of urban leisure customers and matching culture and tourism procts that meet the needs of such consumers will become the way to break the situation of cultural tourism market development in the new era

more specific analysis can be found on the official website of Jones Lang LaSalle. Hope to adopt