Decentralized housing prices in Beijing
as of January 11, 2020, the price of the second ring road in Beijing is about 50000-150000 yuan per square meter, the price difference is very big according to different districts, different configurations and different geographical locations
the second ring road is the most mature and resource concentrated area in Beijing, and it is also an area with rare large area of whole land for development, so the house price is relatively high, and the house supply is relatively small
just because there are not many houses available, developers are generally "reluctant to sell". Some properties sell only four or five sets a month, and some even only one or two sets. Developers basically have no requirements for sales speed, but pay more attention to maintaining a higher profit margin. From the perspective of buyers' intention, few people regard the existing house in the second ring road as the first residence, and pay more attention to its value preservation potential and as an identity symbol
extended data:
the location of a house determines the price of the house. If the location of the house is better, the price will be higher when it is sold. For a house with a remote location, the price is better than that of a house with a good location, which is hundreds or even thousands of square meters. Generally, the prices of houses in the city center are relatively expensive when they are sold, but buyers will still choose to rush to buy them. As a result, the prices of houses in the city center will rise when they are contested by everyone. However, the prices of houses in the suburbs are forgotten by people. It is also common that the prices of houses in the suburbs can be more than twice as high as those in the city
after purchasing a house, the house buyers will use it for living. For living, they should pay attention to whether the supporting facilities around the community are perfect, because they should consider whether the life after living is convenient. If there are large supermarkets, hospitals, restaurants, parks and other basic facilities around the community, the price will be higher than the houses without these facilities, So a community with complete supporting facilities will naturally have higher house prices
2017 is the year of real estate market policy. The state clearly pointed out that "houses are used for living, not for speculation", and issued and implemented purchase restriction policies intensively and frequently. During the 19th National Congress of the CPC, the state once again emphasized that the policy orientation and landing details have greatly inhibited the investment behavior in real estate, and the market graally returns to rationality, which is what we all want to see. However, real estate, after all, is a kind of financial proct with unique investment attributes and appreciation space. It also has the value preservation and low risk that other financial procts such as funds, wealth management, stocks and so on can't match. In Beijing, an international city with many high-quality resources, and a city with very limited land resources, the more advanced asset layout is very important, That's why choice is greater than effort. Looking back at the Beijing real estate market, every 2-3 years is a development cycle, the overall trend of fluctuations! The half year window period generated by this year's purchase restriction is undoubtedly the best node for home buyers, especially for those who just need to buy. This round of purchase restriction mainly restricts the rigid demand, and attention should be paid to the restriction rather than the solution. Once the market adapts, or the policy is relaxed, or the policy is still not relaxed, the demand of restriction will be concentrated or released slowly. Then the real estate market will undoubtedly usher in a new round of growth, similar to February and March this year after 930 last year
as the core city of the national political, cultural, economic and Internet comprehensive center, Beijing can not be copied, and people who want to enjoy high-quality resources will continue to pour into the capital. Therefore, from the demand side, the demand can never be satisfied. 1.5 million sets, diluted in the current population of more than 2300 in Beijing, is just like a drop in the bucket. When it comes to relying on xiong'an and the relocation of enterprises to sort out the population, I admit that many people will leave Beijing because of this, which leads to a logic behind it. Those who can be dispersed must not survive in Beijing, because they can't enjoy the resources of Beijing, so they are second to none. Because the core resources will not move out, so those who can stay will still stay, and those who want to come in will continue to pour in. To put it bluntly, the policy only optimizes the flow of resident population in Beijing, and the result of optimization is that more excellent people will stay in Beijing. For the real estate market, it is undoubtedly an optimization of purchasing power, and the proportion of people with purchasing power is higher. If you agree with us on this level, we will return to the most basic logic: the relationship between supply and demand, the demand side has not decreased, but will continue to increase, and will be optimized by policies. At present, what we can see is that the current urbanization rate is less than 50%, and the balance of 1.5 million housing units provided by Beijing, which has 23 million permanent residents, is unrealistic. So in the long run, the housing market will not continue to decline or even collapse. Buying a house is a big deal, or should we start from the facts? We all imagine that the sales offices should be empty now, but people who actually look at it know that the houses with a little proct power are already very popular. The policy can only suppress the demand for a short time, but can not solve the demand. When everyone responds, the demand will explode again, which will inevitably push the house price up again< br/>
Because good resources are in big cities
I am willing to pay for the high housing price. Although I will also complain about the high housing price, I hope I can make my offspring start a little higher than me, master more resources than me, and constantly stand on the shoulders of others, so that even if they are not rich, they will still not be poor. The above is my personal shallow indirect, hope the subject accept
1 In the long run, house prices in Beijing will still rise
as the capital, Beijing is the center of politics, economy and culture, and its status is unshakable. In terms of housing prices, the main factors affecting their changes are ecation, transportation, medical treatment, commerce and instry, which are closely linked. The instry problem is an important part. Instry brings a large number of people and creates convenient transportation, followed by the establishment of ecation, medical treatment and commerce. If we want to continue to develop in the process of urbanization, the introction and inflow of talents is essential. In this way, the demand for housing will continue to grow steadily. From the trend of house prices from 1998 to 18, there are fluctuations in house prices in a three-year to five-year cycle, but the overall trend data shows that house prices are rising. Take the case before and after the 17-year 317 policy, for example, house prices soared at the end of 16, and after the 317 policy, house prices fell, but they are still 20% higher than those in the first half of 16 and 15 years
(2) looking at population in the long term, finance in the medium term and policies in the short term is actually the relationship between supply and demand. The supply of houses can't keep up with the growth rate of Beijing's population. You may say that the government is vigorously controlling Beijing's population and carrying out population evacuation. This phenomenon will get better. So let's put aside the veil of population control, Take a good look at the actual situation and policies in Beijing[1 recing the low-end population, dispersing the low-end population is the main purpose] it is also the appearance that we can see, such as the fire incident, the demolition of illegal buildings and so on, clearing out a large number of people, and most of these people are people who come to Beijing to work and have a low level of ecation
[2 introction of high-quality talents] two examples are as follows: first, the higher the degree is, the more points will be added; second, the parents of high-quality talents with high degree will be registered after retirement, so as to solve the problem of filial piety for their parents.
< P > [3] most college graates choose to go to Beijing. Beijing is the center of resources, and many Unicorn enterprises have set up headquarters in Beijing, mainly Xierqi, Xierqi Shangdi, Yongfeng's network, Alibaba, Jingdong, Lenovo, etc. these talents have driven the economic development, and also caused the phenomenon of high house prices, high housing and traffic pressure in the northwest. Instead of decreasing, enterprises have graally increased to Wangjing in the northeast, Yizhuang in the southeast, and headquarters base in the southwest. High-end instries have gathered and continuously poured in. In addition, colleges and universities are all in Beijing, and good medical ecation resources are in Beijing, attracting a large number of college entrance examination students and medical elites to gather in Beijing
[four big Beijing, realize the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei]. Take transportation as an example, the railways built before were all long-term railways, but now they are all short-term intercity high-speed railways. The speed is getting faster and faster. We hope that the population in Beijing will be evacuated, but it speeds up the convenience of people from Tianjin and Hebei to Beijing. Tokyo has also done this kind of evacuation, moving the population out to the satellite city, but with no significant effect
in the medium term, finance, real estate in China is not only the property of living, since it is called commercial housing, it has liquidity, and liquidity is related to economy and finance
In the global financial crisis of 2009, the Chinese government saved the world by 400 billion yuan, most of which flowed into real estate; This year, the central bank has lowered the reserve requirement three times (recing the interest rate of deposit reserve). Although it is intended to stimulate the real economy and does not want to pour into the real estate in large quantities, the so-called real economy relies entirely on the house itself, a large number of supporting construction improves the surrounding environment of the real estate, and indirectly drives the development of the real estate with strong planning and development Under the economic situation affected by the trade war, land transaction continues to become a stable economic driving form Last year, land sales accounted for 30% of Beijing's GDP, not counting household appliances and construction
in the short run, the policy can restrain the rise of house price, but it has never said that it should help the house price fall
This year's 917 provident fund policy, in fact, the provident fund center is in short supply of funds, and has little influence on the real estate market At present, the restrictions on purchase are very strict, but 731 "resolutely curb the rise of house prices" 1031 has not mentioned anything about real estate. The main reason is that house prices have indeed declined and the policy has worked. The secondary reason is that the economic growth in the third quarter is too slow, the current economic operation is stable, the downward pressure of the economy is increasing, and the real estate is still a pillar instry of the people. 731 referred to deleveraging, while 1031 turned to stable leverage At the end of the year, the developer's task is heavy, and it's time to impact the performance. The price is down, and the turnover is up, because the bank basically does not lend (before the policy, the interest rate of the first home of Bank of Beijing and China Construction Bank is up to 5%, after the policy, the country does not give the amount, all up to 10%), So developers in the end of the time to clear accounts eager to move Developers will make financial statements on December 25-31, which will reflect the situation of a certain project, so they will give discounts by all means)2. In the downward trend, it is very appropriate to buy a house, because the Zui low point is not so coincidentally encountered. At this stage, the price discount and payment cycle are easy to talk about. When the market recovers, although the price also recovers to this price, But everyone knows that it's hard to negotiate terms with developers—— At present, the major real estate big V, real estate experts are policy, financial and other aspects of analysis to buy a house. At that time, these big V also started to buy a house at this time, we ordinary people follow the eyes of real estate experts, the possibility of problems is very small
All of them have sufficient funds, and they are almost ready to buy a house because they have actually formed the experience of buying a house for so many years. They know that this is a good time to buy a house. This is the importance of long-term and forward-looking vision
in addition, in terms of policy, many people want to wait until after the two sessions to see the situation:
after the two sessions, there are only two situations we can wait for. First, the price has not changed, but the cycle and discount have become difficult to talk about; The second is rising prices
The two sessions will be held at the beginning of the new year. After the two sessions, if the policy is suppressed, it will return to the price of selling without losing money. If the policy is relaxed, it will increase the price In the two sessions of next year, we can think about how to suppress the policies. To put it bluntly, the 317 policy of 17 years to now is all about suppressing house prices, including restricting purchase, increasing the proportion of down payment, buying houses and lending houses; 731 resolutely curb the rise of housing prices, 917 provident fund new deal, but the land price is rising, deleveraging has almost gone, and the economy has been hit and affected. At present, stabilizing the leverage is the top priority. Further strengthening efforts is nothing more than not granting land. Let's not buy a house, but in fact, in April 18, three new residential plots were approved for sale
to sum up, Beijing's house prices, especially the prices of first-hand houses, are always in short supply because of the continuous large amount of rigid demand and the decreasing of land plots, and will not drop basically, which may be e to the government's actions. But the big relationship between supply and demand determines the market price
first, I suggest that we buy small property right houses in the mature small community near the Fifth Ring Road, and there are many small property right commercial houses near Tiantongyuan, which were sold for 1500-3000 yuan in 2002-04. Now it is very close to line 5 and the urban rail, and there are many buses such as No. 850, 487 and No. 2. In fact, the price increase of houses here is more than twice, which is lower than that of the whole city. If we can get loans, This problem can be solved
Second, buy affordable housing or apply for low rent housing. I asked my brother about the application conditions for affordable housing. You are sure to meet the requirements. First, the income of a small family is no more than 330600, because you are from Beijing. If your wife's income is not very high, you can prove that she has no fixed income or that she has a low salary from a unit. Social security personnel only certify that they do not want to transfer to other countries or go to enterprises for examination. They also hope that the situation will be true and help you solve the difficulties. They can get the form from the district and county social security center, If you need the approval of the local neighborhood committee, you can ask the familiar aunts and aunts to help you complete this form and hand it to the social security center. There is a great possibility that you can participate in the recent lottery of the whole city. If you fail in the lottery within three years, in the fourth year (now it seems to be the third year), you will automatically think that you have the right to choose houses, and the affordable houses that open in the whole city will be selected first
if that doesn't work, you can apply for low rent housing, and the condition is that you need a salary certificate from the unit, so you can choose a house with extremely low rent in the whole city
it seems that the key is that you have to deal with the elders and aunts of the neighborhood committee, as well as the proof from the unit. Most units hope that the housing problem of the employees can be solved. For a little lie, the unit is willing to take responsibility for you. If you really can't find the seal of the unit, you can find a friend's unit to seal it. Why don't the social security staff check it, Because they will announce after they approve the suitable housing, and ask the people of the whole district and the grassroots neighborhood committee to review it. If everyone knows your situation, everyone will help you, and there are still many good people in the world. If you really can't open this certificate, I can let my friend's company open it for you
in conclusion, it seems that it is more appropriate to buy affordable housing, but the housing prices in Beijing suburbs are not so expensive. Seriously, houses with small property rights are still a lot cheaper
seeing your question, I have written an answer, but the system does not allow me to pass it twice. You can only modify the reply:
if you are over 30 years old, you can apply for affordable housing independently. If you are less than 30 years old but you are married, you can also apply as a small family. However, I think your situation is special. If your father owns real estate and you are over 18 years old when the old man dies, you should set up an independent household in the police station and normally enjoy part of the real estate. Now, the real estate of you and your grandfather may not be protected with the change of householder. I think you should ask a lawyer friend, This problem can not be solved by applying for affordable housing. Police station is probably the north seven police stations, you can ask, if you need help, you can go to my blog message.
1. The market recovers slowly - the policy stops and the interest rate rises.
first of all, the market has obviously recovered after the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, because many customers wanted to wait for the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China to see if there would be any policy. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China did not issue some policies on real estate. Compared with last year, the market is really bad, and this bad is not that the house price has not dropped, but the turnover has come down, because a large number of people can't afford to buy the first set of the second set. As a result, many people like you have changed from buying a house to waiting-and-see. At present, it has been more than half a year since the 317 policy was introced, and the average transaction price of new houses in Beijing has not declined, On the contrary, it rose slightly. Some of the second-hand houses have indeed dropped, but most of the second-hand houses that have dropped are old communities, and there is no environmental property. When you see the price drop of this part of houses, you should first know how much it rose last year, but the market last year was too good, this part of second-hand houses rose to a virtual high price, and this year it returned to its real price, It's still rising
secondly, e to the national policy, banks have generally raised the loan interest rate. No matter in the first set or the second set, the loan interest rate has obviously gone up. The first set has gone up to 1.05 times of the benchmark interest rate, and the second set has gone up to 1.2 times. Now many banks have begun to stop lending. Most of the reasons are not directly caused by the state regulation, but because the banks themselves do not have much loan line by the end of the year. In the whole 17 years, especially at the beginning of the year, real estate has developed very fast. The banks have received a lot of real estate loans, and the interbank lending rate has reached 4.7%, The benchmark interest rate for home buyers is only 4.9%, even if it rises, it is only 5.16%. Other banks seek to borrow from the Bank of China, and the difference is only more than 0.2% to 0.3%. In this case, when the bank does not have a loan line in hand, they will not go to the bank peers to borrow, but rather directly close the loan channel. That is, the current second-hand housing lending cycle is basically to March next year. For you, compared with you now, the price of your house purchase at the beginning of this year did not drop much, just the monthly payment has increased a lot,. Your wait-and-see costs will only get higher and higher<
2. The motive force of rising house prices
--- demand always exists
why is the Yellow River and the Nile the mother river? The reason is that there are resources. We should know that 50% of the world's population lives on 1% of the land. This is the Matthew effect. The advantageous resources will continue to absorb more advantageous resources. So any idea of even population distribution is unrealistic. One third of the population of Japan lives in Tokyo, while London has nearly 50% of the population of Britain. Why? Because the resources of medical treatment, ecation, transportation, supporting facilities, instry, employment opportunities and development prospects of these cities are super first-class. In order to share these high-quality resources, people will continue to crowd into such cities. Obviously, Beijing is such a city
if you recognize this logic, it will be easy to understand next. Beijing, as the core city of the national political, cultural, economic and Internet comprehensive center, can not be copied. People who want to enjoy high-quality resources will continue to pour into the capital. Therefore, from the demand side, the demand will never be satisfied. 1.5 million sets, diluted in Beijing, which has a population of more than 2300, is just like a drop in the bucket. When it comes to relying on xiong'an and the relocation of enterprises to sort out the population, I admit that many people will leave Beijing because of this, which leads to a logic behind it. Those who can be dispersed must not survive in Beijing, because they can't enjoy the resources of Beijing, so they are second to none. Because the core resources will not move out, so those who can stay will still stay, and those who want to come in will continue to pour in. To put it bluntly, the policy only optimizes the flow of resident population in Beijing, and the result of optimization is that more excellent people will stay in Beijing. For the real estate market, it is undoubtedly an optimization of purchasing power, and the proportion of people with purchasing power is higher. If you agree with us on this level, we will return to the most basic logic: the relationship between supply and demand, the demand side has not decreased, but will continue to increase, and will be optimized by policies. At present, what we can see is that the current urbanization rate is less than 50%, and the balance of 1.5 million housing units provided by Beijing, which has 23 million permanent residents, is unrealistic. So in the long run, the housing market will not continue to decline or even collapse. If you agree with all of the above, it will be easy to explain the housing market volatility in the first half of the next year. It is nothing more than the short-term effect of the policy. Last year, 930 was introced, and the market turnover dropped by 30%. However, the house price rose by 4%. According to the data a month ago, the speed of new housing entering the market and the speed of de urbanization are 1; 2.2 according to this ratio, Beijing's new housing market is likely to face no house to buy in the next 8 to 10 months, and the demand will not decrease. Buying a house is a big deal, or should we start from the facts? We all imagine that the sales offices should be empty now, but people who actually look at it know that the houses with a little proct power are already very popular. The policy can only suppress the demand for a short time, but can not solve the demand. When everyone responds, the demand will explode again, which will inevitably push the house price up again.
Vanke has reced its price in the Yangtze River Delta, so it seems that the developers can't hold on. A new round of price rection is coming
1. With the impact of the global financial crisis on our country graally reflected, enterprises are laying off workers and recing wages severely. Now the urban unemployment rate has risen to 9.4%, and the economy in 2009 will be even more severe... The European and American economies are still deteriorating
2. With the vacancy rate of more than 200 million square meters in China, the pressure on developers will be even greater!! The central government also stressed that the housing price should be reced to a reasonable level (the price determined by the real cost of construction). Refuse profiteering
3. With the graal entry of affordable housing into the market, the change of population structure and the end of the marriage peak, the supply and demand of commercial housing graally tend to be in balance, and there will be almost no sharp rise in the previous two years
moreover, the quality of commercial houses built in the past three years is not very good. I often hear from colleagues and friends who buy houses that there are cracks in the walls and water leaks in the floors.. In addition, the recent weakness of the rental market has further reced the motivation to buy a house
it is suggested not to buy a house in the last year. The house price has just started to fall, but it is far from the end
at present, many real estate employers entrust them to purchase houses for ten thousand people, which creates false rush buying market for people to raise house prices.... Developers and some government departments leave the purpose of letting people live and work in peace and contentment, but blindly cheat and leave the social development concept of honesty and people-oriented
we people have to keep a clear understanding and unite to resist the high housing prices
the golden age of buying a house has long passed. 90% of the buyers have made hundreds of profits, but they have thrown all the risks to the people who want to take over now. If you don't have to buy it, don't buy it
in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the phenomenon of mortgage default of many banks is increasing... More and more people check out in Xiamen and other places
many real estate agents begin to close down, bankruptcy is the best witness
in Suzhou, where I live, the rent has been reced.. A lot of houses can't be rented out. The landlord is in a hurry
Where is the price of house? Strongly urge the government to open and transparent the real cost price of housing
the secret of housing price cost is undoubtedly a sword of Damocles for developers. There are too many shady things that are coerced in the concept of "cost". For example, the costs of bidding for land, bribing officials, and bank loans can never be put on the table; Moreover, once it is advertised, the exorbitant profits of house prices will not be able to meet the social psychology of seeking balance and ignite the hatred of the public
"in the suburbs of Guangzhou, the construction cost of a building is 679 yuan per square meter (including material and labor costs)! Who doesn't believe it? I can take the invoice to Beijing and Xinhuanet, and make it clear for the people of the whole country to see! " These two days, an informed netizen told the inside story. I don't know how many real estate businessmen are afraid
the real estate instry is really profiteering..! No wonder TCL, Haier and others also want to set foot in the real estate instry and make a lot of money...
Second, strong group buying has raised the price of commercial housing. He believes that Beijing, as the capital, has a large number of central ministries and commissions, affiliated enterprises and institutions, financial and commercial institutions, and foreign offices in Beijing. These units not only have a large number of house purchases and a strong price bearing capacity, but also pay attention to good location, which has become the main force driving up the price of commercial housing in Beijing. Relevant information also shows that from 1992 to 1997, the purchasing power of social groups in Beijing's commercial housing market share has been around 90%, and it has remained at nearly 80% in 1998. In the same period, in Shanghai, the group's purchasing power only accounts for about 40%, while in Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other places, it has dropped to 20% - 30%.