Does the depreciation of the US dollar have an impact on digital
Publish: 2021-04-30 04:07:27
1. Not for the time being, not in the future
2. First of all, the current situation is that RMB is devalued against the US dollar. Other currencies have devalued against the US dollar for many years. That is to say, RMB has been appreciating against other currencies in the past year or two
secondly, judging from the future, the exchange rate of euro and pound sterling against the US dollar will graally strengthen, while the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is on the rise. My view is that in the next few years, the main currencies of RMB against the euro, yen and pound sterling will continue to depreciate, even by a large margin. As for the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar, Singapore dollar, etc., the currency value and RMB will depreciate simultaneously.
secondly, judging from the future, the exchange rate of euro and pound sterling against the US dollar will graally strengthen, while the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is on the rise. My view is that in the next few years, the main currencies of RMB against the euro, yen and pound sterling will continue to depreciate, even by a large margin. As for the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar, Singapore dollar, etc., the currency value and RMB will depreciate simultaneously.
3. For the United States, the depreciation of the US dollar is concive to stimulating exports, promoting economic growth, and improving the trade deficit. However, for the world economy and international finance, the initial disorder of the international monetary system and global financial market turbulence caused by the depreciation of the US dollar will increase the overall risk. For China, which has not been directly impacted by the subprime mortgage crisis e to the incomplete opening of capital account, the depreciation of US dollar is having a negative impact on China's financial ecology through three channels. Moreover, in view of the fact that financial risk contagion is more rapid than real economy shock, the impact of US dollar depreciation on China's exchange rate system reform, monetary policy and asset price formation may be more obvious< Under the guidance of three principles of initiative, controllability and graalness, the market-oriented reform of China's exchange rate formation mechanism has achieved remarkable results in the past three years. However, the rapid depreciation of the US dollar aggravates the internal imbalance of the exchange rate structure. In 2007, RMB appreciated by 6.9% against the US dollar, 2.44% against the Japanese yen, and 3.75% against the euro. This shows that the formation of RMB exchange rate does not fully and truly reflect the change trend of the equilibrium exchange rate. Although the RMB exchange rate is adjusted with reference to a basket of currencies, the relationship between the US dollar exchange rate and the RMB exchange rate is still relatively close. The constant fall of the US dollar actually restricts the effective determination of the bilateral exchange rate between RMB and other currencies, which is not concive to the formation of the real relationship between supply and demand in the exchange rate market
in addition, although the devaluation of currencies against Africa and the United States is concive to the diversified development of China's foreign trade, e to the high volatility of the global foreign exchange market in this round of US dollar devaluation, this diversified path is relatively fragile. Once the euro value returns rationally, China's trade may encounter more complex exchange rate risks in the repeated structure< (2) the devaluation of the US dollar may offset the effect of China's monetary policy.
the structural effect of the exchange rate on global price stability is easily ignored by the market. In fact, it is an important factor determining the interaction of monetary policies and the allocation of inflation costs among countries. Since the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates sharply in order to save market confidence, ease the credit crunch and stimulate economic growth; At the same time, based on the possibility of economic growth turning from faster to overheated and the increase of inflation pressure, China's regulators have carried out a series of tightening operations by using a variety of monetary policy tools. At present, most people in the market focus on the role of the Federal Reserve Policy in offsetting the impact of the subprime mortgage. In fact, whether or not the easing policy of the Federal Reserve can save the U.S. economy, its external effects can not be ignored
according to the latest data of price indicators of the two countries, the depreciation of the US dollar has created a channel for the international transfer of inflation risk. On March 14, 2008, the CPI of the United States in February remained unchanged, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, both lower than expected; China's CPI rose 8.7% year-on-year on March 11, the highest monthly increase in more than 10 years. According to China's financial data released on March 12, RMB new loans in February totaled 243.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 170.4 billion yuan; The balance of RMB loans grew by 15.73% year-on-year, 0.37% and 1.01% lower than that at the end of last year and January respectively, and the "tight credit" policy has begun to take effect. But at the same time, the inflation pressure is still increasing, one of the important reasons is that China's inflation contains many uncontrollable external factors. The depreciation of the US dollar has triggered the price surge in the international commodity market, increased the global inflation pressure, and thus worsened the external financial ecology of China's monetary policy regulation
a series of loose monetary policies of the US Federal Reserve have not brought about the monetary phenomenon of inflation, while a series of tight monetary policies of China have failed to restrain the price rise rapidly, which can be partly attributed to the fact that the loose monetary policy of the US has released the inflation risk outward rather than inward through the weak US dollar< (3) the depreciation of the US dollar is not concive to the rational formation of China's asset prices. The devaluation of the US dollar brings potential impact to the Chinese market through three channels: first, the devaluation of the US dollar reces the profit space of Chinese foreign trade enterprises through the exchange rate channel, which makes the asset prices rise continuously and lacks a strong material basis; Second, the devaluation of the US dollar has caused a great drag on the stock markets of Europe and the United States by undermining economic confidence, and China's market, which has been increasingly linked internationally, has also been affected by cross-border contagion; Third, the devaluation of the US dollar brings the risk of increased cross-border capital flows to the Chinese market by aggravating the global excess liquidity. Under the background of the weak US dollar, global capital lacking stable investment sites frequently flows in and out of various markets with large differences. As one of the largest emerging markets, China has been highly concerned by international capital, which greatly increases the difficulty of supervision, It makes the formation of China's asset prices subject to greater uncertainty
in short, the devaluation of the US dollar is exporting financial risks to the outside world. China should pay close attention to the impact of the devaluation of the US dollar and form a rational judgment on the future trend of the US dollar exchange rate, whether it is deliberately done by the US or not.
in addition, although the devaluation of currencies against Africa and the United States is concive to the diversified development of China's foreign trade, e to the high volatility of the global foreign exchange market in this round of US dollar devaluation, this diversified path is relatively fragile. Once the euro value returns rationally, China's trade may encounter more complex exchange rate risks in the repeated structure< (2) the devaluation of the US dollar may offset the effect of China's monetary policy.
the structural effect of the exchange rate on global price stability is easily ignored by the market. In fact, it is an important factor determining the interaction of monetary policies and the allocation of inflation costs among countries. Since the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates sharply in order to save market confidence, ease the credit crunch and stimulate economic growth; At the same time, based on the possibility of economic growth turning from faster to overheated and the increase of inflation pressure, China's regulators have carried out a series of tightening operations by using a variety of monetary policy tools. At present, most people in the market focus on the role of the Federal Reserve Policy in offsetting the impact of the subprime mortgage. In fact, whether or not the easing policy of the Federal Reserve can save the U.S. economy, its external effects can not be ignored
according to the latest data of price indicators of the two countries, the depreciation of the US dollar has created a channel for the international transfer of inflation risk. On March 14, 2008, the CPI of the United States in February remained unchanged, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, both lower than expected; China's CPI rose 8.7% year-on-year on March 11, the highest monthly increase in more than 10 years. According to China's financial data released on March 12, RMB new loans in February totaled 243.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 170.4 billion yuan; The balance of RMB loans grew by 15.73% year-on-year, 0.37% and 1.01% lower than that at the end of last year and January respectively, and the "tight credit" policy has begun to take effect. But at the same time, the inflation pressure is still increasing, one of the important reasons is that China's inflation contains many uncontrollable external factors. The depreciation of the US dollar has triggered the price surge in the international commodity market, increased the global inflation pressure, and thus worsened the external financial ecology of China's monetary policy regulation
a series of loose monetary policies of the US Federal Reserve have not brought about the monetary phenomenon of inflation, while a series of tight monetary policies of China have failed to restrain the price rise rapidly, which can be partly attributed to the fact that the loose monetary policy of the US has released the inflation risk outward rather than inward through the weak US dollar< (3) the depreciation of the US dollar is not concive to the rational formation of China's asset prices. The devaluation of the US dollar brings potential impact to the Chinese market through three channels: first, the devaluation of the US dollar reces the profit space of Chinese foreign trade enterprises through the exchange rate channel, which makes the asset prices rise continuously and lacks a strong material basis; Second, the devaluation of the US dollar has caused a great drag on the stock markets of Europe and the United States by undermining economic confidence, and China's market, which has been increasingly linked internationally, has also been affected by cross-border contagion; Third, the devaluation of the US dollar brings the risk of increased cross-border capital flows to the Chinese market by aggravating the global excess liquidity. Under the background of the weak US dollar, global capital lacking stable investment sites frequently flows in and out of various markets with large differences. As one of the largest emerging markets, China has been highly concerned by international capital, which greatly increases the difficulty of supervision, It makes the formation of China's asset prices subject to greater uncertainty
in short, the devaluation of the US dollar is exporting financial risks to the outside world. China should pay close attention to the impact of the devaluation of the US dollar and form a rational judgment on the future trend of the US dollar exchange rate, whether it is deliberately done by the US or not.
4. At present, the main network is not online, so it's time to buy mining machines, but don't be fooled. Now the instry is in deep water. It is suggested that you can understand the mining machinery of Diancun technology.
5.
Suppose that after the devaluation of the US dollar to RMB 1:8, the amount of RMB that can be exchanged by the US dollar will be reced to 1:7, and then suppose that I have 1W US dollars. Before the exchange rate drops, the 1W US dollars = 8W RMB, but because of the depreciation of the US dollar, the amount of RMB that can be exchanged will be reced, so the 1W US dollars will become 7W RMB, This is equivalent to my hands of 1W RMB evaporation disappeared without reason. But on the other hand, in the U.S. dollar use area, where the U.S. dollar is used as the currency in circulation, such as the United States, because they have been using the U.S. dollar, even if the U.S. dollar depreciates, it will not affect domestic prices. Therefore, ring the financial crisis, the U.S. adopted various measures to increase the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the RMB, because China has the largest foreign exchange reserves of the U.S. dollar, Therefore, this kind of behavior in the United States is a bad trick to benefit oneself at the expense of others. Therefore, the depreciation of the US dollar has almost no effect on this kind of currency, but for countries and indivials with a large amount of US dollar foreign exchange reserves, they may suffer huge losses
America makes a lot of money! The United States consumes more and proces less. What kind of consumption do you take? Take the dollar. So every dollar is an IOU from the United States. The foreign exchange reserves of various countries are a pile of IOUS from the United States. This is the premise. The following is clear:
if the US dollar to RMB ratio is 1:10, China's one trillion US dollar foreign reserves will be 10 trillion RMB. If the US dollar is 1:1 to the people, China's one trillion US dollar foreign reserves will be 1 trillion yuan!! The devaluation of the US dollar devalues US debt
6. The impact of RMB appreciation on all walks of life: 1. Foreign exchange debt instry will benefit significantly, mainly including aviation, trade and other instries. Because these instries have more foreign exchange liabilities (especially US dollar liabilities), RMB appreciation will bring exchange gains and losses to these instries, especially airlines, which often have huge US dollar liabilities, so they will benefit significantly. 2. The import-oriented instries of raw materials or components will also benefit, mainly including papermaking (pulp import), steel (iron ore import), car (some important parts import), petrochemical (crude oil import), chemical fiber and plastic (raw material import), aviation (aviation equipment import), clothing (high-grade fabric import), etc. As these instries need to import relevant raw materials and components every year, the appreciation of RMB will rece the cost of these instries to a certain extent. For example, the cost of pulp in China's paper instry accounts for 70%, while 38% of the pulp is imported. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB will make the cost of the paper instry decline significantly, thus significantly improving the profitability of the paper instry. 3. Investment procts instry will also be sought after by certain funds, mainly including real estate with land value, park development and other instries, coal with resource value, non-ferrous metals and other instries. As the appreciation rate is not large, foreign capital may gain appreciation income by investing in the land or real estate owned by companies in these instries, which will increase the attraction of capital to these investment goods instries and lead to the rise of prices. 4. Traditional export-oriented instries are directly impacted, including textile and clothing, household appliances, machinery and other procts. The rising cost brought by RMB appreciation will rece the profit margin of these instries, but we think that only 2% appreciation has little effect. Through cost compression and appropriate price transfer, companies in these instries, especially leading enterprises, will have strong anti risk ability. 5. The instries with international pricing will be impacted to some extent, including non-ferrous metals with full international pricing, petrochemical, iron and steel, electronic components and other instries with partial international pricing. Because the proct prices of these instries are greatly affected by international prices, the appreciation of RMB will make their prices in the case of RMB pricing decline, resulting in a decline in profits. 6. The instries replaced by imported procts will also be adversely affected, including automobiles, construction machinery, steel, household appliances, etc. The competition between the procts of these instries and imported procts is more fierce, and the appreciation of RMB will lead to the decline of the quoted price of imported procts in RMB, which makes the competitiveness of local procts decline to a certain extent, and then affects the profitability of these instries. 7. The foreign trade service instry may suffer indirectly. The appreciation of RMB may have a certain negative impact on China's foreign trade, especially on exports, so it may have a certain negative impact on ports, airports and shipping instries. However, e to the stimulation of appreciation, imports may also increase to a certain extent, so the impact is relatively small. Why appreciation? One of the reasons is that our foreign trade surplus is too much. The growth rate of our foreign trade and export is too fast. Our economy can't afford it, and the world can't afford it more and more. All kinds of imbalances are beginning to emerge. Therefore, we have adopted some policies, including monetary policy, whose purpose is to rece the growth rate of our foreign trade and export. That is to rece the trade surplus, especially the trade surplus with the United States, so that our foreign exchange reserves are not increasing by hundreds of billions every year. Now we have reached 1.6 trillion, and then 2 trillion. Our goal is to rece its speed. Therefore, we can't say that ye gonghao is a good dragon. In the past, we always talked about recing the balance of payments, recing the surplus. As a result, the surplus began to decrease, and we began to feel unbearable. Since there are adjustments and rections, some instries and enterprises may be impacted, which is also foreseen. I understand that the current policy is to prevent big shocks and let it go in small steps. The biggest consideration for small steps is that our enterprises should give us a buffer period. Instead of orders running away all at once, there is also a process of cost rection and structural adjustment, which gives us a buffer. But after all, this is an adjustment. In the past, our foreign trade surplus increased by more than 40% last year and by more than 60% the year before last. This is unsustainable. We need to rece it. So I said, first of all, we need to recognize this. Second, when will there be further consequences? I said that the market will graally appreciate and realize the process of equilibrium. And again, why do we accelerate appreciation against the dollar? One of the most important is the accelerated depreciation of the US dollar. When we accelerate the appreciation, we haven't caught up with the pace of its depreciation. We are still devaluing against the euro and yen. The world is not just a dollar currency. We are still trading partners with other countries. We have a smaller deficit against the euro and yen. Europeans will also discuss with us about this imbalance. So how fast does it appreciate. Where is the equilibrium point? We can't just ask the Chinese, we have to ask how much the US dollar has depreciated. Now the euro has depreciated to 1.56 against the US dollar, and when will it end? This is the biggest question. Changes in the United States have brought about all changes. So you say where the equilibrium point is, no one knows. Therefore, if we want to adjust, we should not only look at the adjustment of imports and exports to the United States, but also look at the adjustment of imports and exports to other countries. Having said that, we should also realize that China needs to adjust. It is indeed unsustainable for us to follow the growth pattern of the past and the growth pattern of such a large foreign trade surplus. But on the other hand, China has to grow and develop the international market. Otherwise, when will our low-income level complete the process of instrialization and transformation of farmers. Therefore, we really need to pay close attention to the changes in the market, the whole employment situation and the whole international situation. In the context of the US subprime crisis and in the process of RMB dollar adjustment, we should pay close attention to the changes in various variables, so as to make our policy adjustment and the adjustment of various variables to a more appropriate degree
the positive effect of RMB's moderate appreciation: it is concive to continue to promote the reform of the exchange rate system and even the financial system. It is concive to solving the imbalance of foreign trade. Due to the single exchange rate system pegged to the US dollar, Chinese procts always maintain the advantage of "low price". Moderate and small appreciation of RMB can alleviate the imbalance of international payments to a certain extent. It is beneficial to rece the price of imported goods and the proction cost of export enterprises which mainly import raw materials. It is beneficial to rece the cost of outbound tourism for Chinese citizens. It is concive to promote domestic enterprises to strive to improve the competitiveness of procts. Our enterprises have been occupying the international market with low prices for a long time, making foreign importers profit. If the price is raised after appreciation, the market may be lost; If the price is not raised, the loss may be increased. Therefore, we can only improve proctivity and technology content, rece costs, improve quality and enhance competitiveness. It helps to rece the demand of foreign capital for domestic purchase and rece the real estate bubble. The adverse effect of RMB appreciation is that it will rece the profit margin of enterprises in a certain period of time, rece the competitiveness and share in the international market, and rece the export. It will intensify competition in some domestic fields. Some manufacturers of export procts will join the ranks of domestic market competition, making the already fierce competition in the domestic market even more fierce. It will result in relative overproction in some areas. For example, 40% ~ 60% of the export commodities such as food, clothing and cultural goods are transferred to the domestic market, which will inevitably lead to oversupply of procts in a certain period of time. It will aggravate the employment pressure, especially lead to many migrant workers lose their jobs. It will increase the cost of foreign investment in China, and the utilization of foreign capital may graally decline. It will lead to an increase in the cost of overseas tourists traveling in the mainland, which may make them switch to other countries or regions.
the positive effect of RMB's moderate appreciation: it is concive to continue to promote the reform of the exchange rate system and even the financial system. It is concive to solving the imbalance of foreign trade. Due to the single exchange rate system pegged to the US dollar, Chinese procts always maintain the advantage of "low price". Moderate and small appreciation of RMB can alleviate the imbalance of international payments to a certain extent. It is beneficial to rece the price of imported goods and the proction cost of export enterprises which mainly import raw materials. It is beneficial to rece the cost of outbound tourism for Chinese citizens. It is concive to promote domestic enterprises to strive to improve the competitiveness of procts. Our enterprises have been occupying the international market with low prices for a long time, making foreign importers profit. If the price is raised after appreciation, the market may be lost; If the price is not raised, the loss may be increased. Therefore, we can only improve proctivity and technology content, rece costs, improve quality and enhance competitiveness. It helps to rece the demand of foreign capital for domestic purchase and rece the real estate bubble. The adverse effect of RMB appreciation is that it will rece the profit margin of enterprises in a certain period of time, rece the competitiveness and share in the international market, and rece the export. It will intensify competition in some domestic fields. Some manufacturers of export procts will join the ranks of domestic market competition, making the already fierce competition in the domestic market even more fierce. It will result in relative overproction in some areas. For example, 40% ~ 60% of the export commodities such as food, clothing and cultural goods are transferred to the domestic market, which will inevitably lead to oversupply of procts in a certain period of time. It will aggravate the employment pressure, especially lead to many migrant workers lose their jobs. It will increase the cost of foreign investment in China, and the utilization of foreign capital may graally decline. It will lead to an increase in the cost of overseas tourists traveling in the mainland, which may make them switch to other countries or regions.
7. Today's latest exchange rate conversion: 1 US dollar = 6.3236 RMB yuan, the above data is for reference only, and the transaction price at the bank counter shall prevail.
8. You'd better try the next anti-virus software. You'd better use Kaba to kill the virus in safe mode.
if the problem still exists, you can take down your memory and plug it in again to see if it is gray and clean<
if you can't, you can reload the system and don't repair it.
someone in the computer city once told me that the blue screen often has a problem with the motherboard, but I'm not sure.
another way is that if the keyboard is broken, the computer blue screen will appear
if the problem still exists, you can take down your memory and plug it in again to see if it is gray and clean<
if you can't, you can reload the system and don't repair it.
someone in the computer city once told me that the blue screen often has a problem with the motherboard, but I'm not sure.
another way is that if the keyboard is broken, the computer blue screen will appear
Hot content