A case study of digital currency
The globalization process of digital currency is still progressing steadily. All countries are trying to develop their own blockchain applications and have great expectations for the innovation brought by new technologies. However, ordinary people do not seem to be very interested in these technologies. They prefer to get benefits from blockchain technologies, so more people still learn blockchain because of currency speculation, The threshold to enter the blockchain instry itself is very high. Basically, in the early stage, it was the technology God that entered. Later, some financial practitioners with foresight entered the instry through the currency circle, and then the capital market led by 3M poured into bitcoin and Leyte, which gave birth to the whole bull market of digital currency, Then we knew everything about it, which triggered a new crowd financing, which gave rise to the bubble and then returned to the present value. p>
the result of this round of market is to let the people of the world realize what blockchain is and what blockchain can change. Some scholars and experts really participate in the blockchain instry, drive the whole economic system to study blockchain technology, and directly establish the blockchain instry as the general trend in the next 5-10 years. It seems that ordinary investors can only invest in digital currency, which makes it easier for them to overtake on the curve of wealth. Therefore, if we love the coin circle, we should cultivate it deeply, because the existence of the coin circle has become a trend, and it is a sunrise instry at least. On the contrary, if you are curious about blockchain technology, you should also practice it well. In the future, central enterprises, state-owned enterprises and listed companies will need talents who understand blockchain. It's better to understand the code together. In any case, it will be easier to make money in the tide of trend. Choice is more important than struggle
market analysis
bitcoin:
6600 did not break down effectively yesterday. Your breakthrough selling point in yesterday's hour chart is a good application. Look at the chart:
< img Src=“ https://iknow-pic.cdn.bcebos.com/a2cc7cd98d1001e9c8925f8cb40e7bec55e79783 "/ >from the day before yesterday, Bitcoin continues to gain support in the important position of 6600. As you can see, the trading volume that touched 6600 before was relatively large. Yesterday's small trading volume falling below 6600 platform support is not an effective breakthrough, and it does not constitute the large volume falling below. Therefore, it is a false breakthrough, so it was pulled back soon after falling below 6600. From the trading volume of the big Yang line, Similarly, it is not big, which indicates that bulls only hold the key point for a short time and have no ability to reverse the trend
bitcoin has come out of a small bottom. Yesterday, it was said that if 6600 stands, bitcoin will have a concussive rebound at this position. However, it is expected that the rebound will be limited, just extending the time of decline. Therefore, the market has stabilized 6600 for three consecutive days and established a small bottom of 6600
judging from today's rebound trading volume, it is still insufficient, so the short-term rebound range will not be too large. The strong pressure level above is around 7700, and the energy of bulls in this round is limited, so 7700 is regarded as the rebound limit for the time being, and the big downward trend still remains unchanged, There are local opportunities in the short term. The position should still be below 30%
eth:
like the daily line, bitcoin has almost established a small bottom, which will be accompanied by a certain rebound, but the overall situation will not be very strong, so it is still a linked market. The specific analysis method has been given to you yesterday, using the K-line of various currencies and bitcoin to make a comparison, and then select those currencies that are willing to operate, and find out the currencies that are likely to rise, Only the large market value currency is valid for the K line of usdt
ADA, xvg:
yesterday, I compared the two charts with the trend of bitcoin, and gave the conclusion that the main force of xvg is willing to control the price of bitcoin in the short term, so the independent market of xvg rose continuously yesterday and today. This is a good case of converting the chart into language through the technical analysis of disk. If you can draw such a conclusion through the comparison, I believe the probability of making money will increase greatly. The same is true of ADA. If we compare it with March 18, bitcoin has fallen far below the low point of 3.18, while ADA is still hovering and stabilizing at 3.18, which is also a signal for the main force to enter. However, by comparing with xvg, we can draw the conclusion that ADA is long-term and xvg is short-term hot money behavior. If someone ambushes xvg after reading the article yesterday, they can hold the money along the 5-day line for the time being. The coordination of quantity and price is not bad, and the washing up is quite sufficient. They have the will to continue to rush up
LTC:
take out the diagram and compare it with BTC to understand why linkage has been mentioned all the time. Let's not talk about it. It's still two words: linkage
in the past two days, the price of currency has not been speculated, and some teams have begun to do the same trick again, forking out candy. No, OMG and BTG are clamoring to fork out and give forked currency. However, it is difficult for these news to stimulate the price of currency again. After all, what they split out is not a star project, so it is difficult for people to have the desire to buy currency for candy. So this kind of message can be evaluated as neutral
recently, some currencies cooperating with large companies have gone well. If you want to speculate, you can think along this main line. If you want to find relevant information and do some latent work, you may have good short-term opportunities
there are not many other things to talk about. The money making effect is still not strong. mining and hoarding money are the main factors. Generally speaking, the trend of money price is weak. The bear market makes money, and the bull market makes money. Digging money is more suitable for the current market than frying money. Now we know that the decline of money price leads to the decline of mining machinery. Once the money price recovers, the mining machinery will rise in a positive proportion, so we can rest assured to invest in digging money. After all, if the currency price exceeds 7700, don't keep catching up. It's easy to lose more than gain
1. The factor of investment supply and demand is actually not independent, and investors' demand for digital currency is also affected by various news factors. However, from the price surge of last year, in the absence of obvious policy and other news, The admission of investors and investment institutions will also promote the price growth
2. Policy factors are also important factors affecting the price of digital red packets. In the past, the implementation and formulation of policies in South Korea, Japan, the United States and China have affected the price trend of bitcoin
3. The real financial factors and the instability of the real financial world make the demand for digital assets rise from time to time. For example, the Chinese government's policy adjustment, the brexit of the UK, the setback of the global stock market at the beginning of 2018 and other events all give play to the hedging characteristics of digital currency
4. Technical factors. Although the security of digital currency has been highly respected in its development, several technical crises still occurred in its development history. For example, bitfinex, the largest bitcoin dollar exchange, was attacked by hackers and stole 120000 bitcoin, and bitcoin fell by 25% in the following six trading days
5. Good news and bad news will affect the fluctuation of currency value
6. The market trend will be affected by the actions of the leading enterprises in this field, platforms, digital currencies with large market share, leaders with great influence in the market, etc
besides, choosing a good project can avoid risks to a certain extent. For example, HNB, the next generation of decentralized blockchain economy, is a reliable project. It relies on the real economy, and at the same time uses value exchange to continuously create endogenous value. It uses blockchain to build an economy, so that everyone can participate in it and get returns through labor, instead of relying on currency speculation.
this division of cognition not only helps us understand digital currency, but also guides our behavior in the process of investment. So I'm going to analyze this topic in two or three articles
from the perspective of cognition, I divide all digital currencies into the following three categories:
the first category is that their value and consensus have been strongly recognized, almost indisputable, and have been transmitted from within the circle to outside the circle. This kind of currency is the least in the whole field of digital currency
this kind of currency typically includes bitcoin and Taiwan dollar. Bitcoin is recognized as "digital gold" and has repeatedly shown the characteristics of "sea calming needle" when the external political and economic environment is unstable; The profit model of platform currency is clear, especially the top three platform currencies have solid cash flow and income relying on the exchange
when talking about this kind of currency, both their consensus and value are highly recognized in the instry, and ordinary people can understand it outside the instry
when we talk about bitcoin with ordinary people, as long as we tell them that gold goes up, bitcoin goes up; When talking about platform currency with ordinary people, just tell them that platform currency is equivalent to the stock of securities companies, and they will immediately understand what we are talking about
although some people outside the instry do not agree with some consensus (for example, some people still do not agree with the value of bitcoin), this does not prevent ordinary people from understanding what we are talking about
the second type is that consensus has been reached, but the actual use value is still being proved, or the so-called "use value" can not show us the actual effect for the time being. This kind of currency is slightly more than the first kind, but also very few in the whole field of digital currency
this kind of currency typically includes Ethereum, EOS and cross chain projects in the field of smart contract
take Ethereum and EOS for example, they are highly expected by the instry. We hope to see that their smart contract function can proce killer applications and bring higher efficiency and lower cost to our daily life
in the past two years, Ethereum has developed a highly concerned defi Ecology (defi, decentralized finance, often referred to as distributed finance or decentralized Finance) in the instry
however, does this ecology have a direct relationship with the life of ordinary people or bring direct benefits? In fact, it does not exist at all. It is still a "niche ecology" in a small circle, far away from our daily life
the ecosystem developed by EOS in the past two years is far from the areas where we expect to bring value into play, and even there are not many people in the instry who pay attention to it
the concept of cross chain project is very novel when it first came out, and it is also considered by the instry to have great potential demand. But after a period of discussion, some people began to question whether this demand really exists
the instry has a consensus, or even a high consensus, on these currencies, but their current value is not satisfactory. Therefore, even if they are recognized by the instry, it is difficult for this consensus to be transmitted outside the instry, not to mention that ordinary people can understand these consensus and values
so we can't talk with ordinary people about what "defi" and "cross chain" are and what's the use
the third category is the currency whose consensus is still in the process of forming. The design objectives and scenarios of this kind of currency may not be understood or recognized by the instry, or even there are great differences in understanding. Their value is even more difficult to judge. This kind of currency accounts for the vast majority of the current market.