Financial innovation of digital currency

The globalization process of digital currency is still progressing steadily. All countries are trying to develop their own blockchain applications and have great expectations for the innovation brought by new technologies. However, ordinary people do not seem to be very interested in these technologies. They prefer to get benefits from blockchain technologies, so more people still learn blockchain because of currency speculation, The threshold to enter the blockchain instry itself is very high. Basically, in the early stage, it was the technology God that entered. Later, some financial practitioners with foresight entered the instry through the currency circle, and then the capital market led by 3M poured into bitcoin and Leyte, which gave birth to the whole bull market of digital currency, Then we knew everything about it, which triggered a new crowd financing, which gave rise to the bubble and then returned to the present value. p>

the result of this round of market is to let the people of the world realize what blockchain is and what blockchain can change. Some scholars and experts really participate in the blockchain instry, drive the whole economic system to study blockchain technology, and directly establish the blockchain instry as the general trend in the next 5-10 years. It seems that ordinary investors can only invest in digital currency, which makes it easier for them to overtake on the curve of wealth. Therefore, if we love the coin circle, we should cultivate it deeply, because the existence of the coin circle has become a trend, and it is a sunrise instry at least. On the contrary, if you are curious about blockchain technology, you should also practice it well. In the future, central enterprises, state-owned enterprises and listed companies will need talents who understand blockchain. It's better to understand the code together. In any case, it will be easier to make money in the tide of trend. Choice is more important than struggle

market analysis

bitcoin:

6600 did not break down effectively yesterday. Your breakthrough selling point in yesterday's hour chart is a good application. Look at the chart:

from the day before yesterday, Bitcoin continues to gain support in the important position of 6600. As you can see, the trading volume that touched 6600 before was relatively large. Yesterday's small trading volume falling below 6600 platform support is not an effective breakthrough, and it does not constitute the large volume falling below. Therefore, it is a false breakthrough, so it was pulled back soon after falling below 6600. From the trading volume of the big Yang line, Similarly, it is not big, which indicates that bulls only hold the key point for a short time and have no ability to reverse the trend

bitcoin has come out of a small bottom. Yesterday, it was said that if 6600 stands, bitcoin will have a concussive rebound at this position. However, it is expected that the rebound will be limited, just extending the time of decline. Therefore, the market has stabilized 6600 for three consecutive days and established a small bottom of 6600

judging from today's rebound trading volume, it is still insufficient, so the short-term rebound range will not be too large. The strong pressure level above is around 7700, and the energy of bulls in this round is limited, so 7700 is regarded as the rebound limit for the time being, and the big downward trend still remains unchanged, There are local opportunities in the short term. The position should still be below 30%

eth:

like the daily line, bitcoin has almost established a small bottom, which will be accompanied by a certain rebound, but the overall situation will not be very strong, so it is still a linked market. The specific analysis method has been given to you yesterday, using the K-line of various currencies and bitcoin to make a comparison, and then select those currencies that are willing to operate, and find out the currencies that are likely to rise, Only the large market value currency is valid for the K line of usdt

ADA, xvg:

yesterday, I compared the two charts with the trend of bitcoin, and gave the conclusion that the main force of xvg is willing to control the price of bitcoin in the short term, so the independent market of xvg rose continuously yesterday and today. This is a good case of converting the chart into language through the technical analysis of disk. If you can draw such a conclusion through the comparison, I believe the probability of making money will increase greatly. The same is true of ADA. If we compare it with March 18, bitcoin has fallen far below the low point of 3.18, while ADA is still hovering and stabilizing at 3.18, which is also a signal for the main force to enter. However, by comparing with xvg, we can draw the conclusion that ADA is long-term and xvg is short-term hot money behavior. If someone ambushes xvg after reading the article yesterday, they can hold the money along the 5-day line for the time being. The coordination of quantity and price is not bad, and the washing up is quite sufficient. They have the will to continue to rush up

LTC:

take out the diagram and compare it with BTC to understand why linkage has been mentioned all the time. Let's not talk about it. It's still two words: linkage

in the past two days, the price of currency has not been speculated, and some teams have begun to do the same trick again, forking out candy. No, OMG and BTG are clamoring to fork out and give forked currency. However, it is difficult for these news to stimulate the price of currency again. After all, what they split out is not a star project, so it is difficult for people to have the desire to buy currency for candy. So this kind of message can be evaluated as neutral

recently, some currencies cooperating with large companies have gone well. If you want to speculate, you can think along this main line. If you want to find relevant information and do some latent work, you may have good short-term opportunities

there are not many other things to talk about. The money making effect is still not strong. mining and hoarding money are the main factors. Generally speaking, the trend of money price is weak. The bear market makes money, and the bull market makes money. Digging money is more suitable for the current market than frying money. Now we know that the decline of money price leads to the decline of mining machinery. Once the money price recovers, the mining machinery will rise in a positive proportion, so we can rest assured to invest in digging money. After all, if the currency price exceeds 7700, don't keep catching up. It's easy to lose more than gain

Digital currency is an unregulated and digital currency, which is usually issued and managed by developers and accepted and used by members of a specific virtual community. More generally speaking, digital currency is actually a commodity

just like gold, it took more than 200 years to be graally recognized by the world. In the early days, many people questioned gold's ability to store value. If we take digital currency as a substitute, people's questioning attitude towards gold in the past is equivalent to many people's attitude towards digital currency now

extended data

digital currency is a balance between financial security and innovation ability. Financial instry should have clear access threshold. Digital currency involves finance, so it must have clear access threshold. The enterprise qualification of blockchain and digital currency needs to be reviewed and an access system set. One of the core of supervision is that blockchain enterprises must have qualified technical personnel

for example, enterprises of different levels in the construction instry need different levels and numbers of registered structural engineers to ensure the safety of buildings and bridges, which can also be used for reference in the supervision of digital currency. In addition, investors need to refer to the requirements of the "measures for the appropriateness of securities and futures investors" issued by the CSRC, and only those who meet certain conditions can participate in the investment

At present, there are mainly two regulations about virtual currency in China. In 2013, many ministries and commissions issued the notice on prevention of bitcoin risk, giving important tips on bitcoin risk. On September 4, 2017, the central bank and other seven ministries and commissions jointly announced again that the first token issue was an unauthorized illegal financing

1、 According to the quantity theory of original money, the demand for money in economy is directly proportional to the trade volume of goods, which can be expressed as Fisher's money trade equation: mv-pq
where m is the quantity of money, V is the speed of money circulation, P is the price of goods, q is the volume of goods transactions, and PQ proct is the volume of goods transactions in a certain period. It can be seen that the earliest definition of the velocity of money circulation is the average number of times a unit of money is used in a year, so it is also called the velocity of money transaction< From 1960s to 1970s, the monetarist school headed by Friedman developed the theory of money quantity. The new theory of money quantity has the following equation: MV = py, where py refers to nominal money income, With this change, the speed of money circulation also has a new meaning: the average number of unit money turnover (including the whole process of reproction) in a certain period of time. Therefore, it is also known as the velocity of money income circulation
it can be seen from the above model that the two are basically unified in principle, and the main difference between them is that the former originates from the function of money as a means of transaction to explain the speed of money circulation; The latter is explained by the function of money storage means (permanent income). According to the theory of money equilibrium, the condition of money market equilibrium is Ms = MD, so the velocity of money circulation V has a direct relationship with the amount of money supply. As we all know, M2 is composed of M1 and quasi money (M2 & # 8722; M1 corresponds to the transaction function of currency, and quasi currency corresponds to the storage function of currency. By combining the two, we can get the general formula of money circulation speed as follows:
m2v = GDP (1)
2. The influence of financial innovation on money circulation speed
1. The influence of financial innovation on the definition and division of money
from the perspective of the whole development of money, it is generally believed that money has gone through the stage of simple commodity money, precious metal money, precious metal money and so on There are four stages: symbolic currency stage and electronic currency stage. In terms of its value as currency and the value it contains, each stage has many forms, such as physical currency, metal currency, credit currency, electronic currency, digital currency, etc. (among them, digital cash is the higher stage form of the development of electronic currency). The rapid development of financial innovation makes the definition of currency increasingly difficult. What is money? According to the traditional definition of money, money is a special commodity which is generally accepted by the public as a general equivalent. Marx and some contemporary mainstream economists think that "money is a kind of social relationship"; However, Milton Friedman and mankun, a young professor of Harvard University and a new Keynesian economist, said that "money is a group of assets that people often use to buy other people's goods and services in the economy."; Simmel, a sociologist, regards money as "the common denominator of all values" and "the cashing of values": "money is the materialization of exchange activities between people, and it is the embodiment of a pure function." Economists and sociologists have been puzzled for a long time on the issue of understanding and grasping what money is, especially financial innovation makes the extension of money more and more extensive, so the definition of money is more and more complex
after the financial innovation, especially the innovation of a large number of financial business, many new accounts have emerged. The emergence of these accounts makes the traditional division of money supply levels confused. For example, new accounts such as now, ATS and mmda all have the function of issuing cheques, which are similar to current deposits and should be transferred to M1, but most of the balance of these accounts is placed in investment savings accounts, In fact, it should belong to m2. Due to the similar financial innovation, countries have constantly revised the division of money supply levels. The United Kingdom has eight money supply indicators, such as M1, M2, m3, DCE, PSL1 and PSL2. From 1970 to 1984, the definition of money was revised nine times. During 1971-1984, the United States revised the definition of money seven times, and the money supply index has developed to M1, M2, m3, l and debt. Despite frequent modifications, the problems brought about by financial innovation have not been completely solved, such as electronic accounts, multi-functional credit cards and online payment accounts, and so on. Therefore, financial innovation makes it more difficult to define the definition and level division of money, which directly affects the analysis and measurement of money circulation speed
2. The relationship between money circulation speed and money multiplier
money multiplier refers to the credit expansion multiple generated by the money supply derived from the deposit creation function of commercial banks on the basis of base money (high-energy money). Under a certain nominal GDP, there is an inverse relationship between money multiplier B and money circulation speed v. that is to say, under a certain output level, when money circulation speed increases, money multiplier decreases; vice versa. Therefore, to analyze the impact of financial innovation on the speed of money circulation, as long as we find out the factors that affect the money multiplier, we can draw the corresponding conclusions
3. From the perspective of the modified money multiplier, the impact of financial innovation on the speed of money circulation
financial innovation has had a profound impact on the definition of money and the division of money levels. With the increasing variety of financial instruments, great changes have taken place in the supply of money with different liquidity, such as cash in circulation and various deposits. The influence of financial innovation on various factors of monetary multiplier is as follows< With the development of electronic technology, the development of electronic money will become the mainstream of money. Lending, consumption and transfer between economies will all be settled through the Internet, and check and cash settlement will graally decrease. In particular, digital cash is an advanced form of e-money developed on the basis of the graal deepening of bank deposit transfer payment instruments and the graal crowding out of cash currency. It is the proct of the continuous development and evolution of various types of e-money, such as physical money, precious metal money, substitute symbol money (paper money) and so on With a series of advantages such as unlimited segmentation, real value, convenience and exchangeability, it can be inferred that the influence of digital cash on the evolution of currency form will make digital cash occupy some forms of cash currency, paper currency and deposit currency, and graally become one of the most important currency forms in the future digital currency era, It is the best substitute for cash, paper currency and deposit currency. Therefore, since its inception, it has rapidly occupied the position of various forms of e-money in the early development of digital cash in cash and deposit currency, and has come from behind. It is not difficult to infer that with the increase of the contribution rate of the digital economy to the overall economic growth, the demand of the real economy for the current cash and paper currency will be greatly reced to a small amount e to the graal crowding out of the digital cash, the digital cash will be widely popular, and most of the settlement temporary deposit currency will be graally transformed into the form of digital cash, A small number of them will still exist in the form of card type electronic currency and deposit transfer type electronic currency, but they will graally transform into digital cash
2) the impact of financial innovation on monetary level and monetary multiplier
financial innovation makes the traditional division of monetary level more and more vague, the transaction cost of various currencies is lower and lower, and there are more and more monetary levels, such as now account, ATS account, etc. Especially in the financial markets of western countries, e to the continuous innovation of financial procts and the increasing number of financial procts, financial innovative procts with different liquidity act as the medium of commodity exchange to varying degrees. It became de facto money. In this way, the scale of money supply is constantly expanding. Here, we can introce a quantity of replaceable financial assets that can act as a monetary medium under the financial innovation, that is, adding a quantity MC to the money supply, so the money supply under the financial innovation is:
m = C + Dr + DT + CE + MC (4)
the influence of financial innovation on the currency circulation speed can be explained from different aspects, including the rection of cash leakage rate, the decrease of cash flow rate, the increase of cash flow rate and the decrease of cash flow rate The increase of the proportion of alternative financial assets and the decrease of the excess reserve ratio will rece the speed of currency circulation, while the proportion of digital cash in current deposits will accelerate the speed of currency circulation. Generally speaking, e to the strong liquidity of digital cash and demand deposits, it is unlikely to proce a greater mutual substitution in a certain period of time (but CE will increase in the long run). Therefore, we should investigate the currency circulation speed or currency multiplier change in a certain period of time. The general trend is that financial innovation makes the currency multiplier increase and the circulation speed decrease
Third, the empirical test of China's money circulation speed and money multiplier changes
China's financial innovation started late, so the level of financial innovation is still at a low level compared with western countries. But in recent years, with the acceleration of China's financial system reform, financial innovation has also achieved phased development. In particular, the technological innovation brought by the application of electronic technology and the institutional innovation in the financial system reform have made great achievements. At present, financial procts are more abundant, and the pace of financial market-oriented reform is faster and faster. These measures will undoubtedly have a certain impact on China's currency circulation speed. The following uses the relevant data of China's money circulation speed and money multiplier from the 1990s to 2005 to make an empirical test on the above theories. The change trend of money circulation speed and money multiplier is shown in the figure. From the test data, in recent years, there is a reverse relationship between the velocity of money circulation and money multiplier in China, which is basically consistent with the theoretical relationship; At the same time, the test results basically meet the development trend of financial innovation, especially in recent years, the pace of financial innovation has accelerated, the speed of money circulation and the change of money multiplier has accelerated