The influence of digital currency on central bank's monetary
The digital RMB red envelope of 10 million yuan issued by Shenzhen city has brought the development of e-money back to the people's vision
in fact, since April 2020, small-scale pilot projects of digital RMB have been carried out in Shenzhen, Cheng, Suzhou and xiong'an, and the pilot scale will be expanded to 28 provinces and cities in August 2020
as a socially recognized "super outlet", in addition to the high investment of digital currency related enterprises, its impact on the financial market is also of great research value
Policy evolution of the development of digital RMBas early as 2014, the central bank has concted research layout on digital RMB, and discussed the development framework of digital RMB with major international financial institutions and research institutions in the 2016 digital currency seminar
after six years of development, China has initially developed the "pbctfp blockchain platform" and continuously promoted the pilot activities of digital RMB. It can be predicted that as today's technology and policy outlet, digital RMB will have excellent development prospects and extremely fast development speed in the next few years
Figure 1: Policy Evolution of digital RMB
with the improvement of China's national strength, digital RMB provides an opportunity to establish a "new system of RMB cross border settlement", which can promote RMB payment activities around the world and realize the internationalization of RMB
CBDC. How to participate? Including the following two cases, let's take Kazakhstan as an example. The first is that Kazakhstan can issue RMB denominated Kazakh government bonds. The issuer is Kazakhstan, but the RMB denominated bonds are sovereign bonds for Kazakhstan, which can also be sold to the Central Bank of China in exchange for CBDC. The second is that Kazakhstan issues treasury bonds denominated in its own currency, which are issued by Kazakhstan and priced in its own currency. This method is the easiest for Kazakhstan, because this is their own national debt, which is sold to the Central Bank of China, which gives it CBDC. The similarities between the two lie in that they both sell treasury bonds to the Central Bank of China, but the issuers of treasury bonds are not the same, and the pricing currencies of treasury bonds are not the same, so the requirements for Kazakhstan are not the same. In theory, these ways can be used as a political tool to influence and regulate the relationship between the Chinese government and Kazakhstan<
4 digital currency will become the biggest magic weapon of RMB internationalization
China is now facing the biggest challenge, in terms of currency, in fact, the internationalization of RMB. The monetary settlement system based on US dollar has brought great problems to the decision-makers outside the US dollar. The best way to rece the status of US dollar is to replace us dollar with a global digital currency to end the dominant advantage of US dollar. The Chinese version of CBDC is likely to become the biggest magic weapon to promote the internationalization of RMB and end the hegemony of US dollar. The opportunity for RMB internationalization lies in the trend of de dollarization. Therefore, we need friendly countries other than US dollars to participate in China's digital currency. Taking the lead in the use of digital currency in block trading and financial settlement to bypass the restrictions on trading in US dollar will certainly realize the development of de dollarization and form a new currency trading system dominated by China and participated by many parties. So how to achieve it? In essence, it is to transfer benefits, so that non dollarized friendly countries can participate in the issuance process of CBDC, and even share the seigniorage of RMB. It is the most effective magic weapon to embody the spirit of democratization and benefit sharing of blockchain and bitcoin in the design of sovereign currency, which is also the most practical way to realize the internationalization of RMB.
unlike virtual currencies such as bitcoin, central bank digital currency is a legal currency issued by the central bank, encrypted and supported by national credit. The media mentioned that at present, the research and development of the prototype system of legal digital currency is in progress. As for when to launch China's legal digital currency, Yao Qian said that there is no timetable Netease)
it is certain that the advent of the central bank's version of digital currency will have a great impact on cryptocurrencies such as special currency and Leyte currency. In the future, the form of these digital currencies may graally evolve, just like the tokens launched by the European crowdfunding platform, as a kind of asset certificate.
the central bank has now made it clear that it will issue digital currency, and has completed two revisions. Of course, the digital currency to be issued by the central bank is different from the tokens launched by bitcoin, Leyte and European crowdfunding platforms. The digital currency issued by the central bank has the property of currency.
Digital currency is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, the blockchain technology it relies on has been decentralized and can be used in other fields besides digital currency , which is one of the reasons why bitcoin is popular; On the other hand, if digital currency is widely used by the public as a kind of currency, it will have a huge impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy, financial infrastructure, financial market, financial stability and so on. Specific Wu Xiaoxia:
1. Impact on monetary policy
if digital currency is widely accepted and can play the role of currency, it will weaken the effectiveness of monetary policy and bring difficulties to policy-making
because digital currency issuers are usually unregulated third parties, money is created outside the banking system, and the amount of circulation depends entirely on the wishes of the issuers, which will lead to the instability of money supply. In addition, the authorities are unable to monitor the issuance and circulation of digital currency, which will lead to the inability to accurately judge the economic operation and bring trouble to policy-making, At the same time, it will weaken the effectiveness of policy transmission and implementation
2. Impact on financial infrastructure. The use of distributed ledgers also poses challenges to trading, clearing and settlement, as it promotes the disintermediation of traditional service providers in different markets and infrastructures. These changes may have potential impacts on market infrastructure other than retail payment systems, such as large payment systems, securities settlement systems or trading databases
3. The impact on financial intermediation and financial market in a broad sense. As a financial intermediary, banks perform the ties of acting supervisors and supervise borrowers on behalf of depositors
generally, banks also carry out liquidity and maturity conversion business to realize the financing from depositors to borrowers. If digital currency and distributed ledger are widely used, any subsequent disintermediation may have an impact on savings or credit evaluation mechanisms
4. The impact of security risks and financial stability
assuming that digital currency is recognized by the public, its use increases significantly and replaces legal currency to a certain extent, negative events such as network attacks on user terminals related to digital currency will lead to currency fluctuations, which will have an impact on the financial order and the real economy
in addition, the virtual currency based on blockchain technology is usually held by a few people at the beginning. For example, the first purchase of bitcoin in May 2010 was $25 pizza purchased by 10000 BTC, and the price of each bitcoin rose to $1200 in more than three years by the end of 2013
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Amazon will launch digital currency project in Mexico. Amazon is recruiting software development managers for digital and emerging payments (DEP) to develop new payment procts that will enable customers to convert cash into digital currency
the digital and emerging payments sector intends to launch the proct in Mexico first. The follow-up will be extended to Brazil and India. It is reported that the digital currency project will completely focus on payment services in emerging markets
e-cash flow still flows through the central bank and financial institutions to enterprises and indivials, which is identical with paper money in terms of money creation channels, circulation links and functions, and does not break away from the scope of traditional monetary policy regulation. The main function of e-cash is to facilitate transaction payment
considering that the development of non cash payment methods such as third-party payment has greatly facilitated transaction payment in recent years, the impact of e-cash on money transaction demand is limited, and the overall impact on monetary policy is not significant. The extent to which e-cash is accepted by the public depends on its convenience and security.