The influence of cryptocurrency on US dollar
digital currency is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, the blockchain technology it relies on has been decentralized and can be used in other fields besides digital currency , which is one of the reasons why bitcoin is popular; On the other hand, if digital currency is widely used by the public as a kind of currency, it will have a huge impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy, financial infrastructure, financial market, financial stability and so on. Specific Wu Xiaoxia:
1. Impact on monetary policy
if digital currency is widely accepted and can play the role of currency, it will weaken the effectiveness of monetary policy and bring difficulties to policy-making
because digital currency issuers are usually unregulated third parties, money is created outside the banking system, and the amount of circulation depends entirely on the wishes of the issuers, which will lead to the instability of money supply. In addition, the authorities are unable to monitor the issuance and circulation of digital currency, which will lead to the inability to accurately judge the economic operation and bring trouble to policy-making, At the same time, it will weaken the effectiveness of policy transmission and implementation
2. Impact on financial infrastructure. The use of distributed ledgers also poses challenges to trading, clearing and settlement, as it promotes the disintermediation of traditional service providers in different markets and infrastructures. These changes may have potential impacts on market infrastructure other than retail payment systems, such as large payment systems, securities settlement systems or trading databases
3. The impact on financial intermediation and financial market in a broad sense. As a financial intermediary, banks perform the ties of acting supervisors and supervise borrowers on behalf of depositors
generally, banks also carry out liquidity and maturity conversion business to realize the financing from depositors to borrowers. If digital currency and distributed ledger are widely used, any subsequent disintermediation may have an impact on savings or credit evaluation mechanisms
4. The impact of security risks and financial stability
assuming that digital currency is recognized by the public, its use increases significantly and replaces legal currency to a certain extent, negative events such as network attacks on user terminals related to digital currency will lead to currency fluctuations, which will have an impact on the financial order and the real economy
in addition, the virtual currency based on blockchain technology is usually held by a few people at the beginning. For example, the first purchase of bitcoin in May 2010 was $25 pizza purchased by 10000 BTC, and the price of each bitcoin rose to $1200 in more than three years by the end of 2013
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extended materials
Amazon will launch digital currency project in Mexico. Amazon is recruiting software development managers for digital and emerging payments (DEP) to develop new payment procts that will enable customers to convert cash into digital currency
the digital and emerging payments sector intends to launch the proct in Mexico first. The follow-up will be extended to Brazil and India. It is reported that the digital currency project will completely focus on payment services in emerging markets
At present, the status of RMB is constantly rising. Many countries have begun to abandon the US dollar and use RMB to price oil, but it will not shake the petrodollar system. Although RMB can be used to price oil transactions now, it still needs a long way to go to become an international one and completely break the petrodollar system, It's going to take a long time. But it has no effect on digital currency, because many countries do not recognize digital currency. Now the world is mainly based on the currency of the Committee. The appreciation of RMB has a great impact on the domestic market, and even leads to inflation. After promotion, it is even less valuable. However, with the rise of RMB, Can let us the influence of RMB, can let all the people in the country on the mobile phone can exchange, this is very convenient{ RRR} in this case, cash will only be less and less, replaced by the rise of digital currency. But the rise of digital RMB will not affect the status of the United States now
It is almost impossible for bitcoin to become a global currency
taking China as an example, the main means of the central bank to regulate the economy are monetary policy, fiscal policy and exchange rate policy. The global use of bitcoin means that all countries lose their economic initiative. Once the economy is in recession, the central bank can not use the expansionary monetary policy to stimulate the economy. Once the international trade is in a disadvantageous position, it can not use the exchange rate policy to adjust the balance of payments. It's fatal for the country
However, it is the general trend that digital currency will replace paper currency. Therefore, in order to ensure the central bank's ability to intervene in the economy, countries are likely to introce their own digital currency to replace paper money. That is to say, RMB is paperless, unified digital transaction, and US dollar is paperless, digital transaction is carried out, and then digital RMB is linked to us dollar exchange ratefor a long time, the hot digital currency can and can only be the investment target. At present, digital currency is set up by private indivials, no country will allow currency issuance rights to remain in the hands of a single person . Bitcoin is not even as good as Ethereum at this point - we don't even know who Nakamoto is. Although the Federal Reserve is privately owned, it is the proct of the combination of American commercial banks and the anonymous creation of bitcoin by Nakamoto
therefore, from this perspective, it is likely that the currencies of various countries will graally become paperless and digital in the future. In the future, it is not impossible to form a set of global digital currencies on the basis of the main digital currencies of various countries and with reference to the idea of SDR
after the currency digitization, the impact on China is actually small. At present, China's third-party payment is very developed, and the utilization rate of paper money is graally declining, so it has a good foundation to be a digital currency. Third party payment in Europe and the United States is weaker, and Japan lags far behind in this step. This means that Japan will have more resistance to the implementation of digital currency