Number of currency overruns

1. The impact of excess liquidity on China's economic environment can be roughly divided into the following stages:
the first stage is that monetary easing in the first half of the 1990s led to hyperinflation in the short market environment< The second stage of BR / > is from 90s to 03 and 04 years. During this period, the problem of inflation was alleviated effectively by the increase of capacity and supply, while higher return on investment absorbed excess liquidity and asset bubbles did not appear in large scale.
in the third stage, after 2005, the return on investment of export sector and traditional manufacturing sector began to decline, and the asset price rose sharply< The fourth stage of BR / > is characterized by asset bubbles and high inflation. At the same time, the danger of liquidity overflowing is more and more obvious to the economy and society. Asset bubbles and high inflation are in response to macroeconomic regulation and control policies, and economic policies begin to face the pressure of continuous passive tightening. In the past two decades, China's total broad money has expanded from 2 trillion yuan in the early 1990s to 70 trillion yuan. The total money has expanded 35 times, with an average annual growth rate of 21%, twice the growth rate of real GDP. Before 2009, the scale of M2 relative to nominal GDP has been maintained at a stable level of about 150%. Since 2009, the fiscal and monetary easing has led to the relative scale of M2 rising to 175%, which is far higher than that in developed regions such as Europe and the United States, but also higher than that in emerging markets such as India and Brazil, as well as Japan and South Korea, which also focus on indirect bank financing. Judging from the fact that the dependence of domestic economic growth on investment and credit is increasing, and the government's leading ability to the total amount of social credit is still very strong, it is speculated that China will not have the situation of credit stagnation and deflation like Japan's, and it has become an inevitable trend that the scale of money will continue to expand in the future

direct harm 1: inflation
inflation has become one of the biggest challenges in China's economic development. According to the view of monetarism, inflation is a monetary phenomenon whenever and wherever. The implication is that as long as the issue of money exceeds the market value of all commodities, inflation is inevitable. As far as China is concerned, excessive currency issuance is obviously one of the important factors leading to the increasingly severe inflation problem< In the latest global economic research report, UBS pointed out that China's CPI inflation is mainly driven by the prices of food, especially vegetables, and is not obviously the result of currency over issuance. UBS expects the year-on-year growth rate of CPI to reach about 5% in November, but it will fall slightly in December
management can and should play a key role in controlling inflation expectations, preventing food price inflation from expanding to the overall economic situation, increasing interest rates and liquidity. UBS is expected to raise interest rates once more and two to three times in 2011. It is also expected that the central bank will intensify hedging operations and appropriately rece the credit growth target (6.5-7 trillion yuan of new loans). UBS believes that so far, the rise in CPI has been mainly driven by the rise in food prices, rather than food prices and the "core" inflation rate. Bad weather and natural disasters have affected crops, especially vegetables, so vegetable prices have risen sharply in the past few weeks. In addition, the rise in diesel and transportation costs (the power rationing measures led many enterprises to switch to diesel generators, resulting in a "shortage of diesel") led to the rise in prices of other agricultural procts.

2. Their own assets are the liabilities of others

the assets of others are their own liabilities

the price of social prosperity: everyone is surrounded by debts

the wealthier you are, the higher the radius of debt you are exposed to, and the higher the probability of being the richest person to be the first negative person. This is the root of Ma Yun's dream of being subverted

labor income + asset income = GDP, the distribution of GDP: asset income first. For example, if you open a supermarket, you pay the rent first, and then the profits are your own. The result of asset bubbles: asset return requirements are approaching GDP, making labour gains unprofitable. Typical characteristics: start up enterprises (no asset income) generally lose money, college students' salary is not enough to pay expenses, even monthly loss

the root cause of inflation is not the over issuance of money, but the low ratio of money to fixed assets. Think about how much fixed assets people around you have? The average asset of each family is at least 2 million, and how much is the resident's deposit? The answer is about 64 trillion, with a per capita figure of just over 40000. However, the net deposit of residents is only 24 trillion yuan, and the per capita is only more than 20000 yuan. 2 million rent-seeking assets, always thinking about more than 40000 residents' deposits, the result is that it is easy for money to leave their own account, but it will be more and more difficult to return to their own account

the transmission of inflation: 1. The price of house, the rent of bottom traders, the broken bottom traders, the price of procts and services, the cost of living, the wage demand, the wage rise, the enterprise is forced to raise the commodity price (means, upgrade the proct line, eliminate the low-cost proct line)... 2. The price of house, the rent, the survival force the wage rise, the wage rise, the enterprise is forced to raise the commodity price, Business profits were compressed, followed by the increase in commodity prices, the cost of living rose, and wages continued to rise. 3. House prices rose, inflation, psychological security disappeared, people's trust in legal money graally disappeared, social trust was torn, greed was full, and speculation was rampant. 4, houses, labor hours, pork, mobile phone and cars are all commodities. The real estate bubble is the ratio between the house and all goods, and it is robbery in other instries. Inflation is a means for other instries to protect themselves. In short, inflation is a chain reaction and a crisis of trust brought about by unstoppable robbery

inflation will lead to no winners in the whole society, because the foundation of social progress is trust. The real estate bubble has torn a hole in trust, and inflation has made this hole constantly magnified.

3. You see, super hair is certain
first of all, foreign exchange earning seems normal, but it's actually a big part of currency over issuance
in this case, all kinds of buy back operations, the billions of stimulus plan, and the printing of money are all over issued that are not in line with economic development

4. At present, China has adopted several measures:
1. Issue central bank bills to recover money (recover institutional funds)
2. Increase the deposit reserve ratio of commercial banks (recover commercial bank funds)
3. Increase the deposit interest rate (recover private funds)

5. Excess money will lead to inflation, and through the continuous process of inflation, the government can confiscate part of citizens' wealth secretly and unknowingly. I think it's because there are some problems and loopholes in China's currency issuance policy. The main reason is that China exports a large number of procts. After the settlement, the enterprises have a large number of US dollars in their hands, and the central bank issues more RMB equivalent to these US dollars, In exchange for the US dollars in the hands of these enterprises, a large number of base currencies flowed into the market. It's just my personal view, for reference only.

6. In fact, this thing is not what we want to imagine, and in the network, it will work hard for Kangxi

8. In fact, there has been a long-standing domestic dispute over whether there is an over issuance of currency in China. Recently, the management once again said that there is no over issuance of Chinese currency and it should not be measured by Western standards. At the same time, the management believes that the money supply is an abstract concept, and it should mainly look at the three data of price, GDP and employment. The money supply is to find a balance between the three. If the economic development is relatively stable and the price is relatively stable, it can not be asserted that "money over issued"
according to statistics, RMB loans increased by 8.89 trillion yuan in 2013, 687.9 billion yuan more than that of the previous year. In 2013, the growth rate of M2 was 13.6%, and the balance of M2 was 110.65 trillion. In addition, the scale of social financing reached 17.29 trillion in 2013, an increase of 1.53 trillion over the previous year< At present, China is in the "three highs" pattern of high saving rate, high investment rate and high economic growth rate. According to the data released above, although the newly increased amount of RMB loans last year was as high as 8.89 trillion, for the super high social financing scale of 17.29 trillion, we should not unilaterally think that there was the possibility of over issuance of currency last year. Moreover, according to the ratio of M2 / GDP, if we take 2012 as an example, the current balance of M2 is 97.42 trillion and GDP is 51.9 trillion, with the ratio of 1.9:1. In 2013, for example, the balance of M2 has soared to 110.65 trillion, while the GDP growth rate is 7.7%, that is, the annual GDP in 2013 is nearly 56 trillion. By then, the ratio of M2 to GDP will be closer to 2:1. Although the growth rate of M2 balance is much higher than that of GDP, there seems to be a serious sign of currency over issuance. However, in practice, M2 belongs to the stock value, while GDP belongs to the flow value, which is a lack of rigor to assert that there is a serious over issue of money
in spite of this, the author believes that the problem of over issuance of currency in China can never be solved
as mentioned above, China is currently in the "three high" development situation, and is facing the severe test of economic transformation. In recent years, soaring prices and increasing living costs have undoubtedly become the most direct feelings of the people. Therefore, in view of a series of social phenomena, the author puts forward some questions< First, why is China's saving rate so high? According to the management, China's national savings rate is high, and the proportion of indirect financing is also high, which determines that China's total amount of money is relatively high. Indeed, the high savings rate should be a major feature of our country. More often, people are more willing to deposit their funds in banks than to spend actively. However, in view of this phenomenon, I think the most important reason is that the domestic investment channels are very narrow. As the management said, China is in such a situation, that is, the problem of two more and two less“ There are more private funds and less investment channels; There are more small and medium-sized enterprises and less financing channels. " In such an environment, investment in the stock market, the potential risk is huge, capital dare not rush into the market; Although the rate of return on investment in real estate is relatively high in recent years, e to the restrictions of various policies, it is difficult for ordinary people to increase their income with the help of real estate; Investment in other types of investment, but also because of the domestic restrictions too much investment uncertainty. As a result, people are more willing to deposit their funds in banks with relatively high security. With the increase of domestic saving rate, the total demand for money is also moving upward. It should be noted that with the impact of interest rate liberalization, the era of bank savings with high security seems to be facing a change. Therefore, in the future, domestic investment channels must be further broadened, otherwise it will not be able to meet the needs of a large number of funds< Second, is China's economy stable? Are prices relatively stable? According to the recent management, if the economic development is relatively stable and the prices are relatively stable, it can not be asserted that "the currency is over issued". According to the authoritative statistics in China, in the first three quarters of this year, the GDP reached 38.67 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.7% at comparable prices. The annual economic growth target of 7.5% proposed at the beginning of 2013 can be basically achieved. As for the CPI index, which represents the consumer price, recently released the CPI value of 2013. According to statistics, in 2013, the overall level of consumer prices rose by 2.6% over the previous year, far below the annual control target of 3.5%. On the surface, in recent years, the domestic economy and price level seem to have developed reasonably, and the corresponding indicators have been completed. However, from another point of view, there are big loopholes
take China's GDP data as an example, the average growth rate of GDP in the past ten years is as high as 10%. Over the past 35 years, China's GDP has grown by more than 9% on average. However, with the rapid growth of GDP data, China's per capita income growth ranking does not rise but falls. In fact, for a long time in the past, China focused on the development of the investment sector, which accounted for a large proportion in the three major sectors of "investment, consumption and export". However, in the face of low investment efficiency of infrastructure projects, and in line with the past GDP and performance linked system, local governments continue this strange investment disease at all costs. After many years, the effect of investment in promoting the economy will be greatly reced. Moreover, since the reform of the tax sharing system in 1994, the central and local governments have experienced differentiated growth. In the middle and late stage of reform, local finance has been unable to cope with the assessment tasks issued by the central government every year. Therefore, under this pressure, in order to ensure the performance of the local government, the local government graally developed a channel to increase revenue. The real estate instry has been monopolized by local governments in recent years. Finally, the actual growth rate of GDP has more moisture, which is difficult to truly reflect the current economic development
taking China's price index as an example, in recent years, the price of necessities of life has increased significantly. In the past ten years, the growth rate of the price of necessities has far exceeded the growth rate of the average social wage. In the face of the difference between the CPI index and the real price level, the author thinks that the biggest reason is that the proportion of sub CPI is not reasonable. According to the current data, food accounts for the highest weight of the eight statistical categories, accounting for 31.79%. The proportion of residence ranked second, with a ratio of 17.22%. However, according to the domestic statistical methods, the statistics of residence are mainly based on the rental price data, and the rise and fall of house prices do not affect the final rise and fall of CPI. Although house prices can be divided into asset prices, in the context of Chinese style development, if the rise and fall of CPI is determined only by rental prices and other factors, it will be difficult to truly reflect the consumer price level of the society
thirdly, is there a phenomenon of over issuance of money in China? Through the analysis of the above problems, we seem to come to a conclusion that the current domestic economic data is difficult to truly reflect the domestic development situation. If we compare the scale of new loans and social financing mentioned above, some problems will be involved. Taking the scale of social financing as an example, although the current scale is as high as 17.29 trillion, the real estate instry and other major fields account for a huge proportion of the total scale of social financing. Nowadays, local governments monopolize the real estate instry, and the high price of real estate also kidnaps China's economy to a great extent. Is the currency over issued? In essence, there are signs of currency over issuance. However, this sign of currency over issuance is not reflected in the superficial data. According to the basic definition of money over issue, that is, the growth rate of money issue exceeds the growth rate of money demand, and the amount of money issue exceeds the amount of money needed to maintain the normal operation of the economy. Indeed, e to the special economic development pattern in China, the real estate instry and other major fields have monopolized most of the liquidity, and the huge liquidity tied to the real estate and other major markets has not led to the deterioration of inflation and other chaos. At the same time, the amount of money in the past has been unable to fully enter the real economy, and it is difficult to truly reflect the ultimate liquidity to maintain the normal operation of the economy. However, from the point of view of the living pressure of ordinary people, we have deeply felt the pressure cost brought by the excessive currency
the author believes that the fact that the central bank does not recognize the over issuance of money may come from different measurement processes, or it may achieve the purpose of maintaining social stability. However, from the real feelings of ordinary people, the pressure brought about by the over issuance of currency has been very obvious. At present, the social cost of living continues to rise, while the growth rate of wages and other incomes is stagnant, which is a long-term and hard test for ordinary families. Therefore, the management should suit the remedy according to the real situation of the current society, and should not use their own statistical results to make policies blindly.