The impact of trade war on digital currency

1. To put it simply, after trump signed the memoranm of trade dialogue yesterday, Wall Street suffered a bloody wash, US stocks plummeted and the panic index VIX rose significantly. In terms of foreign exchange, the risk averse yen soared: USD / JPY fell below 105, the lowest to 104.62, the lowest level since November 2016. Xu Yaxin, a senior analyst at fx168, said the US / China tensions will curb global trade, push up import prices, rece domestic consumption in both countries, and lead to a global economic slowdown.

2. Trade disputes between China and the United States, also known as Sino US trade war and Sino US trade friction, is an important issue in Sino US economic relations. Trade disputes mainly occur in two aspects: first, China's comparative advantage in the export sector; Second, China has no advantage in the field of import and technological knowledge. The former is basically competitive, while the latter is market-oriented, and their effects on the economic welfare and long-term development of the two countries are different
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3. According to the general financial theory, the value of US dollar is negatively correlated with its net export. That is to say, the net export of US dollars increases and its value decreases, while the net export of US dollars decreases and its value rises

when the United States starts a trade war, it is equivalent to recing the net export of US dollars, so its value will rise

as a relative currency, the value of RMB relative to the US dollar will decline under the circumstances of interest rate increase, tax rection and trade war, that is, there is pressure to depreciate.

4. There is an impact, and the impact is still great
last Friday's trade war started, and the RMB exchange rate and the stock market had a great impact
the US dollar is falling now. You can wait and see for a while.

5. Almost no impact.

6. Overall, it is predicted that the US $50 billion trade war will slow down China's economy by 0.2 percentage points. If the tariff is raised to 30% on average and the field of trade war is expanded, the domestic GDP will be affected by -0.64%; The impact on China's instrial added value is - 1.39%; The impact on employment in China is - 0.55%
but this kind of prediction is only the direct data in theory. The trade war is not just about export competition. The impact of imports similar to ZTE's chips and comprehensive restrictions on cooperation in the high-tech field are even more devastating and cannot be easily estimated.

7. If the trade war is extended to an all-round trade war, it will result in 10% unemployment in China and the United States. The real economy is the general trend of the stock market< However, a comprehensive trade war is unlikely
a local trade war will result in 1% unemployment, which has little impact on the real economy
you should know that the original intention of trade war is to make more money, and then you think of self mutilation
whether we can land or not is still a matter of two opinions. Even if we can land, it's not a big problem
the only thing to worry about is that if one day China and the United States stop trading, maybe the real war will come.

8. In the face of the global financial crisis, all countries will think of various ways to deal with the crisis, instead of doing harm to the economy. In response to the crisis, all countries will take some measures to pay attention to people's economic attention. The direction of diversion may be in some political aspects. Meeting with the Dalai Lama will attract the attention of the American people to pay attention to this matter. Moreover, it is also necessary. Under the overall situation of Sino US cooperation, it is also necessary to make some small moves and frictions. These will not cause major economic fluctuations, but sometimes promote economic development and divert people's attention. The government can take some big actions in some aspects without attracting people's attention. This may arouse the disgust of the Chinese people and cause some decline in the stock market at that time, but it will return to normal later. Dalai's visit to the United States is only a small move of the United States to curb the rise of China. It will not cause too many changes. It is mostly reflected in the protest of the foreign ministry, some abuse of angry youths from netizens, and no economic measures will be taken. How can a small fart Dalai have so much energy to affect China's economy? When the US sells weapons to Taiwan, the foreign ministry will fart and protest. In a word, what to do!!