The influence of digital currency M0 on house price
Publish: 2021-04-15 21:31:46
1. The bad news that affects the price of digital currency is the turbulence of market economy and the high and low prices affected by some news.
2. Digital currency, which is equivalent to a new currency, has nothing to do with house price
for example, if RMB with a face value of 500 is issued, will it affect house price?
for example, if RMB with a face value of 500 is issued, will it affect house price?
3.
In 2020, RMB will depreciate faster than the US dollar, especially in recent days. The depreciation of RMB will certainly have an impact on people's life and house prices. What are the specific impacts
US dollar RMB middle price
according to the trend chart of US dollar RMB middle price, since entering 2020, RMB has indeed continued to depreciate, and the specific trend is as follows
However, if domestic hot money also joins the ranks of house cash out, a large number of houses will be released, and the relationship between supply and demand of real estate will be changed, which will only catalyze the speed of domestic house price rectiontherefore, the depreciation of RMB actually has little impact on house prices. What has a great impact is that it can change the relationship between supply and demand of houses. Only when the relationship between supply and demand changes can it directly affect house prices. As for the depreciation of the RMB will lead to rising or falling house prices is not absolute, according to the supply and demand of the house to decide
summary and analysis
with the devaluation of RMB, the price rises, the cost of overseas investment increases, various costs increase, and the pressure of life increases. At the same time, it will change the relationship between supply and demand of real estate, thus affecting the house price
in short, the depreciation of RMB will cause a lot of effects, which can only be said to have different effects on different things
4. M0 in money refers to the cash in circulation, that is, the cash in circulation outside the banking system, which has strong liquidity. M1 refers to the narrow sense of money supply, reflecting the degree of tightness and changes of residents' and enterprises' funds. It is the leading indicator of business cycle fluctuations, liquidity is second only to M0. M2 is the broad money supply. If M0, M1 and M2 are loose, the economic growth will be stimulated, and its growth will increase with the increase of loose degree, and vice versa. If M0, M1 and M2 are tight, the economic growth will be inhibited, and the degree of inhibition is positively correlated with the degree of monetary tightening. Everything has its limits. Accelerating economic growth is a good thing; But too fast is counterproctive, causing hyperinflation is its biggest disadvantage! Therefore, if the economic growth rate is too fast, it must be reced. The best way to rece it is to tighten the liquidity of money. On the other hand, if the economic growth is too slow, we should release liquidity and graally ease the capital to stimulate the economic growth to return to normal
the stock market will be affected by the cycle fluctuations of M0, M1 and M2, and some fluctuations will occur ahead of time or correspondingly. The main characteristics are as follows: if the monetary policy is graally relaxed, the stock market trend will graally rise and rise; If the currency graally tightens, the trend of the stock market will fall and move downward accordingly.
the stock market will be affected by the cycle fluctuations of M0, M1 and M2, and some fluctuations will occur ahead of time or correspondingly. The main characteristics are as follows: if the monetary policy is graally relaxed, the stock market trend will graally rise and rise; If the currency graally tightens, the trend of the stock market will fall and move downward accordingly.
5. Look at the RMB exchange rate
the RMB exchange rate has depreciated for three consecutive months, and the appreciation part since this year has been completely consumed. And so far, devaluation expectations continue
exchange rate and house price, once one of these two indicators changes, everyone will associate with the old topic of "exchange rate or house price"
why does RMB depreciate so much? What is the impact on the property market
first of all, the central bank has many ways to keep the exchange rate. For example, it consumed a lot of foreign reserves last year, and then added a counter cyclical adjustment factor to the exchange rate calculation. But you see, in such a continuous devaluation, only some non-governmental organizations came out to let the wind blow, but there was basically no supporting statement from important departments and units. So I think this may be intentional
then there is a problem. Continuous external devaluation means that the flow of funds will accelerate, while the amount of funds left at home will decrease. Specific to the property market, the inflow of funds will be reced, and the effect is to rece the pressure of rising house prices
in 2018, both internal and external pressures are relatively large
externally, the trade environment continues to deteriorate, some domestic entities are facing liquidity problems, and bank loans are not enough. The central bank has lowered the reserve requirement three times in the year, and targeted release of liquidity, which also has a certain impact on the property market. Capital flows where there is a gap
internally, although large-scale regulation and control stabilized the real estate market in 2017, in 2018, some second tier cities scrambled for people to ignite the mood of the real estate market. Buying houses, such as speculating in stocks, will rush to wherever there are hot spots, such as Dandong and Xishuangbanna. In the face of these emotions, regulation will certainly increase, but it can't be suppressed
as for whether it will continue to depreciate, the answer is definitely No. Because it basically represents the credit of a country. The devaluation of RMB has objectively had the effect of "purging fire" in terms of domestic property market.
the RMB exchange rate has depreciated for three consecutive months, and the appreciation part since this year has been completely consumed. And so far, devaluation expectations continue
exchange rate and house price, once one of these two indicators changes, everyone will associate with the old topic of "exchange rate or house price"
why does RMB depreciate so much? What is the impact on the property market
first of all, the central bank has many ways to keep the exchange rate. For example, it consumed a lot of foreign reserves last year, and then added a counter cyclical adjustment factor to the exchange rate calculation. But you see, in such a continuous devaluation, only some non-governmental organizations came out to let the wind blow, but there was basically no supporting statement from important departments and units. So I think this may be intentional
then there is a problem. Continuous external devaluation means that the flow of funds will accelerate, while the amount of funds left at home will decrease. Specific to the property market, the inflow of funds will be reced, and the effect is to rece the pressure of rising house prices
in 2018, both internal and external pressures are relatively large
externally, the trade environment continues to deteriorate, some domestic entities are facing liquidity problems, and bank loans are not enough. The central bank has lowered the reserve requirement three times in the year, and targeted release of liquidity, which also has a certain impact on the property market. Capital flows where there is a gap
internally, although large-scale regulation and control stabilized the real estate market in 2017, in 2018, some second tier cities scrambled for people to ignite the mood of the real estate market. Buying houses, such as speculating in stocks, will rush to wherever there are hot spots, such as Dandong and Xishuangbanna. In the face of these emotions, regulation will certainly increase, but it can't be suppressed
as for whether it will continue to depreciate, the answer is definitely No. Because it basically represents the credit of a country. The devaluation of RMB has objectively had the effect of "purging fire" in terms of domestic property market.
6. It must be the rise of house prices. When inflation occurs, the purchasing power of consumers decreases. However, there are too many factors that make house prices in a strong position all the time< House plays a very important role in the traditional concept of Chinese people. Nowadays, most young people buy a house before they get married. The house is a necessity for these people, so as long as they can afford it, they have to borrow money to buy it< Most of the people who buy houses now aim at an investment to keep up with the speed of inflation and keep the value of RMB in their hands. People who can afford to buy houses will not care about the money, let alone the big consortia< First tier cities, Br />
3., we are now looking forward to the big dive in the price. This is an unrealistic idea. I think the price of houses will rise further. The price of the first tier city will still be down, because there are many bubbles, but not too much. Basically, the second tier cities will not drop. Since house prices are rising higher and higher, it's better to buy earlier than later
4. The influence of national policies. In order to curb the overheating of the real estate market, the state has issued many policies. Such as raising interest rates, increasing the down payment for buying a second house, and tightening the loan for second-hand house transactions. The effect is sure to be, but it's not big. The reason I mentioned before is that real estate speculators will not care about this. As long as the income is larger than the investment, why not do it
5. The diving of house prices and the collapse of the real estate market have a huge impact on the national economy, and the state will not allow this situation. In addition, we don't know how many houses a government official owns, but I dare say a lot. These people don't rock themselves in the foot< In the end, let's not forget that the government is also responsible for the rise of house prices. The fact that the land is owned by the state and put up for public auction can strongly prove this point
personal views, for reference only.
3., we are now looking forward to the big dive in the price. This is an unrealistic idea. I think the price of houses will rise further. The price of the first tier city will still be down, because there are many bubbles, but not too much. Basically, the second tier cities will not drop. Since house prices are rising higher and higher, it's better to buy earlier than later
4. The influence of national policies. In order to curb the overheating of the real estate market, the state has issued many policies. Such as raising interest rates, increasing the down payment for buying a second house, and tightening the loan for second-hand house transactions. The effect is sure to be, but it's not big. The reason I mentioned before is that real estate speculators will not care about this. As long as the income is larger than the investment, why not do it
5. The diving of house prices and the collapse of the real estate market have a huge impact on the national economy, and the state will not allow this situation. In addition, we don't know how many houses a government official owns, but I dare say a lot. These people don't rock themselves in the foot< In the end, let's not forget that the government is also responsible for the rise of house prices. The fact that the land is owned by the state and put up for public auction can strongly prove this point
personal views, for reference only.
7. Hello
there is often a positive correlation between the exchange rate and the rise of house prices, but this only shows that the exchange rate and house prices of RMB are jointly determined by such fundamental factors as per capita income and relative labor proctivity, which does not mean that the exchange rate of RMB can directly affect house prices. The relationship between the two is more complicated than we think, and it is difficult to summarize it in one or two sentences
from the perspective of supply and demand analysis, the appreciation expectation of nominal exchange rate will attract short-term capital inflow and push up the real estate price; Devaluation will bring down real estate prices. But it's easy to find a counter example: since the beginning of this year, the RMB has depreciated significantly, but the real estate prices, especially in the first and second tier cities, have gone up all the way. This shows that the exchange rate for real estate prices may be only a small variable; This round of house prices are more driven by domestic currency liquidity, which has nothing to do with the exchange rate; Due to the purchase restriction, the proportion of foreign hot money in real estate investment should be very small
generally speaking, RMB exchange rate depends on market supply and demand, basket currency and stable demand. In the current situation of large-scale trade surplus and strict capital control, there is no basis for a substantial depreciation of RMB; The impact of exchange rate on real estate prices is also quite limited. On the contrary, under the current policy framework, the central bank's interest rate rection will lead to RMB depreciation and house price appreciation, showing a reverse trend; Only when the degree of capital account openness increases, the positive correlation between exchange rate and house price will become more significant
there is often a positive correlation between the exchange rate and the rise of house prices, but this only shows that the exchange rate and house prices of RMB are jointly determined by such fundamental factors as per capita income and relative labor proctivity, which does not mean that the exchange rate of RMB can directly affect house prices. The relationship between the two is more complicated than we think, and it is difficult to summarize it in one or two sentences
from the perspective of supply and demand analysis, the appreciation expectation of nominal exchange rate will attract short-term capital inflow and push up the real estate price; Devaluation will bring down real estate prices. But it's easy to find a counter example: since the beginning of this year, the RMB has depreciated significantly, but the real estate prices, especially in the first and second tier cities, have gone up all the way. This shows that the exchange rate for real estate prices may be only a small variable; This round of house prices are more driven by domestic currency liquidity, which has nothing to do with the exchange rate; Due to the purchase restriction, the proportion of foreign hot money in real estate investment should be very small
generally speaking, RMB exchange rate depends on market supply and demand, basket currency and stable demand. In the current situation of large-scale trade surplus and strict capital control, there is no basis for a substantial depreciation of RMB; The impact of exchange rate on real estate prices is also quite limited. On the contrary, under the current policy framework, the central bank's interest rate rection will lead to RMB depreciation and house price appreciation, showing a reverse trend; Only when the degree of capital account openness increases, the positive correlation between exchange rate and house price will become more significant
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