Hainan REITs digital currency
In fact, this problem is not absolute which is good, fixed deposit and financial procts have their own advantages and disadvantages, standing in different angles have different evaluation
in fact, if we really want to distinguish between fixed deposit and financial procts, we can compare them in terms of yield, security and liquidity
(1) from the perspective of yield,
according to the fixed-term benchmark interest rate of the central bank, the lowest is the three-month period, with an annual interest rate of 1.10%, and the highest is the three-year period, with an annual interest rate of 2.75%! Even if many banks raise the interest rate of time deposit, it is basically within 4%. If the interest rate exceeds 4%, it is a relatively high time deposit
different from bank financial procts, bank financial procts are divided into low, medium and high risks. The higher the risk level, the higher the yield, the lower the risk level and the lower the yield. Even the low-risk financial procts are generally between 3% and 4%, the medium risk interest rate is between 4% and 6%, and the high-risk interest rate is as high as 10%
from the perspective of bank fixed deposit yield and financial proct yield, it is obvious that the financial proct yield is high. From the perspective of yield, it is definitely better to choose financial management
(2) from the security analysis
because the bank time deposit belongs to the deposit business, and the bank deposit business is the lowest risk, belongs to the principal and interest protection, which can be said to be zero risk, which is the security of time deposit
but financial management is different. No matter what kind of financial management is, there are risks, and the principal may suffer losses
therefore, if we choose from security, we must choose time deposit to ensure the safety of funds
(3) from the analysis of capital liquidity, because the fixed deposit of the bank is time limited, it is called fixed deposit, and fixed deposit is the specified time. During this period, the deposit can not be used, and the fund has been completely locked
but financial management is different. For example, the most liquid financial management is the purchase of Monetary Fund, which can be used at any time. Or it can be used to buy one-day reverse repurchase of treasury bonds. The funds are only locked for a few hours, but they can get one-day interest, and the funds can be used normally in the next day
therefore, if we consider it in terms of capital liquidity, we must take money for financial management and strengthen capital liquidity
based on the analysis and comparison of the above bank fixed deposit and financial management, it can be concluded that it is better to choose financial management according to the rate of return and liquidity, but it is better to choose bank fixed deposit when considering the safety of capital. In short, each has its own advantages and disadvantages. There is no absolute good. Only the one that suits you is the best
(2) over concentrated investment in domestic real estate
investors worry that the depreciation of RMB will lead to the reversal of the expectation of the whole real estate market, prompting investors to graally give up the property, which has been overvalued. Therefore, Xiaoyou believes that for the third and fourth tier cities, the possibility of falling house prices is increasing
especially when the RMB appreciation cycle begins, the hot money flowing into China from overseas will flow out of China e to the depreciation of RMB, or dare not easily enter the Chinese investment market
(3) families who will send their children to study abroad
for families who will study abroad, the depreciation of RMB means the same equivalent of RMB, and the exchange rate is much less than before. Relatively speaking, overseas tuition fees and living expenses may be significantly different from the expected planning
according to the data released by China foreign exchange trading center, on December 14, 2015, 1 US dollar was convertible into RMB 6.4495 yuan, while on January 13, 2016, the value became RMB 6.5630 yuan. In terms of US $1000, it costs 113.5 yuan more than a month ago< (4) Chinese enterprises long RMB
in recent years, with the steady appreciation of RMB against the US dollar, many Chinese enterprises long RMB through "target redeemable forward contract" to ensure stable export income, and even some enterprises borrow money to pledge RMB appreciation, which magnifies the income brought ring the period of RMB appreciation. Xiaoyou believes that once the trend of RMB exchange rate changes, it will also aggravate the losses caused to these people by the depreciation of RMB
How do people cope with the devaluation of RMB
for ordinary people, in the period of RMB depreciation, Xiaoyou believes that US dollar assets can be the best choice for the decentralized allocation of household assets
(1) US dollar savings
for ordinary investors, US dollar can be used as a decentralized allocation of household assets to hedge against the depreciation of RMB. At present, the interest rate of fixed-term savings in US dollars is relatively low, and the interest rate of fixed-term savings in US dollars for one year is only 0.75%. At the same time, we need to consider the limit of indivial purchase of foreign exchange< With the devaluation of RMB against the US dollar, we can allocate US dollar assets by investing in overseas RMB QDII funds. On the one hand, we don't need to consider the limit of indivial foreign exchange purchase, on the other hand, we can get higher income from US dollar deposits. It is for the above reasons that Xiaoyou found that such funds have become very hot recently, and even need to suspend subscription
as of January 17, 37 QDII funds had restricted their subscription. On January 13 alone, 10 QDII funds had suspended their large subscription e to the exhaustion of foreign exchange quota. Among them, 8 QDII funds of Boshi fund had completely suspended their subscription on January 6< (3) offshore US dollar settlement funds
investors can directly invest in global fund portfolios other than RMB qualified domestic institutional investor (QDII) funds in Hong Kong, including stock or bond funds in China. Information disclosure of financial procts in Hong Kong must be approved by the SFC, and practitioners must also be regulated by the monetary authority and the SFC
moreover, the vast majority of funds in Hong Kong are settled in US dollars, while a small number are settled in Euro, Hong Kong dollar, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar and other currencies. There are many kinds of funds to choose from. Some bond funds pay dividends every month, with an annual interest rate of 9%. It is higher than domestic dollar financial procts or dollar fixed deposit< (4) offshore US dollar settlement bonds
for investors who prefer fixed interest but are more conservative, Xiaoyou suggests that they can buy offshore sovereign bonds or listed company bonds. Most of them are settled in US dollars, while some are settled in RMB, euro, Hong Kong dollars and other currencies
there is no need to bear the fluctuation of bond fund price when buying bonds, and the investment mode is more like bank deposit. Generally, the dividend will be paid once every six months, and the term can be selected from one year to more than 10 years. Take the domestic sports brand 361 as an example. The current maturity rate of bonds issued in Hong Kong is about 6%
(5) offshore savings insurance
in the tide of RMB devaluation, a large number of investors buy Hong Kong savings insurance to hedge. On the one hand, most of Hong Kong insurance is settled in US dollars or Hong Kong dollars, and the rate of return is positively correlated with the interest rate in US dollars. When the US dollar enters the interest rate increase cycle, the policy return rate will also increase correspondingly, and the current dividend return rate is about 3.5% - 4%
on the other hand, the cost of purchasing insurance is not limited by the amount of foreign exchange purchased by indivials. Therefore, in the past, the record of the largest premium life insurance policy in Hong Kong has reached a new high every year, and the latest premium record has reached more than 100 million yuan, which shows that some domestic high net worth customers use savings policies to hedge against depreciation risk and improve the rate of return on investment< (6) overseas real estate investment
with the over valuation and over supply of domestic real estate and the trend of RMB devaluation, some investors choose overseas real estate as a part of asset allocation in recent years. On the one hand, the property appreciation potential is higher than that in China, and the rent return rate is as high as 5-15%, which is higher than the domestic average of 2-3%
although many people begin to allocate US dollar assets in anticipation of the increasing depreciation of RMB, they remind us that investment in US dollar assets needs to be well chosen and not blindly follow suit
the impact of RMB depreciation on ordinary people
1) domestic prices will soar
the devaluation of RMB represents the relative appreciation of foreign currency, so the goods priced in foreign currency will become more expensive. Don't think that if we don't go abroad to buy things, there will be no impact. In fact, in today's economic globalization, almost all the things we use have foreign factors. The prices of China's major imports will rise sharply: soybeans, natural gas, oil, iron ore, etc. The price rise of these things will lead to the price rise of almost all domestic commodities. Because of the rise of oil and iron ore, the prices of almost everything will rise, because almost all commodities are made of these two things. In particular, if the price of daily necessities rises, the cost of living will increase, and then the profits demanded by farmers and businessmen will also increase. In order to maintain profits, foreign enterprises in China (such as KFC McDonald's) will increase their prices accordingly, so the prices of all things in the whole society will rise, causing serious inflation at home
2) the cost of traveling and shopping abroad is increasing, and you can't enjoy overseas shopping any more. Traveling abroad will also cost more RMB
3) wages will increase correspondingly, but the growth rate of wages will certainly not keep up with the growth rate of prices, so all wage earners will become relatively poor
because of inflation, all enterprises will make more money (more from the number). Moreover, with the increase of social prices, part of the money will increase the wages of employees, but in any case, the wages will not be as fast as the price growth rate
4) in the tourism instry, export enterprises will make a lot of money This is conditional)
the devaluation of RMB will lead to cheaper goods and services priced in RMB, so foreigners will prefer to buy things from China, the price of labor in China will be relatively lower, the goods will become cheaper, attract more tourists, and the things proced in China will be better sold
but the reason for conditional restriction is that if there is hyperinflation, that is, the inflation rate exceeds the depreciation rate of RMB, that is, the price of goods rises more than the depreciation rate of RMB, then domestic goods and services will be more expensive for foreigners, which will lead to the decline of China's export and tourism
5) the gap between the rich and the poor in China will be directly widened
combined with the above three and four points, it can be understood that for the ordinary people with wages, their income will definitely decrease, while for the export enterprises or businessmen, the losses brought by the devaluation of RMB will be directly transferred to consumers or employees, which will directly increase the gap between the rich and the poor in society.
The real estate market is a place or field engaged in the sale, lease, sale and mortgage of real estate and land. Real estate includes the residence as the personal consumption data of residents, as well as the factory buildings and office buildings as the means of proction. Therefore, the housing market is a part of the means of living market, while the non housing real estate market is a part of the factor of proction market. Real estate is also a natural commodity, so the establishment and development of real estate market is the requirement of economic operation
the real estate market is the basic condition for the social reproction of the real estate instry, and it can promote the development of many instries such as the construction instry and the building materials instry. Through the market mechanism, the real estate market can timely realize the value and use value of real estate, improve the economic benefits of real estate instry, promote the effective allocation of real estate resources and the virtuous cycle of real estate construction funds. The real estate market can guide the rationalization of residents' consumption structure, improve the living conditions and improve the living standard of residents. Therefore, the real estate market is the most representative and important part of the real estate market system, which is in the dominant position. The absolute amount of sales of real estate enterprises from January to May is not very low, which can be illustrated by the fact that the sales data of most key real estate enterprises are still increasing year-on-year. However, in terms of the annual target of 2014, the completion ratio is very low. It can be seen that the developers have overestimated the overall market in 2014 at the beginning of the year
as of yesterday, 13 A-share and H-share listed real estate companies including Vanke, Evergrande, Greenland, country garden and poly announced their sales performance in May. Sales of key real estate enterprises improved in May e to increased promotion efforts and the graal effect of local rescue policies, but the overall sales target completion rate generally declined from January to May. It is expected that in the second half of the year, the pressure of real estate enterprises on shipment and de commercialization will increase sharply, and the sales strategy of following the market and speeding up de commercialization will become the mainstream of real estate enterprises to deal with the market. Most of the performance in May stopped falling and rebounded
the performance data showed that the sales of 13 key real estate enterprises generally stopped falling and rebounded in May. From the year-on-year situation of sales amount, only Shimao and Fuli have declined by 14% and 5% respectively. Other real estate enterprises have increased in varying degrees, but the differentiation is obvious. Among them, Vanke increased by 3% year-on-year, with the same growth rate as last month; Green space increased by 37% year-on-year, 17 percentage points higher than that of last month; The year-on-year growth rate of Poly Real Estate changed from negative to positive, rising from - 12% last month to 10% in May; Evergrande real estate and rongchuang China increased by 28% and 23% respectively year-on-year, but the growth rate narrowed compared with last month
from the aspect of month on month comparison of sales amount, the amount of 13 key real estate enterprises rose and fell in half. Among them, Evergrande, shouchuang, Fuli, Shimao and Xuhui declined by 9%, 28%, 27%, 3% and 6% respectively; Other real estate enterprises rose to varying degrees, with poly, Greenland and Vanke rising by 47%, 25% and 14% respectively, while their month on month declines in April were 31%, 20% and 11% respectively
in May, the performance of key real estate enterprises rebounded and stabilized, which was mainly e to the fact that real estate enterprises followed the market and increased sales promotion, especially the leading real estate enterprises. For Vanke, after the price rection in March, the project continued to sell well. In May, 427 sets of Vanke orange were sold, with a turnover of 733 million yuan; Among the 14.7 billion yuan sales of Greenland Group in May, Shanghai Greenland center phase II contributed nearly 30%; Poly Real estate, on the other hand, takes advantage of multi disk linkage marketing to increase Festival Promotion and discount marketing. Taking the two projects of poly Zishan garden and poly mansion in Foshan as examples, the sales in May were 400 million yuan and 270 million yuan respectively, up 54.7 times and 81% respectively on a month on month basis. The promotion effect is remarkable. In addition, local efforts to rescue the market have increased, especially the first set of bank credit has been relaxed, which has also promoted a rebound in sales of real estate enterprises
the annual target completion rate is dismal
although the sales situation improved slightly in May, e to the sluggish market and poor sales in the first five months, the completion of 2014 sales target of key real estate enterprises is not satisfactory so far. From the cumulative target completion rate from January to may, Evergrande has the highest completion rate of 51% among the 13 enterprises; Vanke finished 41%; Then country garden, Xuhui, poly, Fuli, Shimao and rongchuang all achieved 30% - 40%; 25%, 23% and 21% respectively in Greenland, China Olympic Park and Jindi; Only 18% of the first home buyers; The completion rate of the sample year is only 10%, which is lower than the 40% time line
generally speaking, affected by the Spring Festival, the completion rate of real estate enterprises will be slow in the first half of the year, but compared with the same period of 2013, the performance completion rate of most real estate enterprises will also decline in varying degrees in 2014. For example, Shimao and poly fell by 16% and 11% respectively; Greenland and Fuli also declined by 6 percentage points; The number of first home buyers decreased by 4 percentage points; China Olympic Park and rongchuang are basically the same as in 2013
some analysts believe that from the sales data of real estate enterprises, it seems that when developers set goals at the beginning of the year, they made collective mistakes in instry judgment
e to the general decline of the target completion rate, real estate enterprises will face the two-way pressure of pushing the case and de standardization in the second half of the year. On the one hand, e to the low degree of performance completion, real estate enterprises need to increase the number of cases to speed up sales to ensure that they can achieve the annual target; On the other hand, if the instry continues to slump, real estate companies will increase the volume of push will also increase the risk of goods. It can be clear that Vanke, Greenland, poly and other leading real estate enterprises will follow the market and speed up the de marketing strategy, which will become the mainstream for real estate enterprises to deal with the market in the second half of the year
market bubble
the last century from 80s to the middle and late 90s, the Chinese mainland's real estate market has not been able to keep pace with the rapid economic progress. In 1999, the central government began to stop the welfare housing distribution system throughout the country, and began to implement the monetization system of housing distribution. This system has been experimented in Yantai since 1986, which is characterized by raising rent, issuing coupons and idling. Soon, Tangshan, Bengbu and other cities also joined the ranks of housing reform pilot
however, e to the high-intensity inflation in the late 1980s (the inflation rate reached 18.5% in 1988), the overall adjustment of the macro-economy led to the tightening of money, a large number of real estate enterprises lost their sources of funds, resulting in the first upsurge of uncompleted residential buildings since China's reform and opening up. In this case, the reform of housing distribution and the development of the real estate market will inevitably end in silence< In the 1990s, after Deng Xiaoping's speech on the tour to the south in 1992, the state appropriately decentralized the examination and approval power of land lease, and the real estate development in the South has been developing at a high speed for a whole year. However, this crazy construction climax has led to the rise of raw materials in the upstream, which has also caused a new high-intensity inflation, and created a second upsurge of uncompleted buildings. Such as Hainan Province, Guangxi Beihai and other uncompleted buildings mostly appeared in this period< In 1994, the decision of the State Council on deepening the reform of urban housing system was issued and implemented, and the housing provident fund system began to be established in an all-round way. Previously, this real estate allocation system from Singapore was only carried out in Shanghai
in 1998, the central government decided to stop the distribution of housing in kind and change it to monetary distribution. After the termination of welfare housing distribution, new housing will be sold but not rented in principle, and the housing provident fund system will be fully implemented. At that time, China Construction Bank issued China's first personal housing mortgage loan< Since the entry into the br century in the year of />2000, the Chinese mainland's real estate market reform has been rapidly warming under the impetus of the new wave of real estate investment boom. In 2001, the real estate investment was 624.5 billion yuan, accounting for 16.9% of the total social investment of 3689.8 billion yuan. In 2004, the real estate investment rose to 1448.075 billion yuan, accounting for 24.7% of the total social investment of 5862.028 billion yuan (in the first half of 2005, the real estate investment was 619.3 billion yuan, 3289.5 billion yuan, accounting for 18.7%). 8%) At the same time, the government has also introced a number of preferential policies to expect the real estate instry to become a new pillar instry. The methods used include refund of personal income tax, rection of transaction deed tax, relaxation of bank loan conditions, increase of real estate instry support and so on. In this context, house prices began to soar rapidly. The most obvious example of this wave of house price fluctuations is Shanghai, China's largest city
in 2000, the average price of a house in Shanghai was 3326 yuan per square meter. By 2004, the average price had risen to 6385 yuan, an increase of 92%. In 2001, only 4% of the houses in Shanghai sold for more than 8000 yuan per square meter. In 2003, the figure reached 16%. By the first quarter of 2005, the transaction price of 40% of the houses was more than 8000 yuan per square meter, and most of the houses in the city center had exceeded 16000 yuan per square meter
Chinese mainland city prices are rising almost at the same rate: Hangzhou's housing prices started earlier than Shanghai, but they also encountered the market counterattack earlier than Shanghai. Beijing's housing price rose quite surprisingly, and Chinese mainland's highest price city status was not exceeded by Shanghai in early 2003. The rise of house prices is not only concentrated in central cities, but also spread to some secondary cities
scholars and most economists of the national research institutes believe that the Chinese mainland property bubble is comparable to the real estate market in Hongkong before 1991, before the 1997 real estate market. But a few scholars and most real estate businessmen insist that the Chinese mainland property market does not exist bubble, which is only a normal rise after the long-term planned system. However, in June 2003, the people's Bank of China issued the so-called Document No. 121 to strengthen the management of real estate investment and curb the excessive growth of real estate. However, a month later, the State Council issued Order No. 8, which offset the effectiveness of the above-mentioned documents to a certain extent. House prices continued to move forward in the government's self contradiction until they peaked in early 2005
since 2005, the central government has taken a series of control measures in order to stabilize house prices and calm people's dissatisfaction. In particular, seven ministries and commissions jointly issued the "opinions on stabilizing housing prices.". The opinion stipulates that "for housing projects that have not started within two years, planning review shall be concted again", "business tax shall be levied on the full amount of transactions when the real estate held for less than two years changes hands", "strengthening the construction of affordable housing" and so on. This policy has a strong impact on the Chinese mainland's real estate bubble, and a large number of consumers are buying money to buy, which has a strong expectation of falling. As of the time when the items were compiled, the house prices in Shanghai have stabilized, the rising trend is no longer obvious, and the transactions have begun to shrink
market problems
1. The source structure of real estate funds is single, the proportion of developers' own funds is low, and the dependence of real estate market funds is relatively high
2. The possibility of enclosure still exists
3. With the rapid growth of housing prices, people's psychological expectations are relatively large, the proportion of housing is small, and structural contradictions are still prominent
4. The supporting policies of housing social security are not perfect, with poor operability, high threshold and narrow benefit area
5. There are many real estate enterprises with high debt ratio
6. The supply of second-hand housing has not been released, the supply is insufficient, and the market needs to be standardized
7
8. The compensation for demolition and resettlement is unreasonable, and the disputes of urban housing demolition continue
9. The concept needs to be changed. The rent rate is 40% in developed areas, 37% in France, 34% in Britain, 30% in Singapore and 28% in the United States. This situation is concive to the flow of population, which is of positive significance to the moderate investment house purchase
one of the core of all these problems lies in the "land finance" of local government, that is, local government