Analysis of the influence of digital RMB on monetary policy

1.

The digital RMB red envelope of 10 million yuan issued by Shenzhen city has brought the development of e-money back to the people's vision

in fact, since April 2020, small-scale pilot projects of digital RMB have been carried out in Shenzhen, Cheng, Suzhou and xiong'an, and the pilot scale will be expanded to 28 provinces and cities in August 2020

as a socially recognized "super outlet", in addition to the high investment of digital currency related enterprises, its impact on the financial market is also of great research value

Policy evolution of the development of digital RMB

as early as 2014, the central bank has concted research layout on digital RMB, and discussed the development framework of digital RMB with major international financial institutions and research institutions in the 2016 digital currency seminar

after six years of development, China has initially developed the "pbctfp blockchain platform" and continuously promoted the pilot activities of digital RMB. It can be predicted that as today's technology and policy outlet, digital RMB will have excellent development prospects and extremely fast development speed in the next few years

Figure 1: Policy Evolution of digital RMB

with the improvement of China's national strength, digital RMB provides an opportunity to establish a "new system of RMB cross border settlement", which can promote RMB payment activities around the world and realize the internationalization of RMB

2.

1. For commercial banks and other financial institutions, it is both an opportunity and a challenge. In the future, more innovations such as digital credit, digital assets and digital liabilities will be derived from digital currency, while the non sovereign "digital right currency" will graally cool down. In addition, the central bank can improve the efficiency of monetary operation monitoring and enrich monetary policy means after the issuance of digital currency

2. Issuing the legal digital currency of the central bank will make it possible to collect the data of money creation, bookkeeping and flow in real time. After data desensitization, it will conct in-depth analysis through big data and other technical means, so as to provide a useful reference for money supply, formulation and Implementation of monetary policy, and provide a useful means for economic regulation and control

extended data:

characteristics of digital currency

Central Bank digital currency is quite different from electronic payment in some functions. In the past, the fund transfer of electronic payment instruments must be completed through the traditional bank account, which adopts the way of "account tightly coupled"

and the central bank's digital currency is "account loose coupling", which can be separated from the traditional bank account to realize the value transfer and greatly rece the dependence of the transaction link on the account. The digital currency of the central bank can be as easy to circulate as cash, which is concive to the circulation and internationalization of RMB. At the same time, it can realize controllable anonymity

3. The digital currency issued by the central bank is only a substitute for banknotes and coins. In fact, it is a kind of electronic cash, which has little impact on monetary policy and commercial banks. In the traditional currency issuance, the cash in circulation is actually the direct debt of the central bank to the public, only because of technical constraints and cost considerations, the central bank issues cash through commercial banks. With the progress of technology, it is possible for the central bank to issue money directly to indivial and enterprise accounts in the form of digital currency. E-cash flow is still through the central bank and financial institutions, and then to enterprises and indivials. In terms of money manufacturing channels, circulation links and functions, e-cash flow is exactly the same as paper money

e-cash flow still flows through the central bank and financial institutions to enterprises and indivials, which is identical with paper money in terms of money creation channels, circulation links and functions, and does not break away from the scope of traditional monetary policy regulation. The main function of e-cash is to facilitate transaction payment
considering that the development of non cash payment methods such as third-party payment has greatly facilitated transaction payment in recent years, the impact of e-cash on money transaction demand is limited, and the overall impact on monetary policy is not significant. The extent to which e-cash is accepted by the public depends on its convenience and security.

4. This paper expounds the truth of economy with the most simple reason. There won't be any so-called profound academic theories that academic prostitutes often use to deceive the people. Let's clear our eyes and see what's happening today. This paper expounds the truth of China's economy in the following aspects
1. What is economic development
simply speaking, economic development is money, but where does money come from? Money can only be printed. So what makes the banknote printing machine keep running
suppose there are 1000 people on an island who are isolated from the world and exchange goods between people to live, but sometimes what you exchange in your hand is not necessarily what the other party wants. What should you do? So people use their favorite gold and silver as exchange things, so exchange is convenient. However, gold and silver have to be worn out, and it is not convenient to carry. When exchange activities are frequent, it is found that this thing is too cumbersome, which limits exchange activities. So in order to solve this problem, a solution is proposed, that is, the managers on the island issue a symbol to replace gold and silver, so banknotes appear
in the beginning, this kind of money could be exchanged for gold and silver at any time. Everyone is very relieved, because money is gold and silver. However, the output of gold and silver on the island is too small. When people's exchange activities become more frequent, there is not enough money and they have to suspend the exchange. The consequence of the suspension of exchange is that people will not proce what others want, because although others use it, they can not exchange it. To paraphrase the current words, economic development has slowed down
so we thought of a way to set up a bank, which belongs to us. The bank issues banknotes, and the printed banknotes are lent to the person who wants to use the money, and then the person who has the money will return them to the bank. So the bank came along
the emergence of banks can ensure that the exchange activities can be carried out more continuously. We all work hard to proce more and more things on the island. Banks keep printing banknotes according to the proction quantity of procts, so as to ensure that the exchange can be carried out more deeply
later, people's exchange activities became more frequent. One bank was too few, so many banks appeared. There must be a bank manager, so one bank was appointed to manage other banks, and the banknotes could only be printed by this bank, and then lent to the people who used the money through other banks, so the central bank also appeared< What is foreign trade
one day, people on the island invented the boat, so they rowed around and found another island with people and money on it, just like they did on their own island. However, there are many things proced on the island, but there are few things proced on that island. One yuan can buy one jin of rice on the island, and one yuan on that island can only buy half a jin of rice. Therefore, when the money from the other island comes to this island to buy things, it can only be changed from two yuan to one yuan. So there is the exchange rate. After calculating the exchange rate, they began to buy and sell things to each other's Island, which is foreign trade. Foreign trade enriches people's life and proction needs, and makes exchange activities to an unprecedented climax
3. What is inflation
there are so many procts proced on the island that it is impossible to accurately estimate how many banknotes should be issued. When there are too many procts to buy, the prices of procts begin to rise. When there are too few procts, the prices begin to fall. In order to ensure price stability, the central bank requires banks to put part of their money in the central bank to adjust the prices of procts, More or less according to the price. This is the deposit reserve ratio
but how can some smart people get money into their hands? He picked up a stone by the sea and said it was worth 1 million yuan. He sold it to a man. He thought that there was no 1 million yuan in the whole island. What should he do? So he borrowed it from the bank. The bank didn't have so much money, so he opened the money printing machine and printed the 1 million yuan, I lent him this stone
then the man began to sell the stone, and one million yuan was sold to the second person. Because the first person who sold the stone spent the money, there was more money on the island, so the million yuan could be raised and more procts could be bought. However, when the stone was transferred for 2 million yuan, the bank could only print another 1 million yuan of banknotes. In this way, more and more banknotes were printed. However, when the stone was continuously transferred, people did not think that there was more money on the island and the proct price was the same as before. However, when the stone does not circulate or circulates slowly, people feel that there is more money. However, if the person who holds the stone throws it into the sea, it means that there will be more than one million stones on the island out of thin air. What should we do? What the central bank fears most is that the stone is gone. Without it, the price of procts on the island will soar and inflation will occur. Then the stone owners kidnap the island's economy< Can house prices kidnap China's economy
China's real estate has made the people's Bank of China issue too much RMB. If the house price drops, it is equivalent to throwing that stone into the sea, so much money printed out will make the price of Chinese procts soar and lead to serious inflation
it seems that house prices have nothing to do with stones, but their attributes are the same, that is, the serious deviation between price and value. In fact, the real estate crash is not the biggest victim of China's commercial banks, but the entire Chinese economic system. Why does the government delay in lowering house prices? It's not that it can't. If we really want to lower house prices, we only need a decree, and the real estate prices will collapse overnight. But who can bear the consequences? Who will be responsible for the serious inflation< There is no doubt that the real estate instry has kidnapped China's economy. It is objective and real, and no one can change it
no matter who is the prime minister, honest or corrupt, they all hope for social harmony, but this is a thorny problem< Is there any relationship between house price and inflation
but it's not just here. If we rece house prices, we will face immediate inflation. If we do not rece house prices, we will face more serious inflation. Where to go
therefore, the most reliable way is to stabilize house prices, and then rece the amount of money when social procts increase. In addition, other policies, such as raising interest rates, increasing the reserve ratio of commercial banks, recing the scale of credit and other auxiliary means, are the best way to make China's economy soft landing. This is also the logic of all the policies we see. If you don't believe it, you can refer to a series of measures issued by the government in recent years to regulate the real estate instry
but why are house prices unstable and growing more rapidly? Is it the game between developers and the government? Let me tell you that no one in China can challenge the party. A few developers with big stomachs don't have such strength. In fact, it is another black hand behind the scenes who is playing games with the Chinese government. This black hand is foreign capital, the black hand of imperialism represented by the United States, who has seized the blood and sweat of the Chinese people
6. What is the driving force behind the rise of house prices
there are many driving forces for the rise of house prices, and one of them is the people who are beneficial to the rise of house prices. For example, local governments for the sake of GDP and personal interests, developers for making money, real estate speculators and so-called "house slaves" who have bought houses are all the driving forces for the rise of house prices, but the biggest driving force is not these, it is foreign capital, It's the major consortia of the United States that grab excess profits
as a businessman, it's not unreasonable for developers to make high profits, but there are businessmen in all walks of life. Do you want to make money? Unless it's a myth. The same is true for real estate developers. They don't earn as much as they want. According to the law of value, when the price of goods deviates from the value seriously, there will be a force that tends to return to the normal price to restrain the price rise. However, in China's real estate instry, this law does not seem to work. One important reason is that it ignores a reference range. If China's economy itself does break this law, But the current situation is that there is a force to maintain the price of the real estate instry, that is, supporting the market, so who is supporting the market
the people who can get huge profits when the real estate instry is out of control are the people who support the market
before discussing this issue, let's take a look at China's foreign exchange reserves. In recent years, China's foreign exchange reserves have rapidly exceeded one trillion or two hundred billion, and are still growing rapidly. Is it the Chinese people's hard work to earn it? There is no need to prove this. If we look at China's GDP growth, we can see that the growth rate of foreign exchange reserves is significantly faster than that of GDP. Obviously, it's not earned. In addition to the part earned, it is the influx of so-called "international hot money". The purpose of the influx of international hot money is to achieve high returns
when international hot money enters the Chinese market, it should be converted into RMB first, so how can there be so many RMB at once? The only way is to let the money printing machine work day and night, and then the money is used to hold the hot real estate market, that is, to invest in the real estate instry desperately. When the real estate price fluctuates downward e to deviation from the value, it will be raised by supporting the market. The appearance is that the real estate price never deviates from the value. As a result, house prices are rising higher and higher
as for developers, as soon as they can't sell the house, someone will pay a high price to buy it. How can they rece the price? If there is no such fund in operation, let alone the developer alliance, there is only one developer in the country, and the price will also drop. No one will buy it. Is it waiting for the house to get moldy
What do foreign investors do with so many high priced real estate? Are you not afraid to hit it
not afraid! Why? In the process of capital operation, there is a big wrongdoer at the bottom. Then, who is it? That is, China's commercial banks, e to the hot real estate market and first-class liquidity, have not seen any signs of shrinkage in recent years. They make profits after lending. Why not lend? There is no reason not to lend
in addition to the mood of Chinese people to buy houses, foreign investors can easily transfer high priced houses to Chinese banks and consumers, and even farmers who speculate in real estate can earn a share. Will professional foreign investors lose money
what will happen if house prices keep rising? Please look at the next section: "7. Will developers laugh or cry when house prices keep rising? When do you laugh? When do you cry? "
7. Will developers laugh or cry when house prices keep rising? When do you laugh? When do you cry
under the control of dozens of gold medals in recent years by the Chinese government, house prices are still running like wild horses. No matter when we can stop the rising trend, after all, house prices are still rising at present, so let's see what the rising house prices will bring
first of all, e to the rise of GDP, the Chinese government has to continuously invest RMB in order to maintain the "continuation of proct exchange" mentioned above, that is, to start the banknote printing machine. As long as the real estate stone has not been put into the sea, and there is a certain liquidity, then there will be no inflation
secondly, developers will live in this area