Digital currency is not conducive to RMB internationalization

1.

The digital RMB red envelope of 10 million yuan issued by Shenzhen city has brought the development of e-money back to the people's vision

in fact, since April 2020, small-scale pilot projects of digital RMB have been carried out in Shenzhen, Cheng, Suzhou and xiong'an, and the pilot scale will be expanded to 28 provinces and cities in August 2020

as a socially recognized "super outlet", in addition to the high investment of digital currency related enterprises, its impact on the financial market is also of great research value

Policy evolution of the development of digital RMB

as early as 2014, the central bank has concted research layout on digital RMB, and discussed the development framework of digital RMB with major international financial institutions and research institutions in the 2016 digital currency seminar

after six years of development, China has initially developed the "pbctfp blockchain platform" and continuously promoted the pilot activities of digital RMB. It can be predicted that as today's technology and policy outlet, digital RMB will have excellent development prospects and extremely fast development speed in the next few years

Figure 1: Policy Evolution of digital RMB

with the improvement of China's national strength, digital RMB provides an opportunity to establish a "new system of RMB cross border settlement", which can promote RMB payment activities around the world and realize the internationalization of RMB

2.

Hello, the replacement of paper-based RMB by digital RMB is basically certain. Just as the era goes from entity to e-commerce, RMB also goes from offline to online. Its function is exactly the same as paper money, that is, the digital version of paper money

at present, China's digital currency is a leading technology, which is bound to accelerate its digital currency construction in the short term, in order to find the gap with DCEP. However, DCEP can ultimately promote the nationalization of RMB, still depends on the steady growth of domestic economy and the international circulation ability of RMB itself, not only on the digital technology of RMB, but also has a long way to go

3. The core value of CBDC can be summarized as four points: first, the original purpose is to let the central bank better manage money creation and supply, enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission mechanism and better deal with the business cycle. Second, the construction of payment and clearing infrastructure based on blockchain related technologies can rece costs and increase efficiency. Digital currency can greatly rece the cost of currency issuance, circulation, use and other links, and realize banknote free transactions, which is also in line with the current trend of rapid development of electronic payment. Third, it has given the central bank stronger control over the monetary system, such as KFC, anti money laundering, anti-terrorism financing, and some targeted policies. Before the launch of Libra, the central bank attached importance to CBDC mainly for the above three purposes. But now, the significance of CBDC in promoting the internationalization of RMB has become more important than ever. This is the fourth purpose of the central bank. Judging from the current progress of RMB internationalization, there are indeed many difficulties. One is the US led encirclement and interception, and the other is the turbulence in the stock and exchange markets. In order to break the encirclement led by the United States, realize the normal development of the stock exchange market and the foreign exchange market, and realize the internationalization of RMB, it is really a good way for the central bank to issue digital currency. On the 10th anniversary of RMB internationalization, RMB internationalization has made remarkable achievements. 13 international financial institutions around the world began to pay attention to China's bond market. In the tide of interest rate rection in developed countries, negative interest rate has become a conventional means, and China's bonds are very competitive in the world. As of the second quarter of 2019, 38 countries have signed currency swap agreements with China, with a total amount of 3.67 trillion yuan. The one belt, one road, which one belt, one road to push forward, is continuously creating demand for RMB internationalization, and the export of RMB has become an important means of "one belt and one road" internationalization of RMB. In addition, RMB is one of the most active currencies in the global foreign exchange market, and London has surpassed Hong Kong as the world's largest offshore RMB foreign exchange trading center. With the steady development of China's economy, RMB assets will continue to be favored by all countries in the world< One belt, one road or other friendly country, was also shared by the Central Bank of China when it issued the CBDC. It shared some of the mint rights with br />
CBDC. How to participate? Including the following two cases, let's take Kazakhstan as an example. The first is that Kazakhstan can issue RMB denominated Kazakh government bonds. The issuer is Kazakhstan, but the RMB denominated bonds are sovereign bonds for Kazakhstan, which can also be sold to the Central Bank of China in exchange for CBDC. The second is that Kazakhstan issues treasury bonds denominated in its own currency, which are issued by Kazakhstan and priced in its own currency. This method is the easiest for Kazakhstan, because this is their own national debt, which is sold to the Central Bank of China, which gives it CBDC. The similarities between the two lie in that they both sell treasury bonds to the Central Bank of China, but the issuers of treasury bonds are not the same, and the pricing currencies of treasury bonds are not the same, so the requirements for Kazakhstan are not the same. In theory, these ways can be used as a political tool to influence and regulate the relationship between the Chinese government and Kazakhstan<

4 digital currency will become the biggest magic weapon of RMB internationalization

China is now facing the biggest challenge, in terms of currency, in fact, the internationalization of RMB. The monetary settlement system based on US dollar has brought great problems to the decision-makers outside the US dollar. The best way to rece the status of US dollar is to replace us dollar with a global digital currency to end the dominant advantage of US dollar. The Chinese version of CBDC is likely to become the biggest magic weapon to promote the internationalization of RMB and end the hegemony of US dollar. The opportunity for RMB internationalization lies in the trend of de dollarization. Therefore, we need friendly countries other than US dollars to participate in China's digital currency. Taking the lead in the use of digital currency in block trading and financial settlement to bypass the restrictions on trading in US dollar will certainly realize the development of de dollarization and form a new currency trading system dominated by China and participated by many parties. So how to achieve it? In essence, it is to transfer benefits, so that non dollarized friendly countries can participate in the issuance process of CBDC, and even share the seigniorage of RMB. It is the most effective magic weapon to embody the spirit of democratization and benefit sharing of blockchain and bitcoin in the design of sovereign currency, which is also the most practical way to realize the internationalization of RMB.

4.

1、 What is digital currency RMB

with the development of Internet technology, especially blockchain technology, many so-called & lt; virtual currency;, Such as bitcoin and Wright currency, which are controversial in recent years

as a substitute for M0 (cash in circulation, i.e. cash in circulation outside the banking system), the difference between the central bank's digital currency and the virtual currency such as bitcoin is that bitcoin is decentralized, while the digital currency to be launched by the central bank is centralized

the central bank's digital currency is a legal digital currency issued by the central bank based on national credit, which is exactly the same as RMB cash and is equivalent to cash{ RRRRR}

it can be predicted that the era of digital RMB is coming. For commercial banks and other financial institutions, digital currency will lead to more innovations such as digital credit, digital assets and digital liabilities. In addition, the central bank can improve the efficiency of monetary operation monitoring and enrich monetary policy means after the issuance of digital currency

In addition, the issue of central bank's legal digital currency will make it possible to collect real-time data such as money creation, bookkeeping and flow. After data desensitization, it will conct in-depth analysis through big data and other technical means, so as to provide a useful reference for money supply, formulation and implementation of monetary policy, and provide a useful means for economic regulation

In the short term, the introction of digital currency has little impact on the exchange rate; Digital RMB & quot; At present, it seems that the aim is to partially digitize the currency in circulation (so there will be zero interest rate compensation, 100% reserve requirement and limited weakening of financial intermediaries, also known as & lt; Disintermediation, Considering China's current capital account restrictions (especially the restrictions on capital outflow), the introction of digital currency is unlikely to have a great impact on the trend of RMB exchange rate in the short term

the development of Sino US relations, portfolio capital flow, yield advantage and valuation are still the driving factors for RMB. Due to the outbreak of the second wave of the epidemic, there was an outflow of funds from the United States. This should also boost market confidence in the RMB in the short term

2、“ Digital RMB & quot; It is a milestone of RMB internationalization; Digital RMB & quot; The design of settlement technology is very complex and becomes ubiquitous (by making full use of the increasing popularity of mobile phones and Internet applications in China and the inclusion of RMB in the IMF's special drawing rights basket), which may promote the internationalization of RMB and the diversification of the current US dollar centered International Monetary System in the long run

conclusion: when the central bank issues digital currency, it focuses more on domestic factors. On the one hand, it is the trend of the times; on the other hand, it has many advantages. And the internationalization of RMB, more often, is a matter of course. The introction of digital currency by the people's Bank of China is a major change in the monetary system, both domestically and internationally

5. At present, the RMB has basically been peripheral. In Southeast Asia, RMB has become another "hard currency" next only to us dollar, euro and Japanese yen. In southwest border areas, RMB is known as "small US dollar" and used as a hard currency; In Northwest China, RMB mainly circulates in five Central Asian countries, Russia and Pakistan; In Northeast China, RMB mainly flows to Russia, North Korea and Mongolia; Hong Kong has the largest cross-border circulation of RMB, which can be freely convertible through various channels. In addition, RMB is also widely used in Macao

as for the regionalization and internationalization of RMB, we can graally seek monetary cooperation within the framework of ASEAN 10 + 1 pseudo economic cooperation. We can fix their respective exchange rates and float jointly with foreign countries. When the time is ripe, we can use strong RMB to replace other currencies or take RMB as the dominant currency to create a single currency and realize monetary unification. Secondly, it can expand to ASEAN 10 + 3 on the basis of ASEAN 10 + 1 and unite with Japan and South Korea. At that time, RMB will really grow into an international currency with far-reaching influence, just like the euro to Europe and the US dollar to America

secondly, in terms of monetary function, we should promote the internationalization of RMB in three steps, that is, adhere to the three-step strategy of RMB settlement currency, RMB investment currency and RMB reserve currency. In this process, we should steadily promote the process of RMB capital account convertibility, actively and steadily carry out offshore financial business, and graally implement the target area management of exchange rate

historically, which country's currency becomes a valuation currency in international trade and capital flow will take the initiative in international economic transactions. Take capital export as an example. Among the three capital flow centers in the world, when Britain and the United States were capital exporting countries, they all used their local currency as the valuation currency, while after the 1970s, when Japan was the capital export center, they used US dollar as the valuation currency. result; Japanese enterprises and financial institutions are very passive in dealing with the exchange rate risk in the foreign exchange market. When the yen rose sharply, these enterprises and financial institutions suffered huge losses. This is considered by many people as one of the important reasons for Japan's economic recession for more than a decade

for a large economic country, if the local currency can not comply with the trend of domestic trade growth and become the pricing currency of the open international financial market and trade, then the national currency will not become one of the major international reserve currencies. This means that the domestic currency has not obtained the international currency status which is relative to the total economic volume and the total trade volume. In order to deal with the macro financial risk of exchange rate fluctuations, the government must hold a large number of foreign exchange reserves. In today's international monetary system, US dollar and euro are the main pricing currencies in the international financial market, so US dollar and euro have become the main reserve currencies in the world. Correspondingly, the foreign exchange reserves of the United States and the European Union are very small. By the end of June 2007, the value of foreign exchange reserves of the United States was only US $41.5 billion, and that of the European Central Bank was only 41.4 billion euros. In contrast, in Asia, although Japan and China are among the top countries in the world in terms of economic aggregate, neither the Japanese yen nor the RMB has gained the status of an important pricing currency in the international financial market. As a result, China and Japan have the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world

with the development of China's economy, it should be our long-term goal to take corresponding strategies to graally integrate RMB into the international reserve currency system, break the current reserve currency pattern of the western world dominated by US dollar and euro, and promote the construction of multipolar reserve currency system. In this process, China should adopt a consistent graal strategy to promote the internationalization of RMB through the regionalization of RMB. At the same time, we should develop an open international asset market valued in RMB and provide more choices of RMB financial assets for foreign investors. Only after such a stage can RMB really gain the status of reserve currency, and we can get rid of the trouble of worrying about the amount of foreign exchange reserves.

6.

I think there are several reasons for the country to accelerate the promotion of digital currency:

first, digital currency is an important part of national security{ RRRRR}

although we have not yet seen the true face of digital currency, I believe that China's digital currency will shine in the world