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how to use the three technical indicators to understand the rise and fall of bitcoin
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recently, "bitcoin broke through $8000" has been on the hot search. For a while, bitcoin rose, reborn rose sharply, and Ethereum led the rise... A week later, this big play dominated by bitcoin didn't seem to come to an end, and the trading volume was once pushed up to 100 billion US dollars
in the investment world, "madness" and "fear" coexist. Today's "madness" stems from last year's long-term "fear". However, this time, coincola Cola Research Institute tracks and analyzes the technical indicators behind the rising market, and deconstructs the "passion" of the market with the "rationality" of data< (1) mining and bitcoin price
start with the relationship between mining and bitcoin. The core technology of bitcoin is "blockchain", which is connected by blocks. Each block corresponds to a bill. All transaction information and transfer records of bitcoin are recorded on the blockchain. Every other point in time, the bitcoin system will generate a random code on the system node. Due to distributed accounting, all computers on the Internet can search for the code. Whoever finds the code will generate a block and then get bitcoin. This process is mining. Calculating this random code requires a lot of GPU operations, so miners need to use mining machines with massive graphics cards to make profits
1. Bitcoin computing power: starting to pick up
remarks: June 2018-may 2019 bitcoin hash value
data source: bitcoin visual, coincola Research Institute
the above figure shows the bitcoin hash value. The hash value of the bitcoin network represents the computing power of the blockchain. The growth of computing power means that miners increase mining investment or increase the number of miners. Since the second half of 2018, the hash value has recovered from falling back to picking up, from 32eh / s at the end of the year to 50eh / s now, and the recent growth trend is remarkable. The continuous growth of bitcoin hash value (representing computing power) indicates that the market is optimistic about the future of bitcoin
2. Mining difficulty: stepped up
remarks: bitcoin difficulty from June 2018 to may 2019
data source: bitcoin visual, coincola Research Institute
the figure above shows bitcoin difficulty. Since 2019, the difficulty of bitcoin mining has increased in a step-by-step manner, from the low 5T to the current 7T. It can be seen that the rapid rise of bitcoin in this round has reced mining costs and increased market entry personnel. The increasing difficulty of mining means that there are profit opportunities in cryptocurrency market, and the market is generally optimistic< (2) the number of active addresses and transactions on the chain are important indicators reflecting the activity of cryptocurrency, which are highly correlated with the price of cryptocurrency
1. The number of active addresses on the bitcoin chain: a straight line rise
remarks: the number of active addresses on the bitcoin chain from June 2018 to may 2019
data source: coinmetrics, coincola Research Institute
active addresses refer to the addresses where transactions have taken place every day, that is, how many independent addresses conct transfer transactions on the chain every day. Since 2019, the number of active addresses on the bitcoin chain has been rising, especially in recent years. From 540.60143k in January to 832.592k now. It shows that the rapid growth of active users of cryptocurrency is a very positive signal for the market
2. The number of transactions on the bitcoin chain: continued to rise
remarks: the number of transactions on the bitcoin chain from June 2018 to may 2019
data source: bitinfo charts, coincola Research Institute
since 2019, the number of transactions on the bitcoin chain has continued to rise, from 235k in early 2019 to 374k now. Moreover, since April and may, after two rounds of sharp rise in the price of bitcoin, the number of transactions on the chain has remained at a high level, even showing signs of a short-term surge< (3) lightning network and bitcoin price
in essence, lightning network adds a layer to the basic layer of bitcoin blockchain in order to make the transaction fast and cheap. With the existence of lightning network, users can remit money to each other at any time and pay very little. Lightning network represents not only the technical level of bitcoin, but also the important basis of bitcoin value
1. Lightning network nodes: rapid growth
remarks: bitcoin lightning network nodes from January 2018 to may 2019
data source: bitinfo charts, coincola Research Institute
the test version of lightning network started on the bitcoin main network on March 15, 2018. The number of lightning network nodes was only 64 at the beginning of 2018 and increased to 2329 at the end of 2018. Since 2019, the number of lightning network nodes has increased rapidly, and now it has reached 4289. In less than half a year, the number of nodes has doubled. The continuous expansion of nodes indicates the continuous upgrading and development of bitcoin lightning network technology, which is an important indicator of bitcoin price
2. Lightning network capacity: speed up
remarks: bitcoin lightning network capacity from January 2018 to may 2019
data source: bitcoin visual, coincola Research Institute
the data above shows that as of May 15, 2019, bitcoin lightning network capacity has increased to 1039 BTC, equivalent to 833usd, while at the beginning of 2019, it is only 504btc, Lightning network capacity doubled, and the growth rate accelerated. This means that the expansion of bitcoin has been well solved in lightning network technology, which will help keep the payment channel active and effectively support the functional application of bitcoin
the performance of mining, chain trading and lightning network is closely related to the price of bitcoin. On the one hand, the rise of bitcoin price acts as a catalyst to stimulate its performance in mining, chain and lightning network; On the other hand, mining, chain trading and lightning network are the important cornerstone of bitcoin price trend and the important basis of bitcoin price expectation<
the right of the editor belongs to the author on May 21, 2019.
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the prediction about the collapse time of bitcoin
yesterday, he discussed bitcoin with people, and then suddenly found that the surge brought by the listing of futures may be the pit g by some big institutions, Bitcoin could collapse shortly after CME's CBOE listing. After the listing, the price will maintain a certain stability in a certain range
At the end of March this year, bitmainland launched an ant miner X3 based on ASIC, which is mainly aimed at Monroe coin (XmR) and cryptonight algorithm dependent cryptocurrency. Monroe coin immediately issued a counter statement that it will change the core algorithm to fight against the invasion of ASIC computing power
what would be the result if it appeared in the world of digital cryptocurrency? That is, the wrong calculation results may be brought into the whole network without being discovered
More importantly, if a "calculator manufacturer" monopolizes the calculator market, it can also deliberately proce this kind of calculator with errors to change the mathematical rulesafter all, the "calculation" in the field of crypto digital currency is not as simple as 1 + 2 + 3. You can't compare paper currency with special currency by hand
the practical significance of computing power monopoly in mainland China
we have learned about attacks based on 51% computing power in various articles
but the reality is that although the global power of 78% was in Chinese mainland, fortunately, they were scattered in different pools and controlled by different people. p>
although all POW based cryptocurrencies have the risk of being attacked by 51%, few people can really launch attacks e to the dispersion of computing power
but what if the miners themselves don't want to attack, but the mining machinery manufacturers attack
still using the analogy just now, although each miner subjectively wants to do the problem checking independently, their calculator is manipulated remotely and gives consistent wrong answers. This may pose a great threat to digital cryptocurrency
however, the manufacturer with the absolute voice of mining machinery had such a problem in mainland China
in April 2017, the back door of antbled came out. Although this is described as a "vulnerability" in Chinese, antbled is more like a function that has been implemented and designed
anonymous people found that after an ant miner made by bitmainland was connected to the network, it would communicate with a domain name held by bitmainland on a regular basis and return the miner's serial number, MAC address and IP address to bitmainland's server. If the server of bitcontinent gives a negative signal, the miner will stop running
although bitcontinental responded that they could not shut down any mining machines that did not belong to them. However, the bitcoin core team has proved in experiments that this function has no verification. Anyone can shut down mining machines by forging DNS - but it also means that bitcoin mainland has the ability to shut down any sold mining machines
After, bitcontinent fixed this "loophole", but it caused heated discussion in the community. This has also set the tone that almost all pow blockchain communities are biased against mainland China
a few months later, under the leadership of bitcontinent, viabtc g out the first block and made a hard bifurcation with the blockchain of bitcoin. From then on, bitcoin BCH (bitcoin cash) appeared in the world
will the monopoly of mining machinery destroy the distributed system
facing this problem, we should have a clear answer now. That is, the monopoly of mining machinery will certainly affect the safe operation of pow digital cryptocurrency
the problem is not whether bitcontinental and its founder Wu Jihan are trustworthy, but that one of the values of any blockchain system is to operate safely without trust in any single company or indivial
even if the ASIC miner is not monopolized by bitmainland, the ASIC miner itself will increase the concentration of computing power
the ASIC used for mining has great requirements for ventilation, power and site, and has no use except for mining. At the same time, the calculation difficulty of the whole network is increased e to the powerful computing power
as a result, it is very difficult for external players to start mining in the next software on the computer as they did five years ago. And the recent centralized exchange is caused by frequent black incidents, which also proves that concentration in this unregulated market will definitely lead to insecurity
assuming that the bitcoin network runs on top of one million miners, no one can shut it down. And if the bitcoin network runs on 20 large mines, it's much easier to shut it down
and by the end of 2017, 78% of the effort was concentrated in mainland China, which led to a real possibility of Chinese mainland regulators' launching a deadly attack against the special currency. p>
moreover, most of the scenarios of using digital cryptocurrency are related to "decentralization". Once centralized, it means that these scenarios no longer exist. It turns a project that might have value into a pure waste of computing power
Then, what measures should we take in the face of this situationfirst of all, as the project side, it may be time to give up the pure POW mechanism. In fact, in many projects of issuing cryptocurrency, especially in asset securitization projects. Similar to the concept of stock in the real world, POS itself is more reasonable than pow
in the media that don't know about blockchain, we often hear such words as "bitcoin wastes a lot of computing power and has no value", which is reasonable to some extent. It is difficult for a POW based blockchain to bind the value of the project itself to the issued digital cryptocurrency - because the real value behind the price of the currency does not come from the project, but from the cost of maintaining computing power
and the hybrid mode of pow + POS is more like the future. In the hybrid mode, both coin holders and miners can participate in the major decisions of this community. If a decision is widely accepted, the blockchain will be soft forked to the latest state without excessive intervention of developers, and there will be almost no private resistance of miners or mining machines
secondly, as a retail miner, if you are still digging a pure POW mechanism currency, you should unconditionally support the bifurcation activities initiated by the community to resist the ASIC mining machine, even if it will lead to the failure of your mining machine
this may sound contradictory, but in the long run, it is better to promote the reform of the community and get more benefits in a currency controlled by the monopoly of computing power. Because in many conflicts between computing power and community in the past, the ultimate result is that the computing power owner will forcibly keep the old algorithm to hard fork the blockchain
just like Eth and etc, the classic Ethereum (etc), which belongs to the computing power master, has lost the support of developers and become an air coin with no vitality and impossible to develop applications
as a retail leek, you should be careful to trade the non mainstream digital currencies (except bitcoin) supported by bitmainland mining machinery, so as to avoid falling into a blockchain in which bitmainland controls the computing power completely
finally, if you are bitcontinent, what should you do
bitcontinent's goal is to become Intel, AMD and NVIDIA, make greater contributions to the whole computer instry, and become a great company, not just entangled in the immediate interests of mining
Wall Street financiers have long seen through the violence brought about by NVIDIA's video card mining. The rise and fall of the company's stock price has been consistent with the price of bitcoin, and even affected by the digital currency market. Citron, a well-known short seller, has recently been bearish on NVIDIA, arguing that the company has focused too much on providing services for digital currency miners rather than on serious businesses such as artificial intelligence, games and driverless driving
the mission of chip manufacturers is to provide more powerful chips to drive more intelligent services, and finally contribute to the real world, rather than become monopoly tycoons in the virtual world. When we no longer enter the gate of the virtual world, the only thing left is a deserted land
in an interview with US media last year, Wu Jihan disclosed that he would make an IPO with a market value of billions of dollars. As a company about to go public, bitmainland should not only be responsible to investors, but also accept investors' questions about the sustainability of its business. "If your mining machinery goes public, it will encounter a fork, what should you do?"
and this question, which needs to be asked after the listing, has already appeared: the current price of the split coin xmo after the Monroe team split is $7.50, while the current price of the real Monroe coin XmR is $194, and the split coin is completely abandoned by the Monroe community
before bitcontinent becomes the name of all blockchain communities, we can rely on the huge amount of capital accumulated in recent years to transform into an artificial intelligence chip company along the previous plan, rather than continue to develop a variety of digital currency mining machines to extract the last drop of oil before the ecological collapse
content source: phoenix.com
It's a kind of virtual currency that attracts a wave of people to reap, and then it slowly exits. How can it reach a new high? There aren't so many idiots
1. When bitcoin is fried to $150000, a drop of $12000 seems insignificant, but this is not the final price limit< p> Bitcoin has only technology cost and service provider cost, and other things are fried. It has no so-called privacy ring the period. There are many similar mining activities, but it is the first to get up, so it is in the lead, and after other mining activities are yellow, it is still strong and can be fried higher and higher
the people who defend the legal line are much smarter than the people who want to play with the virtual currency. Why not put them in? It's because we are afraid that we will become others' leeks, but some of us have & lt; Society limits him to make money; My heart. Let me just ask you a question: if you have a lot of capital, you have 200 billion US dollars, will you take the opportunity of bitcoin's fall to buy it crazily, and then you will be able to understand what it is worth