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how to use the three technical indicators to understand the rise and fall of bitcoin
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recently, "bitcoin broke through $8000" has been on the hot search. For a while, bitcoin rose, reborn rose sharply, and Ethereum led the rise... A week later, this big play dominated by bitcoin didn't seem to come to an end, and the trading volume was once pushed up to 100 billion US dollars
in the investment world, "madness" and "fear" coexist. Today's "madness" stems from last year's long-term "fear". However, this time, coincola Cola Research Institute tracks and analyzes the technical indicators behind the rising market, and deconstructs the "passion" of the market with the "rationality" of data< (1) mining and bitcoin price
start with the relationship between mining and bitcoin. The core technology of bitcoin is "blockchain", which is connected by blocks. Each block corresponds to a bill. All transaction information and transfer records of bitcoin are recorded on the blockchain. Every other point in time, the bitcoin system will generate a random code on the system node. Due to distributed accounting, all computers on the Internet can search for the code. Whoever finds the code will generate a block and then get bitcoin. This process is mining. Calculating this random code requires a lot of GPU operations, so miners need to use mining machines with massive graphics cards to make profits
1. Bitcoin computing power: starting to pick up
remarks: June 2018-may 2019 bitcoin hash value
data source: bitcoin visual, coincola Research Institute
the above figure shows the bitcoin hash value. The hash value of the bitcoin network represents the computing power of the blockchain. The growth of computing power means that miners increase mining investment or increase the number of miners. Since the second half of 2018, the hash value has recovered from falling back to picking up, from 32eh / s at the end of the year to 50eh / s now, and the recent growth trend is remarkable. The continuous growth of bitcoin hash value (representing computing power) indicates that the market is optimistic about the future of bitcoin
2. Mining difficulty: stepped up
remarks: bitcoin difficulty from June 2018 to may 2019
data source: bitcoin visual, coincola Research Institute
the figure above shows bitcoin difficulty. Since 2019, the difficulty of bitcoin mining has increased in a step-by-step manner, from the low 5T to the current 7T. It can be seen that the rapid rise of bitcoin in this round has reced mining costs and increased market entry personnel. The increasing difficulty of mining means that there are profit opportunities in cryptocurrency market, and the market is generally optimistic< (2) the number of active addresses and transactions on the chain are important indicators reflecting the activity of cryptocurrency, which are highly correlated with the price of cryptocurrency
1. The number of active addresses on the bitcoin chain: a straight line rise
remarks: the number of active addresses on the bitcoin chain from June 2018 to may 2019
data source: coinmetrics, coincola Research Institute
active addresses refer to the addresses where transactions have taken place every day, that is, how many independent addresses conct transfer transactions on the chain every day. Since 2019, the number of active addresses on the bitcoin chain has been rising, especially in recent years. From 540.60143k in January to 832.592k now. It shows that the rapid growth of active users of cryptocurrency is a very positive signal for the market
2. The number of transactions on the bitcoin chain: continued to rise
remarks: the number of transactions on the bitcoin chain from June 2018 to may 2019
data source: bitinfo charts, coincola Research Institute
since 2019, the number of transactions on the bitcoin chain has continued to rise, from 235k in early 2019 to 374k now. Moreover, since April and may, after two rounds of sharp rise in the price of bitcoin, the number of transactions on the chain has remained at a high level, even showing signs of a short-term surge< (3) lightning network and bitcoin price
in essence, lightning network adds a layer to the basic layer of bitcoin blockchain in order to make the transaction fast and cheap. With the existence of lightning network, users can remit money to each other at any time and pay very little. Lightning network represents not only the technical level of bitcoin, but also the important basis of bitcoin value
1. Lightning network nodes: rapid growth
remarks: bitcoin lightning network nodes from January 2018 to may 2019
data source: bitinfo charts, coincola Research Institute
the test version of lightning network started on the bitcoin main network on March 15, 2018. The number of lightning network nodes was only 64 at the beginning of 2018 and increased to 2329 at the end of 2018. Since 2019, the number of lightning network nodes has increased rapidly, and now it has reached 4289. In less than half a year, the number of nodes has doubled. The continuous expansion of nodes indicates the continuous upgrading and development of bitcoin lightning network technology, which is an important indicator of bitcoin price
2. Lightning network capacity: speed up
remarks: bitcoin lightning network capacity from January 2018 to may 2019
data source: bitcoin visual, coincola Research Institute
the data above shows that as of May 15, 2019, bitcoin lightning network capacity has increased to 1039 BTC, equivalent to 833usd, while at the beginning of 2019, it is only 504btc, Lightning network capacity doubled, and the growth rate accelerated. This means that the expansion of bitcoin has been well solved in lightning network technology, which will help keep the payment channel active and effectively support the functional application of bitcoin
the performance of mining, chain trading and lightning network is closely related to the price of bitcoin. On the one hand, the rise of bitcoin price acts as a catalyst to stimulate its performance in mining, chain and lightning network; On the other hand, mining, chain trading and lightning network are the important cornerstone of bitcoin price trend and the important basis of bitcoin price expectation<
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DTCC is a clearing house in the United States, which processes billions of dollars of transactions every year. The global credit card processing network visa is only one of the most well-known pilot projects carried out by non banks. That is to say, some financial sectors are certainly more active than others
major stock and commodity exchanges can be said to be the most active institutions participating in blockchain experiments. For example, NASDAQ, a major U.S. stock exchange provider, even released its own blockchain trading model last fall. This program, called LINQ, can trade and track the shares of private companies. NASDAQ has positioned it as an early experiment of blockchain technology to expand the scope of major stock trading and even the scope of new asset classes< br />Blockchain_ Stock exchanges
although the subtle areas are more different, the 10 major stock and commodity exchanges in the world have shown interest in blockchain technology. In this article, we will give you a detailed introction:
1. Australian Stock Exchange (ASX)
when it comes to the application of blockchain technology, ASX is definitely one of the most ambitious companies. In January, ASX invested more than US $10 million in digital asset holdings, a start-up company in the instry, as part of its R & D activities
at the same time of investment, ASX also revealed that it will not only conct technical tests, but also establish a new post transaction settlement system, which will be developed by digital asset through the use of distributed general ledger structure
however, since January this year, the update progress of the project on the Australian Stock Exchange may have been overshadowed by controversy. In March this year, the Australian news media began to speculate that although the Australian Stock Exchange has reiterated its support for the experiment, the blockchain project may also be in doubt with the premature resignation of Elmer Funke Kupper, the chief executive of the Australian Stock Exchange< CME Group is one of the founders of "post trade distributed ledger working group". At present, CME Group has carried out very positive actions in the instry through its investment department CME ventures
CME Group is unique among its peers. It has been pursuing a diversified investment strategy across instries. It has successively invested in ripple, a distributed accounting start-up company, digital currency group and digital asset holdings. Beyond that, however, CME Group has yet to speak publicly about its actions in technology and the wider instry< br />3.Deutsche B� 0� 2rse
Deutsche B & 65533, the operator of Frankfurt Stock Exchange in Germany; 0� 2rse, another participant on the list, also participated in the $60 million financing of digital asset holdings in January< However, unlike its joint investor ASX, Deutsche B & 65533; 0� 2rse expresses less support for technology
in an interview in February this year, Deutsche B & 65533; 0� 2rse said it is concting a proof of concept for the technology, although it has not released any survey or test results
4. Du multi commodity trading center
in the Middle East, blockchain related activities are relatively rare, and this situation has continued until the recent opening of the global blockchain Council. With 32 members, the global blockchain Council is a group of start-ups, financial companies and technology giants to monitor the application of technology and its impact
based on these members, Du multi Commodities Center is a special economic zone and commodity circulation center responsible for supervising the trading of precious metals and other tangible commodities
DMCC announced in February that it is engaged in a technology experiment with bitoasis, a bitcoin start-up company, to explore how blockchain technology can improve its personnel's entry process< JPX is one of the most active stock market operators in Asia. In February, JPX announced its interest in the instry and has formed an alliance with IBM to become a user of blockchain-as-a-service (baas)
at that time, relevant reports said that the Japanese exchange group was concting a proof of concept study on the role of blockchain technology in creating a new low liquidity asset trading system, and the final results would be published in a report later this year
earlier this month, the Japanese stock exchange group also announced that it is working with the Nomura Research Institute (NRI) to test how technology can be applied to the stock market< Korea exchange is the only stock exchange in South Korea and one of the new entrants to this list. It announced in February that it will strive to launch a counter trading platform through blockchain technology
in a statement to the local news media, Korea Exchange said it hoped the technology would help rece costs. Details of the trial and the company's participation in the group were not released
7. London Stock Exchange (LSE)
LSE is one of the founders of "post trade distributed ledger working group". When it comes to experiments on blockchain technology, LSE is one of the most dynamic and low-key institutions
the London Stock Exchange is one of the largest groups to follow the steps of R3, a start-up company, and it is the first to say that large financial companies will seek to use cooperation mode to conct blockchain testing, which is beyond the framework of R3
since then, some large financial companies have begun to participate in private proof of concept and operation in certain areas of capital markets involving all parties
in addition, like Kouvola innovation and Japan exchange group, London Stock Exchange is one of the initial customers of IBM's blockchain-as-a-service (baas)
8. NASDAQ
when it comes to testing blockchain technology, NASDAQ is probably the most active organization. Nasdaq, the US stock market operator, launched LINQ, a private equity trading platform for the first time in 2015, and thus became the first financial institution to conct a proof of concept of blockchain. At present, the platform is still in the testing stage
in addition, NASDAQ has reached a cooperation with chain, a blockchain solution provider, and allowed its internal experts to talk openly about blockchain technology
in 2016, NASDAQ continued this momentum. More recently, it has revealed that it is working with Estonia's NASDAQ OMX Tallinn stock exchange to conct a trial to use blockchain technology to rece obstacles to shareholder voting
9. New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)
NYSE is one of the first companies interested in the instry. In 2015, NYSE issued two important statements, both of which are related to bitcoin
in January 2015, NYSE invested in coinbase, a bitcoin service company, as part of its round C financing. At that time, Jeffrey sprecher, chairman of NYSE, said the investment showed confidence in the fact that the millennials would widely use digital currency. He described the millennials as having a more progressive view of value exchange
in May, NYSE will continue to launch bitcoin price index, which will become a competitor of coindesk's bitcoin price index (BPI), which is based on the trading data of coinbase trading platform
10. TMX group
TMX group, the operator of Toronto Stock Exchange, has not clearly expressed its opinions on blockchain technology
however, with Anthony di Iorio (one of the co founders of Ethereum) employed as the organization's first chief digital technology officer, TMX also publicly expressed its interest in blockchain technology for the first time in March this year. Next generation network has become one of the most important blockchain applications in the eyes of the public after the proct release in March
nevertheless, TMX group has indicated that it is in the early stage of generating blockchain strategy, and it may conct technical testing soon
I think the risk of buying bitcoin is very high, because the project test may fail in the future. Because the crash is used for capital. However, bitcoin itself is not a capital disk
first, bitcoin has been recognized by mainstream institutions
whether you believe it or not, this is an objective fact. Bitcoin has existed for 10 years and is getting better and better! The development of bitcoin in the past decade should be described as a sudden surge. Of course, there have been no less than 1000 reports of bitcoin's death in the past decade. However, the more bitcoin lives, the better, and those who believe in bitcoin will eventually get rich returns. At present, bitcoin has been launched on some mainstream exchanges, especially the Intercontinental Exchange and CME exchange in the United States. These two exchanges are the same as the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges in China. Of course, they are larger in scale. After all, they are global exchanges
of course, in addition to Ethereum, there are many projects that have done very well. I won't elaborate here. However, more projects are likely to return to zero in the future, because even Ethereum and bitcoin can not guarantee their success, let alone other projects. Therefore, if you want to invest in digital currency, it is recommended to be cautious, and then be cautious, and do not invest with funds that you cannot afford
There are four, namely Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange and China Financial Futures Exchange
Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE)Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, founded on October 12, 1990, is the first futures exchange in China and the only futures exchange in central and Western China. It trades 16 futures varieties, including strong gluten wheat, common wheat, PTA, No.1 Cotton, sugar, rapeseed oil, early indica rice, glass, rapeseed, rapeseed, rapeseed meal and methanol, The number of listed contracts ranks first among the four futures exchanges in China
Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE)Shanghai Futures Exchange was established on November 26, 1990. At present, there are 11 futures varieties listed and traded, including gold, silver, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, rebar, wire rod, fuel oil, natural rubber asphalt, etc
Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), the only futures exchange in Northeast China, was established on February 28, 1993. Listed and traded are corn, soybean 1, soybean 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, polypropylene, PVC, plastic, coke, coking coal, iron ore, plywood, fiberboard, eggs and other 15 futures varieties China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX), the fourth futures exchange in China, was established in Shanghai on September 8, 2006. Trading varieties include stock index futures and treasury bond futures
extended data:
futures exchange is the place for trading futures contracts and the core of futures market. It is a kind of non-profit organization, but its non-profit only means that the exchange itself does not carry out trading activities, and not for profit does not mean that it does not pay attention to interest accounting
In this sense, the exchange is also a financial independent profit-making organization, which realizes reasonable economic benefits on the basis of providing an open, fair and just trading place and effective supervision services for traders, including membership fee income, transaction fee income, information service income and other incomea set of institutional rules established by it provides a self-management mechanism for the whole futures market, which makes the principle of "openness, fairness and justice" of futures trading realized
under the influence of economic globalization, there have been many mergers and reorganizations among exchanges. Nowadays, the most influential futures exchanges include:
China market
1, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange
Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was established in 1993. It is the first place in China to engage in grain and oil trading, and graally carry out other commodity futures trading. Its predecessor is China's Zhengzhou grain wholesale market, and its main trading varieties are wheat and high-quality strong gluten wheat
Dalian Commodity Exchange was established in November 1993, and the main varieties of soybean and soybean meal were listed and traded Shanghai Futures Exchange was formed by the merger of Shanghai Metal Exchange, Shanghai Commodity Exchange and Shanghai grain and oil exchange in 1998. Its main listed procts are copper, aluminum and natural rubberthe U.S. market is mainly Chicago and New York: Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOT) is good at agricultural procts and treasury bond futures, Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is famous for livestock procts, short-term interest rate Eurodollar procts and stock index futures, and Chicago Options Exchange (CBOE) is most successful in index options and indivial stock options; New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX): oil and precious metals
on October 17, 2006, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced a merger with the Chicago Board of trade (CBOT), which has been competing for 100 years in the same city
In June 2007, the merger plan of CME and CBOT was approved by the US Department of justice. On July 9, 2007, the shareholders of CME and CBOT voted to merge the two companies, making CME the largest futures exchange in the world
on March 17, 2008, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group and the New York Mercantile Exchange reached an agreement. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group acquired the latter in the form of stock and cash, involving about 9.4 billion US dollars
European markets are mainly European futures exchange (Eurex: mainly trading German government bonds and euro zone stock index futures) and Pan European trading (Euronext: mainly trading euro zone short-term interest rate futures and stock index futures), and there are also two London Commodity Exchanges: London Metal Exchange (LME: mainly trading base metals), euro zone short-term interest rate futures and stock index futures International Petroleum Exchange (IPE: mainly trading Brent crude oil and other energy procts)
the Asia Pacific market is dominated by Japan, South Korea, Singapore, India, Australia, the mainland of China, Hong Kong and Taiwan
Japan's futures market mainly includes commodity exchanges dominated by Tokyo instrial procts exchange (TOCOM: mainly energy and precious metal futures), Tokyo Grain Exchange (TGM: mainly agricultural procts futures), and Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE: mainly trading treasury bond futures and stock index futures) Osaka Stock Exchange (OSE: mainly trading Nikkei 225 index futures) and Tokyo International Financial Futures Exchange (TIFFE: mainly trading short-term interest rate futures)
The trading volume of options ranked first in the world in recent years. The futures market of SGX group is mainly listed on offshore stock index futures, such as Morgan Tai index futures, Nikkei 225 index futures, etcthe main futures in India include stock index futures and indivial stock futures listed on the stock exchange and commodity futures listed on the commodity exchange
Australian futures market is mainly local stock index and interest rate futures. In mainland China, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (trading futures of wheat, cotton, sugar and other agricultural procts), Dalian Commodity Exchange (trading futures of soybean, corn and other agricultural procts), Shanghai Futures Exchange (mainly trading futures of metal, energy, rubber and other instrial procts) and China Financial Futures Exchange (hereinafter referred to as CFFE) will list financial futures, First, we will list CSI 300 stock index futures
the futures markets in Hong Kong are mainly Hang Seng Index Futures and H-share index futures under the Hong Kong exchange group. The futures market in Taiwan mainly includes stock index futures and options listed on the Taiwan Futures Exchange
other markets
Central and South America are mainly Mexican derivatives exchange (mainly trading interest rate and exchange rate futures) and Brazil Futures Exchange (trading various financial and commodity futures). African futures market is mainly the futures market under the South African Stock Exchange, listing local financial futures
In June 2006, New York Stock Exchange and Pan European stock exchange have reached a merger agreement involving nearly 7.8 billion US dollarsreference: Internet futures exchange
the Hong Kong bitcoin exchange has closed down, with us $386 million of customers' funds missing,
this is another runaway
according to CME's official announcement, each contract will have 50 units of Ethereum, and the derivative will be open for trading from 5 pm to 4 pm from Sunday to Friday. "Building on the success of bitcoin futures and options, the CME Group will add Ethereum futures to the crypto asset risk management solution in February," the CME said
the Xueshuo innovation blockchain Technology Workstation of Lianqiao ecation online is the only approved "blockchain Technology Specialty" pilot workstation of "smart learning workshop 2020 Xueshuo innovation workstation" launched by the school planning, construction and development center of the Ministry of ecation of China. Based on providing diversified growth paths for students, the professional station promotes the reform of the training mode of the combination of professional degree research, proction, learning and research, and constructs the applied and compound talent training system.
1
bitcoin (BTC) is a digital currency with a total amount of 21 million. It has the characteristics of decentralization, globalization and anonymity, just like the Internet. Transferring bitcoin to the other side of the earth is as simple, low-cost and unlimited as sending e-mail. Bitcoin is therefore used in cross-border trade, payment, remittance and other fields. Of course, Ethereum and wikilink have similar functions
as a new thing, it is widely concerned by investors, enterprises and media< Many international companies and large enterprises have begun to test the digital money market, and their prospects are still quite good.
③ investors are influenced by people who already hold bitcoin and are afraid to miss the opportunity to make money
in 2017, the market value of bitcoin has increased several times by the end of the year despite the price fluctuation, which is enough to make the farsighted players make a lot of money. This is enough to make the spectators who have been hesitant but have not made a move particularly envious. In 2018, more people will participate in it
④ some people have lost their keys, So as to rece part of the supply
⑤ large financial institutions such as CME, COBE and Goldman Sachs began to support digital currency
with the rapid development of digital currency, all the institutions that didn't hold high hopes for bitcoin began to support the development of digital currency
with the pressure of national supervision and the supervision of relevant departments on electricity consumption, the cost of mining is becoming higher and higher, and accordingly, bitcoin will also rise with the tide
7. There may be hoarding< Many people have seen the great potential of bitcoin, so it's no surprise to hoard money.
in countries with serious inflation, bitcoin is a safe currency.
influenced by many factors, the legal hand has a separate competent department, which is prone to economic crisis under the influence of many factors, but the digital currency has no separate issuing department, And because of its virtuality, it is hard to be affected by external factors, and its security is higher. Coin purse, as the leader of digital currency purse in the market, advanced encryption technology has become multi-functional, simple and easy to operate. Players can choose and use it as the ideal purse for storing digital currency
9. Due to anonymity, illegal activities will continue to generate demand for special currency
the anonymity of digital currency determines that many illegal organizations will use bitcoin as an important means of transferring property to launder money, because there is no trace