An analysis of the sharp drop of Leyte currency today
Publish: 2021-03-31 01:32:15
1. To be honest, I may come into contact with bitcoin later than many of my peers, but I'm one of the quickest people to make a decision to join the instry. I learned from the news that Jet Li's one foundation was grateful to the enthusiasts who donated bitcoin. After less than ten minutes of thinking, I immediately decided to put down 90% of the projects I had completed and devote myself to this instry with incomparable prospects. I am a technology controller. Although I am not well-known in the Internet instry, I have operated no less than 10 it projects, and have cooperated with or established 7 companies. Among them, there are also successes and failures. The only instry that has not been involved is group buying, because I thought from the beginning that group buying deviated from its original appearance and would not be a very promising instry. But after learning about bitcoin, I feel that I have found a window, a window to the palace of ideals, a way to change the world. Today, I still insist on my choice, but the real use value of bitcoin in China is rarely reflected except for its speculative property. After multi-party analysis, I think the short-term downward trend is irreversible. Let's list the following factors that cause the price of bitcoin to fall:
first, the excessively free market - the copper price killer
bitcoin is born for freedom and lives for freedom, which has created a group of bitcoin fans who are crazy about pursuing freedom. The decentralization of the bitcoin exchange has been rampant for a time. The current situation of no supervision of the bitcoin exchange is obvious to all, and it can not be solved by itself, such as the forever anonymous dark village, the disorderly competition of mining machinery, etc. these important factors that are often ignored by people are also important drivers of the price drop
just think of the capitalist social system in the early days. People had great expectations and perseverance. They could sacrifice their lives for freedom and cut the rope on puppets at all costs. During the transition from feudal socialism to capitalism, people were like holding on to the water for several generations, suddenly came out to breathe fresh air, and no one was allowed to press themselves into the water again, The result is a social system of excessive freedom. The result of excessive freedom is that once someone obtains certain resources and social advantages, he can quickly devour everything around him like a black hole, forming a monopoly and giving birth to an oligarchy. They don't care about other people's lives, just like gladiators. If you lose, you have to bear all the consequences; If I win, I can enjoy some honor. But after all, oligarchs are a minority. Society is made up of thousands of ordinary people, so the system made up of people must be unstable and unreasonable. Therefore, modern capitalist society has learned to compromise. After learning from many advantages of capitalist society at that time, it is found that there are anti-monopoly laws, various anti-commercial bribery and other daily laws for proper supervision, In order to effectively delay the outbreak cycle of the financial crisis
the reason why so many words are used to describe capitalist society is that bitcoin has too many similarities with it. A brand new financial system does not depend on specific institutions or indivials, but also depends on all participants. With it, we can eliminate all external influences and keep our wallets. It's a great idea, but what about the reality? Holding a large amount of bitcoin, amzhuang can control the price of bitcoin. In the capital market, 1 billion yuan is only a very small amount. For the bitcoin market, it is enough to control the price rise and fall of any exchange, back and forth volatility, commonly known as "fleece". Easier said than done, as like as two peas in the market, you will be able to control the bitcoin in your hands. But you have to be in the market. For these makers, they can benefit from the ups and downs, because in the trend of the rising market, they will increase ring each shock period, and fall more every time the market falls. At the top of the pyramid, there are always only a few people
after more than a year of communication with players in the instry, we found that those who are still left behind are either deeply covered or persistent believers. Even if they are covered, only a few of them are entities. Most of the left behind are pure it houses, and they blush when they meet. Most of them have no financial experience, even few of them have speculated in stocks, so they are in shock, It's certain that Xiaosan will be injured< Another important factor is that, like stocks, the amount of cash in circulation is far less than the total value. Although several exchanges have not announced the amount of bitcoin and the total amount of RMB assets, it can be concluded from the data of mtgox's bankruptcy that the amount of cash announced by mtgox is US $40 million, Bitcoin is worth US $450 million, reaching a staggering 1:11. According to my preliminary understanding, the general comparison of domestic trading platforms is between 1:3 and 1:6, which is slightly better than mtfox, but it is also enough to illustrate the problem. Once the bear market comes, the power of shorting is far greater than that of long
although the stock market did not rise sharply last year, many people did profit from the stock market and attracted many of the few users who swayed between the stock market and bitcoin. Many of the professional investment users and deep-seated users who benefited from bitcoin also left the bitcoin instry for various reasons. The big reason is that for bitcoin, They think that in addition to speculation, it is a game played by technical talents. Although this is a misunderstanding, let's think about it from another perspective. If you are an investor outside the IT instry and face the world's largest trading platform, you will go bankrupt if it goes bankrupt. If bitcoin is stolen, it will be stolen without supervision and responsibility. What would you think? Therefore, the reason for today's situation is that the number of bitcoin has not decreased, but the capital is decreasing. Although there are many foreign advantages ring this period, the domestic situation has been declining. This is an indisputable fact
with the decrease of funds, long has lost enough momentum. The reason why there is no sharp decline is that there are still a number of bitcoin loyalists. Some of them have been engaged in bitcoin for several consecutive years, and almost every year they have to experience a similar slump. Therefore, they still firmly believe that this year is just a repetition of the market rules of previous years, and the final price will rise; Of course, I personally believe that in the long run, the trend of bitcoin will go up, but is it half a year or three to five years? I'm really not sure, because the biggest constant in the world is change. As the saying goes, the flowers are similar year by year, but the people are different year by year. The past experience may not be applicable to the present< Third, domestic policy - gold price killer
I don't know if the Americans have understood that it was not Japan, the United States, Europe, but China that decided the price of bitcoin in 2013. Made in China used to be a headache for foreigners. Now, they also realize the power of China's speculation. China's real estate speculators are like locusts everywhere they go. At present, China's speculators are also rapidly overdrawn the growth value of bitcoin. China, which has 80% of the world's trading volume, explicitly forbids the value of bitcoin as a medium of exchange, so it has no real value in China except for speculation
I believe that the world's understanding of the power of Chinese speculators in bitcoin began with the documents of five ministries and commissions, because before that, almost no organization participated in the international bitcoin conference. After that, many foreign media swarmed in, professional and unprofessional media came. This time, although the documents on April 15 have not been confirmed, the financial times interviewed bitcoin in advance, which shows that they recognize the power of Chinese speculators
why is an Internet proct that started in foreign countries so influenced by China's policies? This is not its main application place, which just reflects that the price of bitcoin is seriously out of its actual value line, artificially pushed up and overdrawn its value. In my opinion, without CCTV's report and China's participation, it would have been good for bitcoin to have a price of more than 1000 last year. It was also e to excessive attention, which created the fastest five ministerial documents in history< 4. Crazy miner - the ultimate price killer
the computing power of bitcoin miner has increased from 1p at the end of last year to more than 30p now. In less than five months, the price of bitcoin miner has dropped from 6000 to 2700 today. In other words, the number of miner has increased dozens of times, from CPU to motherboard, power supply, power supply, etc The chassis and processing costs are all paid in RMB. Just imagine how much cash flow the mining machine has taken from the whole bitcoin ecological chain. Once the cash flows into the hands of TSMC, motherboard factory and others, it will never be kept back. This is also the result of disorderly competition, once profitable, the number will never end! It is said that Shenzhen proces 90% of the world's computing power of mining machines, and each time the chips are streamed, the chips are less than 3.5 million, more than 20.3 million, not to mention the whole machine. A mining machine manufacturer I know in Shenzhen club said that he sold 1000 USB mining machines a minute, which shows the madness
to sum up, all aspects have exerted pressure on cash flow, so the continuous decline of bitcoin in the short term is caused by many reasons. Even without the 4.15 document, I believe a continuous decline process will be formed. As for the bottom, it depends on the belief of those who still hold fast to it and when the crazy mining machine will not continue, And the actual application of bitcoin in foreign countries
those who played with stocks in 2008 may find that bitcoin shares a striking resemblance to the price trend of stocks. If bitcoin goes up from 2000 to 5300, any good news, even an additional issue, will make stocks soar all the time. After that, although the stock surged to the highest point, the downward trend was like "defeat like a mountain". Any bad news would cause a decline. Coupled with the excessive issuance of new shares and serious overdraft of market cash, the a share once fell back to about 1600 points. Although it rebounded to more than 3000 points, it would still jump to about 2000 points. After several years of shock, it did not improve
bitcoin plate is small and easy to rise and fall. However, if the retail investors are excessively injured, bitcoin's loyalty can only be powerless to let bitcoin rise. The false rise of the makers will face a lot of market capital pressure and can only follow the trend
at present, there are several companies in the whole instry that can support short selling, such as fire coin, China bitcoin and okcoin, which also aggravates the dection process
of course, I am still very optimistic about the long-term development of bitcoin, but I really can't see how to break the current deadlock. The purpose of this article is to provide some personal opinions for the majority of small businesses. Maybe you are more in-depth and complete than I think, but finance is nothing more than that
first, the excessively free market - the copper price killer
bitcoin is born for freedom and lives for freedom, which has created a group of bitcoin fans who are crazy about pursuing freedom. The decentralization of the bitcoin exchange has been rampant for a time. The current situation of no supervision of the bitcoin exchange is obvious to all, and it can not be solved by itself, such as the forever anonymous dark village, the disorderly competition of mining machinery, etc. these important factors that are often ignored by people are also important drivers of the price drop
just think of the capitalist social system in the early days. People had great expectations and perseverance. They could sacrifice their lives for freedom and cut the rope on puppets at all costs. During the transition from feudal socialism to capitalism, people were like holding on to the water for several generations, suddenly came out to breathe fresh air, and no one was allowed to press themselves into the water again, The result is a social system of excessive freedom. The result of excessive freedom is that once someone obtains certain resources and social advantages, he can quickly devour everything around him like a black hole, forming a monopoly and giving birth to an oligarchy. They don't care about other people's lives, just like gladiators. If you lose, you have to bear all the consequences; If I win, I can enjoy some honor. But after all, oligarchs are a minority. Society is made up of thousands of ordinary people, so the system made up of people must be unstable and unreasonable. Therefore, modern capitalist society has learned to compromise. After learning from many advantages of capitalist society at that time, it is found that there are anti-monopoly laws, various anti-commercial bribery and other daily laws for proper supervision, In order to effectively delay the outbreak cycle of the financial crisis
the reason why so many words are used to describe capitalist society is that bitcoin has too many similarities with it. A brand new financial system does not depend on specific institutions or indivials, but also depends on all participants. With it, we can eliminate all external influences and keep our wallets. It's a great idea, but what about the reality? Holding a large amount of bitcoin, amzhuang can control the price of bitcoin. In the capital market, 1 billion yuan is only a very small amount. For the bitcoin market, it is enough to control the price rise and fall of any exchange, back and forth volatility, commonly known as "fleece". Easier said than done, as like as two peas in the market, you will be able to control the bitcoin in your hands. But you have to be in the market. For these makers, they can benefit from the ups and downs, because in the trend of the rising market, they will increase ring each shock period, and fall more every time the market falls. At the top of the pyramid, there are always only a few people
after more than a year of communication with players in the instry, we found that those who are still left behind are either deeply covered or persistent believers. Even if they are covered, only a few of them are entities. Most of the left behind are pure it houses, and they blush when they meet. Most of them have no financial experience, even few of them have speculated in stocks, so they are in shock, It's certain that Xiaosan will be injured< Another important factor is that, like stocks, the amount of cash in circulation is far less than the total value. Although several exchanges have not announced the amount of bitcoin and the total amount of RMB assets, it can be concluded from the data of mtgox's bankruptcy that the amount of cash announced by mtgox is US $40 million, Bitcoin is worth US $450 million, reaching a staggering 1:11. According to my preliminary understanding, the general comparison of domestic trading platforms is between 1:3 and 1:6, which is slightly better than mtfox, but it is also enough to illustrate the problem. Once the bear market comes, the power of shorting is far greater than that of long
although the stock market did not rise sharply last year, many people did profit from the stock market and attracted many of the few users who swayed between the stock market and bitcoin. Many of the professional investment users and deep-seated users who benefited from bitcoin also left the bitcoin instry for various reasons. The big reason is that for bitcoin, They think that in addition to speculation, it is a game played by technical talents. Although this is a misunderstanding, let's think about it from another perspective. If you are an investor outside the IT instry and face the world's largest trading platform, you will go bankrupt if it goes bankrupt. If bitcoin is stolen, it will be stolen without supervision and responsibility. What would you think? Therefore, the reason for today's situation is that the number of bitcoin has not decreased, but the capital is decreasing. Although there are many foreign advantages ring this period, the domestic situation has been declining. This is an indisputable fact
with the decrease of funds, long has lost enough momentum. The reason why there is no sharp decline is that there are still a number of bitcoin loyalists. Some of them have been engaged in bitcoin for several consecutive years, and almost every year they have to experience a similar slump. Therefore, they still firmly believe that this year is just a repetition of the market rules of previous years, and the final price will rise; Of course, I personally believe that in the long run, the trend of bitcoin will go up, but is it half a year or three to five years? I'm really not sure, because the biggest constant in the world is change. As the saying goes, the flowers are similar year by year, but the people are different year by year. The past experience may not be applicable to the present< Third, domestic policy - gold price killer
I don't know if the Americans have understood that it was not Japan, the United States, Europe, but China that decided the price of bitcoin in 2013. Made in China used to be a headache for foreigners. Now, they also realize the power of China's speculation. China's real estate speculators are like locusts everywhere they go. At present, China's speculators are also rapidly overdrawn the growth value of bitcoin. China, which has 80% of the world's trading volume, explicitly forbids the value of bitcoin as a medium of exchange, so it has no real value in China except for speculation
I believe that the world's understanding of the power of Chinese speculators in bitcoin began with the documents of five ministries and commissions, because before that, almost no organization participated in the international bitcoin conference. After that, many foreign media swarmed in, professional and unprofessional media came. This time, although the documents on April 15 have not been confirmed, the financial times interviewed bitcoin in advance, which shows that they recognize the power of Chinese speculators
why is an Internet proct that started in foreign countries so influenced by China's policies? This is not its main application place, which just reflects that the price of bitcoin is seriously out of its actual value line, artificially pushed up and overdrawn its value. In my opinion, without CCTV's report and China's participation, it would have been good for bitcoin to have a price of more than 1000 last year. It was also e to excessive attention, which created the fastest five ministerial documents in history< 4. Crazy miner - the ultimate price killer
the computing power of bitcoin miner has increased from 1p at the end of last year to more than 30p now. In less than five months, the price of bitcoin miner has dropped from 6000 to 2700 today. In other words, the number of miner has increased dozens of times, from CPU to motherboard, power supply, power supply, etc The chassis and processing costs are all paid in RMB. Just imagine how much cash flow the mining machine has taken from the whole bitcoin ecological chain. Once the cash flows into the hands of TSMC, motherboard factory and others, it will never be kept back. This is also the result of disorderly competition, once profitable, the number will never end! It is said that Shenzhen proces 90% of the world's computing power of mining machines, and each time the chips are streamed, the chips are less than 3.5 million, more than 20.3 million, not to mention the whole machine. A mining machine manufacturer I know in Shenzhen club said that he sold 1000 USB mining machines a minute, which shows the madness
to sum up, all aspects have exerted pressure on cash flow, so the continuous decline of bitcoin in the short term is caused by many reasons. Even without the 4.15 document, I believe a continuous decline process will be formed. As for the bottom, it depends on the belief of those who still hold fast to it and when the crazy mining machine will not continue, And the actual application of bitcoin in foreign countries
those who played with stocks in 2008 may find that bitcoin shares a striking resemblance to the price trend of stocks. If bitcoin goes up from 2000 to 5300, any good news, even an additional issue, will make stocks soar all the time. After that, although the stock surged to the highest point, the downward trend was like "defeat like a mountain". Any bad news would cause a decline. Coupled with the excessive issuance of new shares and serious overdraft of market cash, the a share once fell back to about 1600 points. Although it rebounded to more than 3000 points, it would still jump to about 2000 points. After several years of shock, it did not improve
bitcoin plate is small and easy to rise and fall. However, if the retail investors are excessively injured, bitcoin's loyalty can only be powerless to let bitcoin rise. The false rise of the makers will face a lot of market capital pressure and can only follow the trend
at present, there are several companies in the whole instry that can support short selling, such as fire coin, China bitcoin and okcoin, which also aggravates the dection process
of course, I am still very optimistic about the long-term development of bitcoin, but I really can't see how to break the current deadlock. The purpose of this article is to provide some personal opinions for the majority of small businesses. Maybe you are more in-depth and complete than I think, but finance is nothing more than that
2. There is a lot of discussion about "Wright is dead" on the Internet, mainly because of the sharp drop in its price in the past few months
is the Wright coin dying? In fact, for many reasons, it is not reliable to say that Leyte currency is extinct or that it has lost its second place in virtual currency. There are also signs that the rumors are coming from other virtual currency supporters, not from the lettercoin community. There are still many advantages to lightcoin, which can make it the second largest virtual currency in the world. Now they need to focus on the miners
is the Wright coin dying? In fact, for many reasons, it is not reliable to say that Leyte currency is extinct or that it has lost its second place in virtual currency. There are also signs that the rumors are coming from other virtual currency supporters, not from the lettercoin community. There are still many advantages to lightcoin, which can make it the second largest virtual currency in the world. Now they need to focus on the miners
3. Lightcoin
and bitcoin
can only be traded in the special
virtual currency
trading website
at present, China does not use virtual currency as the official
settlement tool
, in other words, the domestic central bank does not recognize this kind of virtual currency, please invest carefully
and bitcoin
can only be traded in the special
virtual currency
trading website
at present, China does not use virtual currency as the official
settlement tool
, in other words, the domestic central bank does not recognize this kind of virtual currency, please invest carefully
4. Lightcoin is a kind of digital virtual currency, which is similar to but different from bitcoin. These virtual digital currencies are calculated by mathematical algorithm program to get a series of numbers and letters
today, the price of bitcoin shows a small floating decline again. At present, the price of bitcoin is below 2800 yuan. However, e to the joint mining of dog coin and the surge of computing power, dog coin has escaped 51% of the attack. Therefore, dog coin has almost doubled by more than 3% and once rose to 3%. Today, dog coin and some other counterfeit coins show a small floating growth. Of course, bitstocks are also black horses
it is said that bitcoin will enter the cold winter, and the violent era of bitcoin mining has come to an end, and mining is almost close to the cost. The founder of Avalon mining machine also said that at present bitcoin mining is basically determined by electricity price. Avalon's generation 4 28nm chip does rece energy consumption a lot.
today, the price of bitcoin shows a small floating decline again. At present, the price of bitcoin is below 2800 yuan. However, e to the joint mining of dog coin and the surge of computing power, dog coin has escaped 51% of the attack. Therefore, dog coin has almost doubled by more than 3% and once rose to 3%. Today, dog coin and some other counterfeit coins show a small floating growth. Of course, bitstocks are also black horses
it is said that bitcoin will enter the cold winter, and the violent era of bitcoin mining has come to an end, and mining is almost close to the cost. The founder of Avalon mining machine also said that at present bitcoin mining is basically determined by electricity price. Avalon's generation 4 28nm chip does rece energy consumption a lot.
5. It can't be simply attributed to the exchange. Sometimes there are sudden short-term fluctuations, and the exchange does participate. But the main topic is about the monthly time span, which is difficult for the exchange to control. It is more the result of the joint operation of hot money and large institutions. However, the sharp decline of the overall currency value can't be separated from the basic economic principle: the relationship between supply and demand, This is beyond anyone's control
6. Hello, I am a friend of mine who is playing Leyte coin. You'd better not take care of this thing
this is not an investment, but a high-risk speculative game. The instry is in chaos
at present, I am losing 60% of my capital. It's a bloody game.
this is not an investment, but a high-risk speculative game. The instry is in chaos
at present, I am losing 60% of my capital. It's a bloody game.
7. Yes, it can always be invested.
8. I'm very sorry, Samsung mobile phone official website doesn't provide software. As there are risks in brushing the machine, such as problems caused by self brushing the machine, which may affect the warranty repair, we do not recommend you to brush the machine by yourself
if the mobile phone can't be used normally e to system failure or has problems after self brushing, it is recommended that you send the machine to the after-sales service center for inspection and treatment by the engineer
supplement:
1. Due to the instability and compatibility problems of some third-party websites or forums, it is not recommended to try to swipe the computer if they are not professionals
2. In order to improve the user experience, Samsung mobile phone provides system update service. If there is a new firmware, there will be push update notification. You can perform the following operations: settings - (about mobile phone / about device) - System Update - Automatic Update - turn on.
if the mobile phone can't be used normally e to system failure or has problems after self brushing, it is recommended that you send the machine to the after-sales service center for inspection and treatment by the engineer
supplement:
1. Due to the instability and compatibility problems of some third-party websites or forums, it is not recommended to try to swipe the computer if they are not professionals
2. In order to improve the user experience, Samsung mobile phone provides system update service. If there is a new firmware, there will be push update notification. You can perform the following operations: settings - (about mobile phone / about device) - System Update - Automatic Update - turn on.
9. China's central parity rate was cut by about 2% on Tuesday (August 11), resulting in the biggest one-day drop in the Yuan's exchange rate in history. The Chinese government continued to cut the central parity rate on Wednesday (August 12). The question is, what does that mean? To this, all markets give some preliminary answers immediately< One more reason for the fed to delay raising interest rates is that the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell by more than 5% on Wednesday, then narrowed to 2.12%. Therefore, the most direct real impact of RMB depreciation is that the United States may maintain low interest rates for a longer period of time
the US Federal Reserve (FED) is likely to maintain low interest rate policy because the slowdown in China's economic growth may help the Fed confirm that the US economic situation is still weak and that it still needs to maintain interest rates near zero. But it remains to be seen whether this will be enough to offset the strong trend in the US labor market. The strong labor market is expected to push the fed to raise interest rates in September or October this year< The devaluation of RMB means that China's cost of purchasing oil, copper, coal and other commodities will rise. This may also indicate that the Chinese authorities are worried that China's economic weakness has exceeded the 7% economic growth rate announced in the first half of this year, resulting in reced demand for commodities
as mentioned above, the devaluation of the RMB has triggered concerns about China's economic slowdown, which is one of the reasons why oil prices fell about 4% on Wednesday. However, the devaluation of the RMB is not good news for some exporters, which is not concive to exporting copper and other manufacturing commodities that need Australian coal to provide energy< Thirdly, the devaluation of RMB may force other countries to devalue their currencies. However, in its analysis report in March, Morgan
Stanley predicted that the RMB would fall by about 15%, which is far higher than the current decline and may cause other Asian currencies to depreciate by 5-7%< Fourth, the impact on the US economy is limited. According to Goldman Sachs analyst MK Tang, the devaluation of RMB is not enough to offset the appreciation of RMB last year. Therefore, it is unlikely to affect China's economic growth rate rapidly. Tang explained that it is too early to talk about whether a 2% decline is enough because the central bank wants to change the way the government evaluates the yuan and make it more market-oriented
if China's economic growth does slow down significantly, it will have little impact on the United States. David kostin, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, said that China's GDP growth rate fell by 1 basis point per year, while the US GDP may decline by 0.06%. This impact can be reflected from the second quarter reports of caterpillar and other companies, and the impact may be concentrated on instrial enterprises< 5. China's real goal may be to maintain prestige and long-term stability.
China has been trying its best to hope that RMB can be included in the international reserve currency by the International Monetary Fund. To win the so-called low special drawing rights, China must prove that the yuan is "freely available.". Analysts said in a March report that the IMF rejected the yuan in 2010 because it was not "freely available.". The inclusion of SDR basket will promote China's overall rection of capital control. In particular, it may promote the market-oriented transformation of RMB exchange rate mechanism
according to experts in Asia, the result of RMB devaluation may persuade more central banks to hold RMB foreign exchange reserves, stabilize their value, or be able to buy RMB denominated commodities and other commodities. SDR may also rece the borrowing costs of Chinese exporters
from this point of view, for the sake of long-term interests, China's devaluation of RMB may suffer short-term pain.
the US Federal Reserve (FED) is likely to maintain low interest rate policy because the slowdown in China's economic growth may help the Fed confirm that the US economic situation is still weak and that it still needs to maintain interest rates near zero. But it remains to be seen whether this will be enough to offset the strong trend in the US labor market. The strong labor market is expected to push the fed to raise interest rates in September or October this year< The devaluation of RMB means that China's cost of purchasing oil, copper, coal and other commodities will rise. This may also indicate that the Chinese authorities are worried that China's economic weakness has exceeded the 7% economic growth rate announced in the first half of this year, resulting in reced demand for commodities
as mentioned above, the devaluation of the RMB has triggered concerns about China's economic slowdown, which is one of the reasons why oil prices fell about 4% on Wednesday. However, the devaluation of the RMB is not good news for some exporters, which is not concive to exporting copper and other manufacturing commodities that need Australian coal to provide energy< Thirdly, the devaluation of RMB may force other countries to devalue their currencies. However, in its analysis report in March, Morgan
Stanley predicted that the RMB would fall by about 15%, which is far higher than the current decline and may cause other Asian currencies to depreciate by 5-7%< Fourth, the impact on the US economy is limited. According to Goldman Sachs analyst MK Tang, the devaluation of RMB is not enough to offset the appreciation of RMB last year. Therefore, it is unlikely to affect China's economic growth rate rapidly. Tang explained that it is too early to talk about whether a 2% decline is enough because the central bank wants to change the way the government evaluates the yuan and make it more market-oriented
if China's economic growth does slow down significantly, it will have little impact on the United States. David kostin, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, said that China's GDP growth rate fell by 1 basis point per year, while the US GDP may decline by 0.06%. This impact can be reflected from the second quarter reports of caterpillar and other companies, and the impact may be concentrated on instrial enterprises< 5. China's real goal may be to maintain prestige and long-term stability.
China has been trying its best to hope that RMB can be included in the international reserve currency by the International Monetary Fund. To win the so-called low special drawing rights, China must prove that the yuan is "freely available.". Analysts said in a March report that the IMF rejected the yuan in 2010 because it was not "freely available.". The inclusion of SDR basket will promote China's overall rection of capital control. In particular, it may promote the market-oriented transformation of RMB exchange rate mechanism
according to experts in Asia, the result of RMB devaluation may persuade more central banks to hold RMB foreign exchange reserves, stabilize their value, or be able to buy RMB denominated commodities and other commodities. SDR may also rece the borrowing costs of Chinese exporters
from this point of view, for the sake of long-term interests, China's devaluation of RMB may suffer short-term pain.
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