Ethereum bull market forecast

1.

Ethereum is likely to rise to 10000 in 2021

institutional investors and big capital are increasingly interested in cryptocurrency. The attention of all whales, and the attention of all the public, is focused on bitcoin. Since the global health and safety incident triggered the market crash in March 2020, the growth of eth has reached 1200%

while BTC only increased by 700%. Of course, in the context of bitcoin's record high price of 40000, Ethereum's rise to $1400 does not seem so impressive. In addition, the market value of eth is five times the trading volume of BTC market

extended information:

the increase of Ethereum is as follows:

the transaction volume recorded on Ethereum blockchain exceeds US $1 trillion. These figures exceed the transaction volume of payment giants such as PayPal, which is used by more than 350 million users and whose average transaction volume is generally less than $200 billion per quarter

each transaction will generate network fees paid by eth. Moreover, as the growth rate of the network is still very high, we can confidently expect the "bull market" trend of eth to continue. In any case, interest in cryptocurrency is growing, as are the number of active wallets, the number of transactions on the Internet, and the average size of transactions

2. 2020 is the first year of proction rection. Everyone turns to BTC, BCH, BSV and other currencies. However, you forget eth. As the king of the public chain, ETH will usher in the big upgrade of 2.0 super version in 2020, switching from the pow mechanism to the POS mechanism. In addition, it will face proction rection in March next year, and its circulation will be reced by 10 times. Its impact is no less than that of bitcoin proction. Since the beginning of the year, the trading volume of eth has grown explosively, and the institutional capital has poured in to preempt the layout. However, the current price of eth is only 260 US dollars. With many super favorable blessings, the market expects eth to usher in a super bull market< In theory, the circulation of next year will be reced by 10 times. In theory, the current price of eth is 260x4 = US $1040 (upgrade + expected price after proction rection)

ring this period, the return comparison between holding spot and ETF fund is as follows:

1. Holding spot makes 4 times of profit
2. Holding Ethereum ETF fund makes 12 times of profit, Up to 30 times (intelligent position adjustment + fund compound interest calculation)

there is no doubt that the Ethereum ETF launched by bitoffer is the best investment choice!

3.

My prediction method is that the MACD will be reced to 60 degrees, and the comparative prediction will be made in 2007 and 2008. From 4600, we know that this is a bear market

How to predict? Forecast method:

(Rough forecast) in 2007, 2008, MACD decline angle compared with this year, 2015

(accurate forecast) whether the number of account opening is reced (the number of account opening is very important, when the number of account opening is reced, it largely indicates the beginning of bear, which is very accurate)

because the daily moving average of 5000 points crosses each other, And the day before yesterday saw 60 minutes a Yin wear 4 lines, to fall. So we have escaped several stock market disasters from 5000 to 3600

the picture is a rough prediction of the formation of bull and bear markets. The most accurate prediction: the number of accounts opened has decreased significantly

4.

There will be a bull market for a shares in the next year. It is expected that the full bull market will start from March to June next year. In the next few months, a shares will continue to build a bull market bottom

in fact, a shares are in a bull market now, and the current bull market has been going for more than a year. It can be proved that it is a bull market from the following three aspects:

first, the three major indexes have completely formed a rising trend, especially the gem and Shenzhen stock index have gone bull completely, and the Shanghai stock index is not obvious

Second, there are many bull stocks and demon stocks in the stock market, and the appearance of bull stocks and demon stocks in indivial stocks is the best proof that the current A-share market has gone bull. If the stock market is a bear market, it is impossible to have so many bull stocks, let alone so many demon stocks

the fourth stage, the end of the bull market

the end of the bull market means that after the bull market crazy, after the crazy is a bull market to accelerate the top trend, at this time the market is also crazy, began to attract more in the high trend

at the end of the bull market, the biggest feature is that the securities sector entered the collective adjustment, and then junk stocks, problem stocks rose, after the bull market ended

these are the whole process of the whole bull market of the stock market, and the biggest characteristics of each stage of the bull market. Different stages of the bull market have different characteristics

and the current A-share market is at the end of the transition from the first stage of the bull market to the second stage of the bull market, and the bottom of the bull market is near the end, which means that it will enter the middle stage of the bull market

it will take two years to complete the bottom of the historical bull market. According to this calculation, it has been one year and nine months for the current A-share market to build the bull market bottom, and the next few months will complete the bull market bottom, and then directly enter the middle of the bull market. According to this reasoning, we will see A-share market go bull in the first half of 2021

from the above analysis, we can see that the stock market in 2021 will be dominated by bull market. In the first half of the year, the bull market will run to the mid bull market, and the bull market in the second half of the year is very obvious. Let's look forward to the bull market next year

5. To analyze this problem, we must first understand how the bull market over the years came into being< Since the 21st century, there have been three real bull markets in China:
in 2000, from 1100 on May 29, 1999 to 2245 on June 14, 2001
in 2007, from 998 in June 2005 to 6124 in October 2007
in 2015, from 2026 in April 2014 to 5178 in June 2015
of the three bull markets, only 2007 was a real natural bull market, while the other two rounds were actually policy markets
one was in 2000, that is, the 5.19 market. At that time, the stock market was influenced by the US internet bubble. The domestic Internet technology stocks led China's A shares to go straight to 1700 points, and after a period of callback,
broke through 2245 of the historical high.

behind this bull market, in addition to policy support, another very important factor is the market interest rate cut. The benchmark interest rate of one-year deposit has dropped from 11% to 2.25%. Such a rate cut is unprecedented, which contributes to the improvement of stock asset valuation
then the second wave was the biggest bull market in the history of a shares, 6124 points! At that time, the bull market started after the reform of non tradable shares in May 2005, the fundamentals were improving, a large number of open-end funds were issued, the RMB was expected to appreciate, and the capital entered the market in an all-round way. The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 998 to 6124, which can be said to be the beginning of the era of nationwide stock speculation
behind this round of stock market, many people see the craziness of shareholders, the bubble of the stock market and the partial expansion of small and medium sized businesses. This bull market rally is reasonable and necessary, because the composite net profit growth rate of the Shanghai Composite Index in the past 03 to 07 years is close to 30%, and the fundamentals are enough to support the rising share price.
the most recent bull market started in November 2014. At that time, the central bank cut interest rates sharply and successively reced the one-year deposit rate from 3.5% to 1.5%, which boosted the attractiveness of stock assets. Then it cut reserve requirements for three consecutive times and lowered the deposit reserve ratio from 21.5% to 18%, releasing a lot of money. In addition, the conditions for margin trading were extremely loose, It has created a balance of nearly 2 trillion for the market, thus leading to a wave of leverage bulls, and the stock market has directly reached 5178 points from 2000 points
this round of bull market is a typical policy market, because at that time, the A-share market was not optimistic from the fundamental point of view, and the growth rate of GDP and enterprise net profit all bottomed out, while the bull market was smashed out purely under the multiple support of policies
judging from the above three rounds of bull market, three questions are raised:
can the rection of interest rate and reserve ratio promote the stock market
it does help, because the bull market in 2000 and the bull market in 14 years are related to the interest rate rection. The interest rate rection will rece the income of other fixed assets, thus indirectly pushing up the value of equity assets. The rection of the standard will release money, and the inflow into the stock market will promote the rise of asset prices
on the contrary, will the increase of interest rate and the increase of reserve ratio lead to the decline of the stock market
this conclusion is not entirely correct. For example, in the bull market in 2007, the benchmark interest rate of one-year deposits has been increasing from the lowest 2.25% to 4.14%, and the deposit reserve ratio has been rising from the lowest 8% to 17.5%. However, the two negative factors have no effect on the bull market to hit 6124 points
therefore, the adjustment of benchmark interest rate and deposit reserve ratio does not have an absolute impact on the market
then, how does the change of net profit affect the stock market
we look for the time period when the net profit of the Shanghai composite index increased significantly, and find that it mainly concentrated in 2003 to 2007, in which the net profit of the Shanghai composite index increased by 31% in 2003, 34% in 2004, 1.8% in 2005, 33% in 2006 and 57% in 2007, while in other years, the net profit of the Shanghai composite index increased by 37% in 10 years
therefore, the performance of 2003-07 alone contributed 373% to the net profit growth of the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased the net profit to 4.73 times
what is this concept? In 2002, the price earnings ratio of Shanghai Stock Exchange was 1434 points, which was 45 times. In 2007, the price earnings ratio of a shares was 47 times. From the perspective of valuation, there was not much change, but the increase of net profit was even enough to support a shares to rise to 7000 points or even higher
but why did the market crash after 6124
because the growth rate of net profit in 2008 dropped to - 14.67%, the fundamentals were unable to support
so instead of A bubble burst, and more accurately, earnings growth should not keep pace.
here we understand that the growth of the market essentially depends on the growth of the net profit of a shares
if the net profit does not rise sharply, but leads to a bull market, we call it artificial cattle. The reason why we all call A-share a policy market is that there are too many artificial cattle
however, an artificial bull market without fundamental support will not be able to make it to the sky. Therefore, in 15 years, the price earnings ratio of the Shanghai composite index was only 20 times

having said so much, is there any chance for our A shares now
let's first look at how much the net profit of Shanghai Composite Index enterprises increased from 11 to 17 years:
12.67% in 11 years
12 years 2.21%
13 years 13.64%
14 years 5.03%
15 years - 3.6%
16 years 1.06%
17 years 17.88%
it took seven years for net profit to rise by 57.8%, even worse than the S & P index in the same period
so why can't a shares rise? Because you can't go up, the market starts to kill the valuation, and the P / E ratio and market value will naturally fall
from this, several rules are summarized
1) basically good, net profit growth is the core reason for the bull market
2) the market may also prosper irrationally. This part of external factors include monetary policy, fiscal policy and other policies, among which monetary policy is particularly important, mainly reflected in the rection of interest rates and reserve requirements
however, this wave of valuations is too fierce. The price earnings ratio of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index of our big a shares is as low as 11.2 times, which is less than half of the 23.7 times PE of the S & P 500 of the United States
why is the valuation so low
the first is the trade war. No one can guarantee whether we can do anything in the United States or what trump will do. If this uncertain risk is not released, the valuation of our A shares will always be discounted
will policy bulls come again
from the perspective of monetary policy, it is already very difficult to raise A-shares by cutting interest rates. The benchmark interest rate of one-year deposits has been as low as 1.5%, and there is little room for further rection
it's hopeful to rece the reserve requirement, but it also means whether the money will flow to the bond market, the property market and other places. It also needs to rely on the guidance of policies, and there is a lot of uncertainty
to return to the essence, it's better to see whether the net profit of a shares is reliable and whether it can rise continuously and rapidly, which is directly related to the trend of the stock market. At present, the net profit growth rate of the Shanghai Composite Index in the mid-18 years is 13.7%. Next, let's look at the annual report. If it can maintain a growth rate of 13-15% every year in the next three years, I believe that the Shanghai Composite Index will return to 4000 points and maintain about 15 times, It's not a problem at all.

6. Think about it after 2022. In 2007, the bull market ended and entered the bear market. The bull market began in 2014, with an interval of seven years

the bull market will end in 2015, and it will be around 2022 every six or seven years.

7.

Although this year's stock market is good, it has not entered a comprehensive bull market. It is just a structural bull market. The real bull market will be postponed until next year

therefore, according to the current situation of the stock market, it is difficult to answer the question whether we can enter the market or not. We should answer and analyze it from three aspects

(1) it's better to never enter the market and enter the pit

the stock market is merciless. It's easy to enter the stock market, but it's difficult to go out of the stock market. So if there are other good investment projects, it's better never enter the market and enter the pit. The pit of the stock market is bottomless, and it's the best way to stay away from the stock market

because most of the investors who enter the market to speculate in stocks are full of losses, nine out of ten speculators are full of losses; If you don't have certain investment ability in the stock market, don't say to make money from the stock market, you are good at losing money

because as long as the comprehensive bull market does not enter the acceleration, the stock prices of many stocks are still very low. It is OK for the medium and long term to enter the market and enter the pit at this stage. Although it is a pit in the short term, it will become a gold pit in the medium and long term, and this pit is valuable

in short, according to the trend of the stock market in 2020, whether we should enter the market or not, we must decide according to our own situation. My advice is not to enter the stock market half step, or short-term investors now do not enter the market pit; Unless you are already speculating in stocks and pursuing time for space, you can really enter the market

therefore, we must take our seats according to our own situation. If the stock market goes well, it will be a golden pit; if it doesn't go well, it will be a big pit, and it is a bottomless pit. Investors are advised to think twice before they leap

8.

Judging from the trend of the A-share market in 2020, the probability of A-share starting a big bull market next is very high. No matter from the perspective of fundamentals, technology or capital flow, it has the potential of accumulation and rising

The fundamentals of China's economy are good

first of all, in 2015, China was ahead of the downward trend of the world economy and took the lead in risk elimination. All instries and the stock market have experienced a round of deleveraging. Although the stock market fell sharply at that time, the risks of the economy and the stock market dropped sharply after deleveraging

coupled with the central bank's policy of tightening capital flow, the leverage ratio of most instries in the country is less than 20% of the peak in 2015, which has enough policy space to further stimulate the economy

secondly, in early 2020, COVID-19 attacked the whole world's economy. China, as the first country to break out, did a good job in the outbreak of the outbreak, not only controlling the spread of the epidemic rapidly, but also recing the impact of the epidemic on the economy. p> Generally speaking, China's stock market will have a market in the next year, but it is still in the adjustment stage. Whether it is suitable to enter the market at this stage depends on the investment objectives of indivial investors. If there are requirements for short-term returns, it is suggested to wait and see for a while; Focusing on the medium and long-term profits, we can now find some stocks in some sectors

if the stock market goes well, it will go into a golden pit. If it doesn't go well, it will really go into a pit. Investors should make proper investment and operate cautiously according to their own financial situation

9. At present, the bull market has gone far. Few people can make accurate prediction. You can pay attention to my daily tickets.

10. The bull market is unpredictable, the domestic capital market is not yet mature, and has been over intervened by the state, so it does not have the conditions for a healthy bull market. In addition, the management and control means are full of loopholes, and the speculators' psychology is serious, so there are two mad bulls
in fact, if you respect the two laws, you can run rampant in the stock market

when the market is consistently bearish, don't panic. This is an opportunity
don't be overjoyed when the market looks long. This is the time to clear the position
don't do short-term trading, unless you have great confidence, or don't trade frequently