Negative effects of virtual currency
recently, the four ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice, requiring local authorities to supervise online game service providers to carry out business activities in accordance with the law, to prevent providing convenient conditions for online gambling activities, and online game service providers shall not charge or use "virtual currency" and other means to collect commissions related to game winning or losing in disguised form; In order to set up games such as using game points to win or lose, guessing and so on, it is necessary to set the number of game points winning or losing per game and per day for users. It is not allowed to provide game points trading, exchange or "virtual currency" or other services to exchange cash or property in disguised form. It is not allowed to provide game points transfer services such as giving or transferring between users
it is reported that Tencent no longer provides the service of game currency or game points in disguised form to exchange cash and property. If netizens want game currency, they can give it as a gift when they buy props. For some paid games, they charge a fixed "game matching fee" to avoid virtual currency gambling in disguised form
mining miners are also very scarce, especially iron ore. if you want to be self-sufficient, mining and selling iron is a good choice, suitable for civilian players
hemp picker is one of the most popular occupations. Whether it's making bandages or cloth, it needs a lot of hemp. At the same time, the medium-term camp upgrading also needs a lot of jute materials
job transfer recommendation after tomorrow
Digital currency is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, the blockchain technology it relies on has been decentralized and can be used in other fields besides digital currency , which is one of the reasons why bitcoin is popular; On the other hand, if digital currency is widely used by the public as a kind of currency, it will have a huge impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy, financial infrastructure, financial market, financial stability and so on. Specific Wu Xiaoxia:
1. Impact on monetary policy
if digital currency is widely accepted and can play the role of currency, it will weaken the effectiveness of monetary policy and bring difficulties to policy-making
because digital currency issuers are usually unregulated third parties, money is created outside the banking system, and the amount of circulation depends entirely on the wishes of the issuers, which will lead to the instability of money supply. In addition, the authorities are unable to monitor the issuance and circulation of digital currency, which will lead to the inability to accurately judge the economic operation and bring trouble to policy-making, At the same time, it will weaken the effectiveness of policy transmission and implementation
2. Impact on financial infrastructure. The use of distributed ledgers also poses challenges to trading, clearing and settlement, as it promotes the disintermediation of traditional service providers in different markets and infrastructures. These changes may have potential impacts on market infrastructure other than retail payment systems, such as large payment systems, securities settlement systems or trading databases
3. The impact on financial intermediation and financial market in a broad sense. As a financial intermediary, banks perform the ties of acting supervisors and supervise borrowers on behalf of depositors
generally, banks also carry out liquidity and maturity conversion business to realize the financing from depositors to borrowers. If digital currency and distributed ledger are widely used, any subsequent disintermediation may have an impact on savings or credit evaluation mechanisms
4. The impact of security risks and financial stability
assuming that digital currency is recognized by the public, its use increases significantly and replaces legal currency to a certain extent, negative events such as network attacks on user terminals related to digital currency will lead to currency fluctuations, which will have an impact on the financial order and the real economy
in addition, the virtual currency based on blockchain technology is usually held by a few people at the beginning. For example, the first purchase of bitcoin in May 2010 was $25 pizza purchased by 10000 BTC, and the price of each bitcoin rose to $1200 in more than three years by the end of 2013
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extended materials
Amazon will launch digital currency project in Mexico. Amazon is recruiting software development managers for digital and emerging payments (DEP) to develop new payment procts that will enable customers to convert cash into digital currency
the digital and emerging payments sector intends to launch the proct in Mexico first. The follow-up will be extended to Brazil and India. It is reported that the digital currency project will completely focus on payment services in emerging markets
from: financial circles
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -. The competitiveness of procts of export-oriented enterprises will be weakened, especially the export of primary procts. The domestic competitiveness of imported procts will be significantly improved. For example, the export price of 8000 yuan worth of procts may be 1000 US dollars, while after the appreciation of RMB, the export price of the same procts will be 1111 US dollars, up 11%. The original low-cost advantage will be lost, and the instries relying solely on the price advantage will be greatly impacted. The competitive advantage of imported procts will be improved. Take the relatively popular car as an example, the domestic price of the imported car with the original price of 100000 US dollars will be reced from 800000 yuan to 720000 yuan (without considering the influence of taxes and fees), and the price comparison effect is very obvious. Similarly, for enterprises that rely heavily on imported raw materials, cost rection will directly increase their profitability. In addition, the hottest topic at present is the soaring price of crude oil. In 2003, China imported 90 million tons of crude oil, which is estimated to exceed 100 million tons this year. An appreciation of 10% (based on the average price of 40 US dollars / barrel) will save nearly 24 billion yuan
as the ability to attract foreign investment weakens, more domestic enterprises will go abroad to invest and build factories abroad. Although the appreciation of RMB will increase the profitability of foreign-funded enterprises in China (in US dollars), the corresponding new investment costs will rise. The original foreign-funded enterprises will continue to stay and the new capital will be transferred back to other countries for investment; However, the cost of domestic enterprises to invest abroad will be reced, which will promote a large number of enterprises to go out, especially the home appliance instry suffering from anti-mping. It is a very good choice to go to the United States to build a market
the pressure on debt service will be relieved, and the profitability of a number of projects relying on foreign loans will be improved. Taking several listed companies as examples, it is found from the 2003 annual report that the exchange losses of Zhangze electric power, Shanghai electric power and Liaotong chemical are more than 50 million yuan, especially the Japanese yen exchange loss of Zhangze electric power is more than 180 million yuan. The exchange losses withdrawn in previous years will have the opportunity to be written back into profits step by step
the international status of China's GDP will be improved. In 2003, China's GDP was US $1.4 trillion, ranking seventh in the world. If RMB appreciation is combined with the growth of more than 9% this year, China is expected to surpass Italy and France and rise to the fifth place in 2004
in addition, it is good for training and studying abroad, increasing the national tax revenue and improving the people's real purchasing power; The disadvantages are that it may increase market speculation, rece exports may increase domestic employment pressure, may lead to deflation, may appear "sudden wealth effect", may aggravate the expenditure burden of low-income groups, etc. Comprehensive analysis shows that RMB appreciation has both advantages and disadvantages. At present, the advantages outweigh the disadvantages<
positive impact:
concive to China's import
cost rection of raw materials import dependent manufacturers
enhanced foreign investment capacity of domestic enterprises
increased profits of foreign-invested enterprises in China
concive to talents' study and training abroad
reced pressure on foreign debt repayment
more cost-effective asset sales in China
improved international status of China's GDP
Increase the national tax revenue
increase the international purchasing power of Chinese people
negative impact:
the appreciation of RMB will bring greater pressure on China's deflation
the appreciation of RMB exchange rate will lead to a decline in the attractiveness of foreign investment, Recing foreign direct investment in China will cause certain harm to China's foreign trade exports
the appreciation of RMB exchange rate will rece the profit margin of Chinese enterprises and increase the employment pressure
the fiscal deficit will increase e to the appreciation of RMB exchange rate and affect the stability of monetary policy
at the same time http://www.51windows.net/data/?url=/data/files/file_ 633.asp
The main harm of currency appreciation:
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the impact of domestic currency appreciation on people's labor and leisure. Currency appreciation, a trade term, means that people's labor procts and labor must be sold at a lower price. When the currency appreciation, people's labor and labor procts will be devalued correspondingly. People can only get a small amount of money, which will make many people choose leisure and give up labor. The further impact of abandoning labor is: economic downturn, lower income, and then lower consumption, and thus foreign imports will shrink - the appreciation of the domestic currency makes the economy depressed, directly dragging down the world economy
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in the process of international export, the domestic economic depression caused by currency appreciation directly weakens a country's export competitiveness, thus affecting the optimization of resource allocation worldwide and dragging down the world economy
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in the process of international currency import, although currency appreciation will attract some hot money to flow in, the main purpose of hot money is to earn the price difference, which will eventually flow out of foreign countries and drive more money out of foreign countries, thus making a country's currency more scarce; Looking at the reaction of foreign long-term capital to currency appreciation, currency appreciation forces most procts to be sold cheaply, which directly leads to enterprise bankruptcy, proction stop, workers shutdown, consumption index rection, and the deterioration of investment environment will eventually force long-term investment to shift positions
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in the process of international goods import, currency appreciation makes the trading counterpart obtain less currency, which will make the trading counterpart choose to rece the trading volume or cancel the transaction and find another buyer, thus recing social employment opportunities, national wealth and the total amount of foreign trade, causing economic recession and causing harm to the development of indivials, countries and the world
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the appreciation of RMB will benefit the instries that mainly rely on foreign procurement of raw materials or equipment, or have high liquidity of RMB assets in the long run; For instries with large foreign debts in US dollars, one-time exchange earnings will be generated; The impact on the export-oriented instries and international pricing instries is greater< br />
firstly, currency devaluation will increase the domestic price of trade goods, and through the substitution of trade goods and non trade goods, the price of non trade goods will also increase. The increase of price level will mean the decrease of real currency balance, which will lead to the increase of demand for nominal currency balance, Under the condition of constant money supply, people will inevitably meet the increasing demand for nominal money by selling goods and financial assets, so as to improve the balance of payments. However, the effect of currency devaluation on improving the balance of payments will only occur on the basis of money supply rection or keeping unchanged. Otherwise, the increase of money supply will offset the increase of nominal money demand caused by currency devaluation, and the balance of payments will not be improved or even worsen
in order to improve the balance of payments, the devaluation of currency must have the existence of idle resources. Only when there are idle resources, the idle resources flow into the export after devaluation, and the export can expand. Secondly, export expansion leads to the growth of national income, depreciation can ultimately improve the balance of payments, and the marginal absorption tendency should be less than 100%, when the depreciation increases the national income will be greater than the total absorption, the balance of payments can be improved. Absorption analysis method also puts forward its own policy matching scheme to solve the problem of balance of payments imbalance, such as the existence of idle resources, the use of monetary devaluation policy and expansionary fiscal and monetary policy matching, if there is no idle resources, the use of monetary devaluation policy and tightening fiscal and monetary policy matching, the use of monetary devaluation to improve the balance of payments
the principle of absorption analysis tells us that the existence of idle resources is an important condition for currency devaluation to improve the balance of payments. However, by analyzing the actual situation of countries with devalued exchange rates, especially Southeast Asian countries, the bottleneck effect of capital shortage is an important reason for the failure of the balance of payments effect of currency devaluation. Although the decline of exchange rate in the financial crisis led to the decline of proction and the formation of workers' unemployment, at the same time with the decline of exchange rate, there was a large amount of capital outflow. The idle labor resources coexisted with the shortage of capital. The shortage of capital restricted the utilization of idle resources and could not form new proction capacity to increase national income, However, it is difficult to rece the total absorption formed by consumption and investment, and to ensure that the marginal absorption tendency is less than 100%. Therefore, despite the devaluation of currency, the balance of payments cannot be improved
suppose that there are only two supply countries a and B in the international market of a certain commodity, that is, the exporting country is the export competition relationship, and other countries are both the demand countries, that is, the importing countries, and a and B each account for 50% of the market share. First of all, there is a deficit in the balance of payments of country A. in order to improve the deficit situation, the currency devaluation policy is adopted, and the currency devaluation of country a is effective. Increased exports, and the expanded share is exactly what country B lost. Country B is not willing to rece its share. The following model should be able to vividly illustrate the ineffectiveness of the devaluation policy
first of all, from a single country's point of view, each round of currency devaluation of a and B is effective. In the first round of devaluation, the currency devaluation of a is 10%, the market share of a is increased from 50% to 75%, the elasticity of export demand is 2.5 (2.5 = 25% / 10%), and the devaluation of B is also effective. After 10% devaluation, the market share of B is restored from the remaining 25% to 50%, and the elasticity is also 2.5, The second round of devaluation is also flexible and effective, so it can be repeated
secondly, generally speaking, devaluation is ineffective, because after two or more rounds of devaluation, the market share returns to the initial state, which is still 50% to 50%. The further conclusion is that this devaluation has no effect on improving a country's balance of payments. In fact, it will worsen a country's balance of payments, and worsen the balance of payments of all participating countries through linkage effect. After two rounds of devaluation, the exchange rates of the two currencies depreciated by 19% compared with the initial period (19% = 100% - 90% X90%), while the market share remained unchanged, that is, the export volume remained unchanged, which means that the export income of the two countries decreased by 19%. This phenomenon that devaluation is effective from a single point of view, but ineffective from a general point of view, borrows Keynes's "trap", This paper calls it "devaluation trap"
great changes have taken place in the current situation, with the deepening development of economic financialization and globalization. There are huge international capital flows, including long-term capital flow and short-term capital flow. Long term capital flow is not very sensitive to the change of exchange rate, while short-term capital is very sensitive to the change of exchange rate. A little devaluation of the local currency may form a huge amount of short-term capital outflow, resulting in a strong impact on the balance of payments. The average daily trading volume of the global foreign exchange market is more than US $1.5 trillion, most of which are capital flows without trade and investment background, especially arbitrage and arbitrage capital flows
the impact of short-term capital, that is, international hot money, is reflected in the following aspects: first, it is disorderly. Unless the government adopts mandatory control measures, it is difficult to predict and manage the inflow and outflow of short-term capital. Second, it is highly sensitive to changes in the exchange rate. If the exchange rate or interest rate of a country's currency rises or is expected to rise, a large number of hot money will flow in. Once the exchange rate or interest rate of a country's currency falls, a large number of hot money will flow out, This, in turn, leads to inflation, which is the last result that devalued countries want to see. Third, there is no time lag. The impact of exchange rate devaluation on international short-term capital flow has no time lag, and it is rapid and intense. Perhaps when a country's currency devaluation policy has not been implemented but only devaluation expectation exists, the outflow of international hot money has begun. Once the currency devalues, the outflow of hot money can not be controlled. Even if currency devaluation has a positive impact on trade balance, it also has a time lag process, while the negative impact on short-term capital flow has no time lag or even ahead of time. In the early stage of devaluation, the deterioration of balance of payments is inevitable. Taking a comprehensive view of the countries that have fallen into the financial crisis since the late 1990s, most of them have no or little restrictions on the inflow of international short-term capital before the crisis, relying on the surplus of short-term capital to support the balance of payments, resulting in a huge capital deficit when devaluation, forming an uncontrollable situation.
the domestic blockchain is not formal at all. If you can still make money now, you'd better come out first to rece the loss.