Virtual currency Xu Ming
after the appreciation of RMB, it has a greater impact on exports, because the exchange rate of one dollar to RMB is reced, compared with other currencies, the price of procts is higher than before, and the export cost is increased, which is a negative factor for the corresponding export trade.
1. Credit trading is also called margin trading, the biggest purpose is to make the use of funds more efficient. Through margin trading, leverage the use of funds. For example, the warrant derivatives, you pay 100000 yuan in the securities company's account, assuming that the leverage is 10, then you can use the 100000 yuan as one million yuan. Suppose you use the 1 million yuan to sell shares, and the shares rise to 1.1 million yuan, then you sell them again, and then you will make a pure profit of 100000 yuan and a profit of 100%; If the one million you buy falls to 900000, you lose 100000, 100%. That is to say, credit transaction not only improves the efficiency of capital utilization, but also expands the risk. These are the advantages and disadvantages
2. There are too many financial derivatives, and the types of markets in different countries are also very different. However, there is only one essence, which is to improve the utilization rate of funds and, of course, expand the risk. Financial derivatives can not be divided into investment and speculation. Of course, they can provide great convenience for the financing or consumption of the real economy. This is called investment, but the good and bad can not be predicted before. As for risk hedging, that is to say, buying a bullish proct and a bearish proct at the same time offset part of the risk to a certain extent< 3. Consumer credit is overdraft. To put it bluntly, it is to lend money to consumers for consumption. This, of course, can boost consumption. So as to stimulate investment. Promote economic development. However, if consumers borrow money and can't pay it back, they will form uncollectible bad debts to financial institutions. Even went bankrupt
4. We should understand the financial crisis from the following aspects. Fundamentally speaking, the financial crisis is that Americans have too much debt, which is bound to happen. The gross domestic proct of the United States is about US $1.3 billion. The average debt of each family is US $175000, and the total debt of the United States is nearly US $100000<
the financial crisis started from the subprime mortgage crisis. In the subprime mortgage crisis, some people in the United States could not afford to repay their housing loans, so they could not get back the funds lent by most financial institutions, and the crisis loomed. American commercial banks sell these subordinated bonds to investment banks, and the investment banks package these subordinated bonds and list them again, just like issuing bonds, and insure these bonds with AIG. In the whole process, the financial leverage has been extended by about 30 times. In this way, many financial institutions on the financial chain will go bankrupt when the lenders can't afford the mortgage. Of course, AIG and Fannie and Freddie fell first
as I said just now, the financial chain has been stretched for a long time, and some accounting losses have not yet been revealed. It is estimated that the total bad debts will reach at least US $60 trillion (only credit default swap cds, a financial derivative, is actually a default insurance proct). So, the current financial crisis is just beginning to emerge
hope to adopt
Insurance editor to help you answer, more questions can be answered online
causes of 2008 financial crisis
[Abstract] under the background of economic globalization, international economic imbalance will lead to the reallocation of international capital on a global scale. In a sense, the international economic imbalance and the defects of the international monetary system are the preconditions for the outbreak of the financial crisis, while the attack of the international hot money is the precondition for the outbreak of the financial crisis. From the current international situation and China's domestic situation, the prerequisite for the financial crisis has been met, so to prevent the attack of international hot money is the primary goal of formulating the current macroeconomic policy of our country
[Key words] financial crisis, international economy, international monetary system, international hot money
whether the financial crisis is caused by external factors or internal factors, there have always been two opposing views in the academic circles: conspiracy theory and law theory. Conspiracy theory holds that the financial crisis is caused by premeditated and planned attacks on the economy, and is caused by external factors, especially after the financial crisis in Southeast Asia. According to the law theory, the financial crisis is the law of the economy itself, which is caused by internal factors. The theory of three generations of financial crisis is basically the theory of law of recognition. With the improvement of financial supervision technology, the possibility of a country's financial crisis caused by regulatory or regulatory problems becomes smaller; With the increasing trend of economic globalization, the modern financial crisis basically shows that under the condition of international economic imbalance, international capital, driven by interests, uses the distorted national monetary system to lead to the outbreak of regional financial crisis. Therefore, in essence, the nature and causes of the financial crisis have changed. Based on the existing research, this paper analyzes the causes of the financial crisis from the perspective of international economy< First, international economic imbalances
Huang Xiaolong (2007) [1] believes that international balance of payments imbalances lead to the imbalance of the international monetary system, and virtual economy leads to excess liquidity, which in turn leads to global economic imbalances and financial crisis. Huang Xiaolong studied the financial crisis from external factors. However, fundamentally speaking, the root of global economic imbalance should be the imbalance of the real economy. The imbalance of international payments is just the appearance of the imbalance of the real economy. The imbalance of the real economy leads to the international flow of monetary capital, and the flow of international capital leads to the expansion and depression of the virtual economy, which leads to the shortage of liquidity, It can eventually lead to a financial crisis. Therefore, the imbalance of the global real economy is the necessary condition for the financial crisis, while the liquidity shortage caused by the virtual economy is the sufficient condition for the financial crisis
throughout the history of financial crisis, financial crisis is always accompanied by regional or global economic imbalances. Before the outbreak of the financial crisis in 1929, great changes had taken place in the international economic structure. Britain's world hegemony graally tilted to the United States and Europe. In particular, the rapid economic growth of the United States showed a trend to replace Britain's hegemony. This international economic imbalance laid a curse for the subsequent financial crisis. At the end of the 20th century, the trend of regional economic integration is faster than the trend of economic globalization. The economic relevance between Latin American countries and the United States makes the "Butterfly Effect" of Latin American countries on American economy stronger than other countries. In the last 20 years of the 20th century, when the economic structure of Latin America was unbalanced, it was often manifested as the financial crisis of Latin American countries. The imbalance of economic structure in Europe, the United States and Japan is also the source of financial crisis in Europe, the United States and Japan. When the stable regional or global economic structure is broken, the new economic balance is often driven by the financial crisis. The European financial crisis in 1992 originated from the rapid development of German economy after the reunification of Germany, which broke the economic balance between Germany and the United States and between Germany and other European countries. In 1990, Japan achieved a new economic balance because of the financial crisis after the economic balance between the United States and Japan was broken
regional or global economic imbalance will lead to the reallocation of international capital in a certain range. In the context of regional economic integration and economic globalization, the influence of a country's macro policy may be regional or global. In the short run, the international economy is relatively balanced at a certain point, and the total amount of global capital and demand is certain. When a country's economy changes, it will cause corresponding changes in international capital and demand in different countries. If it is a small country's economy, its impact is only regional. If it is a big country, its impact is global. When the economy of a big country becomes stronger, it will attract international capital into the country, resulting in the capital outflow of other countries. When the capital outflow reaches a certain extent, there will be a shortage of liquidity, and the financial crisis will change from possibility to necessity. The signal of this change is the high interest rate policy of big countries, or the strong monetary policy of big countries. For the small country economy, when the economy becomes stronger, it will attract the inflow of international capital. When the amount of international capital flows into the country, the real economy of the country will absorb the saturation of international capital, and the international capital will merge with the virtual economy of the country to promote the bubble of the economy. When the virtual economy and the real economy deviate seriously, international capital will soon withdraw. As a result, the financial crisis broke out
from the formation path of the financial crisis caused by the international economic imbalance, we can see that the international economic imbalance is manifested through the balance of payments, and the adjustment of the balance of payments imbalance is carried out through the international monetary system. If there is a perfect and effective international monetary system, then the mandatory and destructive adjustment of the international economy can be completely avoided, that is, the occurrence of the financial crisis can be avoided, However, the real international monetary system is manipulated by big powers, so the international economic imbalance will be further distorted and enlarged< Second, the distortion of the international monetary system. Xu Mingqi (1999) [2] holds that, on the one hand, the international monetary system is characterized by weakening order and hovering between reform and maintaining the status quo; On the other hand, developing countries are in a weak position in international trade, investment and debt; The developing countries under the double constraints have to swallow the bitter fruit of the financial crisis again and again, so the inherent defects of the existing international monetary system can not escape its blame. That is to say, the international monetary system follows the basic principles and concepts of the Bretton Woods system in mediating the imbalance of international payments, while countries lose the original order and discipline in formulating monetary policies to coordinate international economic imbalances. Therefore, the current international economic imbalances are magnified and intensified by the current international monetary system
after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the existing international monetary system is a loose international monetary system. Although the role of euro and yen in the international monetary system is graally increasing, the diversification of reserve currency can not effectively solve the "Triffin problem", but only decentralize the contradiction, that is to say, the identity of reserve currency is not only a national currency but also an international currency. It is bound to be in contradiction with the requirements of the world economy or regional economy for the reserve currency countries to formulate macroeconomic policies according to the domestic macroeconomic conditions, which will lead to the instability of the foreign exchange market and the turbulence of the financial market. A country that is linked to or pegged to a certain reserve currency is not only affected by the monetary policy of the reserve currency country, but also by the cross effect of monetary policies among many countries. The changes of exchange rate and interest rate between reserve currencies have a greater impact on developing countries, making the foreign exchange market more unstable and turbulent. This impact can be divided into regional and global. In view of the special status of the US dollar, the impact of US economic policy changes may be regional or global
take the US dollar as an example, the adjustment of US dollar value is realized through the adjustment of US dollar interest rate. When setting the US dollar interest rate, the Federal Reserve can not take into account the macroeconomic conditions of countries (regions) pegged to us dollar or using US dollar as reserve. Therefore, when the US dollar interest rate is adjusted, it will often have an impact on other economies, especially those countries and regions that have close economic ties with the US or whose currencies are linked to us dollar [3]. First of all, the imperfect international monetary system with the US dollar as the pillar, no matter adopting the floating exchange rate policy or the fixed exchange rate policy, the US economy affects all the countries closely related to its economy and the change of their currency value. If the floating exchange rate policy can comply with the discipline of monetary policy making under the monetary system, then there will not be unstable speculative attacks on the world financial market, and there will not be the resulting currency market turbulence or even financial crisis. Due to the contradiction between the autonomy of monetary policy making and the relevance of economic globalization, the current monetary system can not guarantee the discipline of the US dollar under the premise of floating exchange rate. Therefore, a country's macro policy will lead to the currency market turbulence of economically related countries, and the financial crisis will break out under the catalysis of speculative capital. As far as the current situation is concerned, although the Bretton Woods system has collapsed, compared with the emerging market countries and developing countries, the appreciation or depreciation of the US dollar will still cause strong economic fluctuations in these countries. When the U.S. economy is prosperous, the appreciation of the U.S. dollar will lead to the outflow of capital; When the U.S. economy is depressed, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar will lead to inflation in these countries
from the above analysis, we can see that the current international monetary system retains the ideas and principles of the original international monetary system, but it has lost the original order and discipline. Strong economies can use this system to pass on the financial crisis and obtain more profits, without having to bear too much responsibility< Third, the attack of international hot money
international economic imbalance is the precondition of the financial crisis. The imperfect international monetary system will aggravate the international economic imbalance, but the initiator of the financial crisis is international hot money. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the financial crisis cannot be separated from the attack of international hot money. In the 1992 European financial crisis, Soros obtained a 1:20 loan by way of margin. In a short period of one month, he sold short the pound equivalent to 7 billion US dollars and bought the mark equivalent to 6 billion US dollars, forcing the pound to depreciate sharply and making a net profit of 1.5 billion US dollars after repaying the loan [4]. Before the financial crisis in Mexico in 1994, a large number of international hot money continued to enter the Mexican securities market. Among the foreign capital absorbed by Mexico, securities investment accounted for 70% - 80%. However, in more than 40 days after the assassination of the Mexican presidential candidate, foreign capital withdrew US $10 billion, which directly led to the outbreak of the Mexican financial crisis [5]. The Southeast Asian financial crisis in 1997 was also the first time for international hot money to attack the Thai baht, buy low and sell high, and skillfully use financial derivatives to obtain high returns
according to the IMF's statistics on international hot money, the international short-term capital in the early 1980s was US $3 trillion, which increased to US $7.2 trillion by the end of 1997, equivalent to 20% of the world's GDP in that year. At the end of 2006, the total assets managed by global hedge funds alone reached US $1.43 trillion, an increase of about six times over the end of 1996. The investment strategies of hedge funds are also constantly enriched, from the initial "short selling + leverage" strategy (market neutral Fund), to single strategy (including arbitrage, direction, event driven, etc.), Multi Strategy (including emerging markets, mergers and acquisitions, etc.), fund of funds and other investment strategies. Its risk characteristics are also diversified, including macro hedge funds with high risk and high return, and markets with low risk but relatively stable return
2. From the subprime mortgage crisis to the financial crisis, here is an original case: two people sell Shaobing, each selling 20 pieces a day (because the whole demand for Shaobing is only 40 pieces), one for one yuan, and the daily output value is 40 yuan, In clay oven rolls clay oven rolls clay oven rolls, clay oven rolls are sold in the form of bookkeeping. The price is constant. The volume of trading is 240 yuan per day. The virtual economy has proced
if the price of the baking cake is 5 yuan, the daily volume of the business is 1040 yuan. At this point, A and B will increase the market baking cake to 2 yuan. Some people have heard that the clay oven rolls are selling at 1 yuan for 5 yuan, and when the market is only 2 yuan, buy it quickly. - the bubble economy proces
baked cake can not be proced at once. On the one hand, a and B increase the number of pancakes (up to 100 or more per day), on the other hand, they sell pancakes, and they also start the transaction of issuing pancake bonds. The buyers buy pancakes with cash and mortgage loans. --- financing, financial intervention
some people want to buy pancakes, but they have neither cash nor collateral, A and B issued sub-prime pancake bonds and bought insurance from insurance institutions. --- sub prime bonds sowed seeds for the sub-prime crisis.
one day, they found that the pancakes they bought could not be eaten, and they had to store them in a place where they could not get moldy, so they quickly sold them, The clay oven rolls off the
even if the price is lower. The financial crisis has broken out. The burn cake shop has laid off (as long as 40 clay oven rolls are ready every day) - unemployment. Shaobing bonds have become waste paper: the subprime mortgage crisis
the mortgage loan (the collateral is worthless) can not be recovered, the liquidity crisis of loan banks, the bankruptcy of insurance companies, etc-- Financial crisis
3. The financial crisis has spread to the whole world. For China, part of the country's foreign exchange reserves have been lost, exports have become difficult, economic growth has slowed down, unemployment has increased, people's income has declined, consumption has decreased, and the market is depressed. In serious cases, it will cause political instability, Compared with European countries (such as Detroit Motor City in the United States), the impact of the financial crisis on China is not great, because China's economy is separated from the international economy to a certain extent, China's RMB implements strict management under the capital account, and the impact of international hot money is not big. Now more than 70 banks in the United States tend to close down, China's financial system is running well and its economy has maintained a certain speed of growth. At the same time, the country is also expanding the fiscal and recing the deposit reserve ratio, 400 billion to stimulate domestic demand and other measures, and now the RMB exchange rate has been lowered. If the implementation of various macroeconomic measures is effective, about one year will pass for China.
4, The main measures are as follows:
(1) loose fiscal policy: recing taxes (the rection of securities transaction tax and the cancellation of interest tax have been implemented), expanding government spending (400 billion yuan to stimulate domestic demand is being implemented)
(2) loose monetary policy: the decrease of deposit reserve ratio and benchmark interest rate of loan is to increase the money supply in the market and expand investment and consumption. On October 27, 2008, the first housing loan interest rate was reced by 70%
(3) promoting foreign trade: the import and export instry is the first to be affected, and there are many employees (according to statistics, it has reached 100 million people). First, increase export tax rebate; Second, the appreciation of RMB is a means to increase export competitiveness< (4) recing the burden of enterprises: the adjustment of labor law, etc
(5) strengthen the expenditure of Public Finance on social security / medical care to maintain the stability of social and economic development environment< (6) foreign economic cooperation and coordination. And so on.
[Abstract] under the background of economic globalization, international economic imbalance will lead to the reallocation of international capital on a global scale. In a sense, the international economic imbalance and the defects of the international monetary system are the preconditions for the outbreak of the financial crisis, while the attack of the international hot money is the precondition for the outbreak of the financial crisis. From the current international situation and China's domestic situation, the prerequisite for the financial crisis has been met, so to prevent the attack of international hot money is the primary goal of formulating the current macroeconomic policy of our country<
[Key words] financial crisis, international economy, international monetary system, international hot money
whether the financial crisis is caused by external factors or internal factors, there have always been two opposite views in the academic circles: conspiracy theory and law theory. Conspiracy theory holds that the financial crisis is caused by premeditated and planned attacks on the economy, and is caused by external factors, especially after the financial crisis in Southeast Asia. According to the law theory, the financial crisis is the law of the economy itself, which is caused by internal factors. The theory of three generations of financial crisis is basically the theory of law of recognition. With the improvement of financial supervision technology, the possibility of a country's financial crisis caused by regulatory or regulatory problems becomes smaller; With the increasing trend of economic globalization, the modern financial crisis basically shows that under the condition of international economic imbalance, international capital, driven by interests, uses the distorted national monetary system to lead to the outbreak of regional financial crisis. Therefore, in essence, the nature and causes of the financial crisis have changed. Based on the existing research, this paper analyzes the causes of the financial crisis from the perspective of international economy< First, international economic imbalance
Huang Xiaolong (2007) [1] believes that international balance of payments imbalance leads to the imbalance of the international monetary system, and virtual economy leads to excess liquidity, which in turn leads to global economic imbalance and financial crisis. Huang Xiaolong studied the financial crisis from external factors. However, fundamentally speaking, the root of global economic imbalance should be the imbalance of the real economy. The imbalance of international payments is just the appearance of the imbalance of the real economy. The imbalance of the real economy leads to the international flow of monetary capital, and the flow of international capital leads to the expansion and depression of the virtual economy, which leads to the shortage of liquidity, It can eventually lead to a financial crisis. Therefore, the imbalance of the global real economy is the necessary condition for the financial crisis, while the liquidity shortage caused by the virtual economy is the sufficient condition for the financial crisis
throughout the history of financial crisis, financial crisis is always accompanied by regional or global economic imbalances. Before the outbreak of the financial crisis in 1929, great changes had taken place in the international economic structure. Britain's world hegemony graally tilted to the United States and Europe. In particular, the rapid economic growth of the United States showed a trend to replace Britain's hegemony. This international economic imbalance laid a curse for the subsequent financial crisis. At the end of the 20th century, the trend of regional economic integration is faster than the trend of economic globalization. The economic relevance between Latin American countries and the United States makes the "Butterfly Effect" of Latin American countries on American economy stronger than other countries. In the last 20 years of the 20th century, when the economic structure of Latin America was unbalanced, it was often manifested as the financial crisis of Latin American countries. The imbalance of economic structure in Europe, the United States and Japan is also the source of financial crisis in Europe, the United States and Japan. When the stable regional or global economic structure is broken, the new economic balance is often driven by the financial crisis. The European financial crisis in 1992 originated from the rapid development of German economy after the reunification of Germany, which broke the economic balance between Germany and the United States and between Germany and other European countries. In 1990, Japan achieved a new economic balance because of the financial crisis after the economic balance between the United States and Japan was broken
regional or global economic imbalance will lead to the reallocation of international capital in a certain range. In the context of regional economic integration and economic globalization, the influence of a country's macro policy may be regional or global. In the short run, the international economy is relatively balanced at a certain point, and the total amount of global capital and demand is certain. When a country's economy changes, it will cause corresponding changes in international capital and demand in different countries. If it is a small country's economy, its impact is only regional. If it is a big country, its impact is global. When the economy of a big country becomes stronger, it will attract international capital into the country, resulting in the capital outflow of other countries. When the capital outflow reaches a certain extent, there will be a shortage of liquidity, and the financial crisis will change from possibility to necessity. The signal of this change is the high interest rate policy of big countries, or the strong monetary policy of big countries. For the small country economy, when the economy becomes stronger, it will attract the inflow of international capital. When the amount of international capital flows into the country, the real economy of the country will absorb the saturation of international capital, and the international capital will merge with the virtual economy of the country to promote the bubble of the economy. When the virtual economy and the real economy deviate seriously, international capital will soon withdraw. As a result, the financial crisis broke out
from the formation path of the financial crisis caused by the international economic imbalance, we can see that the international economic imbalance is manifested through the balance of payments, and the adjustment of the balance of payments imbalance is carried out through the international monetary system. If there is a perfect and effective international monetary system, then the mandatory and destructive adjustment of the international economy can be completely avoided, that is, the occurrence of the financial crisis can be avoided, However, the real international monetary system is manipulated by big powers, so the international economic imbalance will be further distorted and enlarged< Second, the distortion of the international monetary system. Xu Mingqi (1999) [2] holds that, on the one hand, the international monetary system is characterized by weakening order and hovering between reform and maintaining the status quo; On the other hand, developing countries are in a weak position in international trade, investment and debt; The developing countries under the double constraints have to swallow the bitter fruit of the financial crisis again and again, so the inherent defects of the existing international monetary system can not escape its blame. That is to say, the international monetary system follows the basic principles and concepts of the Bretton Woods system in mediating the imbalance of international payments, while countries lose the original order and discipline in formulating monetary policies to coordinate international economic imbalances. Therefore, the current international economic imbalances are magnified and intensified by the current international monetary system
after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the existing international monetary system is a loose international monetary system. Although the role of euro and yen in the international monetary system is graally increasing, the diversification of reserve currency can not effectively solve the "Triffin problem", but only decentralize the contradiction, that is to say, the identity of reserve currency is not only a national currency but also an international currency. It is bound to be in contradiction with the requirements of the world economy or regional economy for the reserve currency countries to formulate macroeconomic policies according to the domestic macroeconomic conditions, which will lead to the instability of the foreign exchange market and the turbulence of the financial market. A country that is linked to or pegged to a certain reserve currency is not only affected by the monetary policy of the reserve currency country, but also by the cross effect of monetary policies among many countries. The changes of exchange rate and interest rate between reserve currencies have a greater impact on developing countries, making the foreign exchange market more unstable and turbulent. This impact can be divided into regional and global. In view of the special status of the US dollar, the impact of US economic policy changes may be regional or global
take the US dollar as an example, the adjustment of US dollar value is realized through the adjustment of US dollar interest rate. When setting US dollar interest rates, the Federal Reserve can not take into account the macroeconomic conditions of countries (regions) pegged to us dollar or using US dollar as reserves. Therefore, when US dollar interest rates are adjusted, it will often have an impact on other economies, especially those countries and regions that have close economic ties with the United States or whose currencies are pegged to us dollar [3]. First of all, the imperfect international monetary system with the US dollar as the pillar, no matter adopting the floating exchange rate policy or the fixed exchange rate policy, the US economy affects all the countries closely related to its economy and the change of their currency value. If the floating exchange rate policy can comply with the discipline of monetary policy making under the monetary system, then there will not be unstable speculative attacks on the world financial market, and there will not be the resulting currency market turbulence or even financial crisis. Due to the contradiction between the autonomy of monetary policy making and the relevance of economic globalization, the current monetary system can not guarantee the discipline of the US dollar under the premise of floating exchange rate. Therefore, a country's macro policy will lead to the currency market turbulence of economically related countries, and the financial crisis will break out under the catalysis of speculative capital. As far as the current situation is concerned, although the Bretton Woods system has collapsed, compared with the emerging market countries and developing countries, the appreciation or depreciation of the US dollar will still cause strong economic fluctuations in these countries. When the U.S. economy is prosperous, the appreciation of the U.S. dollar will lead to the outflow of capital; When the U.S. economy is depressed, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar will lead to inflation in these countries
from the above analysis, we can see that the current international monetary system retains the ideas and principles of the original international monetary system, but it has lost the original order and discipline. Strong economies can use this system to pass on the financial crisis and obtain more profits, without having to bear too much responsibility< Third, the attack of international hot money
international economic imbalance is the precondition of the financial crisis. The imperfect international monetary system will aggravate the international economic imbalance, but the initiator of the financial crisis is international hot money. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the financial crisis cannot be separated from the attack of international hot money. During the 1992 European financial crisis, Soros obtained a 1:20 loan by way of margin. In a short period of one month, he sold short the equivalent of 7 billion US dollars in pounds and bought the equivalent of 6 billion US dollars in marks, forcing the pound to depreciate sharply and making a net profit of 1.5 billion US dollars after repaying the loan. Before the financial crisis in Mexico in 1994, a large number of international hot money continued to enter the Mexican securities market. Among the foreign capital absorbed by Mexico, securities investment accounted for 70% ～ 80%. However, in more than 40 days after the assassination of the Mexican presidential candidate, foreign capital withdrew US $10 billion, which directly led to the outbreak of the Mexican financial crisis [5]. The Southeast Asian financial crisis in 1997 was also the first time for international hot money to attack the Thai baht, buy low and sell high, and skillfully use financial derivatives to obtain high returns
according to the IMF's statistics on international hot money, the international short-term capital in the early 1980s was US $3 trillion, which increased to US $7.2 trillion by the end of 1997, equivalent to 20% of the world's GDP that year. At the end of 2006, the total assets managed by global hedge funds alone reached US $1.43 trillion, an increase of about six times over the end of 1996. The investment strategies of hedge funds are also constantly enriched, from the initial "short selling + leverage" strategy (market neutral Fund), to single strategy (including arbitrage, direction, event driven, etc.), Multi Strategy (including emerging markets, mergers and acquisitions, etc.), fund of funds and other investment strategies. Its risk characteristics also show a trend of diversification, including high-risk, high-yield macro hedge funds and low-risk but relatively high-yield macro hedge funds
the emergence of the U.S. financial crisis has its inevitable reasons. In essence, it is the development mode of low savings and high consumption in the United States. In terms of system and mechanism, there are six major defects in the lack of financial supervision< (1) subprime real estate mortgage loan
according to international practice, the mortgage loan for house purchase is a down payment of 20% - 30%, and then the principal and interest are paid monthly. However, in order to stimulate real estate consumption, the United States has implemented "zero down payment" for house purchase in the past 10 years, with no repayment of principal and interest within half a year and no repayment of principal within five years, and even allowed house buyers to mortgage the value-added part of house price to the bank again. The most romantic mortgage loan system in the world has enabled Americans to spend more than they can afford, and the poor to live in big houses. It has created a brilliant decade for the American economy. But behind this brilliant trend, there is a huge hidden danger of real estate bubbles and related bad debts. (2) mortgage securitization
for the sake of liquidity and risk diversification, American banking and financial institutions package mortgage loans including subprime mortgage loans and sell them to social investors through investment banks. The huge real estate bubble has been transferred to the capital market, and has been passed on to the whole society investors, shareholders, enterprises and various banking and institutional investors all over the world. Thirdly, the alienation of investment banks
investment banks are financial intermediaries, but the role of investment banks in the United States is alienated because of the huge profits of mortgage securitization. At the same time, we can earn intermediary fees by underwriting bonds, and gain income by buying and selling subordinated bonds on a large scale. Figuratively speaking, it's from a dealer to a gambler or even a banker. The alienation of the role not only makes the intermediary lose justice, but also drags himself into the mire< (4) the financial leverage ratio is too high
if the financial market is to be stable, the financial leverage ratio must be reasonable. American financial institutions pursue profits unilaterally and expand excessively, using a small proportion of their own funds to achieve scale expansion through a large number of liabilities, with leverage ratio as high as 1:20-30 or even 1:40-50. In the past five years, American financial institutions have concocted a huge market and false prosperity with this excessive leverage ratio. For example, Lehman Brothers used its own funds of $4 billion to form a bond investment of about $200 billion< (5) credit default swap (CDS)
the leverage ratio of financial investment in the United States can reach 1:40-50, because of the existence of CDs system, credit insurance institutions provide guarantee for these risky financing activities. If the financing party has financial problems, it shall be compensated by the institution providing insurance. However, in the absence of default, insurance institutions can sell CDs in the market in addition to risk compensation. As a result, a huge CDS market with a scale of more than 33 trillion US dollars is formed. The emergence of CDs, while avoiding the local risk, increases the overall financial risk, so that the decentralized and controllable default risk is concentrated to the credit insurance institutions, and becomes highly concentrated and uncontrollable risk< (6) hedge funds lack of supervision
the interaction of the above five links has formed the source of the U.S. financial crisis, and the "chasing up and killing down" hedge funds have accelerated the outbreak of the crisis. In the United States, there are a large number of hedge funds that lack government supervision. When the U.S. economy is developing rapidly, hedge funds are aggressively long in the commodity market, such as pushing oil to a sky high price of $147; After the outbreak of the subprime crisis, hedge funds madly short the U.S. stock market, accelerating the collapse of the whole system
these six links are linked together to form the spiral and growth chain of the US financial bubble. The destruction of one of the links will proce domino effect and eventually lead to the financial crisis in the United States and even the world today< Second, getting out of the crisis needs three stages of overall planning
2009 is the key year to deal with the world financial crisis. To contain the crisis and get out of the predicament as soon as possible, we must treat both the symptoms and the root causes and combine the near and far. At present, the urgent task is to solve the US $2 trillion financial bad debts. In the medium term, it is to prevent the financial crisis from turning into an economic crisis. In the long term, it is to establish a new world monetary system
(1) the current measures: three moves to save the market
these three moves, one is equity restructuring, capital increase and share expansion; Second, bad debt packing, cutting and stripping; Third, inject funds to solve the problem of liquidity. First of all, the government reorganizes the financial institutions in crisis and increases capital and shares. For example, the United States nationalized Fannie and Freddie and turned private enterprises into state-owned enterprises. Secondly, the bad debts of the banks should be stripped and put aside. After the recovery of the banks, the funds should be redeemed. If the banks fail, the government should pay for the bad debts and clear them. Third, when banks fall into a liquidity crisis and people run, they inject funds to increase cash flow. Or the government can provide guarantee to enhance social confidence; Or the government can provide a guarantee for other banks to lend. According to estimates, there are about $2 trillion bad debts in the United States. This year, we have solved $1 trillion of bad debts by taking these three measures. Next year, we will solve the remaining $1 trillion of bad debts< (2) medium term goal: revitalize the real economy
how to curb the decline of the real economy is a problem that the world attaches great importance to and focuses on solving. The solution is still to increase investment, stimulate consumption and increase exports, as well as loose monetary policy and active fiscal policy. At present, governments all over the world have launched policies to increase investment and stimulate consumption, and they abandon trade protectionism and take joint actions
in the medium term, governments will take three measures. The first is loose monetary policy, loose money, lower interest rates, lower reserve ratio, increase liquidity. The second is the active fiscal policy, which subsidizes enterprises and groups in need to help them tide over difficulties and enhance their vitality. The third is to cultivate market players. We should seize the opportunity for a large number of enterprises to rece proction, stop proction, go bankrupt and close down, promote mergers and acquisitions, and promote the transformation and development of enterprises. As the U.S. government, in addition to starting the three major demands of investment, consumption and export, promoting the structural adjustment of instries and enterprises, and revitalizing the real economy, it also needs to mend the gap, solve the fundamental problem of six links of financial malpractice from the institutional mechanism, and improve the financial system< (3) long term direction: reconstruction of the international monetary system
the Bretton Woods system formed in 1944 is based on gold, with the US dollar as the main international reserve currency. The US dollar is directly linked to gold, the currencies of various countries are linked to the US dollar at a fixed exchange rate, and can be exchanged for gold at the official price of 35 US dollars an ounce. In the late 1950s, with the deterioration of the balance of payments in the United States, there was a global "dollar surplus" and a large outflow of gold from the United States. The U.S. gold reserves could not support the overflow of the U.S. dollar. In August 1971, the Nixon administration was forced to give up the "dollar standard" and implement the free floating of the gold dollar price. The European Economic Community, Japan, Canada and other countries announced the implementation of floating exchange rate. After the formal collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973, although the US dollar no longer bears the obligation to exchange gold, the strength of the euro and the Japanese yen has become stronger, but the core status of the US dollar has not changed
as the main issuer of international currency, the United States should abide by the world financial system, enhance the dollar's sense of monetary responsibility, and prevent the abuse of currency issuing power. However, from the practice of these decades, especially in the last decade, the United States has not shouldered its responsibilities, and its interests and responsibilities are unbalanced. In 2005, the GDP of the United States was 12.5 trillion US dollars, the loan balance was 18 trillion US dollars, more than 50% of the GDP, and the stock market value was 20 trillion US dollars, more than 60% of the GDP. The U.S. government owes more than $10 trillion in debt, with a per capita debt of $30000. The surge of financial indicators means a lot of bubbles, which will bring financial turbulence. From a macro point of view, the international financial crisis is the result of the drawbacks of the existing world monetary system. Therefore, it is an inevitable trend to reconstruct the monetary system to adapt to the new international economic order
what kind of world monetary system is reasonable? In my opinion, the future world monetary system should be a new system in which the three main currencies of the world, namely the US dollar, the euro and the Asian dollar (the Asian currency mainly composed of RMB and yen), stand in balance. A relatively stable floating exchange rate is implemented among the three major currencies, and the currencies of various countries are linked to the three major currencies. The countries corresponding to the three main currencies should implement "g-standard" -- GDP standard. That is to say, GDP should be roughly equal to bank loan balance, stock market value and real estate market value, and keep a reasonable proportion between virtual economy and real economy< Third, China's economy has a strong ability to resist the crisis.
at present, the world financial crisis has also had an impact on China, with the stock market and housing market recovering, the orders of coastal processing trade enterprises decreasing, some enterprises stopping proction and going bankrupt, and the financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises becoming more prominent. However, on the whole, in the context of the accelerated decline of the world economy, China's economic landscape is still good. Why? China's economy has six advantages:
first, huge foreign exchange reserves. At present, there are 190 billion US dollars of foreign exchange reserves, which can withstand the impact of external risks
secondly, traditional saving virtue and high saving rate. Chinese people are instrious and thrifty, and have the traditional virtue of saving. In 2007, China's household savings reached 1.72 billion yuan, with a savings rate of more than 50%. The total amount of domestic and foreign debts of the Chinese government is less than 60% of GDP, and the risk of fiscal liabilities is not high
thirdly, a prudent, strict and flexible foreign exchange management policy with both control and freedom. Under the capital account, foreign capital can not enter or leave China at will, while foreign exchange under the current account is relatively free and flexible
fourthly, there is a vast space for development and a huge domestic demand market. China is in a period of rapid development of instrialization and urbanization and rapid improvement of people's living standards. By 2020, a well-off society in an all-round way will be built, and China's per capita GDP will exceed US $10000 after 10 years. Broad development space and strong domestic demand will not only support China's sustained and rapid economic development, but also play an important role in alleviating the world financial crisis
fifthly, healthy financial system and strict financial supervision. After decades of reform and development, China's financial system has been basically perfect, and its ability to resist market risks has been significantly enhanced. China's financial system is sound, management is strict, and financial derivatives are strictly controlled. There are no problems similar to those of the U.S. financial system
sixth, strong institutional advantages and the government's macro-control ability. China's social and political stability, the graal improvement of the legal system, and the continuous improvement of the development environment. The central government has a superb art of leadership. It sees things early and acts quickly. The predictability, pertinence and effectiveness of macro-control have been continuously improved. For example, in the first half of this year, we will maintain steady and rapid economic development and control the excessive price rise; After September, we will intensify macro-control and implement flexible and prudent macro-economic policies; After November, we will resolutely implement positive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to promote economic growth and stabilize market confidence
overall, China's economic growth will slow down this year. In the first half of 2009, China's economic growth will slow down and begin to walk out of the shadow of the world economic recession in the second half of 2009. The international financial crisis bottomed out by the end of 2009, the economic crisis bottomed out by the end of 2010, and began to recover from 2011 to 2012
the bank deposit interest rate is set by the central bank. All banks follow the same interest rate. There is no concept of which is high and which is low.
thank you
[Abstract] under the background of economic globalization, international economic imbalance will lead to the reallocation of international capital on a global scale. In a sense, the international economic imbalance and the defects of the international monetary system are the preconditions for the outbreak of the financial crisis, while the attack of the international hot money is the precondition for the outbreak of the financial crisis. From the current international situation and China's domestic situation, the prerequisite for the financial crisis has been met, so to prevent the attack of international hot money is the primary goal of formulating the current macroeconomic policy of our country<
[Key words] financial crisis, international economy, international monetary system, international hot money
whether the financial crisis is caused by external factors or internal factors, there have always been two opposite views in the academic circles: conspiracy theory and law theory. Conspiracy theory holds that the financial crisis is caused by premeditated and planned attacks on the economy, and is caused by external factors, especially after the financial crisis in Southeast Asia. According to the law theory, the financial crisis is the law of the economy itself, which is caused by internal factors. The theory of three generations of financial crisis is basically the theory of law of recognition. With the improvement of financial supervision technology, the possibility of a country's financial crisis caused by regulatory or regulatory problems becomes smaller; With the increasing trend of economic globalization, the modern financial crisis basically shows that under the condition of international economic imbalance, international capital, driven by interests, uses the distorted national monetary system to lead to the outbreak of regional financial crisis. Therefore, in essence, the nature and causes of the financial crisis have changed. Based on the existing research, this paper analyzes the causes of the financial crisis from the perspective of international economy< First, international economic imbalance
Huang Xiaolong (2007) [1] believes that international balance of payments imbalance leads to the imbalance of the international monetary system, and virtual economy leads to excess liquidity, which in turn leads to global economic imbalance and financial crisis. Huang Xiaolong studied the financial crisis from external factors. However, fundamentally speaking, the root of global economic imbalance should be the imbalance of the real economy. The imbalance of international payments is just the appearance of the imbalance of the real economy. The imbalance of the real economy leads to the international flow of monetary capital, and the flow of international capital leads to the expansion and depression of the virtual economy, which leads to the shortage of liquidity, It can eventually lead to a financial crisis. Therefore, the imbalance of the global real economy is the necessary condition for the financial crisis, while the liquidity shortage caused by the virtual economy is the sufficient condition for the financial crisis
throughout the history of financial crisis, financial crisis is always accompanied by regional or global economic imbalances. Before the outbreak of the financial crisis in 1929, great changes had taken place in the international economic structure. Britain's world hegemony graally tilted to the United States and Europe. In particular, the rapid economic growth of the United States showed a trend to replace Britain's hegemony. This international economic imbalance laid a curse for the subsequent financial crisis. At the end of the 20th century, the trend of regional economic integration is faster than the trend of economic globalization. The economic relevance between Latin American countries and the United States makes the "Butterfly Effect" of Latin American countries on American economy stronger than other countries. In the last 20 years of the 20th century, when the economic structure of Latin America was unbalanced, it was often manifested as the financial crisis of Latin American countries. The imbalance of economic structure in Europe, the United States and Japan is also the source of financial crisis in Europe, the United States and Japan. When the stable regional or global economic structure is broken, the new economic balance is often driven by the financial crisis. The European financial crisis in 1992 originated from the rapid development of German economy after the reunification of Germany, which broke the economic balance between Germany and the United States and between Germany and other European countries. In 1990, Japan achieved a new economic balance because of the financial crisis after the economic balance between the United States and Japan was broken
regional or global economic imbalance will lead to the reallocation of international capital in a certain range. In the context of regional economic integration and economic globalization, the influence of a country's macro policy may be regional or global. In the short run, the international economy is relatively balanced at a certain point, and the total amount of global capital and demand is certain. When a country's economy changes, it will cause corresponding changes in international capital and demand in different countries. If it is a small country's economy, its impact is only regional. If it is a big country, its impact is global. When the economy of a big country becomes stronger, it will attract international capital into the country, resulting in the capital outflow of other countries. When the capital outflow reaches a certain extent, there will be a shortage of liquidity, and the financial crisis will change from possibility to necessity. The signal of this change is the high interest rate policy of big countries, or the strong monetary policy of big countries. For the small country economy, when the economy becomes stronger, it will attract the inflow of international capital. When the amount of international capital flows into the country, the real economy of the country will absorb the saturation of international capital, and the international capital will merge with the virtual economy of the country to promote the bubble of the economy. When the virtual economy and the real economy deviate seriously, international capital will soon withdraw. As a result, the financial crisis broke out
from the formation path of the financial crisis caused by the international economic imbalance, we can see that the international economic imbalance is manifested through the balance of payments, and the adjustment of the balance of payments imbalance is carried out through the international monetary system. If there is a perfect and effective international monetary system, then the mandatory and destructive adjustment of the international economy can be completely avoided, that is, the occurrence of the financial crisis can be avoided, However, the real international monetary system is manipulated by big powers, so the international economic imbalance will be further distorted and enlarged< Second, the distortion of the international monetary system. Xu Mingqi (1999) [2] holds that, on the one hand, the international monetary system is characterized by weakening order and hovering between reform and maintaining the status quo; On the other hand, developing countries are in a weak position in international trade, investment and debt; The developing countries under the double constraints have to swallow the bitter fruit of the financial crisis again and again, so the inherent defects of the existing international monetary system can not escape its blame. That is to say, the international monetary system follows the basic principles and concepts of the Bretton Woods system in mediating the imbalance of international payments, while countries lose the original order and discipline in formulating monetary policies to coordinate international economic imbalances. Therefore, the current international economic imbalances are magnified and intensified by the current international monetary system
after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the existing international monetary system is a loose international monetary system. Although the role of euro and yen in the international monetary system is graally increasing, the diversification of reserve currency can not effectively solve the "Triffin problem", but only decentralize the contradiction, that is to say, the identity of reserve currency is not only a national currency but also an international currency. It is bound to be in contradiction with the requirements of the world economy or regional economy for the reserve currency countries to formulate macroeconomic policies according to the domestic macroeconomic conditions, which will lead to the instability of the foreign exchange market and the turbulence of the financial market. A country that is linked to or pegged to a certain reserve currency is not only affected by the monetary policy of the reserve currency country, but also by the cross effect of monetary policies among many countries. The changes of exchange rate and interest rate between reserve currencies have a greater impact on developing countries, making the foreign exchange market more unstable and turbulent. This impact can be divided into regional and global. In view of the special status of the US dollar, the impact of US economic policy changes may be regional or global
take the US dollar as an example, the adjustment of US dollar value is realized through the adjustment of US dollar interest rate. When setting US dollar interest rates, the Federal Reserve can not take into account the macroeconomic conditions of countries (regions) pegged to us dollar or using US dollar as reserves. Therefore, when US dollar interest rates are adjusted, it will often have an impact on other economies, especially those countries and regions that have close economic ties with the United States or whose currencies are pegged to us dollar [3]. First of all, the imperfect international monetary system with the US dollar as the pillar, no matter adopting the floating exchange rate policy or the fixed exchange rate policy, the US economy affects all the countries closely related to its economy and the change of their currency value. If the floating exchange rate policy can comply with the discipline of monetary policy making under the monetary system, then there will not be unstable speculative attacks on the world financial market, and there will not be the resulting currency market turbulence or even financial crisis. Due to the contradiction between the autonomy of monetary policy making and the relevance of economic globalization, the current monetary system can not guarantee the discipline of the US dollar under the premise of floating exchange rate. Therefore, a country's macro policy will lead to the currency market turbulence of economically related countries, and the financial crisis will break out under the catalysis of speculative capital. As far as the current situation is concerned, although the Bretton Woods system has collapsed, compared with the emerging market countries and developing countries, the appreciation or depreciation of the US dollar will still cause strong economic fluctuations in these countries. When the U.S. economy is prosperous, the appreciation of the U.S. dollar will lead to the outflow of capital; When the U.S. economy is depressed, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar will lead to inflation in these countries
from the above analysis, we can see that the current international monetary system retains the ideas and principles of the original international monetary system, but it has lost the original order and discipline. Strong economies can use this system to pass on the financial crisis and obtain more profits, without having to bear too much responsibility< Third, the attack of international hot money
international economic imbalance is the precondition of the financial crisis. The imperfect international monetary system will aggravate the international economic imbalance, but the initiator of the financial crisis is international hot money. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the financial crisis cannot be separated from the attack of international hot money. During the 1992 European financial crisis, Soros obtained a 1:20 loan by way of margin. In a short period of one month, he sold short the equivalent of 7 billion US dollars in pounds and bought the equivalent of 6 billion US dollars in marks, forcing the pound to depreciate sharply and making a net profit of 1.5 billion US dollars after repaying the loan. Before the financial crisis in Mexico in 1994, a large number of international hot money continued to enter the Mexican securities market. Among the foreign capital absorbed by Mexico, securities investment accounted for 70% ～ 80%. However, in more than 40 days after the assassination of the Mexican presidential candidate, foreign capital withdrew US $10 billion, which directly led to the outbreak of the Mexican financial crisis [5]. The Southeast Asian financial crisis in 1997 was also the first time for international hot money to attack the Thai baht, buy low and sell high, and skillfully use financial derivatives to obtain high returns
according to the IMF's statistics on international hot money, the international short-term capital in the early 1980s was US $3 trillion, which increased to US $7.2 trillion by the end of 1997, equivalent to 20% of the world's GDP that year. At the end of 2006, the total assets managed by global hedge funds alone reached US $1.43 trillion, an increase of about six times over the end of 1996. The investment strategies of hedge funds are also constantly enriched, from the initial "short selling + leverage" strategy (market neutral Fund), to single strategy (including arbitrage, direction, event driven, etc.), Multi Strategy (including emerging markets, mergers and acquisitions, etc.), fund of funds and other investment strategies. Its risk characteristics also show a trend of diversification, including high-risk, high-yield macro hedge funds and low-risk but relatively high-yield macro hedge funds