Monetary economy and fictitious economy

1. For example, QQ currency and silver in online games are all virtual currencies. Often real money can be directly converted into virtual money. Although virtual money can not be directly converted into real money, it can still be converted into real money through private transactions of netizens

currency is issued by the state, but virtual currency is issued by indivial operators, and there is no relevant laws and regulations to limit its circulation. When this kind of virtual currency issued for the commercial interests of operators and real currency exchange circulation is more and more frequent, more and more widely, and partially replace the real currency to buy goods or services in the market, it is equal to increasing the real money supply

at present, virtual currency is becoming more and more prosperous. Some virtual currencies have evolved into the characteristics of general currency, such as value scale, means of circulation and means of payment. Therefore, it is easy to have an impact on general currency in reality, thus affecting the normal financial order.

2. The formation of virtual economy has experienced five main stages of development. The first stage is the capitalization of idle money, that is, people's idle money becomes interest bearing capital. The earliest origin can be traced back to the business lending behavior between indivials. For example, Party A borrows money from Party B who has spare money to engage in proction and business activities, and it is agreed that Party A will repay the principal and interest to Party B when e. IOU is the rudiment of virtual capital, which gains value through circulation of borrowing and returning. At this time, B did not engage in actual economic activities, just through a virtual economic activities to make money. The second stage is the socialization of interest bearing capital, that is, from indivial lending to banks and securities. With the development of society, as an intermediary, banks have emerged. People deposit the idle money in the bank, and then the bank lends it to earn interest. People can also use the idle money to buy various securities to earn interest. At this time, the securities in people's hands are virtual capital. The third stage is the marketization of securities, that is, the formation of a virtual capital exchange financial market, and then the financial market graally developed from stocks and bonds to futures trading. The biggest problem of the early virtual capital was the lack of liquidity, which hindered the transformation of idle money into interest bearing capital. After the marketability of securities, they can be bought and sold freely according to their expected returns, thus creating a financial market for virtual capital transactions. The fourth stage is the internationalization of financial market, that is, virtual capital can conct cross-border transactions, which has experienced a tortuous process. In the middle of the 19th century, the United States and other debtor governments and railway companies issued bonds with fixed interest rates in the financial markets of Britain, France and Germany. However, it was not until the early 20th century that large-scale transnational securities investment appeared. Since the 1960s, futures trading has appeared in the trading of stocks, bonds, foreign exchange and other financial commodities, and options trading also appeared in 1973. The fifth stage is the integration of international finance. Since the 1980s, with the advancement of economic globalization, the degree of economic dependence among countries has greatly increased, and the degree of financial liberalization has graally increased; Second, with the formation of floating exchange rate system and the enhancement of financial innovation, the scale of virtual economy is increasing; Third, with the progress of information technology, the flow of virtual capital in the financial market is faster and faster, and the flow is also larger and larger. The above three factors promote the closer connection between the domestic financial markets and the international financial markets, and the mutual influence is also increasing. It can be said that the whole body is affected by one thing. The characteristics of virtual economy virtual economy system has several characteristics. One is complexity. Virtual economy is a complex system, which is mainly composed of natural person and legal person. They carry out virtual economic activities in the financial market according to certain rules. Everyone has the freedom of independent decision-making, but can not be affected by other people's decision-making and the environment. Taking the stock market as an example, when an investor buys and sells stocks is his own decision-making, but this decision-making can not be influenced by other people, or by environmental factors such as policies. Although the system is easy to proce turbidity e to the nonlinear interaction between components, it can show a certain order and stability e to the self-organization of the system. Second, metastability. Virtual economic system is a kind of metastable system, which is far away from equilibrium, but can keep relatively stable. With dissipative structure, it is necessary to exchange funds with the outside world to maintain relative stability. For example, in the stock market, there must be buying and selling, and new capital must be continuously injected in order for the stock market to survive. The metastability of virtual economy comes from three aspects: first, the inherent instability of virtual capital. The second is the virtualization of money. After the decoupling of currency from gold standard and gold exchange standard, it no longer has a real value that can be measured by some kind of material object. The government can adjust the money supply by printing money, without the previous money withdrawal mechanism. At this time, the value of money can only be measured by its purchasing power, and it is affected by the circulation of money, interest rate, exchange rate, people's consumption behavior and other factors, so the virtualization of money will enhance the instability of the virtual economy. Third, it comes from positive feedback. Theoretically speaking, the rise of stock price will rece the demand for stocks. As fewer people buy stocks, the supply and demand of stock market will be automatically balanced; However, e to the positive feedback effect in the stock market, many investors are optimistic about the future of the stock market after the stock price rises, and more funds will enter the stock market to speculate. Due to the increasing demand, the stock price will rise further. This kind of positive feedback will cause amplification effect and make the price of virtual capital fluctuate greatly. Thus, the instability of the virtual economic system is aggravated. Third, high risk. It can be divided into objective risk and subjective risk. In recent years, e to the development of information technology, a lot of progress has been made in predicting the future from the past data, but it is still impossible to predict the future completely and accurately, so there are objective risks. Subjective risk comes from people's subjective estimation error of expected return. The development of stock market is supported by people's optimistic psychological expectation. If there is no speculation, bubble and risk in stock market, it is not the stock market. Speculators do not look at the discount of future earnings, but at the price difference between buying and selling. If there is speculation, there must be bubbles. If there are bubbles, there must be risks. This is the subjective risk. This kind of risk has a positive feedback effect and is easy to be amplified, causing panic. In addition, the existence of illegal activities, such as internal transactions, manipulation by dealers and untrue information disclosure, will also cause high risks of virtual economy. Fourth, parasitism. The virtual economic system is proced by the real economic system and attached to the real economic system. Its parasitic performance is that its operation cycle depends on the operation cycle of the real economy, but the short-term deviation may occur. Due to the close relationship between virtual and real economic systems, the risks in real economy, such as overstocking of procts, bankruptcy of enterprises, will be transferred to the virtual economic system, leading to its instability. The risks in the virtual economy system, such as the sharp fall of the stock index, the sharp fall of the real estate price, the sharp increase of bad bank loans, and the sharp depreciation of the currency, will also have a serious impact on the real economy. In the market economy, it is impossible for the real economy to run away from the virtual economic system. Fifth, periodicity. On the whole, the evolution of virtual economy is cyclical. In general, the real economy has accelerated growth, the economic bubble has begun to take shape, currency and credit have graally expanded, asset prices have generally risen, stock and real estate prices have been rising, external disturbances have caused the economic bubble to burst, all kinds of financial indicators have dropped sharply, people have been throwing real assets and financial assets, and the real economy has slowed down or negative growth. This periodicity is not a simple cycle, but a spiral forward. The virtual economy is always in a cycle of expansion, bubble formation, bubble burst, contraction or collapse. The real economy is hardware, and the virtual economy is software. First of all, we should make clear what the real economy is. Marx discusses the process of capital circulation, that is, first employing workers, purchasing raw materials, machines and building factories with monetary capital through exchange, and then turning procts into procts through proction, procts into commodities through circulation, and commodities into money through exchange. I think this process is the real economy. Virtual economy refers to the economic activities related to the circular movement of virtual capital mainly relying on the financial system. This is that monetary capital can make profits without going through the real economic cycle. In short, the virtual economy is the activity of directly making money from money. At present, the scale of virtual economy is much larger than that of real economy. Since the 1980s, the world's average annual economic growth rate has been about 3%, the annual growth rate of international trade is about 5%, the annual growth rate of international capital flow is about 25%, and the total price of global stocks has increased by 2.5 times. According to the data of the International Monetary Fund and the world bank, the world's total virtual economy was 140 trillion US dollars at the end of 1997 and 160 trillion US dollars at the end of 2000, which is roughly five times of the world's GDP. The daily flow of virtual capital in the world is about 2 trillion US dollars, which is about 50 times of the world's daily average trade volume. It can be predicted that with the development of e-commerce and e-money, the scale of virtual economy will continue to expand. The real economy is the hardware in the economy, and the virtual economy is the software in the economy. They are interdependent. The study of virtual economy is not only of theoretical significance, but also of practical significance. On the one hand, it is because the scale of virtual economy is expanding rapidly, and there is still a big gap between China and foreign countries in the development of virtual economy. Compared with the real economy, the scale of China's virtual economy is still relatively small. When the market value of the stock market was the highest, it was only 55% of GDP, and only about one third of it was circulating shares. The bond market and money market were relatively small, and financial derivatives had not yet developed. China did not have such large-scale financial centers as Wall Street in New York and Lombard Street in Britain. On the other hand, e to our lack of experience in how to control the virtual economy, China is facing severe challenges in the virtual economy after China's accession to the WTO. For example, in the use of funds, we still have some experience on how to make use of interest rate difference and time difference, but we don't know much about how to make use of liquidity difference, portfolio difference and risk difference to achieve the optimal balance among profitability, security and liquidity. In addition, we also lack experience on how to recognize and deal with the risks in the virtual economy system. We should seriously study the movement and development law of virtual economy, especially the interaction and influence between virtual economy and real economy, so as to give full play to the role of virtual economy in promoting China's economic development and try our best to prevent and eliminate its negative effects.

3.

Compared with the real economy, virtual economy is the inevitable proct of economic virtualization. The essence of economy is a set of value system, including material price system and asset price system. Different from the material price system which is supported by cost and technology, the asset price system is a set of specific price system based on capitalization pricing, which is also called virtual economy

compared with the real economy, the virtual economy has a strong instability, which is determined by the virtual economy itself. The virtual nature of the virtual economy itself makes the price decision of all kinds of virtual capital in the process of market trading not follow the law of value as the price decision process of the real economy

However, it depends more on the subjective expectations of the virtual capital holders and participants on the rights and interests represented by the future virtual capital, which in turn depends on many non economic factors such as macroeconomic environment, instry prospects, politics and surrounding environment, which increases the instability of the virtual economy

extended data:

the harm of virtual economy

virtual economy is a "double-edged sword", which is proced to meet the needs of the real economy and can promote the development of the real economy; It may also bring great negative impact, even destructive damage to the real economy, which is mainly manifested as follows:

virtual economy is independent of physical capital, has great liquidity, and is a paradise for speculators. With the development of derivative financial instruments, the virtual capital can be separated from the physical capital further, and the liquidity is stronger. It can be used for the holders to operate in a large amount and in a long distance, which will have an impact on a country, a region and even the global economy

from "crazy tulip", "Mississippi hoax" to "bubble on the South China Sea", from "black Monday" and "October Massacre" to "really different this time", every financial crisis has caused serious dislocation of some countries' inverted Pyramid structure, and has interrupted the effective growth of important regional economies, resulting in a severe recession of the world economy. p>

the excessive issuance of virtual currency and the sharp increase of bad bank loans will shake the order and credit basis of the normal operation of the real economy. Since the emergence of paper money, especially the later book money and electronic money, human beings have entered the era of virtual money. Although the emergence of virtual money makes the money supply flexible enough to adapt to the development of real economy, it also makes it possible for excessive issuance and inflation of money

especially when the modern commercial banks with credit creation function are divorced from the actual needs of the real economy and provide credit by creating deposits, the whole real economy will inevitably suffer from inflation

bank is difficult to recover and form a large number of bad debts, it will not only cause the financial assets of banks to generate financial bubbles e to the fact that the real value is much lower than the book value, but also destroy the normal credit relations and shake the credit basis of the stable operation of the real economy. p>

virtual economy distorts the way of resource allocation, reces the efficiency of resource allocation, and hinders the development of physical economy such as agriculture and instry. In the rising stage of the bubble economy, investing in stock market, currencies and real estate can get a high rate of return which is far from the real economy. p> High rate of return makes a large amount of capital flow into stock market, foreign exchange market or real estate from the real economy sector, and the imbalance of capital will lead to a sharp rise in interest rate, which will cause the development of the real economy sector to shrink or even stagnate e to the high financing cost

, at the same time, the high returns of stock market, currencies and real estate make large numbers of talents flow into the bubble economy, and make labor costs rise rapidly e to the shortage of human capital. The excessive expansion of proction costs will rece the international competitiveness of the physical sector. p>

virtual economy destroys the operation of the financial system, reces the anti risk ability of banks, and causes financial crisis. In the bubble economy, speculative activities prevailed and demand for funds increased sharply, which led banks to raise interest rates for a higher profit. p>

high interest rates encourage banks to expand credit, relax the review of credit quality and feasibility study, so that a large number of funds from banks and other financial institutions flow into the stock market, foreign exchange market, real estate and other excessive speculative markets. The physical economy can not bear the high bank interest rates, which greatly inhibits its normal funds. As a vested interest group, banks and other financial institutions have great influence on the stock market, foreign exchange market and real estate market Foreign exchange market and real estate speculation played a negative role

bubble economy distorts consumer behavior, which is an important source of over consumption, and excessive consumption can easily lead to a large increase in imports. At the same time, e to high borrowing costs and labor costs, enterprises will rece export competitiveness

The rapid increase of imports and the sharp decline of exports have damaged the trade balance of current account, resulted in a huge current account deficit and a sharp decrease in foreign exchange savings, which worsened the balance of payments. In addition, the bubble economy can redistribute national income, aggravate polarization between the rich and the poor, and seriously lead to a series of social problems, which pose a threat to social stability. p>

4. "Virtual economy" is a new word that has just appeared in recent years. At present, the domestic research on virtual economy is in the ascendant, and it is still in the stage of contention. Now, the formulation of "virtual economy" is rather confusing. "Generally speaking, it can be summarized into four kinds of statements

the first understanding: Cheng Siwei's definition

Cheng Siwei's definition is: "virtual economy refers to the economic activities related to the circular movement of virtual capital mainly relying on the financial system, which is simply the activities of directly making money from money."

on the "circular movement", Cheng Siwei said: at present, the circulation of virtual economy is in the financial market, first through the exchange, the money is exchanged for IOU, stocks and bonds; Then, at an appropriate time, the IOU, stocks and bonds can be exchanged to change back into money and directly generate money from money

there are three main points in this statement: first, using "virtual capital" as the definition item; Second, the activity of "directly" making money from money; Third, "in the financial market"

this statement has the greatest impact. This is not because Cheng Siwei is vice chairman of the National People's Congress, nor because he is a famous economist, but because he is an authoritative expert and leader in the study of virtual economy in China. He is also the honorary director of the virtual economy and management research center of Nankai University. The center is the first professional research institution named "virtual economy" in China< In addition to Professor Liu Junmin, director of the "virtual economy and management research center" of Nankai University, there are economist Li Xiaoxi, Professor Pan Yingli of East China Normal University, Professor Li Yuzhong of Beijing Normal University, Jiang Xiuqian of the Department of national economy and management of Renmin University of China, and Tao Wenqing of Nanjing University of economics< According to Wang guogang, financial research center of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, "virtual economy" is a concept used to describe the economic activities formed by holding and trading interests in the form of bills in economic operation. In modern economy, it mainly refers to the financial instry. Virtual economy includes not only securities instry, capital market, but also money market, banking instry and foreign exchange market. It is a concept covering financial instry

Li Jiange, an economic expert, expressed "virtual economy" with "economic symbol" and "symbolic economy", which is actually the same view

Cheng Siwei believes that the content of virtual economy is wider than that of finance, and some contents of finance do not belong to virtual economy. The essence of venture capital is the combination of intellectual capital and financial capital (equity capital). Intellectual capital is a kind of virtual capital, but it is obviously not included in the scope of finance< The fundamental difference between this understanding and the first one is that it focuses on capital and avoids "virtual capital"< According to Chen Huai, deputy director of the Institute of market economy of the development research center of the State Council, virtual economy is an economy of capital independence movement. Capital moves independently in the form of value separated from physical economy, which is the fundamental embodiment of the virtual nature of virtual economy. The foundation of the existence and development of virtual economy is property right transaction. The symbol of the high development of market economy is that property right itself has become the object of market transaction

Song Fengming, Professor of Tsinghua University, believes that finance is an important part of the virtual economy, and the capital market is the core part of the virtual economy

"Final Fantasy X" stressed in a post published on the Internet on March 28, 2003: To study the virtual economy, we must first study the value of capital“ Capital can also create value

the fourth understanding: new economy is "virtual economy"

the reason for this view is that the entry point of new economy is virtual space and virtual society. TV is a virtual living space, is the representation of real space. In the Internet age, this space will not only become an important space for human survival, but also a great wealth of human society< According to Jiang Qiping, restructuring the virtual economy in the sense of information space is the virtual economy in the sense of new economy. The framework system of information space is applied to the national economy to form the generalized virtual economy (or information economy). Information space includes "virtual space", "mobile space" and "network society" of "information age Trilogy" as described by Manuel Castel

the basic relationship between the real economy and the virtual economy
in economic operation, & quot; Real economy & quot; It is used to describe the concept of economic activities formed by the proction and sale of material materials and the direct provision of labor services. It mainly includes agriculture, instry, transportation, commerce, construction, posts and telecommunications and other instrial sectors< br />
" Virtual Economy & quot; It is used to describe the concept of economic activities formed by holding and trading interests in the form of bills. In modern economy, it mainly refers to the financial instry& quot; Virtual Economy & quot; At present, it has not become a common concept in academic circles, and people use it more; Virtual capital & quot In Marx's theory, virtual capital refers to the capital held by the owner in the form of equity (or stock) on the basis of the separation of ownership and management of capital. In the new Palgrave Dictionary of economics, & quot; Fictitious capital refers to financing proctive activities by means of credit Second coupon, P. 340). From this point of view, the virtual economy includes not only the securities instry, capital market, but also not only the money market, but also the banking instry and foreign exchange market, which is a concept covering the financial instry. In the historical process, the virtual economy is proced from the inherent needs of the development of the real economy, and its basic purpose is to promote the development of the real economy. In this respect, the main functions of virtual economy are as follows:

first, through issuing and trading relevant bills, transparent financial information and other relevant information of enterprises, guide capital flow, promote and adjust the allocation of economic resources among various real economic departments and enterprises, and improve economic efficiency< Second, promote the improvement of enterprise organizational system (for example, if there is no decentralization of equity and stock trading, there will be no modern joint-stock company and its internal governance structure). At the same time, through the provision of various financial instruments, promote the dispersion of operational risks in the real economy sector

in modern economy, money is no longer a precious metal such as gold. As credit currency, paper money and electronic money are & quot; Virtual & quot; Of; Compared with the real economy, the process of money management and money creation by banks and other financial institutions also belongs to & quot; Virtual & quot; Category. Money, capital and other financial instruments, like blood, have penetrated into all aspects of the national economy. The normal operation of the real economy is inseparable from the virtual economy. A typical example is that as soon as money is tightened, the real economy sector will immediately respond. Throughout the world, it can be said that without virtual economy, there would be no modern economy

in the past 50 years, especially since the 1980s, a remarkable phenomenon in virtual economy is the rapid development of financial derivatives in financial innovation. The main function of financial derivatives is to disperse and prevent financial risks, and promote the effective allocation of economic resources by promoting capital flow (including international flow). In the mid-1980s, with & quot; Plaza Agreement & quot; Since the signing of the agreement, the yen has appreciated greatly (the ratio of yen to the US dollar has risen rapidly from 240:1 to 140:1), which has led to a serious loss in the value of China's yen foreign debt; Turn over, If we can use some operation means (such as hedging) in foreign exchange futures in time in borrowing foreign debts, such losses will not occur. In the international community, there are numerous examples of using financial derivatives to prevent financial risks. There is no doubt that, like other things in the world, financial derivatives also have their negative effects, but these negative effects can be controlled and prevented through strict financial rule of law and strengthening financial supervision.

5. The formation of virtual economy has gone through five main stages. The first stage is the capitalization of idle money, that is, people's idle money becomes interest bearing capital. The earliest origin can be traced back to the business lending behavior between indivials. For example, Party A borrows money from Party B who has spare money to engage in proction and business activities, and it is agreed that Party A will repay the principal and interest to Party B when e. IOU is the rudiment of virtual capital, which gains value through circulation of borrowing and returning. At this time, B did not engage in actual economic activities, just through a virtual economic activities to make money
the second stage is the socialization of interest bearing capital, that is, from indivial lending to banks and securities. With the development of society, as an intermediary, banks have emerged. People deposit the idle money in the bank, and then the bank lends it to earn interest. People can also use the idle money to buy various securities to earn interest. At this time, the securities in people's hands are virtual capital

the third stage is the marketization of securities, that is, the formation of a virtual capital exchange financial market, and then the financial market graally develops from stocks and bonds to futures trading. The biggest problem of the early virtual capital was the lack of liquidity, which hindered the transformation of idle money into interest bearing capital. After the marketability of securities, they can be bought and sold freely according to their expected returns, thus creating a financial market for virtual capital transactions

the fourth stage is the internationalization of financial market, that is, virtual capital can conct cross-border transactions, which has gone through a tortuous process. In the middle of the 19th century, the United States and other debtor governments and railway companies issued bonds with fixed interest rates in the financial markets of Britain, France and Germany. However, it was not until the early 20th century that large-scale transnational securities investment appeared. Since the 1960s, futures trading has appeared in the trading of stocks, bonds, foreign exchange and other financial commodities, and options trading also appeared in 1973< The fifth stage is the integration of international finance. Since the 1980s, with the advancement of economic globalization, the degree of economic dependence among countries has greatly increased, and the degree of financial liberalization has graally increased; Second, with the formation of floating exchange rate system and the enhancement of financial innovation, the scale of virtual economy is increasing; Third, with the progress of information technology, the flow of virtual capital in the financial market is faster and faster, and the flow is also larger and larger. The above three factors promote the closer connection between the domestic financial markets and the international financial markets, and the mutual influence is also increasing. It can be said that the whole body is affected by one thing

the characteristics of virtual economy

there are several characteristics of virtual economy system. One is complexity. Virtual economy is a complex system, which is mainly composed of natural person and legal person. They carry out virtual economic activities in the financial market according to certain rules. Everyone has the freedom of independent decision-making, but can not be affected by other people's decision-making and the environment. Taking the stock market as an example, when an investor buys and sells stocks is his own decision-making, but this decision-making can not be influenced by other people, or by environmental factors such as policies. Although the system is easy to proce turbidity e to the nonlinear interaction between components, it can show a certain order and stability e to the self-organization of the system< The second is metastable. Virtual economic system is a kind of metastable system, which is far away from equilibrium, but can keep relatively stable. With dissipative structure, it is necessary to exchange funds with the outside world to maintain relative stability. For example, in the stock market, there must be buying and selling, and new capital must be continuously injected in order for the stock market to survive. The metastability of virtual economy comes from three aspects: first, the inherent instability of virtual capital. The second is the virtualization of money. After the decoupling of currency from gold standard and gold exchange standard, it no longer has a real value that can be measured by some kind of material object. The government can adjust the money supply by printing money, without the previous money withdrawal mechanism. At this time, the value of money can only be measured by its purchasing power, and it is affected by the circulation of money, interest rate, exchange rate, people's consumption behavior and other factors, so the virtualization of money will enhance the instability of the virtual economy. Third, it comes from positive feedback. Theoretically speaking, the rise of stock price will rece the demand for stocks. As fewer people buy stocks, the supply and demand of stock market will be automatically balanced; However, e to the positive feedback effect in the stock market, many investors are optimistic about the future of the stock market after the stock price rises, and more funds will enter the stock market to speculate. Due to the increasing demand, the stock price will rise further. This kind of positive feedback will cause amplification effect and make the price of virtual capital fluctuate greatly. Thus, the instability of the virtual economic system is aggravated< The third is high risk. It can be divided into objective risk and subjective risk. In recent years, e to the development of information technology, a lot of progress has been made in predicting the future from the past data, but it is still impossible to predict the future completely and accurately, so there are objective risks. Subjective risk comes from people's subjective estimation error of expected return. The development of stock market is supported by people's optimistic psychological expectation. If there is no speculation, bubble and risk in stock market, it is not the stock market. Speculators do not look at the discount of future earnings, but at the price difference between buying and selling. If there is speculation, there must be bubbles. If there are bubbles, there must be risks. This is the subjective risk. This kind of risk has a positive feedback effect and is easy to be amplified, causing panic. In addition, the existence of illegal activities, such as internal transactions, manipulation by dealers and untrue information disclosure, will also cause high risks of virtual economy< The fourth is parasitism. The virtual economic system is proced by the real economic system and attached to the real economic system. Its parasitic performance is that its operation cycle depends on the operation cycle of the real economy, but the short-term deviation may occur. Due to the close relationship between virtual and real economic systems, the risks in real economy, such as overstocking of procts, bankruptcy of enterprises, will be transferred to the virtual economic system, leading to its instability. The risks in the virtual economy system, such as the sharp fall of the stock index, the sharp fall of the real estate price, the sharp increase of bad bank loans, and the sharp depreciation of the currency, will also have a serious impact on the real economy. In the market economy, it is impossible for the real economy to run away from the virtual economic system< The fifth is periodicity. On the whole, the evolution of virtual economy is cyclical. In general, the real economy has accelerated growth, the economic bubble has begun to take shape, currency and credit have graally expanded, asset prices have generally risen, stock and real estate prices have been rising, external disturbances have caused the economic bubble to burst, all kinds of financial indicators have dropped sharply, people have been throwing real assets and financial assets, and the real economy has slowed down or negative growth. This periodicity is not a simple cycle, but a spiral forward. The virtual economy is always in a cycle of expansion, bubble formation, bubble burst, contraction or collapse.

the real economy is hardware and the virtual economy is software. Marx discusses the process of capital circulation, that is, first employing workers, purchasing raw materials, machines and building factories with monetary capital through exchange, and then turning procts into procts through proction, procts into commodities through circulation, and commodities into money through exchange. I think this process is the real economy. Virtual economy refers to the economic activities related to the circular movement of virtual capital mainly relying on the financial system. This is that monetary capital can make profits without going through the real economic cycle. In short, the virtual economy is the activity of directly making money from money< At present, the scale of virtual economy is much larger than that of real economy. Since the 1980s, the world's average annual economic growth rate has been about 3%, the annual growth rate of international trade is about 5%, the annual growth rate of international capital flow is about 25%, and the total price of global stocks has increased by 2.5 times. According to the data of the International Monetary Fund and the world bank, the world's total virtual economy was 140 trillion US dollars at the end of 1997 and 160 trillion US dollars at the end of 2000, which is roughly five times of the world's GDP. The daily flow of virtual capital in the world is about 2 trillion US dollars, which is about 50 times of the world's daily average trade volume. It can be predicted that with the development of e-commerce and e-money, the scale of virtual economy will continue to expand

the real economy is the hardware in the economy, and the virtual economy is the software in the economy. They are interdependent<

the significance of studying virtual economy

studying virtual economy has not only theoretical significance, but also important practical significance. On the one hand, it is because the scale of virtual economy is expanding rapidly, and there is still a big gap between China and foreign countries in the development of virtual economy. Compared with the real economy, the scale of China's virtual economy is still relatively small. When the market value of the stock market was the highest, it was only 55% of GDP, and only about one third of it was circulating shares. The bond market and money market were relatively small, and financial derivatives had not yet developed. China did not have such large-scale financial centers as Wall Street in New York and Lombard Street in Britain. On the other hand, e to our lack of experience in how to control the virtual economy, China is facing severe challenges in the virtual economy after China's accession to the WTO. For example, in the use of funds, we still have some experience on how to make use of interest rate difference and time difference, but we don't know much about how to make use of liquidity difference, portfolio difference and risk difference to achieve the optimal balance among profitability, security and liquidity. In addition, we also lack experience on how to recognize and deal with the risks in the virtual economy system. We should seriously study the movement and development law of the virtual economy, especially the interaction and influence between the virtual economy and the real economy, so as to give full play to the role of the virtual economy in promoting China's economic development, and try our best to prevent and eliminate its negative effects

6. The essence of virtual economy
no matter how much economists talk about virtual economy, the ugly essence of virtual economy can never be covered up: it doesn't proce any material object or utility value, and it plays financial tricks of cheating money with symbols and concepts. As for what is a virtual economy, it is not the financial securities instry, the real estate instry, the gambling instry, the collection instry, or even the sports and cultural undertakings that economists say. As long as it can proce procts and provide utility, whether it is material or spiritual, it should not be a virtual economy. For example, real estate is the creation of use value, if there is no speculation and bubble, it is not a virtual economy; If banks do not engage in financial derivatives, stocks and securities do not issue at a premium, collection does not engage in speculation, and sports culture does not engage in gimmicks, it is not a virtual economy. There is only one instry that is a natural and genuine virtual economy, namely gambling. Gambling is the essence of virtual economy. When the financial securities, real estate, collection and other instries use people's gambling psychology to circle and cheat money, it will become a virtual economy.

7. Virtual economy
refers to the economic activities of virtual capital which are relatively independent of the real economy. Virtual capital generally refers to the capitalization of expected future income in the form of securities (such as bonds and stocks). According to Marx, virtual capital has no value in itself, it is the essence of real capital; Paper & quot;. Since the 1980s, the forms of virtual capital have become more and more diversified, and the degree of virtual capital has become higher and higher, such as various financial derivatives. Virtual economy is a reflection of the real economy in a certain form. Its development has a positive role in promoting the development of the real economy on the whole, but if it develops excessively, it will also have a negative impact. The positive effects of virtual capital are: promoting the optimal allocation of resources; Promote social idle funds into proction and operation funds; Promote the improvement of economic benefits. The negative effect of virtual capital is to increase the possibility of turbulence and crisis in the national economy. In general, virtual capital is the proct of social and economic development. As long as we control its negative impact and develop steadily, it can play a huge role in promoting the economic and social development

in order to keep and increase the value of paper money, people can only be forced to open a second battlefield outside the real economy - virtual economy. In short, the virtual economy is the exchange of money, or the exchange of money and bills, or money makes money. Its characteristic is that the flow of money does not drive the flow of physical goods and the occurrence of effective services. The exchange of money and goods, money and services, the flow of money can drive the flow of physical goods and the occurrence of effective services, is the real economy. It can be said that people go to the bank to get interest, buy stocks and bonds to earn interest, and even speculate on stocks and bonds, buy insurance and various financial derivatives; The exchange of funds between enterprises and financial institutions, between financial institutions, between the central bank and the state finance and financial institutions, and between listed companies and the stock market are all virtual economic behaviors
on the surface, the function of virtual economy is to increase the liquidity of money and raise funds for the development of economic operation, but in essence, it is a flood discharge area that the rich people find a way to maintain and increase the value of rich money, and the state is forced to open up in order to maintain macroeconomic stability and prevent the flood of rich money from impacting the real economy. However, it is a pity that in the paper currency system environment, not only the virtual economy will cause instability to the real economy after the funds raised by means of loans, stocks, treasury bonds, insurance, etc. as mentioned above are put into the real economy, but also the damage to the real economy is still very serious in the process of raising funds

A was forced to expand the total amount of money supply, which only increased the uncertainty of the real economy
after people deposit money in the bank, the bank can't lend all these funds in time, which will result in a huge deposit loan gap; When people are speculating in the stock market and securities market, they will set up capital accounts and reserve a large amount of funds to wait for a favorable market. These funds will form a huge monetary deposit; After banks, joint-stock companies, the Ministry of Finance and insurance institutions obtain funds, they will also form in transit delay in the process of putting these funds into the real economy, resulting in different scales of money precipitation. However, as long as the virtual economy runs for one day, the phenomenon of currency precipitation can not be avoided. In order to make up for the amount of money necessary for the operation of the virtual economy, the state must expand the amount of money on a large scale and without rules beyond the actual demand of the real economy. However, these over issued currencies may be released into the real economy at any time, causing macro instability. Therefore, the larger the scale of virtual economy, the greater the potential threat to the real economy
Mr. Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of the National People's Congress, pointed out that & quot; At present, the total scale of the global virtual economy has greatly exceeded the real economy. By the end of 2000, the total volume of the global virtual economy had reached 160 trillion US dollars, of which the market value of stocks and the balance of bonds were about 65 trillion US dollars, and the over-the-counter trading volume of financial derivatives was about 95 trillion US dollars. However, the gross national proct of all countries in that year was only about 30 trillion US dollars, which means that the scale of the virtual economy has reached five times that of the real economy. The average daily flow of virtual capital in the world is more than US $1.5 trillion, which is about 50 times of the average daily real trade volume in the world. That is to say, only 2% of the daily flow of capital in the world is really used in international trade, and the rest is in the financial market to make money;. It can be seen that once the massive virtual economy is powerful, the weak real economy will be vulnerable and completely paralyzed

b increases the difficulty of measuring monetary demand and the implementation of monetary policy
in order to make the virtual economy work, how much extra money does the country need to put in? This is indeed a worldwide problem, and it can also be said that it is a problem that can not be solved at all. For example, with the rise of the share price, a stock with a face value of 1 yuan may absorb capital from the real economy several times or dozens of times to speculate in the market. A large number of funds rush to the local real economy in an instant, and the local real economy will lose blood and shock. But who can figure out where all the money coming for the good comes from? Who can figure out the amount of these currencies? Who can tell how long these currencies will stay in the stock market? Who can say clearly which links of the real economy as a whole and even some parts need to be supplemented with money and how much money? A series of unknowns can only make macroeconomic managers such as the governor of the central bank walk on thin ice in the dark
if the general direction of monetary policy and the total amount of money investment and collection are roughly determined according to the estimation, the virtual economy will still cause various troubles to the implementation of the policy when operating the money supply and recovery policy. For example, the heavy burden of tuition is an important reason for the lack of consumer demand and the aggravation of social contradictions. The state is ready to increase effective demand by means of student loan to ease social contradictions. However, in implementing this seemingly simple policy, because each bank has its own independent economic interests, They will rightfully play the banner that the credit information is not perfect and can not prevent business risks, and set up layers of obstacles for student loans. Therefore, any good and timely policy, as long as it enters the virtual economy, which is a sea of material desires, will also become a bickering project

C increases the proction cost of social wealth
banking, securities and other virtual economy instries do not proce any physical goods, and almost do not provide any effective labor services, but they have a huge employment team and high-level operating places, which has caused a huge waste of social labor<

d set off a frenzy of money worship
the original purpose of people's participation in proction and business activities is to obtain more and better material procts and services, and money is just a tool or means to obtain material procts and services. However, in the virtual economic environment, people with money do not need to participate in any labor and management of the real economy. They can make money by relying on money. Under the illusion that money is omnipotent, the proction of material procts and service procts with real use value or utility has been put aside, but the pursuit of money has become the only purpose for people to participate in all economic activities. The country also regards GDP, which can not truly reflect people's actual living standard, as the only goal. In order to make achievements in exchange for the popularity of the stock market and bank credit, the government plays the number game in order to make achievements and win the favor of the superior or the rich voters. At present, although China's annual GDP growth is only about 8%, in order to maintain this growth rate, the money supply is growing at a dangerous rate of about 20%. Although China's experts incapable of action are more aware of the economic bubble, what they mean is what they are all about. But because they are generally thinking of their own thinking in the old and narrow framework of the paper money system, which is drawn up by western economics, even though the danger of China's economic bubble explosion is getting closer and closer, there is nothing we can do to wait for it to happen.

e is hard to avoid the black hole of the stock market
the ideal stock market should be the bridge and link between investors and entrepreneurs. Investors with funds but without projects can find the best investment projects in the stock market. Entrepreneurs (enterprises or indivials) with projects and lack of funds can introce their projects to investors to draw funds to develop projects, After the two-way voluntary marriage, investors and entrepreneurs will focus on the operation and management of the project. The common goal of both sides is to maximize the economic benefits of the enterprise and obtain the maximum dividend. No one will focus on the stock speculation, Although some stocks will have temporary price fluctuations because of the advantages and disadvantages of business performance and the amount of dividends, the overall fluctuation of the stock market has always maintained at a relatively stable level. Bull market and bear market are rare in a hundred years. Such a stock market is the ideal healthy stock market< However, in order to maintain such a healthy stock market, there must be a prerequisite: investors, entrepreneurs and stock market regulators should be honest with each other. For example, investors use personal funds for real investment, rather than use other people's funds for speculation; The project and enterprise information introced by entrepreneurs to investors are true, and the financial performance statements are waterless; Every stock market regulator has no chance to seek personal interests from the stock market. Only after maintaining a healthy stock market can they get the material and spiritual rewards they deserve

but people are selfish. In order to ensure that investors, entrepreneurs and stock market regulators are honest with each other in the stock market atmosphere, we need to use the system to restrain people's selfishness. However, in the chaotic banknote system environment, it is very difficult to restrain people's selfishness. Even in the United States, which claims to have the most perfect system, it is impossible to avoid the collapse of Enron and the fraud of Andersen accounting firm. In China, where the supervision is more unfavorable, the events of cheating investors by listed companies are more frequent. Therefore, the stock market under the paper money system environment often becomes another black hole that devours wealth. Therefore, although many of Mr. Wu Jinglian's views can not be approved, the judgment of the stock market gambling theory is reasonable

for example, the original intention of opening the stock exchange market in China is to allow enterprises to raise funds to develop proction, but it ignores the difficult control of the stock market operation and the evil consequences of excessive speculation by shareholders. When the central government relaxed the control, banks, enterprises and indivials put limited funds into the stock market one after another, which exacerbated the shortage of money in the real economy and the lack of demand. The development funds that enterprises really raised through the stock market are very limited. When the central government strengthens the control, the illegal funds can't enter the market, and the stock price drops e to the lack of funds, the speculators who have suffered heavy losses complain

8. 1、 Virtual economy and real economy
the so-called virtual economy is the inevitable proct of the development of real economy to a certain stage, and it is a relatively independent form of economic activity derived from the virtual capital generated from the credit relationship and credit system. As early as 140 years ago, Marx put forward the concept of "virtual capital" in capital, and discussed it in detail. Marx pointed out that the virtual capital is proced on the basis of interest bearing capital. When the commodity economy develops to the point where the ownership of money is separated from the right to use money, interest bearing capital appears. The emergence of interest bearing capital shows that every fixed and regular monetary income is expressed as the interest of a capital. When people calculate every regular monetary income that will be obtained repeatedly according to the average interest rate, and count it as the income provided by a capital lent according to the interest rate, then the monetary income will be capitalized and the virtual capital will be formed
at that time, according to Marx's theory of virtual capital, there were two different forms. In addition to the above-mentioned public securities such as stocks and bonds, the other form was all kinds of credit instruments proced by credit system, including commercial bills, bank bills and bank notes. This is the focus of Marx's analysis of virtual capital, and it is the first and foremost form of virtual capital The basic form. Today, this kind of analysis still has important theoretical and practical significance. Because, with the increasingly active and unprecedented development of today's world financial market, the financial derivatives developed to avoid risks or speculative profits are increasing, and the scope of virtual capital has been greatly expanded. It includes not only all kinds of securities, but also financial derivatives based on stocks and other original financial instruments, such as futures and futures. Virtual capital has been developed to a higher degree, and graally developed into a relatively independent field of economic activities based on the credit system, which forms the virtual economy. The modern market economy is also built on the basis of the continuous improvement of the credit system. It develops, depends on and promotes each other with the virtual economy and the real economy at the same time, and graally moves towards prosperity
we can see this from the history of American economic development in the past 100 years
looking back on history, we can find that from the development of the west to the construction of the Erie Canal, from the rise of Railways to the civil war, from the instrialization of the United States in the late 19th century to the booming of high-tech instries in the United States in recent years, the American capital market represented by Wall Street has played a very important role in every stage of American economic development. The active capital market provides a continuous stream of funds for the rise and development of the U.S. economy, and Wall Street has graally grown into the center of the global financial system with the prosperity and development of the U.S. economy. For a long time, the success of American economy has been regarded as a good example of the coordinated development between the virtual economy and the real economy. To sum up, the positive role of the virtual economy in the development of the real economy in the United States is at least reflected in the following aspects: first, the development of the virtual economy not only concentrates a large amount of idle and scattered capital into the real economy, provides direct financing support for enterprises, and meets the capital demand in the development of the real economy, And it also plays a very positive role in optimizing the allocation of resources. Secondly, the development of virtual economy is very helpful to disperse business risks and rece transaction costs. First, the emergence and diversification of a large number of financial derivatives provide a variety of choices for the real economy sector and investors to avoid risks. Second, make full use of financial derivatives and proct concentration, promote capital turnover and settlement, greatly ease the various frictions in real economic life, rece transaction costs, so as to improve the operation efficiency of the real economy. Thirdly, the development of virtual economy can effectively stimulate investment demand and consumption, and stimulate the growth of real economy. Not only that, the virtual economy promotes the development of the real economy, but also realizes the unconventional development and rapid expansion. However, it is particularly necessary to emphasize that once the virtual economy loses its effective restriction and strict supervision of the credit system, it will lead to bubble economy if it develops freely and over expands. This will not only have a serious negative impact on the real economy, but also proce a chain reaction, like the "Domino dominoes", which will impact the whole national economy and the global economy. It triggered a recession. This time, the international financial crisis started from Wall Street in the United States is an example
in the face of the current international financial crisis, many people's minds are full of all kinds of questions: why, in the core wall street of such a mature capitalist developed country as the United States, those famous investment banks that were active in the international capital market will collapse rapidly? Why did the so-called "the strictest supervision and the most effective market means" which was highly praised by people create such a serious international financial crisis? With the development of the situation, when people graally see the deeper level of the problem behind these questions, they find that it is regulatory failure, internal out of control, intrigue, secret operation, and so on. Once upon a time, in order to make money, the three major rating agencies, which monopolized the international financial market rating, violated their professional ethics and, in their own words, "sold their souls to the devil.". Nowadays, these institutions, which are said to operate according to market rules, have full credibility and high rating, either go bankrupt or are merged one after another. It is particularly noteworthy that although the United States and the European Union have taken a variety of measures to deal with the international financial crisis, they have not achieved satisfactory results. It can be seen that the problem can not be solved without major operation on some existing mechanisms and systems. Otherwise, even if we get through this crisis, the next one will be more serious. As a result, it is proposed that from the current financial crisis, people can not only see the crisis of national credit in the United States, but also see the bankruptcy of the Neo liberal economic theory which was highly praised by the United States. Therefore, we must change the old financial order dominated by the United States and explore the establishment of a new financial system. Not long ago, the European Union also put forward the idea of carrying out comprehensive reform, which are important issues worthy of our further in-depth thinking and research< Second, thinking about China's capital market
capital market is the category of virtual economy. Through the international financial crisis triggered by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, we should clearly realize that in the process of exploring the capital market with Chinese characteristics, we must not the theory that the capital market of western countries is allowed to develop freely and the state is not allowed to intervene. We must consider whether it is concive to the development of the proctive forces of socialist society, Whether it is concive to enhancing the comprehensive national strength of the socialist country, whether it is concive to improving the standard of people's living standards, to carry out the institutional construction of our capital market, and properly handle the relationship between financial innovation and financial supervision; Deal with the relationship between virtual economy and real economy
as an old financial worker who has worked in the financial field for more than 50 years, I still remember clearly that for a long time, we have been in the process of constantly learning from foreign experience. Over the years, we have been discussing a series of important theoretical and practical problems from the combination of theory and practice, such as why we want to develop the capital market and how to develop the capital market with Chinese characteristics, and graally have a clear understanding of this problem. From this international financial crisis, we must realize that China is implementing a socialist market economy and developing a vibrant capital market with Chinese characteristics. China can not things copied abroad. It must absorb and absorb the essence and discard the dross, and avoid disadvantages, especially in the international financial crisis. We should take strict precautions. But at the same time, we can't deny the positive role of capital market and virtual economy in the development of national economy
reviewing the development practice of China's capital market for more than 10 years, we should see that the development of capital market has not only played a very positive role in promoting China's economic development, but also made remarkable achievements. To sum up, first, it is concive to the sustained and stable investment of long-term funds to support the construction of a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way and realize the grand goal of quadrupling the total economic output. Since the establishment of the capital market, we have raised a large amount of capital through the capital market, which has played an important role in promoting the sustained and rapid growth of the national economy. Second, it is concive to deepening economic system reform and establishing modern enterprise system. The four major banks have carried out reforms and raised a large amount of capital through the capital market. The capital adequacy ratio has been greatly improved and they have stepped into the world's advanced ranks at one stroke. Now it seems that without this major reform, it will be difficult to cope with the negative impact of the financial crisis. Third, it is concive to promoting the optimal allocation of social resources. Fourth, it is concive to promoting the operation of social security and commercial insurance. Fifth, it is concive to expanding domestic demand and increasing social wealth. Sixth, it is concive to our participation in international market competition
therefore, we must strengthen our confidence, constantly deepen our understanding of the general laws of the capital market, be good at using correct policies and theories to guide, and correctly handle the relationship between financial innovation and financial supervision, the relationship between virtual economy and real economy, and the relationship between savings and consumption. As long as the organization is used properly, it will play a positive role in the reform and development of the capital market and promote the healthy development of China's real economy
to learn from the lessons of the international financial crisis and actively promote the construction of capital market with Chinese characteristics, we should focus on the following aspects:
first of all, we should properly grasp the relationship between the development, innovation and effective supervision of capital market. Development is the last word. Only by keeping pace with the times and strengthening effective supervision can the market develop healthily. In my opinion, China's capital market should at least study measures to strengthen supervision from the following aspects: first, China Banking Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission and China Insurance Regulatory Commission should work together to formulate China's laws and regulations comprehensively, work together, strengthen comprehensive supervision and implement supervision. Second, for all kinds of derivatives and procts, especially for the new varieties, we must implement strict supervision, formulate perfect supervision conditions, clarify law enforcement responsibilities, and resolutely avoid the situation of laissez faire. Third, we should pay close attention to the current situation of private funds, conct thorough investigation and research, formulate effective supervision plans, and clarify the responsibilities of supervision. At the same time, it is necessary to establish a strict regulatory system for the short selling mechanism, strengthen the management of the media's stock market comments, and rectify those who are not concive to the stability of the capital market; Those who spread false rumors and make trouble and bring negative influence to the market should be investigated for responsibility
secondly, we should properly handle the relationship between the rise and fall of the capital market. Generally speaking, the rise and fall of capital market are inevitable