Virtual currency replacing bitcoin in the future
Many people think that the reason why bitcoin is valuable is because it is "rare", and if bitcoin is no longer "rare", then it will not have value
this is a misunderstanding. Let's consider a question: what is the essence of all "currencies"
the answer is trust. The biggest reason for the value of the dollar is because of the credibility established for the dollar under the Bretton Woods Agreement, rather than the so-called equivalent exchange with gold (although others say so). The main reason why RMB is valuable is because of the trust system of RMB in China and neighboring countries, rather than the exchange with us dollar reserves (see offshore RMB). This can explain why the currencies of some countries (such as the ruble of Russia, as well as the Zimbabwean currency as you all know) have been greatly devalued, because the government and the current world situation have led to a trust system that does not support the existence of this currency. The so-called economic sanctions and currency speculation are very superficial and superficial reasons
the essence of money is trust
What about bitcoin
bitcoin has no centralized Trust Measurement institution. The value of bitcoin, namely its "credit system", comes from distrust of centralized units. Every country finds that seigniorage is too easy to collect, which leads to the increasingly poor trust between countries. Even the people of all countries do not trust the national currency
and trust, like quality, is conserved. Trust in centralized money decreases, while trust in decentralized money increases naturally
this is the essential reason why the value of bitcoin continues to rise. Therefore, for digital currencies such as bitcoin, there are only two outcomes. Either countries want to understand that they will no longer issue excess currencies, issue additional currencies in a scientific and reasonable way, unify stable exchange rates, and maintain the credit system of centralized currencies, then the value of bitcoin will be infinitely close to zero. Or countries will continue to drink water to quench their thirst, and more frantically use the method of issuing excess currency to collect seigniorage from everyone, then the trust in the centralized currency will be lower and lower, and the total value of bitcoin, a decentralized currency, will be infinitely close to the gross labor value of all the units that do not trust the government and other governments, but need international trade
either the price is crazy or it's worthless
after understanding these, we can answer this question. Will bitcoin be replaced by other digital currencies
swindlers like * * and even the old Wang next door can come and yell, "I spent 10 minutes to change bitcoin's core and create a new digital currency called SBC. Come and join my ICO and pay me seigniorage ~". So, if this happens, will you immediately choose to use Lao Wang's SBC next door
the answer is that some speculators will participate, but the market will not. The reason is very simple, the new cryptocurrency has not been recognized by the market, the application has not been proced, this kind of currency has no way to exchange for means of proction. Then this kind of currency is not money, but a virtual commodity for speculation. In other words, even if old Wang ICO next door has an SBC, no one will choose this kind of currency except those speculators who have no brains
in the current market, there are many other digital currencies, such as Ethereum, EOS, XRP, and so on, which may have technological advantages in some aspects (in fact, BTC has been evolving, and it will also learn from the advanced technologies of other digital currencies that have been successfully proved by the market. LTC and other currencies can be said to be the experimental currencies of BTC's advanced technologies.), There may be more application scenarios than BTC in the future, but they are not likely to challenge the status of BTC. BTC will always be the first consensus in the currency circle, which is the belief of many people. BTC will exist for a long time as the gold in the currency market, not mainly for the circulation of digital currency
we can't say the timetable of digital currency yet. China has a large population and a large volume. For example, a new version of RMB can be changed in a few months for small countries, but it will take about 10 years for China. Therefore, digital currency and cash will be parallel and graally replaced for quite a long time. In the later stage, the transaction cost of cash will graally rise. For example, in the past, banks were asked to count a large number of coins, and there was no charge for them. Later, they may need to charge. With the incentive mechanism, people will naturally use more digital currency, but the two will still co deposit in the longer term
the central bank's issuance of digital currency is also inspired by cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and lettercoin, and the European crowdfunding model of combining digital currency with real assets also draws on the experience of bitcoin.
at the end of October 2013, Hong Kong GBL platform absconded with money, and the whereabouts of more than 20 million RMB were unknown
on the evening of February 28, 2014, the operator of mt.gox, the world's largest bitcoin exchange, announced that all bitcoins on the trading platform had been stolen
the management of Mt. GOx said that after the trading platform was attacked by the Internet in early February 2014, almost all bitcoins traded on the platform disappeared, including about 750000 bitcoins in the user's trading accounts and about 100000 bitcoins held by Mt. GOx itself. According to 28 trading, the loss of about 467 million U.S. dollars
since it is a proct on the Internet, we should always guard against shadow criminals. If they are careless, they can steal everything from you. You know, tigers still have time to nap
bitcoin risk 2
the virtual bitcoin mine developed by Zhongben Cong can proce 21 million, which will be completed in 2140. From the first batch of 50 after 2009 to now, more than 13 million have been excavated, and there are still 8 million in the remaining 100 years. It sounds like the method of locking in the total quantity is used to increase the price. Does anyone think that since it is a virtual mine, someone will design a second or countless similar mines in the future. Moreover, with the development of the Internet, the proction process of the virtual currency designed later is more complex and interesting than bitcoin
the popular digital currencies in 2013 include bitcoin, Leyte coin, zeta coin, pennies (Internet), invisible gold bar, red coin, pole coin, barbecue coin and prime currency. At present, hundreds of digital currencies are issued all over the world
in a few years, there will be thousands of virtual e-currency loans. The final result of development will be nothing to lose and all the money will be thrown on the floor
bitcoin risk 3
when bitcoin appears, it has already played a role in disrupting international finance. Countries must not watch virtual currency signal to disrupt their own financial markets. As a result, the major league of international financial organizations must crack down on or force the rectification of the virtual goods market, just like international terrorists
in addition, virtual currency has no ability to resist risks at all, and does not have the standard of credit rating at all. At that time, thousands of virtual currencies will return to the starting point of game currency
after a period of false speculation, the indivials or organizations of Zuozhuang have quietly left one after another, and the remaining virtual currency owners will face the end of "poor people kill evil people". Even if they fight hard, it will not help, and the result must be very miserable.
bitcoin has many advantages such as world circulation, decentralization, exclusive rights and fixed quantity, and its formation is also under the needs of human economic development. Therefore, with the development of bitcoin, its existence will bring certain challenges to the traditional currency. However, at present, although bitcoin believes in liberalism and the principle of science and technology, it has brought great challenges to the traditional currency. However, from the characteristics of bitcoin circulation, such as high risk, difficult supervision and instability, bitcoin can only coexist with the traditional currency for a long time in the future, but it can not replace the traditional currency.
however, bitcoin is still the most popular decentralized virtual currency so far, but no one can guarantee that it will always be in this position. Now there are some alternative currencies inspired by bitcoin. However, a more reasonable assumption is that the new currency needs significant improvements to replace bitcoin in the established market. Of course, these are still unpredictable. Without changing the basic composition of the protocol, bitcoin may also adopt some measures to improve the competitive currency
I feel that Shanzhai currency can only occupy some bitcoin markets, but it can not replace bitcoin. For example, dog money has seized the charity and small reward market; Fuyuan currency seized the market of commercial integral system; Diablo takes over the geek market (better anonymity) and so on.
Instry insiders believe that the trading platform mode of domestic virtual currency has come to an end. In the future, domestic virtual currency trading will be reflected in two ways: one is the OTC trading, which is concluded by the agreement of both investors, rather than relying on the bidding match of the trading platform; Second, some domestic trading platform business focus moved to overseas, or domestic investors went to overseas trading platform to invest in virtual currency
according to Zhao Shouguo, a professor at school of economics and management of Northwest University, such OTC transactions are not guaranteed, which also increases the difficulty of supervision. At the same time, he believes that the closure of mainstream virtual currency exchanges such as bitcoin in China has given many "Shanzhai currencies" opportunities
first of all, we need to be clear - what is currency? In essence, money is an identification of collective will
no matter what form of money is, it needs human recognition of its value before it can be used for trading (it has three main characteristics: 1. Scarcity; 2. Difficulty to , proce or transport; 3. Economic value). This is true of shells, gold and legal coins
bitcoin relies on blockchain Technology (the so-called blockchain is to explore the potential value of human beings in the form of Computing). Generally speaking, for example, there is gold underground in South Africa, but it has not been mined. Do you admit that the gold can be traded? If you trust to trade, the bitcoin will be valuable, If you don't trust a computer, it's worthless data
in short, transactions divided by barter accidents are all public trust exchanges, so bitcoin (endorsed by human potential value) may also replace legal currency (endorsed by government tax); The biggest problem is that if the issue of bitcoin overdraw the future of mankind, our finance would collapse. Therefore, in the past 20 years, legal currency should still be the mainstream (at the same time, it is linked with taxes and rare metals, and the security is relatively high)
the content of this paper is based on xiaoshuo 2018 ~ introction to the economic system
I hope I can help you a little bit, thank you.