When will 3M virtual currency collapse
1、 Common analysis of virtual currency (1) bitcoin solution is designed and created by Japanese programmer Nakamoto (alias) in 2009, and it is the most successful and controversial network currency at present. Bitcoin scheme is based on P2P network architecture, which has been operating in the world, and can be used for all kinds of virtual and real goods and services transactions
In theory, if the existence of network currency affects the demand for the central bank's liabilities, and then interferes with the central bank's open market operation, it will have an impact on a country's monetary policy and price stability. However, from a practical point of view, the premise of network currency affecting price stability includes the following three aspects:(1) from the analysis of the impact on the amount of money, although it is difficult to analyze the extent to which the network currency scheme creates money in the case of lack of information
However,however, most Internet money systems operate in prepaid mode, that is, issuing Internet money when the real money is exchanged in and withdrawing money when the real money is exchanged out. In the famous network currency scheme, the supply of money is stable and the supply is small, but we still need to be vigilant whether it can ensure that the money supply will maintain a stable level in the long run, and the impact of the change of exchange rate between network currency and real currency
(2) from the analysis of the impact on the speed of money circulation, the use of cash and money statistics, the impact of the technological innovation brought by the network currency scheme on the speed of money circulation is not clear
as an Internet instry, it largely depends on the number of active internet currency scheme users. If the network currency is widely accepted, it will have a substitution effect on the real currency of the central bank, thus recing the use of cash in transactions
in this case, the scale of the central bank's balance sheet will be reced, and its ability to influence short-term interest rates will also be weakened. The central bank will need to fight against risks through ways such as setting minimum reserves for cyber currencies. Substitution effect will aggravate the difficulty of monetary statistics and affect the relationship between monetary statistics and inflation, which is not concive to the realization of long-term price stability. In addition, the issuance of network currency outside the central bank and the expansion of virtual credit will have an impact on the central bank's interest rate decision in the economy and weaken the central bank's monetary control
(3) from the analysis of the interaction between network currency and real economy, network currency can act as a real commodity trading medium and have an impact on real GDP
The influence of network money on real money supply depends on two aspects: one is the substitution effect of virtual economy on real economy; the other is the substitution effect of virtual economy on real economy; The second is the crowding out effect of Internet money on real money, that is, with the increase of the total amount of Internet money, the amount of cash held by the public in real life decreases, resulting in the decrease of cash / deposit ratio and the increase of money multiplier. In reality, the network virtual currency scheme will not affect the price stability at this stage, and the money flow speed will not be significantly affected in the short and medium term. However, the interaction between network currency and real economy deserves attention (2) financial stability risk when the virtual currency scheme operates outside the banking system, the most important factor of financial instability lies in its connection with the real economy, namely exchange rate and exchange market. Obviously, the closed network currency scheme and the one-way flow network currency scheme are not affected, so we should focus on the two-way flow network currency scheme. The value of two-way network currency depends on the level of money supply and demand in the exchange market. A big difference between network currency and real currency is that the network currency scheme is not based on the country or currency region, and the influence of virtual economy intensity, trade or proction capacity on its exchange rate is limited. The price of virtual money and its fluctuation depend on five factors:(1) money supply and other actions taken by currency issuers. For example: to achieve a fixed or semi fixed exchange rate by intervening in the market
(2) the network currency scheme shows network externality, and its monetary value depends on the number of users and merchants. As the number of consumers and businesses increases, their monetary value will increase accordingly. In addition, the exchange rate of network currency with small transaction volume fluctuates more(3) the virtual community with clear and transparent policies and advanced security measures is easier to boost confidence and the currency is stronger
(4) the reputation of network currency issuers in fulfilling their commitments. There is no "lender of last resort" in the virtual community, and the trust gained by the issuer is crucial to the exchange rate of internet currency
(5)
speculation on the future value of Internet money and cyber attacks on virtual communities. Due to the immaturity of the system, low trading, speculative activities and network attacks, the two-way network currency scheme is inherently unstable
qualitative. At present, the trading volume of these network currencies is small and the correlation with the real economy is low, so the stability of the financial system will not be affected. However, if Internet money becomes a substitute for traditional money in the future, it will bring instability to the financial system and even distort the relative prices of goods and services. The impact of network currency system on the financial system largely depends on the number of active users and the number of merchants who are willing to accept virtual currency for real transactions. In addition, virtual currency has only exchange value and no use value. Generally, network currency is not based on assets with intrinsic value and is not supported by central bank credit. At present, these network monetary systems are not allowed to lend
or borrow funds, so it can not pose a threat to the stability of the financial system, but we should pay close attention to its development. If there is any change in the future, it will undoubtedly have an impact on the financial system
in a specific virtual community, virtual currency payment activities have evolved into a "real" payment system, facing typical risks related to the payment system: credit risk, liquidity risk, operational risk and legal risk. The nature, scale and ration of these risks are largely determined by the design of the system or the degree of lack of liquidity, so it is difficult for the network virtual currency scheme to avoid or control these risks. According to the core principles of payment system (CP) issued by the bank for International Settlements (BIS), the network virtual currency scheme does not conform to most of the contents of CP, and does not belong to the systemically important payment system. Therefore, it will not cause
or transmit shocks in the global financial system. At present, there is no systematic risk in the network currency system outside these virtual communities
2. Lack of corresponding supervision and protection mechanism
in the real economy, the central bank plays the role of lender of last resort and has no default risk, so it can take actions in the case of payment crisis or unpredictable liquidity shortage to avoid chain reaction. However, in the network virtual currency scheme
it is impossible to use network currency as settlement asset. Because network currency simply depends on the credibility of the issuer, it can not be widely accepted as a means of payment, so network currency can not be regarded as a safe currency. In addition, commercial banks are required to accept prudential supervision, which reces the possibility of default, and the security of money in commercial bank accounts is higher than that of network currency. A fundamental risk of network currency is that the settlement institution of network currency scheme is not subject to any supervision, no institution is responsible for its behavior, and there is no investor / depositor protection mechanism, which causes the user to bear all the risks
supervision and the anonymity, invisibility and difficulty in tracking of its transactions, the network virtual currency scheme is very easy to be used by terrorist activities, fraud, money laundering and other illegal activities. At present, many government departments in many countries are considering whether to recognize or
legalize these virtual schemes and bring them into the scope of supervision, so as to support the innovation of currency and payment forms, protect the rights and interests of consumers and financial stability, and inhibit the use of virtual currency schemes to engage in criminal activities
at present, the uncertainty of the legal status of the virtual currency scheme may also bring challenges to the government authorities (5) reputation risk of monetary authority the reputation of Monetary Authority (central bank) is the key factor to determine the effectiveness of monetary policy. The public's trust in fiat money is closely related to the image of the central bank, which pays close attention to its reputation. The ECB defines reputation risk as the risk of deterioration of reputation, credit or public image. As the network currency scheme is related to money and payment, it is generally believed that it belongs to the responsibility of the central bank, so we should be alert to the reputation risk it may bring to the central bank. However, in the case of small scale, the impact of the failure of the network currency scheme is limited, but its high volatility and instability also aggravate the possibility of failure and attract extensive media coverage. If the network currency is allowed to develop continuously without
regulation, the central bank may be considered as dereliction of ty and affect its reputation (6) the risk of investors' loss
for exchange value, the public has a higher recognition of the investment value of network virtual currency, and it is investment based transactions that accelerate the formation of virtual currency market. Like other investment markets, participants in virtual money market will also face potential losses caused by market risk, credit risk and policy risk. Take bitcoin as an example: from 2009 to early 2010, bitcoin was worthless; In the summer of 2010, bitcoin trading began to enter the golden
period. As the supply was far less than the demand, the value of online trading began to rise. In early November, bitcoin was silent at 29 cents for many days, and then jumped to 36 cents; In February 2011, bitcoin continued to appreciate, and its exchange rate with us dollar
reached 1:1; In 2013, the price of bitcoin achieved a "Big Bang" growth, and hit US $1242 on November 29, 2013, surpassing the gold price of US $1241.98/ounce in the same period. Fierce price fluctuations make market participants face huge speculative risks. Unlike mature capital markets such as stocks and bonds, the depth of bitcoin market is insufficient, and it is mainly held in the hands of large investors with low degree of diversification. Bitcoin price is easily affected by large investors' buying and selling behavior, and also easily manipulated by speculators. At the same time, different countries have different attitudes towards bitcoin, Germany, the United States and other countries hold an open and supportive attitude, and Thailand, Brazil and other countries regard bitcoin related activities
as illegal. Every country's attitude and measures will have a significant impact on the price of bitcoin, especially in the short term
virtual currency is always inferior to real currency< br />
That's inevitable. After all, virtual currency has too many disadvantages
the Internet has led to the emergence of a new market, which is a virtual market based on cyberspace. The Internet provides a lot of communication places for consumers
at the same time, it also provides the business market for enterprises. Enterprises must change from the proct as the core to the service as the core to the customer as the core. With the development of computer artificial intelligence technology and database technology, enterprises can conveniently collect customers' information, understand customers' needs in time, change business strategies and grasp economic arteries in real time
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extended materials:
network virtual currency can be roughly divided into:
the first category is familiar game currency. In the era of stand-alone games, the protagonist accumulates money by knocking down the enemy, entering the gambling house to win money, and using these to buy Herbs and equipment, but it can only be used in his own game console
at that time, there was no "market" between players. Since the establishment of Internet portal and community, the realization of game networking, virtual currency has a "financial market", players can trade game currency
the second type is the special currency issued by the portal website or instant messaging service provider, which is used to purchase the services in the website. The most widely used is Tencent's q-coin, which can be used to purchase membership, QQ show and other value-added services
it is understood that 3M community often introces itself in the publicity materials like this: it is not an investment project, it is not a virtual currency, it is not a pyramid model, it is just a community where strangers help each other. People in the community, there is no hierarchy, no priority, everyone is equal. At present, these websites with the same name all claim that they are the real 3M China websites, while others are high imitations
it is reported that 3M's daily revenue is 1%, monthly revenue is 30%, and annual revenue is 23 times, with no handling charge. In addition, if participants develop others to join, they can also get extra income, such as recommendation Award (10% of offline investment amount), Management Award (the corresponding proportion is determined according to the membership level), unlimited development personnel, unlimited rebate, etc. Such words often appear in various publicity materials of 3M mutual financial community
in response to the emergence of mutual financial community in China, recently, four ministries and commissions, namely the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), the Ministry of instry and information technology (MIIT), the people's Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration for Instry and Commerce (SAIC), issued an early warning to remind investors to promise high returns and attract investment in the name of "MMM financial mutual assistance"
some instry analysts believe that any Ponzi scheme will collapse one day, just for a long time. When the inflow of funds is not enough to maintain the operation of the Ponzi scheme, the collapse will follow. Now the society and media pay more and more attention to 3m mutual financial community, which makes more and more people realize the huge risk. In this way, the number of people and funds involved will graally decrease, which will make the operation of this Ponzi scheme more and more difficult until it collapses. Now 3M's freezing of account bonus is likely to mean that the operation of the Ponzi scheme is in trouble, and the funds are difficult to meet the withdrawal needs of the participants. Therefore, the possibility of running is also very high
netizens are moved by the "high interest rate of 10% every day" and lose all their money.
in addition to the "3M" platform, there is the so-called way to make money dynamically: you recommend this project to your relatives and friends and let them play it together
Ms. Wang from Zibo, Shandong Province, who often participates in Internet finance, failed to resist the temptation and joined the "Houde MMM" financial mutual aid platform recommended by the netizen at the end of November. The platform claims to earn as much as 10% a day. Ms. Wang mobilized her relatives and friends to invest more than 300000 yuan. In the end, not only did she not get the interest, but also the capital
bonus freezes, capital breaks and collapses at any time
most participants know that this mode will not last long, but they all believe that they are not the last investor, and there will always be new investors. Recently, however, the 3M platform seems to be experiencing a capital rupture
according to the daily economic news, the latest notice within 3M system shows that all bonuses in the system will be frozen from December 1 to February 15, 2015, and the system will not be frozen until February 15
3M may collapse at any time with the freezing of bonus, difficulty in cash withdrawal, suspension of rolling investment in turn, and continuous withdrawal of investors
internal mail of 3M system
the CBRC, the Ministry of instry and information technology, the people's Bank of China and the State Administration for Instry and Commerce suggest that in recent years, in the name of "financial mutual assistance", the behavior of promising high returns and luring the public to invest funds has appeared in many places in China. Its main characteristics include: 1
first, there are many names. Common are: "XX financial mutual aid community", "XX financial mutual aid platform", "XX financial mutual aid financing", "XX charity financial mutual aid platform", "XX financial mutual aid investment", "XX mutual aid community", "XX wealth mutual aid platform", etc< Second, it develops rapidly. Relying on the Internet, through the website, blog, wechat, QQ and other platforms, the publicity has a wide range
thirdly, it is confusing. Under the banner of "overseas celebrities", some claim to "destroy the unfair world financial system, break the control of financiers, and create a community for ordinary people" as the goal. Through the establishment of the so-called "fair, just, mutually beneficial and honest financial platform for people to help others", the public can get more help by subsidizing others. At the same time, he falsely claimed that "after market test, he has been mature in many countries for many years, and has hundreds of millions of members in the world" and so on
4. Strong incement. It claims that the investment threshold is low, the cycle is short and the income is high. For example, after free registration, the investment of RMB 60000-60000 can be withdrawn after 15 days, with daily income of 1%, monthly income of 30%, annual income of 23 times, and no handling charge. In addition, if participants develop others to join, they can also get extra income such as recommendation Award (10% of offline investment) and Management Award (the corresponding proportion is determined according to the membership level). There is no upper limit for development personnel and no upper limit for rebate< 5. Strong concealment. Most of them are controlled remotely by overseas personnel, and the investment funds are often transferred through personal bank accounts or through third-party payment platforms
this kind of operation mode violates the law of value, and it is difficult to maintain the capital operation for a long time. Once the capital chain breaks, investors will face serious losses. The general public is requested to raise their awareness of risks, invest rationally and prudently, and prevent their interests from being damaged. At the same time, we can actively report to the relevant departments the clues we have learned about crimes
bitcoin home and many mainstream media have reported similar virtual money pyramid schemes.
foreign currency exchange process:
1, bring my identity document (ID card or passport, etc.)
2, the bank staff checks the information filled in and the authenticity of foreign currency, and I choose the exchange price (the selling price and cash price are executed by the bank)
3, the exchange is completed
remarks:
1. Not all banking offices can handle foreign currency exchange. In some cities, only specific banking offices can handle foreign currency exchange, which needs to be understood in advance
2. The exchange standard of foreign currency is higher than that of RMB. For example, scribbles, advertisements, seriously defaced or even incomplete banknotes may not be exchanged
3. Foreign currency will often stop being exchanged. In view of this situation, domestic banks will also stop exchanging foreign currency
4. At present, there are 19 kinds of foreign currency banknotes that can be exchanged in China, including US dollar, euro, British pound, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Danish franc, Norwegian franc, Swedish franc, Hong Kong dollar, Macao dollar, Singapore dollar, Philippine Peso, Thai baht, Korean won, New Zealand dollar, new Taiwan dollar and Brazilian real.
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