The impact of virtual currency on inflation
LZ is actually a problem that all countries in the world will face in the future. It is obvious that China, the world's largest virtual network market, lags behind developed countries by a large margin. Ha ha, ha ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, The total social demand is greater than the total social supply, and the supply is greater than the demand
2. The regional statistical bureaus under the National Bureau of statistics must count the money circulation of the region every week to report to the Ministry of Finance for filing, and the central bank will set the money supply for the next year. If we find that there is too much money in circulation in the society, we should adopt tightening policy and raise interest rate to recover some money. If there is less, the opposite is true. We will find that no matter where the Bureau of statistics can only count the currency in circulation. For those virtual currencies, they are those Q currencies. China and even many countries still can't make accurate statistics, once the whole China in extreme cases, throw out Q currency for other people's real currency. For example, a sells 10 Q coins to B, and B has to go to the bank to withdraw 10 yuan. If all Q coins are sold off and someone buys them, the market currency will increase, the currency will depreciate and cause inflation
PS: I want to remind LZ that this may be too small. virtual currency is different from e-money. E-money is our common people's lucky money, which is deposited in the bank and converted into bank network currency. The state can get statistics, and the banks have records. Virtual currency is different, many times it is free, so there are many disadvantages when it is immature. Lack of liquidity, not everywhere can use Q currency, it can only be used for Tencent games, electronic currency can be used for any network transactions. If you really take all the Q coins to exchange, the worst may be the collapse of Tencent, which will not cause inflation
sorry, I think that virtual currency does not necessarily cause inflation. For example: A sells Q coins to B, B must withdraw money to buy. There are three possibilities for a to get money: 1. Deposit 2. Holding 3. Consumption. If a chooses to deposit or consume, in fact, the money flows into the bank, which means that B withdraws from the bank and a deposits the money. But if a holds it at home and everyone sells it, it will cause inflation One of Keynes's theorems is liquidity preference. Keynes thinks that money demand refers to the amount of money that the public can and is willing to hold in a specific period. According to him, people need to hold money because of the general psychological tendency of liquidity preference. The so-called liquidity preference refers to people's psychological preference for liquidity and their desire to hold money rather than other illiquid assets. This desire constitutes the demand for money. Therefore, Keynes' money demand theory is also known as the liquidity preference theory, because there are more and more money in the society, the currency devalues.
& quot; And the real money supply can not meet the money demand. Will it cause deflation? But most of the statements about the impact of virtual currency on reality say that it will cause inflation. Why do you say that& quot;
the key lies in the liquidity of virtual currency. If the virtual currency itself can be accepted and circulated in the market like RMB, then issuing virtual currency is equivalent to issuing RMB, and the issuance of virtual currency is very random. If a large number of virtual currencies are issued in the game, there is the possibility of inflation in theory.
but in fact, this situation is very difficult to achieve The essence of unreliability determines that it is difficult for RBM to achieve its acceptance and circulation; Second, the issuance of virtual currency is actually a hedge against the game's demand for RMB. Therefore, the government's restrictions on the use of virtual currency are just a precautionary measure.
2. Specifically, whether the equipment is suitable or the materials are suitable, you should be very clear that you are playing this game, and you should know what is more valuable
When we learn about finance, we will often hear the word inflation. What impact does it have on us? Its existence will cause some phenomena, such as rising prices and devaluation, which will have a certain impact on the country and bring more frustrations to people's lives. Let's think about it, Why does it affect the trend of bitcoin
Therefore, the emergence of inflation also helps the trend of bitcoin and helps its growth. Therefore, it shows that inflation promotes the growth of bitcoin. They are interrelated and help each other. So the main reason that affects bitcoin is the impact of inflation, which makes its existence more important, So many people use him as an important tool to resist this phenomenon. For him, then it will become better and better, more and more fierceThe impact of inflation on currency ratio can be analyzed from two aspects, that is, the impact on the ratio of paper currency and metal currency:
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the impact of inflation on the value of paper currency. Inflation means that goods are in short supply and commodity prices rise, that is to say, more paper money is needed to buy the same procts. From this point of view, inflation reces the value of currency
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the impact of inflation on the value of metal currency. The essence of metal currency is a commodity with value and use value, so inflation has no effect on the value of metal currency
first of all, under the goal of stability policy, we prove that the separation between the growth rate of money supply and the inflation rate is caused by demand shock and monetary shock, so we suspect that the reason why the price inflation effect of current monetary policy is reced is that there are reverse demand shock and monetary shock. In this regard, we use cointegration relationship and ECM model to test. The test results show that there is a positive long-term cointegration relationship between the growth rate of money supply and the inflation rate in China (see cointegration equation (15)), which shows that China's monetary policy still has the ability to ultimately affect the price level, and monetary policy is still the main policy way of price level adjustment. In the long-term equilibrium relationship expressed by cointegration equation (15), the multiplier of money stock level to inflation rate is 0.983. After difference, it shows that 98% of money supply growth rate will be transferred to price inflation, and the long-term neutrality of money variable is still obvious. Therefore, the future economic growth still mainly depends on the expansion of the actual economic scale. At present, on the basis of continuing to adjust the total demand, we should promote the rapid economic growth by cultivating the total demand and realizing the total demand
secondly, by separating supply shock and monetary shock, we find that there are obvious signs of these two kinds of shocks in the current economy, and the direction of shock is opposite to that of price change, which is the main reason for the slight deflation and the decrease of nominal effect of monetary policy. In the ECM model, the overall effect (regression coefficient sum) of various shocks is opposite to the growth rate of money supply, which clearly reflects the impact direction of economic shocks on money supply and price level. The estimation results of ECM model show that the short-term fluctuation between the growth rate of money supply and the inflation rate has brought about a significant deviation between them e to the al impact of demand shock and money shock. The shortage of aggregate demand makes it impossible for the economy to realize flexible quantity adjustment, which leads to downward nominal price adjustment; The decline of nominal interest rate and price level leads to the increase of uncertainty of future income expectation, increases the money holding of residents' consumption, and slows down the speed of money circulation. In addition, the volatility, which represents the intensity of demand shock and currency shock, is also significantly weakened (see Figure 6). This is not only a sign that the gap of insufficient aggregate demand has not been widened, but also a reflection of the positive color of the stable monetary policy
finally, although the current velocity shock and demand shock of money circulation do not show any signs of continuous expansion, they do not show the characteristics of fast convergence to equilibrium. The stability of economic shock shows that the inflation rate, like the economic growth rate, will form a relatively stable stage, which means that deflation, like inflation, will last for a period of time once it is formed. Therefore, the impact of active monetary policy on the price level will also be a long process. Corresponding to the "soft landing" of China's economy, the future expansion of China's economy will also be a period of "soft expansion". In the case of short-term deviation of money supply and price level caused by demand shock, China's economy in the period of "soft expansion" is bound to be accompanied by the slow recovery of price level. Therefore, based on the influence mechanism of monetary policy on the change of price level, we should try our best to prevent the nominal interest rate from falling continuously in the operation of monetary policy, so as to maintain the opportunity cost of money holding, and increase the money supply moderately at the same time; By recing liquidity constraints and incing positive currency shocks, etc; To activate the precipitation of money stock in asset bubbles and release some non circulating monetary holdings, these measures will help ease deflationary pressure or prevent deflation from spreading.
from all aspects of information, the focus of macro-economy will be more and more on the asset sector. It is true that overall prices will continue to bear strong upward pressure. From January to September, CPI still rose by 6.9%. Nevertheless, the possibility of a full-scale inflation is not great. After all, with the turnover of pig proction cycle, meat prices have peaked and fallen; More importantly, with 70% of China's instries in the context of overcapacity, comprehensive inflation is not very realistic
the continuous expansion of the asset sector is changing people's inflation expectations; Moreover, high asset prices play a key guiding role in the mutually reinforcing mechanism of RMB appreciation expectation and hot money inflow. The asset sector, not the banking sector, is where international capital flows in. As a result, the changes in the asset sector are in a central position, no matter for the domestic excess liquidity, credit expansion, inflation expectations, or for the RMB appreciation expectations, international hot money inflows, foreign exchange reserves increase and so on
more comprehensive and effective macroeconomic management will rece the pressure of monetary policy. On the one hand, the effectiveness of controlling inflation pressure, especially asset prices, will increase the difficulty of regulation. Increasing the income of the low-income class and actively promoting the development of the direct financing market may really start consumer demand, make inflation pressure become a normal, and also lead to a surge in demand for the asset sector. With the implementation of these measures, the pressure of monetary policy will increase
monetary policy in this round of macro-control, the central bank is the most firm expression of inflation pressure, and continues to use all available monetary policies to control credit expansion, recover liquidity and control inflation expectations. The central bank has raised interest rates five times in a row this year. Recently, it announced once again that it would raise the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage point to 13% from the 25th of this month. This is the eighth time that the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio this year, and it has been the same as the historical high of 13% set in 1988. At the same time, the central bank spared no effort in issuing central bank bills, window guidance, and establishing China Investment Corporation
another measure to alleviate the pressure of monetary policy is the graal increase of the cost of proction factors and resources and environment. This means that China has been more and more inclined to use the current good situation to solve the long-term lagging problems of social security, income distribution and the transformation of economic growth mode. Economic principles show that if the proction cost of enterprises is reasonably reflected, it will be equivalent to the appreciation of RMB. Although this is a long-term process, the existing information shows that RMB appreciation is also a long-term process
in short, in the process of speeding up the construction of a well-off society, the improvement of institutional infrastructure is helpful to put macro-control on a more stable platform; At the same time, under the closer coordination of regulatory policies, a new regulatory system is about to emerge. In this context, monetary policy will be able to focus more and more on inflation, asset prices and other common goals, and the monetary policy with less and less worries will play a more resolute role in controlling overheating.