Analysis on the development trend of virtual currency
Publish: 2021-05-09 17:17:50
1. bitcoin is different from the previous currency, it completely relies on the Internet to create and trade; Bitcoin's unique technical attributes lead to its economic and cultural attributes beyond the present currency. Bitcoin is a kind of electronic currency proced by open-source P2P software. Compared with the paper currency in circulation, the biggest feature of bitcoin is decentralization and global circulation in the network world, followed by high security and high confidentiality. These technical attributes further extend to the economic attributes of no inflation, no freezing, and no man-made supply; In terms of culture, bitcoin is popular among anarchists and liberals. The advantages of bitcoin are artificially exaggerated, and its anti inflation and anti inflation functions cannot stand up to scrutiny. In the long run, the prospect of bit is hard to match that of gold. In the most optimistic case, it will become a means of payment in some areas; But in the short and medium term, bit still has room for speculation and imagination. In addition, the use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
1. The advantages of bitcoin are exaggerated: About decentralization, no transaction costs and anti inflation
it is true that bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over interpreted. First of all, bitcoin is a kind of decentralized currency, which will not have the same risk of central bank controlling money supply and affecting market value as paper money; Bitcoin is mainly held in the hands of large investors, and the market depth is not enough. At present, the trading behavior of large investors is also very easy to affect the price of bitcoin. Even if the attribute of decentralization is regarded as the advantage of bitcoin when it is fully mature, then the prerequisite of holding decentralization should be added. In addition, there are great differences between centralized and decentralized online payment systems in the degree and type of financial risks they are exposed to
secondly, the low transaction cost of bitcoin is not without transaction cost. On the contrary, e to the increasing difficulty of bitcoin mining and the further stability of currency value, the dependence of relevant transaction platforms on transaction cost will increase, which will certainly increase the transaction cost. Finally, the confidentiality of the bitcoin transaction needs to be discussed. The principle of the bitcoin transaction makes all the processes of each bitcoin transaction stored in each machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, they can find all the transactions down and up through these data
compared with other advantages, anti inflation or anti inflation is the most publicized advantage. Although its supply is stable and the upper limit of supply is locked according to its algorithm, unless the whole world is unified and all countries use bits as currency, it can not prevent the over issuance of money only as a means of payment or a storage of value, just as the current existence of gold can not constrain the growth of each country's currency. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (such as the network), then global or some countries' inflation will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the use of bits to prevent inflation is basically untenable, or has a strong premise. As for anti inflation, that is to say, it has the function of value storage, it needs to have the property similar to gold. However, from the reality, bit's essential property and prospect are still hard to match gold. See below for details
2. Bitcoin's future positioning is too high
the expectation of bitcoin's future in the market generally compares it with gold and US dollar, which is relatively high. The recognition of gold not only lies in its natural physical properties, but also in its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). In theory, bitcoin as an electronic currency does not have the unique and exclusive status, and it is more difficult to become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not appropriate to expect too much bit. As an electronic currency, bit has the first mover advantage. If it can be guaranteed in terms of security, its most optimistic prospect will be as a means of payment in local areas
3. Speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of bitcoin in this round
under the credit currency system, people's lack of confidence in the currencies of various countries and pessimistic economic prospects are the general environment for the rise of bitcoin in this round. The speculation of the major dealers in the market and the derivatives market of bitcoin, together with the speculative psychology of the participants, further accelerated its rise. Btcchina's investment of US $5 million and the announcement of Ben's position are the main driving factors for the recent surge
however, a lot of big players start to enter the market and buy a lot, which not only drives the bit price up to a high level, but also increases the market risk. Chamath, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on bitcoin and plans to spend another $10 million. Bitcoin investment trust also exceeded its target within four weeks, raising $15 million. These people's investments not only make bitcoin further rise, but also concentrate on the holding of bitcoin, which strengthens the influence of indivials and institutions on the price of bitcoin and increases the market risk
4. There is still strong room for speculation in the medium and short term
although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the prospect of bit, it is likely that bit will still have strong room for speculation in such a short and medium term period of time as one year. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the creators of bitcoin advocate that the generation of bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, which is quite different from the credit currencies of various countries. We expect that the monetary policies of major countries will be divided next year. With the release of economic risks and the heavy damage to traditional asset markets, bitcoin will have better room for speculation and imagination< The use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
the U.S. government seized the drug trading website "Silk Road" at the beginning of last month. A crowdfunding network called "assassination market" even marked the sale of murderers with bitcoin price. The founder of the assassin market, under the pseudonym of kuwabatake Sanjuro, is an extreme anarchist. Both prism gate incident and the use of bitcoin in relevant sensitive fields highlight the increasingly prominent position of information field in national security. The Third Plenary Session proposed the establishment of the national security committee, which will play an important role in China's security strategy and expand from traditional national defense, stability maintenance / urban security to information security and other emerging areas
1. The advantages of bitcoin are exaggerated: About decentralization, no transaction costs and anti inflation
it is true that bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over interpreted. First of all, bitcoin is a kind of decentralized currency, which will not have the same risk of central bank controlling money supply and affecting market value as paper money; Bitcoin is mainly held in the hands of large investors, and the market depth is not enough. At present, the trading behavior of large investors is also very easy to affect the price of bitcoin. Even if the attribute of decentralization is regarded as the advantage of bitcoin when it is fully mature, then the prerequisite of holding decentralization should be added. In addition, there are great differences between centralized and decentralized online payment systems in the degree and type of financial risks they are exposed to
secondly, the low transaction cost of bitcoin is not without transaction cost. On the contrary, e to the increasing difficulty of bitcoin mining and the further stability of currency value, the dependence of relevant transaction platforms on transaction cost will increase, which will certainly increase the transaction cost. Finally, the confidentiality of the bitcoin transaction needs to be discussed. The principle of the bitcoin transaction makes all the processes of each bitcoin transaction stored in each machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, they can find all the transactions down and up through these data
compared with other advantages, anti inflation or anti inflation is the most publicized advantage. Although its supply is stable and the upper limit of supply is locked according to its algorithm, unless the whole world is unified and all countries use bits as currency, it can not prevent the over issuance of money only as a means of payment or a storage of value, just as the current existence of gold can not constrain the growth of each country's currency. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (such as the network), then global or some countries' inflation will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the use of bits to prevent inflation is basically untenable, or has a strong premise. As for anti inflation, that is to say, it has the function of value storage, it needs to have the property similar to gold. However, from the reality, bit's essential property and prospect are still hard to match gold. See below for details
2. Bitcoin's future positioning is too high
the expectation of bitcoin's future in the market generally compares it with gold and US dollar, which is relatively high. The recognition of gold not only lies in its natural physical properties, but also in its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). In theory, bitcoin as an electronic currency does not have the unique and exclusive status, and it is more difficult to become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not appropriate to expect too much bit. As an electronic currency, bit has the first mover advantage. If it can be guaranteed in terms of security, its most optimistic prospect will be as a means of payment in local areas
3. Speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of bitcoin in this round
under the credit currency system, people's lack of confidence in the currencies of various countries and pessimistic economic prospects are the general environment for the rise of bitcoin in this round. The speculation of the major dealers in the market and the derivatives market of bitcoin, together with the speculative psychology of the participants, further accelerated its rise. Btcchina's investment of US $5 million and the announcement of Ben's position are the main driving factors for the recent surge
however, a lot of big players start to enter the market and buy a lot, which not only drives the bit price up to a high level, but also increases the market risk. Chamath, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on bitcoin and plans to spend another $10 million. Bitcoin investment trust also exceeded its target within four weeks, raising $15 million. These people's investments not only make bitcoin further rise, but also concentrate on the holding of bitcoin, which strengthens the influence of indivials and institutions on the price of bitcoin and increases the market risk
4. There is still strong room for speculation in the medium and short term
although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the prospect of bit, it is likely that bit will still have strong room for speculation in such a short and medium term period of time as one year. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the creators of bitcoin advocate that the generation of bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, which is quite different from the credit currencies of various countries. We expect that the monetary policies of major countries will be divided next year. With the release of economic risks and the heavy damage to traditional asset markets, bitcoin will have better room for speculation and imagination< The use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
the U.S. government seized the drug trading website "Silk Road" at the beginning of last month. A crowdfunding network called "assassination market" even marked the sale of murderers with bitcoin price. The founder of the assassin market, under the pseudonym of kuwabatake Sanjuro, is an extreme anarchist. Both prism gate incident and the use of bitcoin in relevant sensitive fields highlight the increasingly prominent position of information field in national security. The Third Plenary Session proposed the establishment of the national security committee, which will play an important role in China's security strategy and expand from traditional national defense, stability maintenance / urban security to information security and other emerging areas
2. After bitcoin craze, where should virtual digital currency go? According to the prospective instry research institute, the future development trend of the instry mainly includes the following points:
1. virtual currency may continue to develop for a long time. Due to the high security of virtual currency, it can't be issued at will, and Chinese and foreign people can't identify the user's identity information in the transaction process, a large number of people have a crazy pursuit of virtual currency
2. Virtual currency may be involved more widely in the future. As long as someone recognizes and uses virtual currency, the existence of virtual currency has value
virtual currency has been developing so far, prosperity and bubbles, wealth and dreams, questioning and supervision are all on the way. Investment is risky, so we should be cautious. At present, such playing methods as bitcoin have not been approved by the regulatory authorities. It is suggested that ordinary investors should participate in the game within their ability.
1. virtual currency may continue to develop for a long time. Due to the high security of virtual currency, it can't be issued at will, and Chinese and foreign people can't identify the user's identity information in the transaction process, a large number of people have a crazy pursuit of virtual currency
2. Virtual currency may be involved more widely in the future. As long as someone recognizes and uses virtual currency, the existence of virtual currency has value
virtual currency has been developing so far, prosperity and bubbles, wealth and dreams, questioning and supervision are all on the way. Investment is risky, so we should be cautious. At present, such playing methods as bitcoin have not been approved by the regulatory authorities. It is suggested that ordinary investors should participate in the game within their ability.
3. In short, bitcoin is a kind of virtual currency, which does not rely on any monetary institutions to issue, but relies on a specific algorithm, generated through a large number of calculations. After the bitcoin address is bound with the bank card, you can buy bitcoin with RMB recharge. There is a K-line chart, and the price changes in real time. Similar to stocks, you can buy and sell bitcoin at any time
after this madness, where should virtual currency go? According to the analysts of foresight Instry Research Institute, the future development trend of the instry mainly includes the following points:
1. Virtual currency may continue to develop for a long time. Due to the high security of virtual currency, it can't be issued at will, and Chinese and foreign people can't identify the user's identity information in the transaction process, a large number of people have a crazy pursuit of virtual currency
2. Virtual currency may be involved more widely in the future. As long as someone recognizes and uses virtual currency, the existence of virtual currency has value
virtual currency has been developing so far, prosperity and bubbles, wealth and dreams, questioning and supervision are all on the way. Investment is risky, so we should be cautious. At present, such playing methods as bitcoin have not been approved by the regulatory authorities. It is suggested that ordinary investors should participate in the game within their ability.
after this madness, where should virtual currency go? According to the analysts of foresight Instry Research Institute, the future development trend of the instry mainly includes the following points:
1. Virtual currency may continue to develop for a long time. Due to the high security of virtual currency, it can't be issued at will, and Chinese and foreign people can't identify the user's identity information in the transaction process, a large number of people have a crazy pursuit of virtual currency
2. Virtual currency may be involved more widely in the future. As long as someone recognizes and uses virtual currency, the existence of virtual currency has value
virtual currency has been developing so far, prosperity and bubbles, wealth and dreams, questioning and supervision are all on the way. Investment is risky, so we should be cautious. At present, such playing methods as bitcoin have not been approved by the regulatory authorities. It is suggested that ordinary investors should participate in the game within their ability.
4. Here's bitcoin
bitcoin price has been cut by the waist
how to implement blockchain application is still the main problem. In addition to bitcoin, the large-scale application of blockchain in other scenarios has not yet reached the commercial stage. Looking back to the second half of 2017, the price of bitcoin almost reached a new high every day, and finally reached the peak in the South Korean exchange with the highest premium in the world - about 140000 yuan per piece. On June 3, 2018, as of press time, coinbase bitcoin trading platform quoted 49688 yuan, and the price of bitcoin has been cut. Since the beginning of this year, the price of bitcoin has rarely seen eye popping ups and downs, and the overall trend of monthly decline
bitcoin development status
according to the data of the in-depth analysis report on business model innovation and investment opportunities of the blockchain instry released by the foresight Instry Research Institute, bitcoin prices showed a downward trend in May, with the overall market value falling from US $157.3 billion at the beginning of the month to US $127.4 billion at the end of the month, a decrease of 19%; In addition, there are 444000 active addresses and 197000 transfers per day. From the trend point of view, the number of active addresses and daily transfers are positively correlated with the transaction price. In May, the overall trend is volatile, and the downward trend is very obvious
reasons for the steady decline of bitcoin in the past half year
how to understand the "steady decline" of bitcoin in the past half year? There are two main reasons: firstly, the most important reason is that institutional investors and speculators who have accumulated a large number of "profit" are cashing in their profits and leaving the market; Secondly, before the blockchain instry has no real application and profit model, the rise of bitcoin price can only be regarded as speculative speculation. In addition, it is an undeniable fact that the Central Bank of China has made a decisive move to close the bitcoin trading platform, which has achieved remarkable results in preventing bitcoin speculation
at present, the domestic bitcoin exchanges have basically moved to foreign countries, which has nothing to do with China. Investors operate on those platforms at their own risk
the current market is not very good. Only when the market is good, can investors find ways to participate in bitcoin investment. As the total market value of the coin circle is still small, with more blockchain applications, there is still potential in the future
over consumed blockchain
e to the "tepid" price of bitcoin, blockchain, as its underlying technology, has reached the level of "known to all women and children", and even surpassed bitcoin in recent years
recently, a series of related reports are suspected of making up for the number and full of hype, and blockchain has obviously been over consumed. In addition to bitcoin, the large-scale application of blockchain in other scenarios has not yet reached the commercial stage
with the graal deepening of the understanding of blockchain technology, domestic enterprises have laid out blockchain technology, platforms and applications, including Internet enterprises such as network, Tencent, Ali, Jingdong, Netease, major banks, financial enterprises such as Ping An of China and Huawei. In terms of application, China actively explores and promotes blockchain + applications in the form of alliance chain and private chain to help solve the pain points of related instries, improve efficiency and rece costs.
bitcoin price has been cut by the waist
how to implement blockchain application is still the main problem. In addition to bitcoin, the large-scale application of blockchain in other scenarios has not yet reached the commercial stage. Looking back to the second half of 2017, the price of bitcoin almost reached a new high every day, and finally reached the peak in the South Korean exchange with the highest premium in the world - about 140000 yuan per piece. On June 3, 2018, as of press time, coinbase bitcoin trading platform quoted 49688 yuan, and the price of bitcoin has been cut. Since the beginning of this year, the price of bitcoin has rarely seen eye popping ups and downs, and the overall trend of monthly decline
bitcoin development status
according to the data of the in-depth analysis report on business model innovation and investment opportunities of the blockchain instry released by the foresight Instry Research Institute, bitcoin prices showed a downward trend in May, with the overall market value falling from US $157.3 billion at the beginning of the month to US $127.4 billion at the end of the month, a decrease of 19%; In addition, there are 444000 active addresses and 197000 transfers per day. From the trend point of view, the number of active addresses and daily transfers are positively correlated with the transaction price. In May, the overall trend is volatile, and the downward trend is very obvious
reasons for the steady decline of bitcoin in the past half year
how to understand the "steady decline" of bitcoin in the past half year? There are two main reasons: firstly, the most important reason is that institutional investors and speculators who have accumulated a large number of "profit" are cashing in their profits and leaving the market; Secondly, before the blockchain instry has no real application and profit model, the rise of bitcoin price can only be regarded as speculative speculation. In addition, it is an undeniable fact that the Central Bank of China has made a decisive move to close the bitcoin trading platform, which has achieved remarkable results in preventing bitcoin speculation
at present, the domestic bitcoin exchanges have basically moved to foreign countries, which has nothing to do with China. Investors operate on those platforms at their own risk
the current market is not very good. Only when the market is good, can investors find ways to participate in bitcoin investment. As the total market value of the coin circle is still small, with more blockchain applications, there is still potential in the future
over consumed blockchain
e to the "tepid" price of bitcoin, blockchain, as its underlying technology, has reached the level of "known to all women and children", and even surpassed bitcoin in recent years
recently, a series of related reports are suspected of making up for the number and full of hype, and blockchain has obviously been over consumed. In addition to bitcoin, the large-scale application of blockchain in other scenarios has not yet reached the commercial stage
with the graal deepening of the understanding of blockchain technology, domestic enterprises have laid out blockchain technology, platforms and applications, including Internet enterprises such as network, Tencent, Ali, Jingdong, Netease, major banks, financial enterprises such as Ping An of China and Huawei. In terms of application, China actively explores and promotes blockchain + applications in the form of alliance chain and private chain to help solve the pain points of related instries, improve efficiency and rece costs.
5.
In my opinion, we can start with mainstream value currencies such as BTC now. Judging from the trend of BTC in the past year, it is basically at the bottom now. Even if it is possible to fall further, it will not fall too much. Ten years of history shows that BTC is certainly valuable, and BTC will definitely appreciate in the future. After all, it is the gold of the currency circle, which is rare and has the greatest consensus. The above is just a personal statement and does not constitute an investment proposal. Investment should be cautious! Finally, I declare that if you lose money by investing in virtual currency, I will not bear any legal responsibility
6. Bitcoin has soared by 26 million times since it was issued, and recently it has exceeded the $20000 mark. The soaring bitcoin has driven the overall rise of virtual currency. Blockchain is hot, and major consortia all over the world have also started. Countries are also legislating to confirm the value of virtual currency. Rec virtual currency is also in a state of rapid development.
7. Compared with other payment instruments, digital RMB has two advantages. One is the advantage of relying on the political authority; It's a technical advantage to take off the deal. It can replace cash in circulation, which will certainly speed up the process of cash
on the other hand, with the rapid development of mathematical economy, people generally pay attention to whether virtual currency will enter the popular payment and transaction scene.
on the other hand, with the rapid development of mathematical economy, people generally pay attention to whether virtual currency will enter the popular payment and transaction scene.
8. It's a development trend
the national economic depression is caused by many reasons, for example, the global economic growth is declining, and China's exports are hindered, because exports are one of the three carriages of China's economic development, so they are more affected; In 2008, the United States triggered the global economic crisis. In order to deal with the serious impact of the crisis on our country, China put 4 trillion into the market, which resisted the invasion of the global economic crisis on our country. But it also brought a negative impact, which led to a serious crisis of overproction in our country. The real estate instry was depressed, the manufacturing instry was depressed, and the instrial upgrading and transformation was unsuccessful
in this context, expanding domestic demand, professional upgrading and innovation are the only way out. Despite the global economic downturn, apple is the best example. Virtual currency as an innovative proct, although there are still many shortcomings, but the future is unlimited, may subvert all walks of life in our country
under the background that major countries in the world pay more and more attention to digital currency, domestic teacher Shaqian proposed the concept of currency business circle, but jewelry group applied digital currency to the circulation of jewelry instry. Take Fuyuan coin as an integral of jewelry instry.
the national economic depression is caused by many reasons, for example, the global economic growth is declining, and China's exports are hindered, because exports are one of the three carriages of China's economic development, so they are more affected; In 2008, the United States triggered the global economic crisis. In order to deal with the serious impact of the crisis on our country, China put 4 trillion into the market, which resisted the invasion of the global economic crisis on our country. But it also brought a negative impact, which led to a serious crisis of overproction in our country. The real estate instry was depressed, the manufacturing instry was depressed, and the instrial upgrading and transformation was unsuccessful
in this context, expanding domestic demand, professional upgrading and innovation are the only way out. Despite the global economic downturn, apple is the best example. Virtual currency as an innovative proct, although there are still many shortcomings, but the future is unlimited, may subvert all walks of life in our country
under the background that major countries in the world pay more and more attention to digital currency, domestic teacher Shaqian proposed the concept of currency business circle, but jewelry group applied digital currency to the circulation of jewelry instry. Take Fuyuan coin as an integral of jewelry instry.
9. The price of mining machines of four pieces of technology is regulated. According to the equipment and memory you choose, the price will be different.
10. The development of virtual currency can not give people great confidence, just as bitcoin has died 35 times, but it is still there; Similarly, BBT gold coin can not give you the confidence to succeed, it can only be said to help you take an important step on the road to success
if you don't work hard, you will be scolded by the boss. If you don't run a store well, the landlord won't let you pay less. If your enterprise's capital turnover is poor, the bank won't exempt you from the loan. What kind of road you choose, you have to bear what kind of result. If your life is very comfortable, enjoy the happy life, if your life is very down, no one will sympathize with you. I hope everyone can do crazy things with a normal attitude and make a decision that may change their fate.
if you don't work hard, you will be scolded by the boss. If you don't run a store well, the landlord won't let you pay less. If your enterprise's capital turnover is poor, the bank won't exempt you from the loan. What kind of road you choose, you have to bear what kind of result. If your life is very comfortable, enjoy the happy life, if your life is very down, no one will sympathize with you. I hope everyone can do crazy things with a normal attitude and make a decision that may change their fate.
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