Virtual currency overweight
Following the release of the risk warning in early January to prevent disguised ICO (token issuance and financing) activities, recently, the China Internet Finance Association once again prompted that investors should recognize the risks of overseas ICO and "virtual currency" trading platforms. Moreover, it is understood that China will take regulatory measures on the website of virtual currency overseas trading platform, and the regulation of virtual currency is still increasing
as the most representative virtual currency, the risks behind bitcoin actually exist in most virtual currencies. However, some people still think that this is a "tuyere" that can not be missed. In September last year, the people's Bank of China and other seven ministries and commissions took measures to require the virtual currency exchange to completely shut down all its trading activities in China. Since then, some people have turned to overseas platform websites to continue to participate in virtual currency trading. At the same time, some institutions or indivials in China are still organizing the so-called currency trading and OTC trading, with market makers, guarantors and other services. In essence, this is still a virtual currency trading place, which is obviously inconsistent with the current policies and regulations
for investors, cooling down bitcoin just gives them time to think coldly. As governments around the world pay more attention to the supervision of virtual currency, some overseas trading platforms have been restricted e to obvious compliance risks, and some may be banned by the host government. It seems that the beautiful "tuyere" may be a trap, but it can't be regarded as a right investment method just because some people have made a fortune through it. Investors still need to take the initiative to strengthen risk awareness, always keep rational, away from all kinds of illegal financial activities
for enterprises, any innovation should be based on legal compliance. Whether it's the realization of the value of the new currency or the application of the blockchain technology in the scene, some people may taste the benefits by relying on the hot concept alone, but more people will be broken. Those ideas that are just to attract attention and stir up the concept to make money will eventually be broken. Only by doing solid research, focusing on the main business or technology itself, and speaking with procts, can an enterprise achieve long-term development
must be strictly supervised
in the early days, it mainly used a card, such as hd7850, hd7870, hd7850, hd7870...... Later, n-card was optimized. Later, gtx1070 and gtx1060 joined the mining army. Now, even the price of Jingying gtx1060 3G is around 2000
that is to say, these virtual currencies raise the price of graphics cards to a virtual high, thus increasing the cost of upgrading the configuration for game players.
I think there are three reasons for bitcoin's continuous rise
I. imbalance between supply and demand
in terms of demand, the output of bitcoin is designed to be only 21 million pieces, and the output is halved every four years. More and more people want to own bitcoin, and the imbalance between supply and demand leads to the soaring price of bitcoin. In addition, the mining machine will be replaced in four years. With the annual electricity charge unchanged, the mining cost of bitcoin will be doubled, and the price of bitcoin will be higher than the mining cost for a long time
in 2020, the total money supply of eight developed economies, including the United States, China, Europe and Japan, will reach 14 trillion US dollars this year. In addition, the total amount of money in the world's 12 largest economies has exploded to $94.8 trillion. You know, this is an astronomical number. In 2016, the total global money supply was only $60 trillion
2020 can be said to be the year of global water release, but there is even worse news that a new round of global water release in 2021 is on the way. Recently, in order to stabilize the financial market, Europe and the United States have released a huge amount of water again. The European Central Bank has released another 500 billion euros, and the US $900 billion economic stimulus plan has been signed and implemented. According to the prediction of Morgan Stanley, a world-famous investment bank, in the next two years, the scale of money printing of the four major banks in the world, namely, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England, will be as high as US $5 trillion, and US $5 trillion in RMB will be US $32 trillion. In the past few decades, the total scale of water release of the four central banks will be US $25 trillion. Let's think about the volume of this wave of water release
at present, the US dollar is still the main reserve currency held by central banks, followed by the euro, the pound and the yen, he said. For a long time in the future, the US dollar will be the main reserve currency, and the "basket entry" of RMB will not challenge the status of US dollar as the main reserve currency<
radi said that the United States became the world's largest economy at the end of the 18th century, but it was not until the second world war that the US dollar became the world's major reserve currency. If history is the forerunner, it will take decades for RMB to become a major reserve currency< In line with the trend of RMB internationalization, the people's Bank of China has taken a series of reform measures in recent years, including opening the inter-bank bond market to foreign central banks, sovereign wealth funds and international financial institutions, further improving the RMB exchange rate middle price quotation, and removing the upper limit of deposit interest rate, radi said. All these measures are aimed at making the value of RMB more determined by market supply and demand and having a higher degree of freedom of use
he pointed out that China's reform measures will make it more feasible for RMB to join the SDR, and will have a huge potential impact on China's domestic economic reform and development. According to Xinhua news agency,
analysts of securities companies "feel the pulse" of RMB joining SDR,
foreign capital will not increase RMB assets on a large scale,
when RMB joins SDR, the market is most concerned about whether international institutions will increase the demand for RMB currency and RMB asset allocation< Hu Yufeng, a researcher at CITIC Securities, believes that the key to determining the attractiveness of RMB assets lies in the domestic economic situation. At present, China's fundamentals are not optimistic, coupled with the impact of the Federal Reserve's expectation of raising interest rates within the year, the attraction of RMB assets is limited, and the momentum of capital inflow in the short term is not strong. Comparing the trend of treasury bond yields between China and the United States, it is not difficult to find that with the strengthening of the U.S. economic recovery, the interest margin between treasury bond yields of China and the United States is graally narrowing. Under the condition of weak internal economic growth and strong external diversion attraction, it is expected that there will not be a large amount of funds flowing into the domestic capital market after RMB joining the SDR
Wang Han, an analyst at instrial securities, also said that the impact of joining SDR is more reflected in the level of confidence - it helps to enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets, but its contribution to the wide use of RMB may be limited. From the perspective of RMB internationalization, although the proportion of RMB in trade settlement has ranked the third in the world, it is still low compared with the US dollar and euro, and it has not entered the top five in cross-border payment. Therefore, RMB internationalization still has a long way to go, and joining SDR is just a new beginning
what will RMB bring to us after joining SDR
a can enhance the world's confidence in China's economy
RMB's accession to SDR is a win-win move for China and the world. For China, in the short term, it can enhance the world's confidence in RMB, China's financial market and China's economy, urge the official institutions of various countries to consider increasing the proportion of RMB in their reserve composition, and promote private institutional investors to hold more RMB assets, so as to expand the use of RMB in financial transactions
in the long run, joining the SDR will also help to accelerate the reform of China's financial market and make market factors play a greater role in the allocation of financial resources, which can be embodied in the RMB exchange rate, interest rate liberalization, capital account opening, etc., which will be concive to China's economic rebalancing
the accession of RMB will also make the SDR basket more objectively reflect the status and importance of major currencies in the world trade and financial system. Under the current international monetary system, the US dollar is still dominant and lacks flexibility. RMB joining SDR will increase the weight of RMB assets in global investment allocation
B will RMB depreciate after entering the basket
If a currency "enters the basket" SDR, it will officially become the international official reserve currency, which will urge the official institutions of various countries to consider increasing the proportion of the currency reserve assets in their reserve composition, and promote private institutional investors to hold more of the currency assets<
Moody's, an international rating agency, recently released a report that the "basket entry" SDR of RMB will encourage central banks to invest in RMB assets, which is expected to stabilize the demand for RMB and partially offset the impact of capital outflow in the uncertain market environment< In October, Yi Gang, vice president of the people's Bank of China, said at the annual meetings of the IMF and the world bank that the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism will continue to move towards the direction of marketization in the future, and the RMB exchange rate will be more flexible, floating in both directions and basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level
C it is more convenient to invest in stocks and real estate abroad
RMB's participation in SDR can increase the confidence of the international market in RMB, make the RMB in the hands of Chinese people stronger, and also help enterprises to cross-border investment, purchase resources, technology and services overseas
from the perspective of personal consumption, as more and more countries recognize RMB and are willing to accept RMB, the exchange between RMB and foreign currency will be more convenient in the future, and frequent use of RMB in overseas tourism and shopping is not out of reach
the entry of RMB into SDR will also help to broaden the overseas investment channels of domestic residents. In the future, it will be more convenient for Chinese people to invest in real estate, stocks and bonds abroad. Foreign investors can also participate more in China's domestic stocks, funds, treasury bonds, P2P and other investment and financing.
Following the release of the risk warning in early January to prevent disguised ICO (token issuance and financing) activities, recently, the China Internet Finance Association once again prompted that investors should recognize the risks of overseas ICO and "virtual currency" trading platforms. Moreover, it is understood that China will take regulatory measures on the website of virtual currency overseas trading platform, and the regulation of virtual currency is still increasing
On the one hand, there are objective reasons for the popularity of bitcoin. Since the first block of bitcoin was g up by Nakamoto in 2009, bitcoin has graally come into the public view and ushered in its "spring" in 2017. The characteristics of difficult and limited access make bitcoin have exchange value among the participants, and this scarcity also makes it a favorite object for special groups and capital. However, e to the constraints of policy regulation, technological innovation and other uncertain factors, bitcoin prices have plummeted, which is very common. There have been periods when bitcoin prices soared by more than $10000, and there have been periods when bitcoin lost more than a quarter of its market value in one day. It is these characteristics that make bitcoin the "new favorite" of speculators1. Different definitions
foreign exchange swap is that both parties agree to exchange a certain amount of currency B with currency a, and exchange the same amount of currency a with currency B at the agreed price on the agreed date in the future
currency swap (also known as currency swap) refers to the exchange of two debt funds with the same amount, the same term and the same method of calculating interest rate, but different currencies, as well as the exchange of different interest amounts
The exchange rate of the initial swap is calculated by the spot exchange rate. The purpose of currency swap is to rece the financing cost and prevent the loss caused by the risk of exchange rate changes. The conditions of currency swap are the same as that of interest rate swap, including the existence of quality difference and the opposite willingness to raise funds. In addition, it also includes the prevention of exchange rate risk The amount of compensation depends on the difference of interest rates between the two currencies. The way of compensation can be reflected not only by the exchange price at maturity, but also by the form of separate interest margin payment Foreign exchange swap can be used for the early delivery of forward settlement and sale of foreign exchange business, which solves the contradiction that forward settlement and sale of foreign exchange business can not be delivered in advance and makes the customer's capital turnover more flexiblecurrency swap is a commonly used debt hedging tool, which is mainly used to control the medium and long-term exchange rate risk, to convert one kind of foreign exchange denominated debt or asset into another kind of foreign exchange denominated debt or asset, so as to avoid the exchange rate risk and rece the cost
the depreciation of RMB will impact asset prices, leading to the weakening of financial, real estate and other related sectors, which will drag down the overall market. In addition, under the background of the Fed's interest rate increase, once the RMB depreciation expectation is formed, it will lead to hot money outflow, which is not concive to the strength of a shares
2. In the long run, devaluation increases the weight of stable growth, and the economy has a bottom.
in the past two years, the RMB exchange rate is not flexible enough, which leads to the RMB real effective exchange rate rising with the US dollar. In the same period, the euro, yen, and BRICs currencies have all depreciated by more than 10%, which aggravates the pressure of stable growth. The devaluation of the RMB exchange rate will help to rece the pressure on exports and also help the recovery of the economy. Therefore, the real economy will graally improve in the third quarter
3. The most beneficial textile toys
this is a very important point of the impact of RMB depreciation on the stock market. China is a big exporter, and the simplest reason is that RMB depreciation is bad for foreign trade exports
4. The devaluation of RMB will have a certain negative impact on aviation, paper and other instries with large US dollar debt, and the rebound of oil price will also put pressure on aviation stocks; May consider low intervention in aviation stocks, as the instry's performance growth this year is good
5. Real estate stocks are under pressure
the depreciation of RMB will lead to the shrinkage of RMB assets. At the same time, the depreciation of the RMB has slowed down the speed of capital inflow, which has also brought pressure on real estate prices. However, as China's capital account has not been fully opened, the impact of exchange rate depreciation on the capital market and real estate market is still controllable.