Virtual currency balance of payments
Publish: 2021-03-30 23:56:22
1.
The balance of payments surplus shows that the export is greater than the import, foreigners buy a large number of goods in the country, need to pay more money in the country, the demand for the country's currency in the international market is large, causing the currency appreciation of the country
Relevant introction:the balance of payments surplus indicates that there is a net inflow of current account and capital account. Take trade in goods for example, the current account surplus shows that the country's exports are greater than imports. Foreign imports of domestic goods need to be paid in domestic currency rather than foreign currency, which will lead to an increase in the demand for domestic currency
extended data
the balance of payments surplus generated by trade items reflects the enhancement of a country's international reserves or external payment capacity; The balance of payments surplus generated by the capital account reflects the large inflow of capital
The huge balance of payments surplus also has adverse economic effects, mainly in the following aspects: excessive foreign exchange reserves will lead to idle funds and waste, which is not concive to the development of domestic economy; When the exchange rate of reserve currency falls, foreign exchange reserves will suffer losses; With the increase of a country's foreign exchange reserves, the issue of local currency will inevitably increase, resulting in potential inflationary pressurein the case of high capital mobility, the balance of payments surplus strengthens the effect of positive fiscal policy to stimulate aggregate demand and promotes the rapid development of the national economy. Fourth, the balance of payments surplus is concive to the implementation of loose monetary policy
2. The impact of RMB appreciation on balance of payments (I) the impact on international economy (I) the impact on international trade (II)
in theory, the appreciation of a country's currency will have the effect of "limiting exports and rewarding imports" on its imports and exports. Therefore, for China, after RMB appreciation, imports will tend to increase, while exports will decrease, which is concive to China's balance of international payments and alleviates the pressure of rapidly growing foreign exchange reserves. For the US and European markets, as China's procts are exported to the US and European markets, the appreciation of RMB will rece China's exports to the above-mentioned countries and regions, which is concive to the improvement of the latter, especially the US current account deficit, thus recing the trade friction between China and the United States and between China and Europe. For Asian countries, as China's imports mainly come from Asian countries, especially Japan and ASEAN, the appreciation of RMB will increase China's imports from rising countries and regions. At the same time, the procts exported by Asian countries and China to the U.S. and European markets have strong substitutability. The appreciation of RMB leads to the price rise of China's exports, which in turn makes the exports of Asian countries with strong substitutability to the U.S. and Europe expand, thus driving the growth of various Asian economies
2. The impact on international capital flow
in October last year, the flow of international capital changed significantly from crude oil futures market to Asia, gambling heavily on RMB appreciation. RMB appreciation of 2% obviously does not meet the expected range of the market, especially the hot money. Although the possibility of RMB revaluation in the short term is not great, the subsequent appreciation of RMB is almost an inevitable trend, which may lead to changes in the direction of international hot money flow. Specifically, some funds may withdraw from China in the near future, but more funds may flow into China later. It is urgent to continue to implement capital control, especially to strengthen the supervision of capital inflow
3. Direct impact on the value of each country's currency
on the day of RMB appreciation, various Asian currencies generally rose, among which the yen rose 2.4% against the US dollar, the Singapore dollar rose 2.1%, and the US dollar also hit a new low of 7.7652 against the Hong Kong dollar. More importantly, the Central Bank of Malaysia announced that it would abandon the fixed exchange rate system pegged to the US dollar and adopt a managed floating exchange rate system pegged to a basket of currencies. This shows that the linkage among Asian currencies is becoming stronger and stronger
influenced by the appreciation of RMB, European currencies also rose on that day, but the range was relatively small. Among them, the euro appreciated by 0.17%, the pound by 0.75% and the Swiss Franc by 0.03%
however, e to the small appreciation of RMB, after digesting this impact, the currencies subsequently experienced a correction
(2) impact on domestic economy
1. Impact on different instries in China
as mentioned above, the appreciation of RMB will make the price of China's export procts rise, rece its price competitive advantage, and then rece exports. Among export enterprises, resource-based instries will suffer more. At the same time, it will be good for domestic import enterprises. The appreciation of RMB will lower the price of imported procts, which is concive to the expansion of imports. In particular, the fall in the import price of energy (mainly oil) and resources (iron ore, copper, nickel, etc.) will temporarily ease the energy and resources bottleneck restricting China's economic development
2. The impact on domestic monetary policy
(1) the impact on RMB interest rate. After the appreciation of RMB, the prices of imported procts will fall, which will drive the domestic prices down slightly. On the other hand, the decrease of export caused by RMB appreciation will increase the supply of domestic procts, and the increase of supply will also lead to the decline of domestic prices. The combined effect of the above factors is that domestic prices are falling and the pressure of RMB interest rate rise is alleviated, but the possibility of deflation must also be prevented
(2) the impact on money supply
as the appreciation rate of RMB is only 2%, it will only cause the growth rate of China's foreign exchange reserves to decline in the short term, but it is difficult to make an immediate absolute decline, and the resulting foreign exchange account is also difficult to rece significantly. However, the expectation of further appreciation of RMB will lead to a substantial increase in domestic foreign exchange settlement in the short term, which will make the domestic financial market more abundant, which will increase the pressure on the people's Bank of China to withdraw currency
4. Impact on domestic stock market. From the international experience, the sharp appreciation of the currency with strong appreciation expectations will lead to a large-scale withdrawal of hot money, and then lead to the decline of the domestic stock market. However, e to the small range of RMB appreciation, there are still expectations of further appreciation. Moreover, China's stock market has been in the doldrums recently, and the hot money flowing into China has hardly entered the stock market, but mostly invested in the real estate market. Therefore, after RMB appreciation, even if some hot money withdraws, the negative effect on China's stock market is limited. However, after the appreciation of RMB, China's steel, oil, petrochemical and tourism stocks will rise sharply, which will be good for the domestic stock market. It must be pointed out that the current predicament of China's stock market and the serious lack of investor confidence will greatly offset its positive effect
5. The impact on the domestic banking instry
as mentioned above, the direct impact of RMB appreciation of 2% will be a sharp increase in the amount of foreign exchange settlement, which will rece the amount of domestic and foreign currency funds. This will have an impact on the foreign currency business of domestic commercial banks, and lead to intensified competition among commercial banks in foreign currency business
for the RMB business, the substantial increase in the amount of foreign exchange settlement will be more concive to the development of liability business of commercial banks. However, e to the more abundant capital of RMB, the yield of domestic bonds will continue to decline, which makes the profit margin of commercial banks continue to narrow
finally, it must be pointed out that e to the small range of RMB appreciation, the impact on domestic and international economy and finance may not be as strong as people expected, and the final effect of RMB appreciation remains to be seen e to the complexity of China's economy.
in theory, the appreciation of a country's currency will have the effect of "limiting exports and rewarding imports" on its imports and exports. Therefore, for China, after RMB appreciation, imports will tend to increase, while exports will decrease, which is concive to China's balance of international payments and alleviates the pressure of rapidly growing foreign exchange reserves. For the US and European markets, as China's procts are exported to the US and European markets, the appreciation of RMB will rece China's exports to the above-mentioned countries and regions, which is concive to the improvement of the latter, especially the US current account deficit, thus recing the trade friction between China and the United States and between China and Europe. For Asian countries, as China's imports mainly come from Asian countries, especially Japan and ASEAN, the appreciation of RMB will increase China's imports from rising countries and regions. At the same time, the procts exported by Asian countries and China to the U.S. and European markets have strong substitutability. The appreciation of RMB leads to the price rise of China's exports, which in turn makes the exports of Asian countries with strong substitutability to the U.S. and Europe expand, thus driving the growth of various Asian economies
2. The impact on international capital flow
in October last year, the flow of international capital changed significantly from crude oil futures market to Asia, gambling heavily on RMB appreciation. RMB appreciation of 2% obviously does not meet the expected range of the market, especially the hot money. Although the possibility of RMB revaluation in the short term is not great, the subsequent appreciation of RMB is almost an inevitable trend, which may lead to changes in the direction of international hot money flow. Specifically, some funds may withdraw from China in the near future, but more funds may flow into China later. It is urgent to continue to implement capital control, especially to strengthen the supervision of capital inflow
3. Direct impact on the value of each country's currency
on the day of RMB appreciation, various Asian currencies generally rose, among which the yen rose 2.4% against the US dollar, the Singapore dollar rose 2.1%, and the US dollar also hit a new low of 7.7652 against the Hong Kong dollar. More importantly, the Central Bank of Malaysia announced that it would abandon the fixed exchange rate system pegged to the US dollar and adopt a managed floating exchange rate system pegged to a basket of currencies. This shows that the linkage among Asian currencies is becoming stronger and stronger
influenced by the appreciation of RMB, European currencies also rose on that day, but the range was relatively small. Among them, the euro appreciated by 0.17%, the pound by 0.75% and the Swiss Franc by 0.03%
however, e to the small appreciation of RMB, after digesting this impact, the currencies subsequently experienced a correction
(2) impact on domestic economy
1. Impact on different instries in China
as mentioned above, the appreciation of RMB will make the price of China's export procts rise, rece its price competitive advantage, and then rece exports. Among export enterprises, resource-based instries will suffer more. At the same time, it will be good for domestic import enterprises. The appreciation of RMB will lower the price of imported procts, which is concive to the expansion of imports. In particular, the fall in the import price of energy (mainly oil) and resources (iron ore, copper, nickel, etc.) will temporarily ease the energy and resources bottleneck restricting China's economic development
2. The impact on domestic monetary policy
(1) the impact on RMB interest rate. After the appreciation of RMB, the prices of imported procts will fall, which will drive the domestic prices down slightly. On the other hand, the decrease of export caused by RMB appreciation will increase the supply of domestic procts, and the increase of supply will also lead to the decline of domestic prices. The combined effect of the above factors is that domestic prices are falling and the pressure of RMB interest rate rise is alleviated, but the possibility of deflation must also be prevented
(2) the impact on money supply
as the appreciation rate of RMB is only 2%, it will only cause the growth rate of China's foreign exchange reserves to decline in the short term, but it is difficult to make an immediate absolute decline, and the resulting foreign exchange account is also difficult to rece significantly. However, the expectation of further appreciation of RMB will lead to a substantial increase in domestic foreign exchange settlement in the short term, which will make the domestic financial market more abundant, which will increase the pressure on the people's Bank of China to withdraw currency
4. Impact on domestic stock market. From the international experience, the sharp appreciation of the currency with strong appreciation expectations will lead to a large-scale withdrawal of hot money, and then lead to the decline of the domestic stock market. However, e to the small range of RMB appreciation, there are still expectations of further appreciation. Moreover, China's stock market has been in the doldrums recently, and the hot money flowing into China has hardly entered the stock market, but mostly invested in the real estate market. Therefore, after RMB appreciation, even if some hot money withdraws, the negative effect on China's stock market is limited. However, after the appreciation of RMB, China's steel, oil, petrochemical and tourism stocks will rise sharply, which will be good for the domestic stock market. It must be pointed out that the current predicament of China's stock market and the serious lack of investor confidence will greatly offset its positive effect
5. The impact on the domestic banking instry
as mentioned above, the direct impact of RMB appreciation of 2% will be a sharp increase in the amount of foreign exchange settlement, which will rece the amount of domestic and foreign currency funds. This will have an impact on the foreign currency business of domestic commercial banks, and lead to intensified competition among commercial banks in foreign currency business
for the RMB business, the substantial increase in the amount of foreign exchange settlement will be more concive to the development of liability business of commercial banks. However, e to the more abundant capital of RMB, the yield of domestic bonds will continue to decline, which makes the profit margin of commercial banks continue to narrow
finally, it must be pointed out that e to the small range of RMB appreciation, the impact on domestic and international economy and finance may not be as strong as people expected, and the final effect of RMB appreciation remains to be seen e to the complexity of China's economy.
3. Balance of payments: the systematic record and synthesis of all economic transactions between residents and non residents of an economic entity in a certain period of time. Balance of payments is a flow concept, which reflects all transactions recorded in currency and records transactions between residents and non residents of a country
optimal currency area: refers to a region composed of several countries or regions e to the free flow of proction factors. The implementation of a fixed exchange rate system or a single currency system in the region is concive to the establishment of a regulatory mechanism between the region and other regions
Triffin's dilemma: under the Bretton Woods system, the dollar, as the only reserve currency, has insurmountable inherent defects: the balance of payments surplus of the United States, while the supply of international reserve assets is insufficient; If the U.S. balance of payments deficit, the credit of the U.S. dollar is difficult to maintain
Marshall Lerner condition: when the national income of a country remains unchanged, the condition that depreciation can improve the trade balance is that the sum of demand elasticity of import and export is greater than 1
exchange rate system: refers to a series of arrangements or regulations made by a country's monetary authorities on the determination of the exchange rate level of its currency and the way of exchange rate changes. Including: the principle and basis of determining currency exchange rate; Methods of maintaining and adjusting the exchange rate; Laws, systems and policies governing exchange rates; Determine the mechanism for maintaining and managing the exchange rate
current account: refers to the account that records the international flow of actual resources. It includes the following items: goods, services, revenue and current transfers
capital and financial account: an account that records the international flow of asset ownership. It includes capital account and financial account
International Investment Position: the concept of reflecting a country's assets and liabilities to the rest of the world at a certain point in time is the international investment position, and the net value of a country's external assets and liabilities is the net international investment position
Mead conflict: under the fixed exchange rate system, a country has only one policy tool to change its expenditure, which can not achieve the two economic goals of internal and external balance at the same time
forward foreign exchange transaction: a kind of foreign exchange transaction, in which both parties sign a transaction contract in advance, determine the transaction time, price, exchange rate and currency, and deliver at maturity. The use of this transaction can also be hedging, but also speculation
Law of one price: under the condition of free trade, the price of the same commodity in the same currency all over the world is the same
currency crisis: generalized currency crisis, also known as exchange rate crisis, refers to a country's partner exchange rate changes significantly in the short term; In a narrow sense, currency crisis refers to the collapse of the fixed exchange rate system e to the large-scale replacement of assets in countries with fixed exchange rate system
absolute purchasing power parity theory: at a certain point in time, the ratio of the purchasing power (or price level) of the two countries' currencies determines the ratio of currency exchange between the two countries; It is equal to the reciprocal ratio of the price levels of the two countries
balance of balance of payments: it refers to the balance of capital transfer, direct investment, securities investment and other accounts between the current account and the capital and financial account, that is, the balance after excluding the official reserve account in the account
currency substitution: in the process of economic development, when China loses confidence in the stability of its currency value or the return rate of its currency assets is relatively low, foreign currency plays a role in all or part of its functions
European money market: it refers to the market in which non residents borrow and deposit their currency (freely convertible) outside the border of the currency issuing country through banks, also known as offshore money market
Mundell's Law: under the fixed exchange rate system, the policy matching principle of allocating internal equilibrium target to fiscal policy and external equilibrium target to monetary policy
J-shaped curve effect: when a country devalues, it will make the trade situation worsen rather than improve at first. Only after a period of time can the deterioration of the trade balance be controlled and tend to improve, and finally the trade balance situation will be improved. This process is described by a curve, similar to the capital J, which refers to the time lag effect of depreciation on the improvement of trade balance
expenditure conversion policy: refers to exchange rate policy and direct control policy. Exchange rate policy refers to the purpose of adjusting the balance of payments by adjusting the exchange rate so as to adjust the comparative relationship between imports and exports. Direct control policy refers to the policy that the government balances the balance of payments through administrative orders (such as quantitative control and price control). The two policies did not change the level of aggregate demand, but only changed the direction of expenditure
Special Drawing Right: a Book Asset allocated by IMF to member states according to their share, which can be used to repay the balance of payments deficit between IMF and member governments
Arbitrage: refers to the use of different foreign exchange markets, different types of currencies, different delivery periods of certain currencies in the exchange rate differences, to buy at a low price and sell at a high price of foreign exchange trading, to earn exchange differences. The types of arbitrage include direct, indirect and time arbitrage.
optimal currency area: refers to a region composed of several countries or regions e to the free flow of proction factors. The implementation of a fixed exchange rate system or a single currency system in the region is concive to the establishment of a regulatory mechanism between the region and other regions
Triffin's dilemma: under the Bretton Woods system, the dollar, as the only reserve currency, has insurmountable inherent defects: the balance of payments surplus of the United States, while the supply of international reserve assets is insufficient; If the U.S. balance of payments deficit, the credit of the U.S. dollar is difficult to maintain
Marshall Lerner condition: when the national income of a country remains unchanged, the condition that depreciation can improve the trade balance is that the sum of demand elasticity of import and export is greater than 1
exchange rate system: refers to a series of arrangements or regulations made by a country's monetary authorities on the determination of the exchange rate level of its currency and the way of exchange rate changes. Including: the principle and basis of determining currency exchange rate; Methods of maintaining and adjusting the exchange rate; Laws, systems and policies governing exchange rates; Determine the mechanism for maintaining and managing the exchange rate
current account: refers to the account that records the international flow of actual resources. It includes the following items: goods, services, revenue and current transfers
capital and financial account: an account that records the international flow of asset ownership. It includes capital account and financial account
International Investment Position: the concept of reflecting a country's assets and liabilities to the rest of the world at a certain point in time is the international investment position, and the net value of a country's external assets and liabilities is the net international investment position
Mead conflict: under the fixed exchange rate system, a country has only one policy tool to change its expenditure, which can not achieve the two economic goals of internal and external balance at the same time
forward foreign exchange transaction: a kind of foreign exchange transaction, in which both parties sign a transaction contract in advance, determine the transaction time, price, exchange rate and currency, and deliver at maturity. The use of this transaction can also be hedging, but also speculation
Law of one price: under the condition of free trade, the price of the same commodity in the same currency all over the world is the same
currency crisis: generalized currency crisis, also known as exchange rate crisis, refers to a country's partner exchange rate changes significantly in the short term; In a narrow sense, currency crisis refers to the collapse of the fixed exchange rate system e to the large-scale replacement of assets in countries with fixed exchange rate system
absolute purchasing power parity theory: at a certain point in time, the ratio of the purchasing power (or price level) of the two countries' currencies determines the ratio of currency exchange between the two countries; It is equal to the reciprocal ratio of the price levels of the two countries
balance of balance of payments: it refers to the balance of capital transfer, direct investment, securities investment and other accounts between the current account and the capital and financial account, that is, the balance after excluding the official reserve account in the account
currency substitution: in the process of economic development, when China loses confidence in the stability of its currency value or the return rate of its currency assets is relatively low, foreign currency plays a role in all or part of its functions
European money market: it refers to the market in which non residents borrow and deposit their currency (freely convertible) outside the border of the currency issuing country through banks, also known as offshore money market
Mundell's Law: under the fixed exchange rate system, the policy matching principle of allocating internal equilibrium target to fiscal policy and external equilibrium target to monetary policy
J-shaped curve effect: when a country devalues, it will make the trade situation worsen rather than improve at first. Only after a period of time can the deterioration of the trade balance be controlled and tend to improve, and finally the trade balance situation will be improved. This process is described by a curve, similar to the capital J, which refers to the time lag effect of depreciation on the improvement of trade balance
expenditure conversion policy: refers to exchange rate policy and direct control policy. Exchange rate policy refers to the purpose of adjusting the balance of payments by adjusting the exchange rate so as to adjust the comparative relationship between imports and exports. Direct control policy refers to the policy that the government balances the balance of payments through administrative orders (such as quantitative control and price control). The two policies did not change the level of aggregate demand, but only changed the direction of expenditure
Special Drawing Right: a Book Asset allocated by IMF to member states according to their share, which can be used to repay the balance of payments deficit between IMF and member governments
Arbitrage: refers to the use of different foreign exchange markets, different types of currencies, different delivery periods of certain currencies in the exchange rate differences, to buy at a low price and sell at a high price of foreign exchange trading, to earn exchange differences. The types of arbitrage include direct, indirect and time arbitrage.
4. There are two ways to increase foreign exchange reserves: first, current account transactions, such as foreign trade; second, capital account transactions, such as loans from abroad. The appreciation of RMB will affect foreign trade to a certain extent, recing exports and increasing imports. However, it needs a process. Only after the appreciation of RMB reaches a high level and goes through a period of time, can the foreign exchange reserves increase, Only in this way can the foreign exchange reserves caused by current account be completely reced. However, e to the people's expectation of appreciation, the influx of foreign hot money will further increase the foreign exchange reserves caused by capital account. Only when the negative effect of RMB (decrease of foreign exchange reserves) is greater than the positive effect, will the foreign exchange reserves decrease, which will take a period of time for RMB to continue to rise
5. Balance of payments: the systematic record and synthesis of all economic transactions between residents and non residents of an economic entity in a certain period of time. Balance of payments is a flow concept, which reflects all transactions recorded in currency and records transactions between residents and non residents of a country
optimal currency area: refers to a region composed of several countries or regions e to the free flow of proction factors. The implementation of a fixed exchange rate system or a single currency system in the region is concive to the establishment of a regulatory mechanism between the region and other regions
Triffin's dilemma: under the Bretton Woods system, the dollar, as the only reserve currency, has insurmountable inherent defects: the balance of payments surplus of the United States, while the supply of international reserve assets is insufficient; If the U.S. balance of payments deficit, the credit of the U.S. dollar is difficult to maintain
Marshall Lerner condition: when the national income of a country remains unchanged, the condition that depreciation can improve the trade balance is that the sum of demand elasticity of import and export is greater than 1
exchange rate system: refers to a series of arrangements or regulations made by a country's monetary authorities on the determination of the exchange rate level of its currency and the way of exchange rate changes. Including: the principle and basis of determining currency exchange rate; Methods of maintaining and adjusting the exchange rate; Laws, systems and policies governing exchange rates; Determine the mechanism for maintaining and managing the exchange rate
current account: refers to the account that records the international flow of actual resources. It includes the following items: goods, services, revenue and current transfers
capital and financial account: an account that records the international flow of asset ownership. It includes capital account and financial account
International Investment Position: the concept of reflecting a country's assets and liabilities to the rest of the world at a certain point in time is the international investment position, and the net value of a country's external assets and liabilities is the net international investment position
Mead conflict: under the fixed exchange rate system, a country has only one policy tool to change its expenditure, which can not achieve the two economic goals of internal and external balance at the same time
forward foreign exchange transaction: a kind of foreign exchange transaction, in which both parties sign a transaction contract in advance, determine the transaction time, price, exchange rate and currency, and deliver at maturity. The use of this transaction can also be hedging, but also speculation
Law of one price: under the condition of free trade, the price of the same commodity in the same currency all over the world is the same
currency crisis: generalized currency crisis, also known as exchange rate crisis, refers to a country's partner exchange rate changes significantly in the short term; In a narrow sense, currency crisis refers to the collapse of the fixed exchange rate system e to the large-scale replacement of assets in countries with fixed exchange rate system
absolute purchasing power parity theory: at a certain point in time, the ratio of the purchasing power (or price level) of the two countries' currencies determines the ratio of currency exchange between the two countries; It is equal to the reciprocal ratio of the price levels of the two countries
balance of balance of payments: it refers to the balance of capital transfer, direct investment, securities investment and other accounts between the current account and the capital and financial account, that is, the balance after excluding the official reserve account in the account
currency substitution: in the process of economic development, when China loses confidence in the stability of its currency value or the return rate of its currency assets is relatively low, foreign currency plays a role in all or part of its functions
European money market: it refers to the market in which non residents borrow and deposit their currency (freely convertible) outside the border of the currency issuing country through banks, also known as offshore money market
Mundell's Law: under the fixed exchange rate system, the policy matching principle of allocating internal equilibrium target to fiscal policy and external equilibrium target to monetary policy
J-shaped curve effect: when a country devalues, it will make the trade situation worsen rather than improve at first. Only after a period of time can the deterioration of the trade balance be controlled and tend to improve, and finally the trade balance situation will be improved. This process is described by a curve, similar to the capital J, which refers to the time lag effect of depreciation on the improvement of trade balance
expenditure conversion policy: refers to exchange rate policy and direct control policy. Exchange rate policy refers to the purpose of adjusting the balance of payments by adjusting the exchange rate so as to adjust the comparative relationship between imports and exports. Direct control policy refers to the policy that the government balances the balance of payments through administrative orders (such as quantitative control and price control). The two policies did not change the level of aggregate demand, but only changed the direction of expenditure
Special Drawing Right: a Book Asset allocated by IMF to member states according to their share, which can be used to repay the balance of payments deficit between IMF and member governments
Arbitrage: refers to the use of different foreign exchange markets, different types of currencies, different delivery periods of certain currencies in the exchange rate differences, to buy at a low price and sell at a high price of foreign exchange trading, to earn exchange differences. The types of arbitrage include direct, indirect and time arbitrage
the relationship with international trade is not clear.
optimal currency area: refers to a region composed of several countries or regions e to the free flow of proction factors. The implementation of a fixed exchange rate system or a single currency system in the region is concive to the establishment of a regulatory mechanism between the region and other regions
Triffin's dilemma: under the Bretton Woods system, the dollar, as the only reserve currency, has insurmountable inherent defects: the balance of payments surplus of the United States, while the supply of international reserve assets is insufficient; If the U.S. balance of payments deficit, the credit of the U.S. dollar is difficult to maintain
Marshall Lerner condition: when the national income of a country remains unchanged, the condition that depreciation can improve the trade balance is that the sum of demand elasticity of import and export is greater than 1
exchange rate system: refers to a series of arrangements or regulations made by a country's monetary authorities on the determination of the exchange rate level of its currency and the way of exchange rate changes. Including: the principle and basis of determining currency exchange rate; Methods of maintaining and adjusting the exchange rate; Laws, systems and policies governing exchange rates; Determine the mechanism for maintaining and managing the exchange rate
current account: refers to the account that records the international flow of actual resources. It includes the following items: goods, services, revenue and current transfers
capital and financial account: an account that records the international flow of asset ownership. It includes capital account and financial account
International Investment Position: the concept of reflecting a country's assets and liabilities to the rest of the world at a certain point in time is the international investment position, and the net value of a country's external assets and liabilities is the net international investment position
Mead conflict: under the fixed exchange rate system, a country has only one policy tool to change its expenditure, which can not achieve the two economic goals of internal and external balance at the same time
forward foreign exchange transaction: a kind of foreign exchange transaction, in which both parties sign a transaction contract in advance, determine the transaction time, price, exchange rate and currency, and deliver at maturity. The use of this transaction can also be hedging, but also speculation
Law of one price: under the condition of free trade, the price of the same commodity in the same currency all over the world is the same
currency crisis: generalized currency crisis, also known as exchange rate crisis, refers to a country's partner exchange rate changes significantly in the short term; In a narrow sense, currency crisis refers to the collapse of the fixed exchange rate system e to the large-scale replacement of assets in countries with fixed exchange rate system
absolute purchasing power parity theory: at a certain point in time, the ratio of the purchasing power (or price level) of the two countries' currencies determines the ratio of currency exchange between the two countries; It is equal to the reciprocal ratio of the price levels of the two countries
balance of balance of payments: it refers to the balance of capital transfer, direct investment, securities investment and other accounts between the current account and the capital and financial account, that is, the balance after excluding the official reserve account in the account
currency substitution: in the process of economic development, when China loses confidence in the stability of its currency value or the return rate of its currency assets is relatively low, foreign currency plays a role in all or part of its functions
European money market: it refers to the market in which non residents borrow and deposit their currency (freely convertible) outside the border of the currency issuing country through banks, also known as offshore money market
Mundell's Law: under the fixed exchange rate system, the policy matching principle of allocating internal equilibrium target to fiscal policy and external equilibrium target to monetary policy
J-shaped curve effect: when a country devalues, it will make the trade situation worsen rather than improve at first. Only after a period of time can the deterioration of the trade balance be controlled and tend to improve, and finally the trade balance situation will be improved. This process is described by a curve, similar to the capital J, which refers to the time lag effect of depreciation on the improvement of trade balance
expenditure conversion policy: refers to exchange rate policy and direct control policy. Exchange rate policy refers to the purpose of adjusting the balance of payments by adjusting the exchange rate so as to adjust the comparative relationship between imports and exports. Direct control policy refers to the policy that the government balances the balance of payments through administrative orders (such as quantitative control and price control). The two policies did not change the level of aggregate demand, but only changed the direction of expenditure
Special Drawing Right: a Book Asset allocated by IMF to member states according to their share, which can be used to repay the balance of payments deficit between IMF and member governments
Arbitrage: refers to the use of different foreign exchange markets, different types of currencies, different delivery periods of certain currencies in the exchange rate differences, to buy at a low price and sell at a high price of foreign exchange trading, to earn exchange differences. The types of arbitrage include direct, indirect and time arbitrage
the relationship with international trade is not clear.
6. Under the open economy, there are two tools to adjust the aggregate social demand: the increase and decrease of expenditure policy and the transformation of expenditure policy. The increase and decrease of expenditure policy includes monetary policy and fiscal policy. The increase and decrease of expenditure policy includes exchange rate policy. The appreciation of currency is exchange rate policy. The tightening of monetary policy is monetary policy. The adjustment of interest rate is different. When there is a surplus, exports are greater than imports. The appreciation of currency makes domestic goods expensive, Export competitiveness is small, so it can make the balance of international payments
7. The balance of payments surplus is also called "balance of payments surplus". In a certain period of time (usually one year), the total income of foreign economic exchanges between countries is greater than the difference of total expenditure, which is called surplus. It is usually marked with "+"
under the condition of interest rate liberalization, the balance of payments surplus means the increase of domestic money supply. When the growth rate of market demand for money is less than the growth rate of money supply, the money market supply is greater than the demand, and the interest rate of financial market decreases. When the international market interest rate is relatively low, a country's financial market interest rate falls, then the interest rate gap between the domestic interest rate and the international market interest rate will narrow, which will slow down the inflow of international capital and help rece the balance of payments surplus. However, the decrease of interest rate will lead to the devaluation of RMB and inflation. Since the second half of 2003, China's economy is facing the pressure of inflation. In order to prevent the negative impact of inflation on the economy, the central bank has to maintain the current deposit control interest rate and loan floating interest rate, thus delaying the process of interest rate marketization
response time: January 4, 2021. Please refer to the official website of Ping An Bank for the latest business changes
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under the condition of interest rate liberalization, the balance of payments surplus means the increase of domestic money supply. When the growth rate of market demand for money is less than the growth rate of money supply, the money market supply is greater than the demand, and the interest rate of financial market decreases. When the international market interest rate is relatively low, a country's financial market interest rate falls, then the interest rate gap between the domestic interest rate and the international market interest rate will narrow, which will slow down the inflow of international capital and help rece the balance of payments surplus. However, the decrease of interest rate will lead to the devaluation of RMB and inflation. Since the second half of 2003, China's economy is facing the pressure of inflation. In order to prevent the negative impact of inflation on the economy, the central bank has to maintain the current deposit control interest rate and loan floating interest rate, thus delaying the process of interest rate marketization
response time: January 4, 2021. Please refer to the official website of Ping An Bank for the latest business changes
[Ping An Bank I know] want to know more? Come and see "Ping An Bank I know" ~
https://b.pingan.com.cn/paim/iknow/index.html
8. The balance of payments of a country will lead to the fluctuation of its local currency exchange rate. Balance of payments is a summary of all the external economic and financial relations of a country's residents. A country's balance of payments reflects its international economic status, and also affects its macro and micro economic operation. In the final analysis, the influence of the balance of payments is the influence of the supply and demand of foreign exchange on the exchange rate
foreign exchange income is generated by an economic transaction (such as export) or capital transaction (such as foreign investment in China). Because foreign exchange can not circulate freely in the domestic market, it is necessary to convert foreign currency into domestic currency in order to put it into domestic circulation. This forms the foreign exchange supply in the foreign exchange market. Foreign exchange expenditure is caused by a certain economic transaction (such as import) or capital transaction (investment abroad). Because it is necessary to convert domestic currency into foreign currency to meet their respective economic needs, there is a need for foreign exchange in the foreign exchange market
when these transactions are integrated and recorded in the balance of payments statistics, a country's foreign exchange balance is formed. If the foreign exchange income is greater than the expenditure, the supply of foreign exchange will increase; If the foreign exchange expenditure is greater than the income, the demand for foreign exchange will increase. With the increase of foreign exchange supply and the constant demand, the price of foreign exchange will drop and the value of local currency will rise accordingly; When the demand for foreign exchange increases and the supply remains unchanged, the price of foreign exchange will rise, and the value of local currency will fall accordingly.
foreign exchange income is generated by an economic transaction (such as export) or capital transaction (such as foreign investment in China). Because foreign exchange can not circulate freely in the domestic market, it is necessary to convert foreign currency into domestic currency in order to put it into domestic circulation. This forms the foreign exchange supply in the foreign exchange market. Foreign exchange expenditure is caused by a certain economic transaction (such as import) or capital transaction (investment abroad). Because it is necessary to convert domestic currency into foreign currency to meet their respective economic needs, there is a need for foreign exchange in the foreign exchange market
when these transactions are integrated and recorded in the balance of payments statistics, a country's foreign exchange balance is formed. If the foreign exchange income is greater than the expenditure, the supply of foreign exchange will increase; If the foreign exchange expenditure is greater than the income, the demand for foreign exchange will increase. With the increase of foreign exchange supply and the constant demand, the price of foreign exchange will drop and the value of local currency will rise accordingly; When the demand for foreign exchange increases and the supply remains unchanged, the price of foreign exchange will rise, and the value of local currency will fall accordingly.
9. The first is open market operation, that is, issuing money to the market, buying and selling government bonds, and so on
Second, the discount rate, which determines the interest rate of inter-bank loans
Third, reserve requirements, that is, to make specific provisions on the ratio of bank reserves. Through these tools, we can adjust the money supply of the market.
Second, the discount rate, which determines the interest rate of inter-bank loans
Third, reserve requirements, that is, to make specific provisions on the ratio of bank reserves. Through these tools, we can adjust the money supply of the market.
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