Will the depreciation of the US dollar affect the virtual curren
Publish: 2021-05-12 15:48:26
1. I can only say that RMB should not be devalued at present. The main reason is that RMB is not an international currency at present. It is our country's established direction for RMB to go to the world in the future. If RMB devalues, it will definitely affect RMB's role as an international currency. At present, RMB is mainly pegged to the US dollar, which is very beneficial to the internationalization of RMB.
2. First of all, the current situation is that RMB is devalued against the US dollar. Other currencies have devalued against the US dollar for many years. That is to say, RMB has been appreciating against other currencies in the past year or two
secondly, judging from the future, the exchange rate of euro and pound sterling against the US dollar will graally strengthen, while the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is on the rise. My view is that in the next few years, the main currencies of RMB against the euro, yen and pound sterling will continue to depreciate, even by a large margin. As for the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar, Singapore dollar, etc., the currency value and RMB will depreciate simultaneously.
secondly, judging from the future, the exchange rate of euro and pound sterling against the US dollar will graally strengthen, while the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is on the rise. My view is that in the next few years, the main currencies of RMB against the euro, yen and pound sterling will continue to depreciate, even by a large margin. As for the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar, Singapore dollar, etc., the currency value and RMB will depreciate simultaneously.
3.
Suppose that after the devaluation of the US dollar to RMB 1:8, the amount of RMB that can be exchanged by the US dollar will be reced to 1:7, and then suppose that I have 1W US dollars. Before the exchange rate drops, the 1W US dollars = 8W RMB, but because of the depreciation of the US dollar, the amount of RMB that can be exchanged will be reced, so the 1W US dollars will become 7W RMB, This is equivalent to my hands of 1W RMB evaporation disappeared without reason. But on the other hand, in the U.S. dollar use area, where the U.S. dollar is used as the currency in circulation, such as the United States, because they have been using the U.S. dollar, even if the U.S. dollar depreciates, it will not affect domestic prices. Therefore, ring the financial crisis, the U.S. adopted various measures to increase the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the RMB, because China has the largest foreign exchange reserves of the U.S. dollar, Therefore, this kind of behavior in the United States is a bad trick to benefit oneself at the expense of others. Therefore, the depreciation of the US dollar has almost no effect on this kind of currency, but for countries and indivials with a large amount of US dollar foreign exchange reserves, they may suffer huge losses
America makes a lot of money! The United States consumes more and proces less. What kind of consumption do you take? Take the dollar. So every dollar is an IOU from the United States. The foreign exchange reserves of various countries are a pile of IOUS from the United States. This is the premise. The following is clear:
if the US dollar to RMB ratio is 1:10, China's one trillion US dollar foreign reserves will be 10 trillion RMB. If the US dollar is 1:1 to the people, China's one trillion US dollar foreign reserves will be 1 trillion yuan!! The devaluation of the US dollar devalues US debt
4. Today's latest exchange rate conversion: 1 US dollar = 6.3236 RMB yuan, the above data is for reference only, and the transaction price at the bank counter shall prevail.
5. For a long time, the U.S. economy has dominated the world, and the U.S. dollar has become a relatively stable international currency. For example: in the past, a dollar was converted to 7.6 yuan RMB, but now the exchange rate has fallen. A dollar is converted to 7 yuan RMB. If the United States issued US $100 million of US Treasury bonds and China bought them, which was equivalent to RMB 760 million at that time, what now? Because of the devaluation of the US dollar, a dollar can only be exchanged for 7 yuan, and the 100 million national debt is now only worth 700 million yuan. For the United States, the amount owed is relatively small. Another part is the devaluation of the US dollar caused by the subprime mortgage crisis. Many countries use the US dollar as their foreign exchange reserves; The depreciation of the US dollar has affected the import and export of these countries with us dollar based foreign exchange reserves to varying degrees; If the US dollar continues to decline, it will aggravate the pressure of global inflation and adversely affect the stability of the international financial system and global economic growth
6. Depreciation and appreciation are always relative. The US dollar against RMB, the euro against the US dollar, the euro against the Japanese yen, and so on are all explained in the form of currency pairs. They are all reference currencies or benchmark currencies. What kind of currency does the dollar depreciate against
in addition, unless a country's currency depreciates sharply e to great changes, under normal circumstances, devaluation will help increase domestic exports. If the dollar, as the international payment currency, depreciates sharply relative to most other countries' currencies, it will lead to fierce international protests. Countries will follow suit and introce relevant policies to rece the exchange rate of their own currencies, It's not certain who will depreciate a lot,
in addition, unless a country's currency depreciates sharply e to great changes, under normal circumstances, devaluation will help increase domestic exports. If the dollar, as the international payment currency, depreciates sharply relative to most other countries' currencies, it will lead to fierce international protests. Countries will follow suit and introce relevant policies to rece the exchange rate of their own currencies, It's not certain who will depreciate a lot,
7. Because the growth of China's comprehensive power and the enhancement of its national strength threaten the fundamental interests of the United States and the authority of "the world's first". Now the first step to weaken China is to force the appreciation of RMB by the United States. Before a large number of American consortia poured into China maliciously and exchanged a large number of US dollars for RMB, China's economic form was relatively stable. However, in fact, the amount of RMB issued by China was far less than the amount of wealth accumulated by Chinese people, because any kind of currency, as long as it can ensure the normal economic activities of the country, is enough, The cost of printing money is high. For example: China has a population of 1.3 billion, with an average wealth of 10000 yuan per person. China has a total wealth of 13 trillion yuan. In real life, it is impossible for everyone to carry all his wealth with him. Here, on average, each person carries 1000 yuan in cash (10%, which is already very large), and the rest is in the bank, In other words, under normal circumstances, the amount of cash flow (term: cash flow) is 100 billion yuan, multiplied by a certain mutation coefficient (here, for convenience of calculation, the ideal value is 100%). That is to say, under normal economic activities, China only needs to issue 200 billion yuan to meet its own economic activities
on the surface, the influx of funds from a large number of malicious foreign consortia into China has boosted China's economy, and increased domestic consumption, that is, increased domestic demand for cash flow. In this way, in order to meet the demand of mass consumption, China will print and issue a large number of RMB to meet this demand (as was the case in Japan at that time). According to statistics, the current investment in the international financial market is 136 trillion US dollars. As long as 1% of them flow into China for speculation, at the current exchange rate, China will issue 10.895584 trillion yuan (1.36 * 7.8644 = 10.695584 + 0.2 = 10.895584 trillion yuan), and the total amount of currency issued has exceeded 10 times of China's existing foreign exchange reserves (1 trillion US dollars), so it is difficult to take all of China's foreign exchange reserves into account, China's state-owned economy is negative 9.895584 trillion yuan, which can not count all the wealth of the whole Chinese people, because when the national economy collapses, the wealth in our hands will be worthless. If after the appreciation of the RMB, they use the RMB on hand to get us dollars, a large amount of RMB will remain in China. In that way, the Chinese people and even the world will lose confidence in China, no longer reserve and use or even sell off the RMB reserves in their hands, which will frustrate China's foreign trade activities, eventually lead to China's domestic inflation, external credit crisis and financial crisis. Like inflation in the 1940s, a box of matches costs hundreds of dollars. If the Chinese government makes a wrong decision on the RMB exchange rate, then the economic achievements of China's reform and opening up in the past 30 years may fall into the hands of others.
on the surface, the influx of funds from a large number of malicious foreign consortia into China has boosted China's economy, and increased domestic consumption, that is, increased domestic demand for cash flow. In this way, in order to meet the demand of mass consumption, China will print and issue a large number of RMB to meet this demand (as was the case in Japan at that time). According to statistics, the current investment in the international financial market is 136 trillion US dollars. As long as 1% of them flow into China for speculation, at the current exchange rate, China will issue 10.895584 trillion yuan (1.36 * 7.8644 = 10.695584 + 0.2 = 10.895584 trillion yuan), and the total amount of currency issued has exceeded 10 times of China's existing foreign exchange reserves (1 trillion US dollars), so it is difficult to take all of China's foreign exchange reserves into account, China's state-owned economy is negative 9.895584 trillion yuan, which can not count all the wealth of the whole Chinese people, because when the national economy collapses, the wealth in our hands will be worthless. If after the appreciation of the RMB, they use the RMB on hand to get us dollars, a large amount of RMB will remain in China. In that way, the Chinese people and even the world will lose confidence in China, no longer reserve and use or even sell off the RMB reserves in their hands, which will frustrate China's foreign trade activities, eventually lead to China's domestic inflation, external credit crisis and financial crisis. Like inflation in the 1940s, a box of matches costs hundreds of dollars. If the Chinese government makes a wrong decision on the RMB exchange rate, then the economic achievements of China's reform and opening up in the past 30 years may fall into the hands of others.
8. Generally speaking, the US dollar has depreciated.
as we all know, the US economy is in a difficult period, and its annual trade deficit with China makes it depreciate against RMB. In fact, we can see that the US dollar is also depreciating against other countries.
the appreciation of RMB will rece the trade surplus, but the relative price of Chinese goods is still very cheap, so it is competitive internationally, This kind of impact on trade should be relatively small
the US trade with China is a headache. On the one hand, it is restrained; on the other hand, it is inseparable from China, the big market and raw material import place, which is internationally known as the balance of financial terror
as we all know, the US economy is in a difficult period, and its annual trade deficit with China makes it depreciate against RMB. In fact, we can see that the US dollar is also depreciating against other countries.
the appreciation of RMB will rece the trade surplus, but the relative price of Chinese goods is still very cheap, so it is competitive internationally, This kind of impact on trade should be relatively small
the US trade with China is a headache. On the one hand, it is restrained; on the other hand, it is inseparable from China, the big market and raw material import place, which is internationally known as the balance of financial terror
9. There are both appreciation and devaluation of RMB. From two aspects, the external appreciation affects the export of domestic procts and the introction of foreign capital. It also affects the foreign treasury bonds held by the state, which is concive to the outward development of domestic capital. At the same time, the cost of health care, ecation and housing is rising
this problem is too big for experts to say. But it's good for the stock market< On the whole,
positive aspects:
1. Wang Yang, foreign exchange researcher of Guotai Junan Futures Company, today expressed his views on the devaluation of the RMB. The outflow of funds matched the devaluation of the RMB. The hematopoietic mechanism of the domestic base currency failed, and the central bank was on the verge of comprehensively recing the reserve requirement
2. The risk of domestic deflation may be alleviated. The devaluation of RMB reces the import of bulk commodities, which is generally bad for bulk commodities. However, if the international inflation tends to increase in the second half of the year, the risk of domestic deflation may also be alleviated through the channel of imported inflation
3. It is concive to economic recovery. The devaluation of RMB to ease export pressure is the way to minimize the cost of steady growth. Exports from January to July were - 0.8% year-on-year. Although global trade volume shrank, it would not cause China's exports to shrink so much. The devaluation of the RMB exchange rate will help rece the pressure on exports and help the recovery of the economy. The real economy will graally improve in the third quarter, which will support the stock market
4. Promote the flow of residents' assets to the stock market. Under the circumstances of moderate depreciation of RMB and declining domestic interest rates, the attractiveness of bank savings and real estate investment will decline, and the "surviving A-share" will attract funds from banks and property markets to the stock market< 1. Domestic interest rates are facing a passive rise. The marketization of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism will lead to the graal establishment of interest rate parity between domestic and foreign countries. In the case of rising interest rates in the United States, Europe and other countries, China's domestic interest rates are also facing the risk of passive rise, and the prices of domestic stock markets, bonds and other assets are facing revaluation
2. Liquidity shrinkage. Under the background of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, once the expectation of RMB devaluation is formed, it will lead to the outflow of hot money, and the domestic liquidity will shrink, which is not concive to the strength of a shares
3. Impact on domestic asset prices. The devaluation of RMB will impact domestic asset prices, which will lead to the weakening of financial, real estate and other related weight plates, and drag down the overall market< Textile and toys: the depreciation of RMB is beneficial to the export of foreign trade. Textile and clothing, toys, shoes and hats are the biggest beneficiaries. Some estimates show that every 1% depreciation of RMB will increase the sales profit margin of textile and clothing instry by 2% to 6%
related stocks: Lutai a, Jiaxin silk, Vosges, Huafang and qipilang; Qunxing toys, Gaole shares, etc
gold stocks: the depreciation of RMB leads to the appreciation of US dollar and the rise of gold price, which is good for gold enterprises
related stocks: CICC gold, Shandong gold, Chifeng gold, western gold, etc
household appliance enterprises: most of the procts are sold in US dollars, and the depreciation of RMB also increases the exchange earnings
related stocks: Qing Haier, Midea Group, Hisense, etc
other export-oriented listed companies: RMB depreciation will enhance the international competitiveness of procts and increase the gross profit margin
related stocks: abison (80% of procts are proced overseas), superstar Technology (the largest supplier of European and American large hand tool procts in Asia), etc
bad plate + indivial stocks
Finance and real estate: the depreciation of RMB will lead to the shrinkage of RMB assets (Finance and real estate occupy the main part); At the same time, capital outflow will lead to capital outflow from the real estate market, and some real estate enterprises have a heavy burden of overseas financing
related stocks: listed banks such as China Agricultural and Instrial Construction Co., Ltd. and listed real estate enterprises such as Zhaobao Wanjin
aviation and paper instry: the US dollar debt of aviation and paper instry accounts for a large proportion, and the devaluation of RMB will inevitably lead to exchange loss
related stocks: Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Hainan Airlines, etc.
this problem is too big for experts to say. But it's good for the stock market< On the whole,
positive aspects:
1. Wang Yang, foreign exchange researcher of Guotai Junan Futures Company, today expressed his views on the devaluation of the RMB. The outflow of funds matched the devaluation of the RMB. The hematopoietic mechanism of the domestic base currency failed, and the central bank was on the verge of comprehensively recing the reserve requirement
2. The risk of domestic deflation may be alleviated. The devaluation of RMB reces the import of bulk commodities, which is generally bad for bulk commodities. However, if the international inflation tends to increase in the second half of the year, the risk of domestic deflation may also be alleviated through the channel of imported inflation
3. It is concive to economic recovery. The devaluation of RMB to ease export pressure is the way to minimize the cost of steady growth. Exports from January to July were - 0.8% year-on-year. Although global trade volume shrank, it would not cause China's exports to shrink so much. The devaluation of the RMB exchange rate will help rece the pressure on exports and help the recovery of the economy. The real economy will graally improve in the third quarter, which will support the stock market
4. Promote the flow of residents' assets to the stock market. Under the circumstances of moderate depreciation of RMB and declining domestic interest rates, the attractiveness of bank savings and real estate investment will decline, and the "surviving A-share" will attract funds from banks and property markets to the stock market< 1. Domestic interest rates are facing a passive rise. The marketization of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism will lead to the graal establishment of interest rate parity between domestic and foreign countries. In the case of rising interest rates in the United States, Europe and other countries, China's domestic interest rates are also facing the risk of passive rise, and the prices of domestic stock markets, bonds and other assets are facing revaluation
2. Liquidity shrinkage. Under the background of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, once the expectation of RMB devaluation is formed, it will lead to the outflow of hot money, and the domestic liquidity will shrink, which is not concive to the strength of a shares
3. Impact on domestic asset prices. The devaluation of RMB will impact domestic asset prices, which will lead to the weakening of financial, real estate and other related weight plates, and drag down the overall market< Textile and toys: the depreciation of RMB is beneficial to the export of foreign trade. Textile and clothing, toys, shoes and hats are the biggest beneficiaries. Some estimates show that every 1% depreciation of RMB will increase the sales profit margin of textile and clothing instry by 2% to 6%
related stocks: Lutai a, Jiaxin silk, Vosges, Huafang and qipilang; Qunxing toys, Gaole shares, etc
gold stocks: the depreciation of RMB leads to the appreciation of US dollar and the rise of gold price, which is good for gold enterprises
related stocks: CICC gold, Shandong gold, Chifeng gold, western gold, etc
household appliance enterprises: most of the procts are sold in US dollars, and the depreciation of RMB also increases the exchange earnings
related stocks: Qing Haier, Midea Group, Hisense, etc
other export-oriented listed companies: RMB depreciation will enhance the international competitiveness of procts and increase the gross profit margin
related stocks: abison (80% of procts are proced overseas), superstar Technology (the largest supplier of European and American large hand tool procts in Asia), etc
bad plate + indivial stocks
Finance and real estate: the depreciation of RMB will lead to the shrinkage of RMB assets (Finance and real estate occupy the main part); At the same time, capital outflow will lead to capital outflow from the real estate market, and some real estate enterprises have a heavy burden of overseas financing
related stocks: listed banks such as China Agricultural and Instrial Construction Co., Ltd. and listed real estate enterprises such as Zhaobao Wanjin
aviation and paper instry: the US dollar debt of aviation and paper instry accounts for a large proportion, and the devaluation of RMB will inevitably lead to exchange loss
related stocks: Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Hainan Airlines, etc.
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