The influence of virtual currency on China's monetary policy
digital currency is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, the blockchain technology it relies on has been decentralized and can be used in other fields besides digital currency , which is one of the reasons why bitcoin is popular; On the other hand, if digital currency is widely used by the public as a kind of currency, it will have a huge impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy, financial infrastructure, financial market, financial stability and so on. Specific Wu Xiaoxia:
1. Impact on monetary policy
if digital currency is widely accepted and can play the role of currency, it will weaken the effectiveness of monetary policy and bring difficulties to policy-making
because digital currency issuers are usually unregulated third parties, money is created outside the banking system, and the amount of circulation depends entirely on the wishes of the issuers, which will lead to the instability of money supply. In addition, the authorities are unable to monitor the issuance and circulation of digital currency, which will lead to the inability to accurately judge the economic operation and bring trouble to policy-making, At the same time, it will weaken the effectiveness of policy transmission and implementation
2. Impact on financial infrastructure. The use of distributed ledgers also poses challenges to trading, clearing and settlement, as it promotes the disintermediation of traditional service providers in different markets and infrastructures. These changes may have potential impacts on market infrastructure other than retail payment systems, such as large payment systems, securities settlement systems or trading databases
3. The impact on financial intermediation and financial market in a broad sense. As a financial intermediary, banks perform the ties of acting supervisors and supervise borrowers on behalf of depositors
generally, banks also carry out liquidity and maturity conversion business to realize the financing from depositors to borrowers. If digital currency and distributed ledger are widely used, any subsequent disintermediation may have an impact on savings or credit evaluation mechanisms
4. The impact of security risks and financial stability
assuming that digital currency is recognized by the public, its use increases significantly and replaces legal currency to a certain extent, negative events such as network attacks on user terminals related to digital currency will lead to currency fluctuations, which will have an impact on the financial order and the real economy
in addition, the virtual currency based on blockchain technology is usually held by a few people at the beginning. For example, the first purchase of bitcoin in May 2010 was $25 pizza purchased by 10000 BTC, and the price of each bitcoin rose to $1200 in more than three years by the end of 2013
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extended materials
Amazon will launch digital currency project in Mexico. Amazon is recruiting software development managers for digital and emerging payments (DEP) to develop new payment procts that will enable customers to convert cash into digital currency
the digital and emerging payments sector intends to launch the proct in Mexico first. The follow-up will be extended to Brazil and India. It is reported that the digital currency project will completely focus on payment services in emerging markets
1. What is economic development
simply speaking, economic development is money, but where does money come from? Money can only be printed. So what makes the banknote printing machine keep running
suppose there are 1000 people on an island who are isolated from the world and exchange goods between people to live, but sometimes what you exchange in your hand is not necessarily what the other party wants. What should you do? So people use their favorite gold and silver as exchange things, so exchange is convenient. However, gold and silver have to be worn out, and it is not convenient to carry. When exchange activities are frequent, it is found that this thing is too cumbersome, which limits exchange activities. So in order to solve this problem, a solution is proposed, that is, the managers on the island issue a symbol to replace gold and silver, so banknotes appear
in the beginning, this kind of money could be exchanged for gold and silver at any time. Everyone is very relieved, because money is gold and silver. However, the output of gold and silver on the island is too small. When people's exchange activities become more frequent, there is not enough money and they have to suspend the exchange. The consequence of the suspension of exchange is that people will not proce what others want, because although others use it, they can not exchange it. To paraphrase the current words, economic development has slowed down
so we thought of a way to set up a bank, which belongs to us. The bank issues banknotes, and the printed banknotes are lent to the person who wants to use the money, and then the person who has the money will return them to the bank. So the bank came along
the emergence of banks can ensure that the exchange activities can be carried out more continuously. We all work hard to proce more and more things on the island. Banks keep printing banknotes according to the proction quantity of procts, so as to ensure that the exchange can be carried out more deeply
later, people's exchange activities became more frequent. One bank was too few, so many banks appeared. There must be a bank manager, so one bank was appointed to manage other banks, and the banknotes could only be printed by this bank, and then lent to the people who used the money through other banks, so the central bank also appeared< What is foreign trade
one day, people on the island invented the boat, so they rowed around and found another island with people and money on it, just like they did on their own island. However, there are many things proced on the island, but there are few things proced on that island. One yuan can buy one jin of rice on the island, and one yuan on that island can only buy half a jin of rice. Therefore, when the money from the other island comes to this island to buy things, it can only be changed from two yuan to one yuan. So there is the exchange rate. After calculating the exchange rate, they began to buy and sell things to each other's Island, which is foreign trade. Foreign trade enriches people's life and proction needs, and makes exchange activities to an unprecedented climax
3. What is inflation
there are so many procts proced on the island that it is impossible to accurately estimate how many banknotes should be issued. When there are too many procts to buy, the prices of procts begin to rise. When there are too few procts, the prices begin to fall. In order to ensure price stability, the central bank requires banks to put part of their money in the central bank to adjust the prices of procts, More or less according to the price. This is the deposit reserve ratio
but how can some smart people get money into their hands? He picked up a stone by the sea and said it was worth 1 million yuan. He sold it to a man. He thought that there was no 1 million yuan in the whole island. What should he do? So he borrowed it from the bank. The bank didn't have so much money, so he opened the money printing machine and printed the 1 million yuan, I lent him this stone
then the man began to sell the stone, and one million yuan was sold to the second person. Because the first person who sold the stone spent the money, there was more money on the island, so the million yuan could be raised and more procts could be bought. However, when the stone was transferred for 2 million yuan, the bank could only print another 1 million yuan of banknotes. In this way, more and more banknotes were printed. However, when the stone was continuously transferred, people did not think that there was more money on the island and the proct price was the same as before. However, when the stone does not circulate or circulates slowly, people feel that there is more money. However, if the person who holds the stone throws it into the sea, it means that there will be more than one million stones on the island out of thin air. What should we do? What the central bank fears most is that the stone is gone. Without it, the price of procts on the island will soar and inflation will occur. Then the stone owners kidnap the island's economy< Can house prices kidnap China's economy
China's real estate has made the people's Bank of China issue too much RMB. If the house price drops, it is equivalent to throwing that stone into the sea, so much money printed out will make the price of Chinese procts soar and lead to serious inflation
it seems that house prices have nothing to do with stones, but their attributes are the same, that is, the serious deviation between price and value. In fact, the real estate crash is not the biggest victim of China's commercial banks, but the entire Chinese economic system. Why does the government delay in lowering house prices? It's not that it can't. If we really want to lower house prices, we only need a decree, and the real estate prices will collapse overnight. But who can bear the consequences? Who will be responsible for the serious inflation< There is no doubt that the real estate instry has kidnapped China's economy. It is objective and real, and no one can change it
no matter who is the prime minister, honest or corrupt, they all hope for social harmony, but this is a thorny problem< Is there any relationship between house price and inflation
but it's not just here. If we rece house prices, we will face immediate inflation. If we do not rece house prices, we will face more serious inflation. Where to go
therefore, the most reliable way is to stabilize house prices, and then rece the amount of money when social procts increase. In addition, other policies, such as raising interest rates, increasing the reserve ratio of commercial banks, recing the scale of credit and other auxiliary means, are the best way to make China's economy soft landing. This is also the logic of all the policies we see. If you don't believe it, you can refer to a series of measures issued by the government in recent years to regulate the real estate instry
but why are house prices unstable and growing more rapidly? Is it the game between developers and the government? Let me tell you that no one in China can challenge the party. A few developers with big stomachs don't have such strength. In fact, it is another black hand behind the scenes who is playing games with the Chinese government. This black hand is foreign capital, the black hand of imperialism represented by the United States, who has seized the blood and sweat of the Chinese people
6. What is the driving force behind the rise of house prices
there are many driving forces for the rise of house prices, and one of them is the people who are beneficial to the rise of house prices. For example, local governments for the sake of GDP and personal interests, developers for making money, real estate speculators and so-called "house slaves" who have bought houses are all the driving forces for the rise of house prices, but the biggest driving force is not these, it is foreign capital, It's the major consortia of the United States that grab excess profits
as a businessman, it's not unreasonable for developers to make high profits, but there are businessmen in all walks of life. Do you want to make money? Unless it's a myth. The same is true for real estate developers. They don't earn as much as they want. According to the law of value, when the price of goods deviates from the value seriously, there will be a force that tends to return to the normal price to restrain the price rise. However, in China's real estate instry, this law does not seem to work. One important reason is that it ignores a reference range. If China's economy itself does break this law, But the current situation is that there is a force to maintain the price of the real estate instry, that is, supporting the market, so who is supporting the market
the people who can get huge profits when the real estate instry is out of control are the people who support the market
before discussing this issue, let's take a look at China's foreign exchange reserves. In recent years, China's foreign exchange reserves have rapidly exceeded one trillion or two hundred billion, and are still growing rapidly. Is it the Chinese people's hard work to earn it? There is no need to prove this. If we look at China's GDP growth, we can see that the growth rate of foreign exchange reserves is significantly faster than that of GDP. Obviously, it's not earned. In addition to the part earned, it is the influx of so-called "international hot money". The purpose of the influx of international hot money is to achieve high returns
when international hot money enters the Chinese market, it should be converted into RMB first, so how can there be so many RMB at once? The only way is to let the money printing machine work day and night, and then the money is used to hold the hot real estate market, that is, to invest in the real estate instry desperately. When the real estate price fluctuates downward e to deviation from the value, it will be raised by supporting the market. The appearance is that the real estate price never deviates from the value. As a result, house prices are rising higher and higher
as for developers, as soon as they can't sell the house, someone will pay a high price to buy it. How can they rece the price? If there is no such fund in operation, let alone the developer alliance, there is only one developer in the country, and the price will also drop. No one will buy it. Is it waiting for the house to get moldy
What do foreign investors do with so many high priced real estate? Are you not afraid to hit it
not afraid! Why? In the process of capital operation, there is a big wrongdoer at the bottom. Then, who is it? That is, China's commercial banks, e to the hot real estate market and first-class liquidity, have not seen any signs of shrinkage in recent years. They make profits after lending. Why not lend? There is no reason not to lend
in addition to the mood of Chinese people to buy houses, foreign investors can easily transfer high priced houses to Chinese banks and consumers, and even farmers who speculate in real estate can earn a share. Will professional foreign investors lose money
what will happen if house prices keep rising? Please look at the next section: "7. Will developers laugh or cry when house prices keep rising? When do you laugh? When do you cry? "
7. Will developers laugh or cry when house prices keep rising? When do you laugh? When do you cry
under the control of dozens of gold medals in recent years by the Chinese government, house prices are still running like wild horses. No matter when we can stop the rising trend, after all, house prices are still rising at present, so let's see what the rising house prices will bring
first of all, e to the rise of GDP, the Chinese government has to continuously invest RMB in order to maintain the "continuation of proct exchange" mentioned above, that is, to start the banknote printing machine. As long as the real estate stone has not been put into the sea, and there is a certain liquidity, then there will be no inflation
secondly, developers will live in this area
http://www.pbc.gov.cn/huobizhengce/huobizhengce/huobizhengcexingbaogao/huobizhengcexingbaogao/
let me give you another article for reference:
Review on the effect of China's monetary policy and fiscal policy in recent seven years At the central economic work conference of the CPC Central Committee, the central government decided to transform China's active fiscal policy, which has been implemented for nearly seven years, into a steady fiscal policy, thus transforming the macro policy from "one positive, one steady" to "two steady". This is another major measure after the central bank's decision to raise interest rates on October 29 last year to deal with China's local overheating economy. If the interest rate increase is a temporary first aid measure, then the change of fiscal policy is strategic. It is necessary to discuss the specific effects of the implementation of macro policies in the past seven years, which can provide reference for our future policy-making and system reform< By the end of 1996, China's deflation policy had successfully brought down the high inflation at that time and realized the "soft landing" of the economy. With the impact of the East Asian financial crisis in 1997, China's economy as a whole was in a state of deflation, In 1998, the Chinese government resolutely decided to launch an active fiscal policy for the first time since the founding of the people's Republic of China, accompanied by a prudent monetary policy. Up to the adjustment of the fiscal policy, this overall positive macro policy has lasted for nearly seven years, and the macro policy that can last for such a long time is rare in the world< On the one hand, a large number of projects invested in long-term construction bonds issued every year directly increase the investment in fixed assets and stimulate economic growth. During the implementation of the positive fiscal policy, the central government issued 100-150 billion yuan of long-term construction treasury bonds every year. From 1998 to July 2004, only 910 billion yuan was issued. But this kind of financial capital expenditure plays a more important role. In China, government funds have a guiding effect. For example, banks compete for loans for the last project of the government. The investment scale formed by "government investment and bank follow-up" is quite amazing
from the perspective of economic theory, although fiscal policy can directly stimulate investment, its effect is often discounted because of certain "crowding out effect". It should be pointed out here that e to specific institutional reasons, China's fiscal policy in this period had almost no "crowding out effect"< (2) the effect of "positive" monetary policy is rather weak
with the start of positive fiscal policy, macro policy is accompanied by steady monetary policy. In the view of relevant departments, the so-called prudent monetary policy is a policy that can prevent both inflation and deflation, that is, a moderate monetary policy. However, in fact, our monetary policy is relatively loose. The main reason is not that we have adopted a prudent monetary policy in name, but that we have violated its original intention in practice, that is, the money supply is still accelerating (the most important manifestation of active monetary policy). On the contrary, ring the implementation of a prudent monetary policy, the broad money supply (M2) has not increased very fast, compared with the previous annual growth rate of more than 20% (or even about 30%), In recent years, the growth rate of M2 has been stable below 15%, which is worthy of the name of "steady"; However, in recent years, China's m2 / GDP has been growing, especially after 1998. It is roughly estimated that the current ratio is about 2, which is rare in the world. Moreover, the people's Bank of China has lowered interest rates eight times since 1996, including five times since 1998
therefore, in these sense, our monetary policy is "positive". The role of monetary policy is manifested in two aspects, that is, with the expansion of money supply, the interest rate decreases, so the consumption of residents increases and the investment of enterprises expands. However, from the practical situation in China, the stimulating effect of these two aspects is not obvious. The main reason should be explained from the excess currency, the following only gives a rough overview from two aspects
from the perspective of money demand. According to Keynesian method, money demand can be divided into transaction demand, prevention demand and speculation demand. In an economy, the change of transaction demand will not be great. It is just a little bigger in the boom and a little less in the depression, but it will not be very different; However, in terms of preventive demand and speculative demand (the sum of the two is equal to that of quasi currency), there are often significant changes, which is the case in China
first of all, there is a great demand for money prevention. There has been a lot of discussion about Preventive Savings in the academic circle, that is, the uncertainty faced by Chinese residents in the transition period is greatly increased, such as unemployment, future pension and children's ecation, which requires a lot of spending, resulting in a large amount of savings, the marginal propensity to consume is constantly decreasing, and the increase of consumption promoted by interest rate rection is very limited
secondly, the high speculative demand for money is perhaps the most noteworthy. As we all know, China's stock market has always been characterized by speculative activities. A large number of private money flows into the stock market to participate in virtual economic activities, so the new money moves back and forth between the securities trading margin account and the current deposit account of enterprises and residents. Some scholars estimate that the proportion of funds entering the stock market in 2001 accounted for 26.32% of that year's m2. It can be seen that the absorption of money by the virtual economy is very amazing. However, because most of the capital is more important than speculation rather than long-term investment, the role of this part of capital entering the stock market for substantial proction is also very limited. Moreover, not only many residents with savings deposits participate in speculation, but also many enterprises themselves invest a lot of proctive capital in the stock market. We know that moderate speculation can activate the stock market, which is concive to the development of the real economy, but excessive speculation can only be a zero sum game, or even a negative sum game. It is just a game of redistributing wealth among speculators, which will not directly promote material proction, There could also be a lot of negative effects
from the perspective of credit, credit policy has always been tightening. The Asian financial crisis has given enough warning to the Chinese government, so the central bank suddenly tightened the credit supervision of commercial banks and implemented the loan responsibility system. Since then, there has been a credit crunch in China. Since 1995, the "deposit gap" in the financial system has further expanded, reaching 4905.9 billion yuan in 2003. Although the credit structure of state-owned banks has changed with the process of marketization, it is not substantial. It's just that we will no longer give loans to inferior state-owned enterprises, but the funds of large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises with good quality are still very rich, and the loans of a large number of small and medium-sized private enterprises are still difficult. As the capital of large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises has always been abundant, the interest rate cut will not stimulate their loan demand too much, so the stimulating effect of interest rate cut on investment is not obvious under this specific system
from the above two aspects, we can see that, on the one hand, the demand for money of economic entities has been high, on the other hand, bank credit has shrunk, so that a large amount of money deposited in banks can not be converted into investment, that is, there are serious problems in the transmission mechanism of our monetary policy, and ultimately the effect of "positive" monetary policy is greatly reced, On the surface, China has almost fallen into the liquidity trap. At this time, looking back at the "crowding out effect" of fiscal policy, it is very obvious. Since a large amount of funds can not be transformed into effective investment in the banking system, the issuance of additional treasury bonds has become a way to convert these funds into a part of the actual total demand through the purchase of treasury bonds. The bank supporting loans for treasury bond investment projects and other social funds also have the same nature, so there is basically no "crowding out effect". But it must be pointed out that this small "crowding out effect" is the result of distortion under the specific system of our country
to sum up, in the past seven years, our active fiscal policy has indeed played an extremely "positive" role, which is of great significance to ensure the economic growth in a specific period; At the same time, although the "positive" monetary policy is not satisfactory and the effect is very weak after the event, the "positive" monetary policy undoubtedly provides an extremely loose monetary environment for the positive fiscal policy to play an effective role, which is also a necessary condition for the positive fiscal policy to play a role under the specific state-owned enterprise system and banking system in China. Therefore, it is undoubtedly wise for the central government to change the active fiscal policy to a steady one, because the effect of the past fiscal policy is obvious, and fading out is also concive to effectively curb the current local economic overheating. Moreover, because our country's interest rate is not yet fully market-oriented, the central bank's role in using monetary policy in macro-control will still be very limited. Therefore, fiscal policy can not fade out immediately, otherwise, the economy will probably lead to recession and fall back into deflation. And this is probably the real reason for the adjustment to be "steady" rather than "tight". From this point of view, it is just right to change from "positive" to "steady". However, the problems of China's economy are largely long-term. Even if we can control the short-term economic fluctuations, the economic growth mode under this specific system can't help worrying people
problems: the economic growth model is still not healthy enough
from the previous detailed analysis, we can clearly feel the problems of China's economic growth model, that is, it is still a "government led" economy, and administrative intervention has increased instead of decreasing, Only seven years of active macro policy can maintain the economic growth (in fact, it is stable and declining), which determines that its growth mode is not healthy enough
just as some scholars have pointed out, our economy has changed from resource constrained to demand constrained since 1997, but we must see that this progress is still quite limited, because demand constraints are not market-oriented constraints, especially in terms of investment demand, which is mainly caused by the credit crunch ordered by the government. And the consumption demand constraint is formed under the investment demand constraint, especially the consumption demand of urban residents. As we all know, after the mid-1990s, China's economy bid farewell to the shortage. Urban residents' consumption of basic consumer goods and rable goods, such as color TV sets, refrigerators and washing machines, has been basically saturated, and they began to turn to the demand for high-end consumer goods, such as cars and housing. However, these procts are just the ones with insufficient market supply, especially the lack of personalization, The shortage of supply is directly related to the credit tightening policy. At the same time, e to SARS in 2003, the credit policy suddenly became loose, which immediately triggered an investment boom in steel, electricity, cement and other raw materials instries and real estate instry, directly leading to local overheating of the economy. But it's not a fever for no reason, it's years of repression
1. There are two kinds of explanations for the basic concept of the time lag of monetary policy effect in western theoretical circles, namely, the time lag of narrow monetary policy effect and the time lag of broad monetary policy effect
in a narrow sense, the time lag of monetary policy effect refers to the time from the implementation of the new monetary policy by the central bank to the time when the policy is applied to micro economic organizations and indivials through the transmission mechanism and shows obvious effect
in a broad sense, the time lag of monetary policy effect refers to the time distance from the events or trends that affect the objectives of monetary policy in economic operation to the obvious effect of new monetary policy, that is, the whole process of monetary policy from reaction, formulation, implementation, transmission to effectiveness. The time lag of broad monetary policy effect obviously includes the time lag of narrow monetary policy effect, which can more truly reflect the implementation of monetary policy
2. The reasons for the time lag of monetary policy effect
(1) as a carrier of monetary policy, the comprehensiveness of money is not completely consistent with the multi-level nature of economy. Economic change is a multi-level physical change, and various factors interact with each other to offset and stimulate each other; The change of monetary variable is a comprehensive change of value, and the change of value always has a transmission process to the change of material object
(2) policy making needs a cognitive process. It takes time for policy makers to analyze and judge the trend of economic phenomena and to find the right remedy. No matter how advanced the information collection and transmission technology and equipment are, no matter how smart the managers are, they also need time to deal with these problems< (3) social and psychological factors. From the perspective of the effectiveness of western monetary policy, whether it is Keynes's idea that it indirectly affects the economy through the influence of interest, or the Monetary School's idea that it directly affects the economy by influencing the relative price and income of various assets, they all recognize that there is a psychological expectation process for the change of monetary policy.
the so-called monetary policy refers to the sum of the policies and measures adopted by the central bank to adjust and control the money supply and then influence the macro-economy in order to achieve specific economic goals. The macroeconomic goals of the central bank through monetary policy mainly include price stability, economic growth, full employment and balance of payments
the goal of monetary policy is achieved through monetary policy tools. Monetary policy tools can not directly act on the ultimate goal, but must rely on intermediary indicators. The selection of intermediary indicators should meet the five standards of measurability, controllability, relevance, anti-interference and good adaptability with economic system and financial system. Generally, we choose financial variables such as interest rate, money supply, excess reserve and base money, and some also include exchange rate. There is a transmission mechanism for monetary policy tools to achieve the ultimate goal of monetary policy by means of intermediary indicators, and the length of time lag directly affects the effect of monetary policy< The monetary policy measures since 2000 mainly focus on the following aspects:
1. In order to promote the market-oriented reform of China's interest rate and promote the economic opening to the outside world, the people's Bank of China has decided to implement a new foreign currency interest rate management system from September 21. The specific contents are as follows: (1) foreign currency loan interest rate, large foreign currency time deposit interest rate of single US $3 million (including US $3 million) or equivalent of other six major foreign currencies, foreign currency deposit interest rate (regardless of amount) other than seven major foreign currencies, and all foreign currency interest rates among financial institutions shall be determined by financial institutions independently 2) The small deposit interest rates of seven major foreign currencies are set by the banking association and implemented by all financial institutions
2. Actively promote the construction of personal credit system and implement the real name system of savings. In order to standardize the behavior of savings and promote the construction of personal credit system, the people's Bank of China decided to implement the real name system of savings deposits from April 1
3. Encourage commercial banks to carry out financial business innovation. On February 14, the people's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly issued a document, announcing the "measures for the administration of pledged loans by securities companies", which allows commercial banks to obtain loans from securities companies by means of stock pledge
4. Strengthen the guidance of credit policy and guide the flow of funds. In April, the people's Bank of China issued a document to allow financial institutions other than the postal savings and exchange bureau to set up "ecational savings deposits" free of interest income tax; In August, the "measures for the implementation of student loans" was announced; In June, it jointly issued a document with the State Economic and Trade Commission, requiring all commercial banks to support the good and limit the bad in strict accordance with the requirements of the national instrial policy, restrict or prohibit loans for obsolete backward proction capacity, instries, procts and repetitive construction projects, and promote the adjustment and optimization of the economic structure. In September, in view of some problems existing in the implementation of closed loans, the notice on adhering to the conditions of closed loans and strictly controlling the issuance of closed loans was issued, requiring strict control of the issuance conditions of closed loans to prevent risks
5. Actively promote the construction of money market. The second batch of securities companies are approved to enter the interbank market to engage in financing business. In June, in order to develop the money market and broaden the financing channels of financial companies of enterprise groups, financial companies were allowed to enter the national interbank lending market and bond market. On November 9, the bill business department of instrial and Commercial Bank of China, the first professional bill business organization in China, was allowed to open. This is concive to promoting the development of bill business, forming a unified national bill market, and providing broad space for the central bank's rediscount operation
6. Improve rural financial services, support rural economic development, guide and standardize private credit. In July, it was decided that the postal savings funds at and below the county level should be returned to the rural credit cooperatives in the form of refinancing to support the credit investment of the rural credit cooperatives in farmers, rural areas and agricultural proction, and focus on providing loans to farmers, timely meeting the reasonable capital needs of farmers engaged in planting and breeding, processing and transportation of agricultural and sideline procts, and rural consumption credit. In December, the "opinions on improving rural financial services and banning private high interest loans" was issued. On the one hand, it is necessary to speed up the reform of rural financial system, establish and improve the rural system, operation mechanism, management system and service mode to meet the requirements of rural economic development, strengthen the support for farmers, agriculture and rural economy, and increase credit investment in rural areas, On the other hand,
the ultimate goal of monetary policy refers to the final effect of monetary policy implementation expected by monetary policy makers, which generally includes price stability, full employment, economic growth and balance of payments< (1) stabilize prices. This is one of the goals of macroeconomic regulation and control of most countries in the world, and also one of the ultimate goals of monetary policy. It means that the central bank maintains the price level at a basically stable level through the implementation of monetary policy< (2) full employment. The so-called full employment means that the unemployment rate drops to an acceptable level, that is, those who are able and willing to work can find suitable jobs at any time< (3) economic growth. Maintaining economic growth is the goal pursued by governments all over the world. In order to promote economic growth and alleviate the depression caused by cyclical economic crisis, western countries often maintain a high investment rate through the implementation of monetary policy to promote economic growth< (4) balance of payments. To achieve balance of payments means that a country can maintain good foreign exchange reserves to ensure the normal operation of foreign economic activities.