The end of virtual currency
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it can be seen that money itself is a kind of commodity, but this kind of commodity has a special function. It can be exchanged with any other commodity and acts as a general equivalent.
In my opinion, we can start with mainstream value currencies such as BTC now. Judging from the trend of BTC in the past year, it is basically at the bottom now. Even if it is possible to fall further, it will not fall too much. Ten years of history shows that BTC is certainly valuable, and BTC will definitely appreciate in the future. After all, it is the gold of the currency circle, which is rare and has the greatest consensus. The above is just a personal statement and does not constitute an investment proposal. Investment should be cautious! Finally, I declare that if you lose money by investing in virtual currency, I will not bear any legal responsibility
1、 Common analysis of virtual currency (1) bitcoin solution is designed and created by Japanese programmer Nakamoto (alias) in 2009, and it is the most successful and controversial network currency at present. Bitcoin scheme is based on P2P network architecture, which has been operating in the world, and can be used for all kinds of virtual and real goods and services transactions
In theory, if the existence of network currency affects the demand for the central bank's liabilities, and then interferes with the central bank's open market operation, it will have an impact on a country's monetary policy and price stability. However, from a practical point of view, the premise of network currency affecting price stability includes the following three aspects:(1) from the analysis of the impact on the amount of money, although it is difficult to analyze the extent to which the network currency scheme creates money in the case of lack of information
However,however, most Internet money systems operate in prepaid mode, that is, issuing Internet money when the real money is exchanged in and withdrawing money when the real money is exchanged out. In the famous network currency scheme, the supply of money is stable and the supply is small, but we still need to be vigilant whether it can ensure that the money supply will maintain a stable level in the long run, and the impact of the change of exchange rate between network currency and real currency
(2) from the analysis of the impact on the speed of money circulation, the use of cash and money statistics, the impact of the technological innovation brought by the network currency scheme on the speed of money circulation is not clear
as an Internet instry, it largely depends on the number of active internet currency scheme users. If the network currency is widely accepted, it will have a substitution effect on the real currency of the central bank, thus recing the use of cash in transactions
in this case, the scale of the central bank's balance sheet will be reced, and its ability to influence short-term interest rates will also be weakened. The central bank will need to fight against risks through ways such as setting minimum reserves for cyber currencies. Substitution effect will aggravate the difficulty of monetary statistics and affect the relationship between monetary statistics and inflation, which is not concive to the realization of long-term price stability. In addition, the issuance of network currency outside the central bank and the expansion of virtual credit will have an impact on the central bank's interest rate decision in the economy and weaken the central bank's monetary control
(3) from the analysis of the interaction between network currency and real economy, network currency can act as a real commodity trading medium and have an impact on real GDP
The influence of network money on real money supply depends on two aspects: one is the substitution effect of virtual economy on real economy; the other is the substitution effect of virtual economy on real economy; The second is the crowding out effect of Internet money on real money, that is, with the increase of the total amount of Internet money, the amount of cash held by the public in real life decreases, resulting in the decrease of cash / deposit ratio and the increase of money multiplier. In reality, the network virtual currency scheme will not affect the price stability at this stage, and the money flow speed will not be significantly affected in the short and medium term. However, the interaction between network currency and real economy deserves attention (2) financial stability risk when the virtual currency scheme operates outside the banking system, the most important factor of financial instability lies in its connection with the real economy, namely exchange rate and exchange market. Obviously, the closed network currency scheme and the one-way flow network currency scheme are not affected, so we should focus on the two-way flow network currency scheme. The value of two-way network currency depends on the level of money supply and demand in the exchange market. A big difference between network currency and real currency is that the network currency scheme is not based on the country or currency region, and the influence of virtual economy intensity, trade or proction capacity on its exchange rate is limited. The price of virtual money and its fluctuation depend on five factors:(1) money supply and other actions taken by currency issuers. For example: to achieve a fixed or semi fixed exchange rate by intervening in the market
(2) the network currency scheme shows network externality, and its monetary value depends on the number of users and merchants. As the number of consumers and businesses increases, their monetary value will increase accordingly. In addition, the exchange rate of network currency with small transaction volume fluctuates more(3) the virtual community with clear and transparent policies and advanced security measures is easier to boost confidence and the currency is stronger
(4) the reputation of network currency issuers in fulfilling their commitments. There is no "lender of last resort" in the virtual community, and the trust gained by the issuer is crucial to the exchange rate of internet currency
(5)
speculation on the future value of Internet money and cyber attacks on virtual communities. Due to the immaturity of the system, low trading, speculative activities and network attacks, the two-way network currency scheme is inherently unstable
qualitative. At present, the trading volume of these network currencies is small and the correlation with the real economy is low, so the stability of the financial system will not be affected. However, if Internet money becomes a substitute for traditional money in the future, it will bring instability to the financial system and even distort the relative prices of goods and services. The impact of network currency system on the financial system largely depends on the number of active users and the number of merchants who are willing to accept virtual currency for real transactions. In addition, virtual currency has only exchange value and no use value. Generally, network currency is not based on assets with intrinsic value and is not supported by central bank credit. At present, these network monetary systems are not allowed to lend
or borrow funds, so it can not pose a threat to the stability of the financial system, but we should pay close attention to its development. If there is any change in the future, it will undoubtedly have an impact on the financial system
in a specific virtual community, virtual currency payment activities have evolved into a "real" payment system, facing typical risks related to the payment system: credit risk, liquidity risk, operational risk and legal risk. The nature, scale and ration of these risks are largely determined by the design of the system or the degree of lack of liquidity, so it is difficult for the network virtual currency scheme to avoid or control these risks. According to the core principles of payment system (CP) issued by the bank for International Settlements (BIS), the network virtual currency scheme does not conform to most of the contents of CP, and does not belong to the systemically important payment system. Therefore, it will not cause
or transmit shocks in the global financial system. At present, there is no systematic risk in the network currency system outside these virtual communities
2. Lack of corresponding supervision and protection mechanism
in the real economy, the central bank plays the role of lender of last resort and has no default risk, so it can take actions in the case of payment crisis or unpredictable liquidity shortage to avoid chain reaction. However, in the network virtual currency scheme
it is impossible to use network currency as settlement asset. Because network currency simply depends on the credibility of the issuer, it can not be widely accepted as a means of payment, so network currency can not be regarded as a safe currency. In addition, commercial banks are required to accept prudential supervision, which reces the possibility of default, and the security of money in commercial bank accounts is higher than that of network currency. A fundamental risk of network currency is that the settlement institution of network currency scheme is not subject to any supervision, no institution is responsible for its behavior, and there is no investor / depositor protection mechanism, which causes the user to bear all the risks
supervision and the anonymity, invisibility and difficulty in tracking of its transactions, the network virtual currency scheme is very easy to be used by terrorist activities, fraud, money laundering and other illegal activities. At present, many government departments in many countries are considering whether to recognize or
legalize these virtual schemes and bring them into the scope of supervision, so as to support the innovation of currency and payment forms, protect the rights and interests of consumers and financial stability, and inhibit the use of virtual currency schemes to engage in criminal activities
at present, the uncertainty of the legal status of the virtual currency scheme may also bring challenges to the government authorities (5) reputation risk of monetary authority the reputation of Monetary Authority (central bank) is the key factor to determine the effectiveness of monetary policy. The public's trust in fiat money is closely related to the image of the central bank, which pays close attention to its reputation. The ECB defines reputation risk as the risk of deterioration of reputation, credit or public image. As the network currency scheme is related to money and payment, it is generally believed that it belongs to the responsibility of the central bank, so we should be alert to the reputation risk it may bring to the central bank. However, in the case of small scale, the impact of the failure of the network currency scheme is limited, but its high volatility and instability also aggravate the possibility of failure and attract extensive media coverage. If the network currency is allowed to develop continuously without
regulation, the central bank may be considered as dereliction of ty and affect its reputation (6) the risk of investors' loss
for exchange value, the public has a higher recognition of the investment value of network virtual currency, and it is investment based transactions that accelerate the formation of virtual currency market. Like other investment markets, participants in virtual money market will also face potential losses caused by market risk, credit risk and policy risk. Take bitcoin as an example: from 2009 to early 2010, bitcoin was worthless; In the summer of 2010, bitcoin trading began to enter the golden
period. As the supply was far less than the demand, the value of online trading began to rise. In early November, bitcoin was silent at 29 cents for many days, and then jumped to 36 cents; In February 2011, bitcoin continued to appreciate, and its exchange rate with us dollar
reached 1:1; In 2013, the price of bitcoin achieved a "Big Bang" growth, and hit US $1242 on November 29, 2013, surpassing the gold price of US $1241.98/ounce in the same period. Fierce price fluctuations make market participants face huge speculative risks. Unlike mature capital markets such as stocks and bonds, the depth of bitcoin market is insufficient, and it is mainly held in the hands of large investors with low degree of diversification. Bitcoin price is easily affected by large investors' buying and selling behavior, and also easily manipulated by speculators. At the same time, different countries have different attitudes towards bitcoin, Germany, the United States and other countries hold an open and supportive attitude, and Thailand, Brazil and other countries regard bitcoin related activities
as illegal. Every country's attitude and measures will have a significant impact on the price of bitcoin, especially in the short term
virtual currency is always inferior to real currency< br />
this is also a distributed (decentralized) digital currency. Unlike the sha256 mining algorithm used by bitcoin, LTC adopts scrypt algorithm. Scrypt algorithm uses sha256 as its subroutine, and scrypt itself needs a lot of memory. Each hash is used as the seed of the input, and then it needs a lot of memory to store another pseudo-random sequence to generate the pseudo-random points of the sequence and output the hash value. In the mining of BTC (bitcoin), it is not enough to rely on simple graphics card mining (it takes about ten to dozens of days to dig a BTC with general configuration graphics card). The emergence of various expensive mining machines has raised the threshold for ordinary people to get BTC through mining, while LTC has certain advantages in using PC graphics card mining This passage comes from Zhihu.)
compared with BTC, litecain has made a little improvement in technology. If BTC is gold now, LTC is silver for the time being
the biggest advantage of litecoin is that it can confirm the authenticity faster. The virtual currency is designed and maintained by Charles Lee. Bitcoin transactions need to be verified, and the average verification time is more than 10 minutes. Most transaction websites need 1 hour to verify. The average transaction confirmation time of liteoin is 2.5 minutes. Developers claim that shortening the verification time increases the practicability of virtual currency. The bitcoin mining efficiency of customized machine and AMD GPU is the highest, making it almost unprofitable for miners using CPU mining. Litecain's mining excludes GPUs and custom processors, so it doesn't rely too much on a small number of professional miners
ppcoin
ppcoin (PPC) was released on August 19, 2012, which has improved the original technology of BTC. Use proof of make and add the concept of coin age
ppcoin is a bifurcated project of bitcoin, which aims to achieve energy efficiency and maintain the best performance of the original bitcoin as far as possible. The unit price of ppcoin is US $0.22 and the total currency value is US $4 million
ppcoin does not have a fixed upper limit of money supply, but it does not mean that ppcoin has obvious inflation compared with bitcoin. Bitcoin can be compared to gold. The annual inflation rate of gold is about 1-3%. Although gold has no known upper limit of money supply, we still know that it is a reliable scarce commodity
ppcoin has two types of casting: work certificate and equity certificate. The coinage rate of working proof is affected by Moore's law, which depends on the doubling of our working proof ability. What we all know is that Moore's law will eventually come to an end. By then, the ppcoin of inflation may be close to the gold level. The annual maximum inflation rate of certificate of equity is 1%. At the same time, ppcoin's transaction costs were destroyed to fight inflation. So on the whole, the coin design of ppcoin is still a very low inflation design in the future, which can be comparable with bitcoin<
ppcoin's reward is similar to lottery, which will determine the winning probability according to the number of ppcoin held by miners. Sunny king, one of the founders, said that their design is based on a new concept of long-term energy efficiency
terracoin
terracoin (TRC) was released on October 26, 2012, with a total currency of 42 million. The speed of each block is 2 minutes, slightly faster than LTC. There is not much special in technology, similar to the proction of BTC halved every four years
however, the operation team seems to have a strong business background and may be better than other bitcoins in circulation. The development of virtual currency is getting more and more attention. Now some teams with business background will accelerate the development of virtual currency
namecoin
namecoin is a distributed domain name system based on bitcoin technology. Its principle is the same as bitcoin. The first release date of this open source software is April 18, 2011
namecoin is generated from an original block which is different from bitcoin's main trading block. It uses a new blockchain, which is independent of bitcoin's blockchain. Because it is based on bitcoin, the security, distribution, robustness, encryption and migration of domain names are guaranteed mathematically. You can dig bitcoin and namecoin at the same time
this project was discussed and proposed by bitdns, which is mainly dissatisfied with the defects of DNS. The only top-level domain name of namecoin is. Bit. It costs namecoin to register a. Bit domain name
in addition, Q currency, Shanda currency, starting point currency and various online game currencies are also virtual currencies.
the premise for virtual currency to replace real currency is the comprehensive popularization of global network, that is, even a person with nothing has to have something that can be connected to support the exchange of virtual currency, followed by national or international recognition that it is valuable, and finally the mature popularization of virtual reality and other technologies
as long as VR or AR technology can be popularized all over the world and an irreplaceable resource can be found in VR or AR, it should be feasible to use this resource as currency, unless a country / region has no contact with VR or AR technology at all
a marketer refers to a professional manager engaged in market research, market forecast, commodity (proct) market development, commodity market launch planning, market information management, price management, sales promotion, public relations, etc. in the marketing management activities of various enterprises and institutions, who is engaged in market research, market analysis, marketing planning, market development, direct sales, sales promotion, etc Customer management and other marketing activities
the professional qualification certificate is the proof that the laborer has the necessary knowledge and skills to engage in a certain occupation. It is the qualification certificate for workers to apply for a job, hold a post and start a business. It is the main basis for employers to recruit and employ workers. It is also an effective certificate for overseas employment and foreign labor cooperation personnel to notarize their skill level. Professional qualification certificate is closely related to professional labor activities, reflecting the actual work standards and norms of a specific occupation
vocational qualification certificate is an important part of the employment system, and also a special form of national examination system. It means that according to the vocational skill standards or qualification conditions formulated by the state, through the assessment and appraisal institutions recognized by the government, the workers' skill level or vocational qualification can be evaluated and appraised objectively, fairly, scientifically and normatively, and the corresponding national vocational qualification certificate can be granted to the qualified ones
in August 2015, a number of professional qualification certificates with high "gold content" will be cancelled. So far, China has cancelled 211 professional qualifications, accounting for 34% of the total number of professional qualifications set up by the State Council departments.
at present, 60% of bitcoin's computing power, 60% of transaction currency, bitcoin and other virtual currency markets occupy the leading position The figure of Duhua, a virtual currency, is better than that of Li Qiwei, the founder of Laite coin. Yuanbao coin, Fuyuan coin and Zhaocai coin are all proced in China. Zeng Hongji bitstock pit LiXiao investment project
pay attention to virtual currency research. Bitcoin related enterprises pay more attention to infrastructure construction research and development in Europe and America