The influence of US dollar on virtual currency
Publish: 2021-04-15 13:00:35
1. Bitcoin is priced in US dollars. Bitcoin and the US dollar are in a reverse relationship.
2. Hello friend, digital currency is not recommended
3. In my opinion, many people today will lay an impermeable thing under the bottom of the fish pond. I don't know what it is. It looks like canvas or plastic cloth. We can learn from it.
4. After the outbreak of the epidemic last year, the US dollar began to print in a crazy way. Within a month, the total amount of money printed in the past ten years was printed, leading to a vertical rise in the whole money supply
all kinds of signs make us dollar credit system full of uncertainty.
all kinds of signs make us dollar credit system full of uncertainty.
5. The fluctuation of RMB devaluation will have the following effects:
first, for shareholders,
the A-share market may be under pressure, and finance and real estate may become the deeply damaged sectors
if RMB devalues in the near future, the A-share market may be under pressure. Overseas experience shows that every round of currency devaluation in emerging markets is accompanied by capital outflow and stock market correction. In terms of instry sectors, the financial and real estate instries tend to suffer the most. At the same time, RMB depreciation may lead to temporary capital outflow. With more default events of bonds, trusts and real estate debt emerging one after another, overseas investors may be more worried about China's macro-economy, which will lead to temporary capital outflow. The depreciation of RMB will affect the balance sheet and income statement of listed companies. From a balance sheet perspective, the civil aviation and real estate sectors are likely to be the most negatively affected< In terms of personal life, studying in the United States and other countries settled in US dollars means more consumption. For example, if you go to the United States for an MBA now, the tuition fees and living expenses for two years amount to US $300000. According to yesterday's exchange rate, it is 1.834 million yuan, which will cost nearly 40000 yuan more
2. With the appreciation of the US dollar, the purchasing power of RMB will decline, and the prices of some overseas commodities will rise, so will the American overseas shopping and purchasing agency. Compared with the US dollar, the euro, yen and other currencies are relatively stable or even devalued against the RMB. Those who are used to buying goods in the US may immediately feel that it is time to move to Europe, South Korea or Japan
3. The cost of outbound travel should rise a lot
if you still like to shop by credit card, you should judge the trend of RMB. If RMB is appreciating, you can pay less by delaying repayment. But if the RMB continues to depreciate, it's best to consider exchanging all the cash before going abroad
4. For the real estate investment hedge, the loss is inevitable
because the depreciation of RMB may cause some impact on the real estate income. Of course, for the moment, real estate is still the main means for Chinese people to maintain and increase their value< In terms of instry investment,
1. The export-oriented instry will undoubtedly benefit.
of course, there are advantages and disadvantages in everything. In the case of RMB devaluation, are there any instries that benefit? From the perspective of instries, the export-oriented instries in the A-share market will undoubtedly benefit from the depreciation of RMB, among which textiles and clothing, toys, shoes and hats will be the biggest beneficiaries. Due to the high dependence on exports in the textile and garment instry, the depreciation of RMB, on the one hand, will help companies rece costs, improve proct competitiveness, and enterprises will get more orders. On the other hand, it will help export-oriented enterprises obtain exchange earnings. The devaluation of RMB means that the purchasing power of foreign currency will be enhanced, which will further stimulate consumption and benefit the export of toy instry
2. Airlines are hit
the impact of RMB depreciation on airlines is the first. Because airlines purchase aircraft will proce a lot of US dollar liabilities, RMB depreciation will proce exchange losses. The main operation tools of airlines are generally financial leasing or loan purchase. Airlines are relatively capital intensive instries with high debt ratio, and the cost of aircraft purchase is generally in US dollars
3. Real estate companies are under great pressure
the devaluation of RMB will rece the profit margin of speculative capital, promote capital outflow, cause the shortage of domestic funds flowing to the real estate instry, and then change the current relationship between supply and demand of real estate. Under the condition of constant total supply of real estate, large state-owned enterprises and real estate enterprises are expected to have more foreign debts e to lack of funds and demand support. RMB appreciation will not only cause exchange rate losses, but also increase the cost of capital if we continue to borrow US dollar debt< In theory, the devaluation of RMB is indeed concive to exports, and some small export enterprises with instant settlement of foreign exchange may benefit from it. However, foreign trade enterprises with large trading volume may not feel the positive impact of this round of devaluation e to locking the exchange rate with banks in advance
coping strategies: analysts say that in order to rece the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, foreign trade enterprises need to lock in exchange rate risk through some foreign exchange derivatives, such as forward settlement and sale of foreign exchange, foreign exchange swap, foreign exchange options, etc. In order to avoid risks, the strategy of import and export enterprises is very simple: import enterprises only need to postpone the time of purchasing foreign exchange as far as possible, because the US dollar will be cheaper and cheaper relative to RMB.
first, for shareholders,
the A-share market may be under pressure, and finance and real estate may become the deeply damaged sectors
if RMB devalues in the near future, the A-share market may be under pressure. Overseas experience shows that every round of currency devaluation in emerging markets is accompanied by capital outflow and stock market correction. In terms of instry sectors, the financial and real estate instries tend to suffer the most. At the same time, RMB depreciation may lead to temporary capital outflow. With more default events of bonds, trusts and real estate debt emerging one after another, overseas investors may be more worried about China's macro-economy, which will lead to temporary capital outflow. The depreciation of RMB will affect the balance sheet and income statement of listed companies. From a balance sheet perspective, the civil aviation and real estate sectors are likely to be the most negatively affected< In terms of personal life, studying in the United States and other countries settled in US dollars means more consumption. For example, if you go to the United States for an MBA now, the tuition fees and living expenses for two years amount to US $300000. According to yesterday's exchange rate, it is 1.834 million yuan, which will cost nearly 40000 yuan more
2. With the appreciation of the US dollar, the purchasing power of RMB will decline, and the prices of some overseas commodities will rise, so will the American overseas shopping and purchasing agency. Compared with the US dollar, the euro, yen and other currencies are relatively stable or even devalued against the RMB. Those who are used to buying goods in the US may immediately feel that it is time to move to Europe, South Korea or Japan
3. The cost of outbound travel should rise a lot
if you still like to shop by credit card, you should judge the trend of RMB. If RMB is appreciating, you can pay less by delaying repayment. But if the RMB continues to depreciate, it's best to consider exchanging all the cash before going abroad
4. For the real estate investment hedge, the loss is inevitable
because the depreciation of RMB may cause some impact on the real estate income. Of course, for the moment, real estate is still the main means for Chinese people to maintain and increase their value< In terms of instry investment,
1. The export-oriented instry will undoubtedly benefit.
of course, there are advantages and disadvantages in everything. In the case of RMB devaluation, are there any instries that benefit? From the perspective of instries, the export-oriented instries in the A-share market will undoubtedly benefit from the depreciation of RMB, among which textiles and clothing, toys, shoes and hats will be the biggest beneficiaries. Due to the high dependence on exports in the textile and garment instry, the depreciation of RMB, on the one hand, will help companies rece costs, improve proct competitiveness, and enterprises will get more orders. On the other hand, it will help export-oriented enterprises obtain exchange earnings. The devaluation of RMB means that the purchasing power of foreign currency will be enhanced, which will further stimulate consumption and benefit the export of toy instry
2. Airlines are hit
the impact of RMB depreciation on airlines is the first. Because airlines purchase aircraft will proce a lot of US dollar liabilities, RMB depreciation will proce exchange losses. The main operation tools of airlines are generally financial leasing or loan purchase. Airlines are relatively capital intensive instries with high debt ratio, and the cost of aircraft purchase is generally in US dollars
3. Real estate companies are under great pressure
the devaluation of RMB will rece the profit margin of speculative capital, promote capital outflow, cause the shortage of domestic funds flowing to the real estate instry, and then change the current relationship between supply and demand of real estate. Under the condition of constant total supply of real estate, large state-owned enterprises and real estate enterprises are expected to have more foreign debts e to lack of funds and demand support. RMB appreciation will not only cause exchange rate losses, but also increase the cost of capital if we continue to borrow US dollar debt< In theory, the devaluation of RMB is indeed concive to exports, and some small export enterprises with instant settlement of foreign exchange may benefit from it. However, foreign trade enterprises with large trading volume may not feel the positive impact of this round of devaluation e to locking the exchange rate with banks in advance
coping strategies: analysts say that in order to rece the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, foreign trade enterprises need to lock in exchange rate risk through some foreign exchange derivatives, such as forward settlement and sale of foreign exchange, foreign exchange swap, foreign exchange options, etc. In order to avoid risks, the strategy of import and export enterprises is very simple: import enterprises only need to postpone the time of purchasing foreign exchange as far as possible, because the US dollar will be cheaper and cheaper relative to RMB.
6. The U.S. dollar index is the average value of the U.S. dollar and all other major international currencies, for example, the U.S. dollar against the pound, the U.S. dollar against the yen, the U.S. dollar against the euro, the U.S. dollar against the RMB, and so on. These constitute a no index, you see the US dollar index as a large market, and then the exchange of various currencies in it is the factor that makes up the US dollar index. The rise and fall of the US dollar means that most other currencies will fall. Not all currencies are the same. Just like you understand the Shanghai stock index, if the index goes up, not all the stocks in it will go up and down, but also be affected by other factors. If you have any questions, you can ask me again.
7. As the world currency, the US dollar can serve the economy, become the largest debtor, and issue bonds to serve the economy. In this economic crisis, the US issues bonds and China pays the bill.
maintaining the US dollar system plays a very important role in maintaining economic hegemony with the US. At present, it can ease the US economic downturn, and other countries pay for the US economic crisis
domestic currency is the world currency. For domestic currency, it has more voice in the world to serve its own economy
the impact of the depreciation of the US dollar on the world economy
the depreciation of the US dollar will directly contribute to the rise of global energy and primary proct prices and bring inflationary pressure to the world. Historical experience shows that the price of crude oil and gold (218.75, - 0.73, - 0.33%) move against the US dollar exchange rate. Since the US dollar is still the monopoly currency in international oil trading, the depreciation of the US dollar leads to the decline of oil revenue of oil procing countries. In this case, on the one hand, oil procing countries still limit proction and guarantee prices while oil prices rise, thus further raising oil prices; On the other hand, in order to promote the diversification of investment, we sell US dollar assets and replace other assets, thus aggravating the depreciation of US dollar. Gold has always been a powerful tool for people to fight against inflation and devaluation of international reserve currency. The period when the gold price soars is often the period when the inflation pressure intensifies or the US dollar depreciates sharply. The rise in global energy and primary proct prices will drive up the prices of other procts. For example, the rise in oil prices has brought about a boom in the development of biofuels in various countries. As corn (1760,16.00,0.92%) and other crops are used to proce ethanol, the price of corn is rising, resulting in the increase in the price of livestock feeding on corn. A large amount of arable land is used to grow corn, which reces the area of arable land for other agricultural procts, thus promoting the rise of global food prices
the depreciation of US dollar and the fluctuation of exchange rate are not concive to the stability of international financial market. The US dollar is in a monopoly position in many aspects of the international financial market, such as foreign exchange transactions, exchange rate formation, bond issuance, financial asset pricing and so on. The continuous depreciation and frequent fluctuation of the US dollar will directly lead to the increase of transactions in the foreign exchange market and the frequent adjustment of the exchange rate relationship between various currencies, which aggravates the turbulence of the foreign exchange market; Secondly, the depreciation of the US dollar will cause the change of the relative value of the assets denominated in US dollar and other currencies, so investors will revalue the value and yield of assets denominated in different currencies, and adjust the portfolio of financial assets accordingly, which will lead to the increase of financial speculation and disordered flow of funds, and affect the stability of the financial market; Thirdly, in order to deal with the subprime crisis, the Federal Reserve's measures of recing interest rates and providing liquidity to the market have further increased the liquidity which has already been inundated in the global market, increased the scale of speculative capital instead of decreasing, and continued to increase the potential risks in the global financial market
the depreciation of the US dollar has a negative impact on the export trade of developed economies, which may trigger the rise of trade protectionism. For example, the depreciation of the US dollar means that the euro will continue to appreciate against the US dollar, which will affect the export competitiveness of euro countries. Two major European aerospace manufacturing groups, Dassault airlines and EADS, have also announced that they will move some of their assembly lines to areas with us dollar as the main currency for proction e to the rise of proction costs settled in Euro e to the depreciation of US dollar and the decrease of prices of procts sold in US dollar, so as to rece labor costs and relieve the pressure of cost growth caused by the appreciation of euro against US dollar, So as to change the disadvantageous situation brought by the continuous depreciation of the US dollar. French President Nicolas de France; Mr. Sarkozy is also worried that if measures are not taken to solve the exchange rate problem caused by the depreciation of the US dollar, it may trigger an "economic war". In particular, companies that rely heavily on the U.S. domestic market will face a heavy blow. The share price of Toyota Motor Co., Ltd. in Japan fell to the lowest level in 14 months in anticipation of the continued depreciation of the U.S. dollar
the depreciation of the US dollar will bring more severe challenges to emerging economies. First, the loss facing emerging economies is the shrinking of foreign exchange reserves. Due to the long-term trade surplus with the United States, emerging economies have accumulated a large number of foreign exchange reserves mainly in US dollar assets. The depreciation of the US dollar means the "evaporation" of their wealth. Second, the depreciation of the US dollar also means that the long-term export dependent economic development model of emerging economies is no longer feasible. With the advancement of economic globalization, global economies are linked with each other and cannot be "decoupled". As one of the main engines of the world economy, the decline of US consumer demand will rece the export and slow down the growth of emerging economies. Thirdly, the devaluation of the US dollar will make a lot of money flow to emerging economies to find investment depressions. A large influx of foreign capital will drive the surge of domestic asset prices in emerging economies and breed economic bubbles. When the U.S. economy recovers and the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen, a large number of funds will withdraw from emerging economies and flow into the United States; Because emerging economies lack perfect financial supervision system, the mechanism to guard against financial risks is weak. When a large amount of capital is withdrawn, it will lead to the collapse of the economic bubble and the financial crisis.
the impact of US dollar depreciation on China's economy
firstly, US dollar depreciation increases the pressure of RMB appreciation and the difficulty of macro-control. Although China implemented the reform of RMB exchange rate mechanism in July 2005, the cumulative appreciation of RMB against the US dollar has exceeded 10%. However, e to the significant depreciation of the US dollar against other major currencies in the world, and the RMB exchange rate is mainly pegged to the US dollar, the RMB has depreciated relative to the major currencies such as the euro and the pound. Countries and regions, including the European Union and Canada, are pressing for RMB appreciation to bear some consequences of the depreciation of the US dollar. Recently, RMB has accelerated the pace of appreciation, and the depreciation of US dollar has undoubtedly become an "important driver"
secondly, the Federal Reserve's rection of the federal funds rate has hindered the Chinese government's macro-control policy. Once the U.S. GDP suddenly decelerates or the real estate market accelerates to decline, the Federal Reserve may continuously rece the federal funds rate, which will cause a large number of short-term capital to flow out of the United States, and China is the ideal destination for these capital. At present, China is in the situation of excess liquidity and rising asset prices. The ideal policy is to increase the interest rate of RMB deposits and loans. Once the people's Bank of China raises the interest rate, the interest rate gap between the people's Bank of China and the federal funds rate of the United States will be further narrowed or inverted, leading to more capital inflows. The narrowing or upside down of the interest rate gap between China and the United States will also cause appreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate
the depreciation of the US dollar will pose a severe test to China's exports. With the increase of RMB appreciation, the inhibitory effect of exchange rate appreciation on export will graally appear. In addition, China has actively adjusted its foreign trade policy in recent years, especially since July 2007, it has reced the export tax rebate rate of many export commodities, which directly reces the profit margin of export enterprises. In recent two years, there has been a shortage of labor in Guangdong and other coastal areas, which has led to the continuous growth of labor costs. The continuous increase of China's trade surplus leads to increasing international trade frictions. Under the background of appreciation of local currency, decline of export tax rebate rate, rise of labor cost and aggravation of international trade friction, China's export prospect in 2008 is not optimistic. Considering that net exports contributed about 40% of China's GDP in the first three quarters of 2007. If exports shrink, it will have a serious impact on China's economic growth and employment
from the perspective of the impact of US policy adjustment on China's capital market, historically, interest rate hikes in developed countries often resulted in the return of international capital from developing countries to developed countries, thus forming a negative impact on the capital market of developing countries. However, this phenomenon will not happen in China at present. The purpose of a large number of "hot money" flowing into China is not to arbitrage the interest rate gap between China and the United States, but to the high yield of China's capital market. Therefore, the narrowing or widening of the interest rate gap between China and the United States will not significantly affect the pattern of international capital inflows into China. On the other hand, if the US dollar depreciates sharply and the RMB appreciates sharply, the resulting international capital flows may push up China's asset prices and aggravate the volatility of asset prices. But so far, the price rise of China's stock market is mainly endogenous rather than exogenous, and the inflow of foreign capital into China is mostly equity hedge funds rather than foreign debt. Therefore, whether the US dollar cuts interest rates or the US dollar depreciation will not change the internal cycle of China's capital market. However, all this is based on the premise that China still adheres to strict capital control. If the capital account is opened rashly to allow speculative capital to enter and leave freely, the domestic capital market will be full of "grass and trees"
under the external force of the devaluation of the US dollar, the continuous appreciation of RMB and the adjustment of China's economic structure have a positive effect on changing the internal and external imbalance of China's economy. However, in the short term, e to the strong complementarity of Sino US trade, Sino US trade surplus is difficult to reverse, and Sino US trade friction will continue to exist. This requires the high-level of the two countries to continuously strengthen negotiations and consultations. At the same time, although the best time for RMB appreciation has been missed, the pace of RMB exchange rate marketization reform can not stop
China should constantly improve its financial system and accelerate the market-oriented reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism
maintaining the US dollar system plays a very important role in maintaining economic hegemony with the US. At present, it can ease the US economic downturn, and other countries pay for the US economic crisis
domestic currency is the world currency. For domestic currency, it has more voice in the world to serve its own economy
the impact of the depreciation of the US dollar on the world economy
the depreciation of the US dollar will directly contribute to the rise of global energy and primary proct prices and bring inflationary pressure to the world. Historical experience shows that the price of crude oil and gold (218.75, - 0.73, - 0.33%) move against the US dollar exchange rate. Since the US dollar is still the monopoly currency in international oil trading, the depreciation of the US dollar leads to the decline of oil revenue of oil procing countries. In this case, on the one hand, oil procing countries still limit proction and guarantee prices while oil prices rise, thus further raising oil prices; On the other hand, in order to promote the diversification of investment, we sell US dollar assets and replace other assets, thus aggravating the depreciation of US dollar. Gold has always been a powerful tool for people to fight against inflation and devaluation of international reserve currency. The period when the gold price soars is often the period when the inflation pressure intensifies or the US dollar depreciates sharply. The rise in global energy and primary proct prices will drive up the prices of other procts. For example, the rise in oil prices has brought about a boom in the development of biofuels in various countries. As corn (1760,16.00,0.92%) and other crops are used to proce ethanol, the price of corn is rising, resulting in the increase in the price of livestock feeding on corn. A large amount of arable land is used to grow corn, which reces the area of arable land for other agricultural procts, thus promoting the rise of global food prices
the depreciation of US dollar and the fluctuation of exchange rate are not concive to the stability of international financial market. The US dollar is in a monopoly position in many aspects of the international financial market, such as foreign exchange transactions, exchange rate formation, bond issuance, financial asset pricing and so on. The continuous depreciation and frequent fluctuation of the US dollar will directly lead to the increase of transactions in the foreign exchange market and the frequent adjustment of the exchange rate relationship between various currencies, which aggravates the turbulence of the foreign exchange market; Secondly, the depreciation of the US dollar will cause the change of the relative value of the assets denominated in US dollar and other currencies, so investors will revalue the value and yield of assets denominated in different currencies, and adjust the portfolio of financial assets accordingly, which will lead to the increase of financial speculation and disordered flow of funds, and affect the stability of the financial market; Thirdly, in order to deal with the subprime crisis, the Federal Reserve's measures of recing interest rates and providing liquidity to the market have further increased the liquidity which has already been inundated in the global market, increased the scale of speculative capital instead of decreasing, and continued to increase the potential risks in the global financial market
the depreciation of the US dollar has a negative impact on the export trade of developed economies, which may trigger the rise of trade protectionism. For example, the depreciation of the US dollar means that the euro will continue to appreciate against the US dollar, which will affect the export competitiveness of euro countries. Two major European aerospace manufacturing groups, Dassault airlines and EADS, have also announced that they will move some of their assembly lines to areas with us dollar as the main currency for proction e to the rise of proction costs settled in Euro e to the depreciation of US dollar and the decrease of prices of procts sold in US dollar, so as to rece labor costs and relieve the pressure of cost growth caused by the appreciation of euro against US dollar, So as to change the disadvantageous situation brought by the continuous depreciation of the US dollar. French President Nicolas de France; Mr. Sarkozy is also worried that if measures are not taken to solve the exchange rate problem caused by the depreciation of the US dollar, it may trigger an "economic war". In particular, companies that rely heavily on the U.S. domestic market will face a heavy blow. The share price of Toyota Motor Co., Ltd. in Japan fell to the lowest level in 14 months in anticipation of the continued depreciation of the U.S. dollar
the depreciation of the US dollar will bring more severe challenges to emerging economies. First, the loss facing emerging economies is the shrinking of foreign exchange reserves. Due to the long-term trade surplus with the United States, emerging economies have accumulated a large number of foreign exchange reserves mainly in US dollar assets. The depreciation of the US dollar means the "evaporation" of their wealth. Second, the depreciation of the US dollar also means that the long-term export dependent economic development model of emerging economies is no longer feasible. With the advancement of economic globalization, global economies are linked with each other and cannot be "decoupled". As one of the main engines of the world economy, the decline of US consumer demand will rece the export and slow down the growth of emerging economies. Thirdly, the devaluation of the US dollar will make a lot of money flow to emerging economies to find investment depressions. A large influx of foreign capital will drive the surge of domestic asset prices in emerging economies and breed economic bubbles. When the U.S. economy recovers and the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen, a large number of funds will withdraw from emerging economies and flow into the United States; Because emerging economies lack perfect financial supervision system, the mechanism to guard against financial risks is weak. When a large amount of capital is withdrawn, it will lead to the collapse of the economic bubble and the financial crisis.
the impact of US dollar depreciation on China's economy
firstly, US dollar depreciation increases the pressure of RMB appreciation and the difficulty of macro-control. Although China implemented the reform of RMB exchange rate mechanism in July 2005, the cumulative appreciation of RMB against the US dollar has exceeded 10%. However, e to the significant depreciation of the US dollar against other major currencies in the world, and the RMB exchange rate is mainly pegged to the US dollar, the RMB has depreciated relative to the major currencies such as the euro and the pound. Countries and regions, including the European Union and Canada, are pressing for RMB appreciation to bear some consequences of the depreciation of the US dollar. Recently, RMB has accelerated the pace of appreciation, and the depreciation of US dollar has undoubtedly become an "important driver"
secondly, the Federal Reserve's rection of the federal funds rate has hindered the Chinese government's macro-control policy. Once the U.S. GDP suddenly decelerates or the real estate market accelerates to decline, the Federal Reserve may continuously rece the federal funds rate, which will cause a large number of short-term capital to flow out of the United States, and China is the ideal destination for these capital. At present, China is in the situation of excess liquidity and rising asset prices. The ideal policy is to increase the interest rate of RMB deposits and loans. Once the people's Bank of China raises the interest rate, the interest rate gap between the people's Bank of China and the federal funds rate of the United States will be further narrowed or inverted, leading to more capital inflows. The narrowing or upside down of the interest rate gap between China and the United States will also cause appreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate
the depreciation of the US dollar will pose a severe test to China's exports. With the increase of RMB appreciation, the inhibitory effect of exchange rate appreciation on export will graally appear. In addition, China has actively adjusted its foreign trade policy in recent years, especially since July 2007, it has reced the export tax rebate rate of many export commodities, which directly reces the profit margin of export enterprises. In recent two years, there has been a shortage of labor in Guangdong and other coastal areas, which has led to the continuous growth of labor costs. The continuous increase of China's trade surplus leads to increasing international trade frictions. Under the background of appreciation of local currency, decline of export tax rebate rate, rise of labor cost and aggravation of international trade friction, China's export prospect in 2008 is not optimistic. Considering that net exports contributed about 40% of China's GDP in the first three quarters of 2007. If exports shrink, it will have a serious impact on China's economic growth and employment
from the perspective of the impact of US policy adjustment on China's capital market, historically, interest rate hikes in developed countries often resulted in the return of international capital from developing countries to developed countries, thus forming a negative impact on the capital market of developing countries. However, this phenomenon will not happen in China at present. The purpose of a large number of "hot money" flowing into China is not to arbitrage the interest rate gap between China and the United States, but to the high yield of China's capital market. Therefore, the narrowing or widening of the interest rate gap between China and the United States will not significantly affect the pattern of international capital inflows into China. On the other hand, if the US dollar depreciates sharply and the RMB appreciates sharply, the resulting international capital flows may push up China's asset prices and aggravate the volatility of asset prices. But so far, the price rise of China's stock market is mainly endogenous rather than exogenous, and the inflow of foreign capital into China is mostly equity hedge funds rather than foreign debt. Therefore, whether the US dollar cuts interest rates or the US dollar depreciation will not change the internal cycle of China's capital market. However, all this is based on the premise that China still adheres to strict capital control. If the capital account is opened rashly to allow speculative capital to enter and leave freely, the domestic capital market will be full of "grass and trees"
under the external force of the devaluation of the US dollar, the continuous appreciation of RMB and the adjustment of China's economic structure have a positive effect on changing the internal and external imbalance of China's economy. However, in the short term, e to the strong complementarity of Sino US trade, Sino US trade surplus is difficult to reverse, and Sino US trade friction will continue to exist. This requires the high-level of the two countries to continuously strengthen negotiations and consultations. At the same time, although the best time for RMB appreciation has been missed, the pace of RMB exchange rate marketization reform can not stop
China should constantly improve its financial system and accelerate the market-oriented reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism
8. There are six main factors influencing exchange rate fluctuation:
first, balance of payments: foreign trade balance plays a decisive role in exchange rate fluctuation. If there is a surplus in foreign trade, the exchange rate of local currency will rise; On the contrary, it will fall. Foreign trade revenue and expenditure directly affect the supply and demand of foreign exchange< Second, inflation is not only directly related to the actual value and purchasing power of money itself, but also related to the external competitiveness of goods and the psychological influence of foreign exchange market. If inflation slows down, the exchange rate of local currency will rise; On the contrary, it will fall
thirdly, the impact of interest rate level on capital flow: under certain conditions, high interest rate level can attract international short-term capital inflow and improve the exchange rate of local currency; Low interest rates are the opposite. In the first half of the 1980s, the US dollar was strong, which was the result of the US high interest rate policy
Fourth: exchange rate policies of various countries: Although exchange rate policies can not change the basic trend of exchange rate, the effect of further measures taken by a country to aggravate the decline or rise of the exchange rate of its own currency according to the trend of its own currency should not be underestimated
fifthly, speculative activities, especially foreign exchange speculative activities of multinational companies. Sometimes it can make the exchange rate fluctuate beyond the expected reasonable range
sixth: political events: major political events in the world, which also have a significant impact on the change of exchange rate
the relationship between the above factors is complex: sometimes, all kinds of factors come together and act at the same time; Sometimes indivial factors play a role; Sometimes, the effects of various factors counteract each other; Sometimes the main effect of one factor is suddenly replaced by another.
first, balance of payments: foreign trade balance plays a decisive role in exchange rate fluctuation. If there is a surplus in foreign trade, the exchange rate of local currency will rise; On the contrary, it will fall. Foreign trade revenue and expenditure directly affect the supply and demand of foreign exchange< Second, inflation is not only directly related to the actual value and purchasing power of money itself, but also related to the external competitiveness of goods and the psychological influence of foreign exchange market. If inflation slows down, the exchange rate of local currency will rise; On the contrary, it will fall
thirdly, the impact of interest rate level on capital flow: under certain conditions, high interest rate level can attract international short-term capital inflow and improve the exchange rate of local currency; Low interest rates are the opposite. In the first half of the 1980s, the US dollar was strong, which was the result of the US high interest rate policy
Fourth: exchange rate policies of various countries: Although exchange rate policies can not change the basic trend of exchange rate, the effect of further measures taken by a country to aggravate the decline or rise of the exchange rate of its own currency according to the trend of its own currency should not be underestimated
fifthly, speculative activities, especially foreign exchange speculative activities of multinational companies. Sometimes it can make the exchange rate fluctuate beyond the expected reasonable range
sixth: political events: major political events in the world, which also have a significant impact on the change of exchange rate
the relationship between the above factors is complex: sometimes, all kinds of factors come together and act at the same time; Sometimes indivial factors play a role; Sometimes, the effects of various factors counteract each other; Sometimes the main effect of one factor is suddenly replaced by another.
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