Virtual monetary policy in Angola

3. Angola used to be a least developed country. The implementation of market economy has a certain instrial and agricultural foundation for the offshore oil drilling platforms in Angola, but the infrastructure has been seriously damaged and the economic development has been greatly affected by years of war. After the civil war ended in 2002, the government shifted its focus to economic recovery and social development. Angola has become the third largest economy in sub Saharan Africa and one of the largest investment attracting countries. Oil is the pillar instry of national economy. In December 2006, Angola joined the organization of petroleum exporting countries. With the rising price of crude oil in the international market, the export revenue of Anyou has increased significantly. According to the statistics of the International Monetary Fund, the average annual economic growth rate of Angola from 2001 to 2010 was 11.1%, ranking first in the world. Inflation dropped from 76.6% in 2003 to 11.4% in 2011. According to the development plan for 2009-2013, the Angolan government will continue to take national reconstruction, economic growth and improvement of people's livelihood as its main tasks, and propose to build 1 million economic housing units and create 320000 jobs
since 2008, affected by the international financial crisis and the sharp drop in crude oil prices in the international market, the economic growth of Angola has slowed down significantly, with an economic growth rate of 2.4% in 2009. The government has taken effective measures to respond positively, and the recovery of international oil prices has stabilized, so the economy of Angola has begun to recover. In 2010 and 2011, the economy grew by 3.4% and 4% respectively. In 2012, Angola launched the "made in Angola program". In October 2012, Ann announced the establishment of a sovereign wealth fund. In 2013, ANC will issue a new version of Kwanzaa currency, which will be equivalent to the current currency. A number of anti-counterfeiting technologies will be added to the new currency, which will graally replace the current currency. It is estimated that the economic growth rate of Angola in 2013 will be 7.1%, the inflation rate will be 9%, and the foreign exchange reserve will exceed 40 billion US dollars[ 1]
Angola's economy is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. However, after the civil war between 1975 and 2002, it is still in the process of reconstruction. Although there are a lot of oil and gas resources, diamonds, hydropower reserves and arable land, Angola is still poor, with one third of the population living on agriculture. In 2002, after 27 years of civil war, the restoration of infrastructure, political and social institutions began. In recent years, e to the rise of international oil prices and the increase of oil proction, Angola's economy has grown rapidly. However, e to corruption and improper management of state-owned enterprises, especially the oil instry, which accounts for 50% of Angola's total domestic proction, 90% of Angola's total exports and 80% of government revenue
although there are a lot of natural resources, the per capita income is still one of the lowest in the world. 85% of the population depends on agriculture. The oil instry is the focus of the economy, accounting for 45% of the gross domestic proct and 90% of the total export value. The rapid economic growth is entirely e to the rising oil prices and the proction capacity of more than 1.4 million barrels per day. The oil proction control is monopolized by Sonangol group, The group is owned by the Angolan government. With a large amount of revenue from oil, the government began to implement the construction plan of roads and infrastructure< In the last 10 years of the colonial period, Angola was one of the main food exporting countries in Africa. However, almost all food now depends on imports. Due to the war situation, many mines were planted in rural areas, which made agricultural activities almost stagnant. Some of the redevelopment plans have been implemented, however, most notably in fisheries. Before 1975, coffee proction was sufficient for domestic use and export, but it has been abandoned e to the civil war. Diamonds are earned by UNITA of Jonas Savimbi through illegal trade. Other resources such as gold mine, fishery, iron ore, coffee and fruit need to be developed
Angola's economy is dominated by agriculture, procing cassava, cereal, banana, plantain, cotton, wood, maize, palm oil, vegetables, hemp, coffee and tobacco. Minerals include diamond, iron, gypsum, asphalt, salt, limestone, phosphate and manganese. There is oil refining instry, mainly located in the coastal zone of Cabinda, and its procts account for more than 75% of the export revenue in recent years. There are also food processing, paper making, pulp, cement and textile instries. There are 8 billion barrels of oil along the coast of Angola and diamonds in the interior. The economic potential is very high. After the end of the civil war, we made a total of more than US $3 billion in trade every year
Angola is rich in undeveloped resources and belongs to Portugal, so it is known as "Brazil of Africa"< Main economic data in 2012

GDP 120.769 billion US dollars
GDP growth rate 7.1%
per capita GDP (calculated by purchasing power parity) 7045 US dollars
currency name Kwanzaa (KZ)
exchange rate 1 US dollar = 95.83 Kwanzaa
inflation rate 9%
unemployment rate 20%

Foreign exchange reserves of US $33.414 billion
total foreign debt of US $21.778 billion
instry
oil and diamond mining are the pillar instries of the national economy. The main instries include cement, building materials, vehicle assembly and repair, textile and clothing, food and aquatic procts processing, etc. It is the second largest oil procer in Africa. In 2011, it proced 600 million barrels of crude oil, with an average daily output of 1.659 million barrels. In 2011, the output value of oil and gas accounted for 45.9% of Angola's GDP. In 2012, the crude oil output was 1.7 million barrels per day, accounting for 43% of Angola's GDP. It is estimated that the crude oil proction in 2013 will be 1.84 million barrels per day. In 2012, the Soyo LNG project in anzail province was put into operation with an annual output of 5.2 million tons. Ann is building a large oil refinery in Lobito, Benguela province. From 2008 to 2011, the average annual growth rate of Angola's geological and mining instry was 11.8%, and the annual growth rate of diamond proction was 2.5%. The original diamond proction was 8.362 million carats in 2010 and 8.33 million carats in 2011, making it the fifth largest diamond procer in the world[ 7]
agriculture
Angola has fertile land, dense rivers and good natural conditions for agricultural development. Before its independence, Angola was not only self-sufficient in food, but also exported a lot, known as the "granary of Southern Africa". Its sisal and coffee exports ranked third and fourth in the world respectively. However, the decades long civil war caused serious damage to the agricultural proction system in Angola, and nearly half of the food supply depended on imports or aid. The arable land area in China is about 35 million hectares, and the arable land area is about 3.5 million hectares by 2014. The agricultural population accounts for about 65% of the national population, and the per capita cultivated land area is 0.18 hectares. The north is a cash crop procing area, mainly planting coffee, sisal, sugarcane, cotton, peanuts and other crops. The central plateau and southwest region are the grain procing areas, mainly planting corn, cassava, rice, wheat, potatoes, beans and other crops. By 2014, the agricultural output value only accounted for 6.4% of the GNP. The average yield of main crops was low, with corn 500 kg / ha, rice 1000 kg / HA and soybean 200 kg / ha. Food is not yet self-sufficient. In 2011, the total grain output was 1.4 million tons, and the vegetable output was 16 million tons. In 2011, the output of agricultural procts increased by 8% compared with 2010, and the output of animal husbandry procts increased by 29%. In 2011, the national grain shortage was about 2 million tons. In 2011, Angola proced 1740 tons of coffee[ 7]
fishery
the fishery resources are rich, the fishing ground operation conditions are good, the wind and waves are small, it can operate all year round, most of the small and medium-sized fishery companies have been privatized. It is rich in lobster, crab and various marine fishes. Fishery is an important instry in Anhui Province, with about 50000 employees. Before independence, the amount of fishing reached 1 million tons per year. In 2012, the total fishery output was 354500 tons, and the annual import volume was 60000 tons[ 1]
animal husbandry
an pasture covers an area of 54 million hectares, and the south is a traditional animal husbandry area. As of August 2011, there were 5.378 million cattle, 2.217 million pigs and 7.921 million sheep, and 14.123 million poultry. Animal husbandry can meet about 50% of domestic beef, mutton and chicken supply[ 1]
tourism
in 2010, there were 425000 tourists visiting Angola, an increase of 16.1% over the previous year, and the tourism revenue was about US $550 million. Tourists mainly came from Europe (40%), America (19.5%) and Africa (18.1%). The number of hotels has increased to 145, with an average occupancy rate of 89%. The investment in the hotel instry has exceeded US $1 billion. Angola has established national parks and protected areas, such as quekama National Park and Ledo Cape tourist area in Luanda Province, kalanra tourist area in Malange Province, Okavango tourist area in kuando kubango Province, kamia National Park in moxico Province, etc. Angola and Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana and Namibia have established cross-border natural environmental protection zones. The black antelope is a unique animal in Angola and a symbol of the country[ 1]
construction instry
Angola is in the period of post-war reconstruction. The market capacity of infrastructure, civil housing and other construction instries is huge, which makes the construction instry occupy an important position in its national economy. Construction contractors from all over the world gather in Angola, mainly including local Angolan enterprises maboque, somague, Mota Engl of Portugal, soaresda Costa, Teixeira Duarte, edifer and ESCOM, odebretch and camargocorr of Brazil ê A et al. Chinese funded enterprises include CITIC construction, Sinohydro, CMEC, China harbor, China Road and bridge, China Electronics, China Railway 4th Bureau, China Railway 13th Bureau, China Railway 20th Bureau, China Railway International, Jiangsu International, Gezhouba, Shandong Expressway, Guangxi hydropower, Guangxi construction engineering, etc. With the influx of a large number of foreign enterprises, the Angolan construction market is facing greater competitive pressure[ 8]
Finance
in February 2013, the national assembly of Angola adopted the 2013 national budget. The total amount is 6.64 trillion Kwanzaa (about 66.36 billion US dollars), which is basically balanced in terms of revenue and expenditure. Among them, 33.5% of the expenditure is in the social sector, 24.6% in public management, 17.8% in procurement and services, and 18% in national defense and public security. Through increasing support for non oil instries, Angola will promote balanced development in all areas of the national economy, strengthen economic diversification, and achieve long-term sustainable development of the country. At the same time, we will continue to control inflation, implement prudent debt and monetary policies, regulate the financial instry, and maintain macroeconomic stability
by the end of 2012, 22 Angolan banks had opened 1155 branches. The main banks are: Bank of savings and credit (BPC), Bank of international credit (BIC), Development Bank of Angola (BFA), investment bank of Angola (BAI), Banco sol, Banco millenium, etc[ 1]
foreign trade
the total amount of foreign trade in 2013 was 97 billion US dollars. The foreign trade in recent years is as follows (unit: US $100 million):

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010


2011

2012

2013

337


444


639


408


506

673

692
709

Import

110

137

210

227


167

202

229
261

difference



227


307




429



181


339


471

46 3
448

in 2012, the procts were mainly exported to China (accounting for 45.8% of Angola's total exports), the United States (13.7%), India (11%), South Africa (4.1%) and other regions (25.4%); The imported procts mainly come from China (accounting for 20.8% of the total imports of Angola in that year), Portugal (19.5%), the United States (7.7%), South Africa (7.1%) and its foreign countries

4. Money demand generated by transaction motivation and prudence motivation is generally used in goods or services transactions, which is called transactional money demand. It is expressed by L1, which is the increasing function of income y, that is, L1 = Li (y); Speculative money demand L2 is related to interest rate, which is a decreasing function of interest rate, that is L2 = L2 (I); The total money demand L is composed of transactional money demand and speculative money demand, that is, l = L1 (y) + L2 (I)
indicating that the total money demand is determined by income and interest rate.

5. In fact, if monetary policy can not be used, there must be some truth.

6. At the central economic work conference held at the end of last year, the central government decided to transform the active fiscal policy implemented in China for nearly seven years into a prudent fiscal policy, thus changing the macro policy from "one positive, one steady" to "two steady". This is another major measure after the central bank's decision to raise interest rates on October 29 last year to deal with China's local overheating economy. If the interest rate increase is a temporary first aid measure, then the change of fiscal policy is strategic. It is necessary to discuss the specific effects of the implementation of macro policies in the past seven years, which can provide reference for our future policy-making and system reform< By the end of 1996, China's deflation policy had successfully brought down the high inflation at that time and realized the "soft landing" of the economy. With the impact of the East Asian financial crisis in 1997, China's economy as a whole was in a state of deflation, In 1998, the Chinese government resolutely decided to launch an active fiscal policy for the first time since the founding of the people's Republic of China, accompanied by a prudent monetary policy. Up to the adjustment of the fiscal policy, this overall positive macro policy has lasted for nearly seven years, and the macro policy that can last for such a long time is rare in the world< On the one hand, a large number of projects invested in long-term construction bonds issued every year directly increase the investment in fixed assets and stimulate economic growth. During the implementation of the positive fiscal policy, the central government issued 100-150 billion yuan of long-term construction treasury bonds every year. From 1998 to July 2004, only 910 billion yuan was issued. But this kind of financial capital expenditure plays a more important role. In China, government funds have a guiding effect. For example, banks compete for loans for the last project of the government. The investment scale formed by "government investment and bank follow-up" is quite amazing

from the perspective of economic theory, although fiscal policy can directly stimulate investment, its effect is often discounted because of certain "crowding out effect". It should be pointed out here that e to specific institutional reasons, China's fiscal policy in this period had almost no "crowding out effect"< (2) the effect of "positive" monetary policy is rather weak

with the start of positive fiscal policy, macro policy is accompanied by steady monetary policy. In the view of relevant departments, the so-called prudent monetary policy is a policy that can prevent both inflation and deflation, that is, a moderate monetary policy. However, in fact, our monetary policy is relatively loose. The main reason is not that we have adopted a prudent monetary policy in name, but that we have violated its original intention in practice, that is, the money supply is still accelerating (the most important manifestation of active monetary policy). On the contrary, ring the implementation of a prudent monetary policy, the broad money supply (M2) has not increased very fast, compared with the previous annual growth rate of more than 20% (or even about 30%), In recent years, the growth rate of M2 has been stable below 15%, which is worthy of the name of "steady"; However, in recent years, China's m2 / GDP has been growing, especially after 1998. It is roughly estimated that the current ratio is about 2, which is rare in the world. Moreover, the people's Bank of China has lowered interest rates eight times since 1996, including five times since 1998

therefore, in these sense, our monetary policy is "positive". The role of monetary policy is manifested in two aspects, that is, with the expansion of money supply, the interest rate decreases, so the consumption of residents increases and the investment of enterprises expands. However, from the practical situation in China, the stimulating effect of these two aspects is not obvious. The main reason should be explained from the excess currency, the following only gives a rough overview from two aspects

from the perspective of money demand. According to Keynesian method, money demand can be divided into transaction demand, prevention demand and speculation demand. In an economy, the change of transaction demand will not be great. It is just a little bigger in the boom and a little less in the depression, but it will not be very different; However, in terms of preventive demand and speculative demand (the sum of the two is equal to that of quasi currency), there are often significant changes, which is the case in China

first of all, there is a great demand for money prevention. There has been a lot of discussion about Preventive Savings in the academic circle, that is, the uncertainty faced by Chinese residents in the transition period is greatly increased, such as unemployment, future pension and children's ecation, which requires a lot of spending, resulting in a large amount of savings, the marginal propensity to consume is constantly decreasing, and the increase of consumption promoted by interest rate rection is very limited

secondly, the high speculative demand for money is perhaps the most noteworthy. As we all know, China's stock market has always been characterized by speculative activities. A large number of private money flows into the stock market to participate in virtual economic activities, so the new money moves back and forth between the securities trading margin account and the current deposit account of enterprises and residents. Some scholars estimate that the proportion of funds entering the stock market in 2001 accounted for 26.32% of that year's m2. It can be seen that the absorption of money by the virtual economy is very amazing. However, because most of the capital is more important than speculation rather than long-term investment, the role of this part of capital entering the stock market for substantial proction is also very limited. Moreover, not only many residents with savings deposits participate in speculation, but also many enterprises themselves invest a lot of proctive capital in the stock market. We know that moderate speculation can activate the stock market, which is concive to the development of the real economy, but excessive speculation can only be a zero sum game, or even a negative sum game. It is just a game of redistributing wealth among speculators, which will not directly promote material proction, There could also be a lot of negative effects

from the perspective of credit, credit policy has always been tightening. The Asian financial crisis has given enough warning to the Chinese government, so the central bank suddenly tightened the credit supervision of commercial banks and implemented the loan responsibility system. Since then, there has been a credit crunch in China. Since 1995, the "deposit gap" in the financial system has further expanded, reaching 4905.9 billion yuan in 2003. Although the credit structure of state-owned banks has changed with the process of marketization, it is not substantial. It's just that we will no longer give loans to inferior state-owned enterprises, but the funds of large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises with good quality are still very rich, and the loans of a large number of small and medium-sized private enterprises are still difficult. As the capital of large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises has always been abundant, the interest rate cut will not stimulate their loan demand too much, so the stimulating effect of interest rate cut on investment is not obvious under this specific system

from the above two aspects, we can see that, on the one hand, the demand for money of economic entities has been high, on the other hand, bank credit has shrunk, so that a large amount of money deposited in banks can not be converted into investment, that is, there are serious problems in the transmission mechanism of our monetary policy, and ultimately the effect of "positive" monetary policy is greatly reced, On the surface, China has almost fallen into the liquidity trap. At this time, looking back at the "crowding out effect" of fiscal policy, it is very obvious. Since a large amount of funds can not be transformed into effective investment in the banking system, the issuance of additional treasury bonds has become a way to convert these funds into a part of the actual total demand through the purchase of treasury bonds. The bank supporting loans for treasury bond investment projects and other social funds also have the same nature, so there is basically no "crowding out effect". But it must be pointed out that this small "crowding out effect" is the result of distortion under the specific system of our country

to sum up, in the past seven years, our active fiscal policy has indeed played an extremely "positive" role, which is of great significance to ensure the economic growth in a specific period; At the same time, although the "positive" monetary policy is not satisfactory and the effect is very weak after the event, the "positive" monetary policy undoubtedly provides an extremely loose monetary environment for the positive fiscal policy to play an effective role, which is also a necessary condition for the positive fiscal policy to play a role under the specific state-owned enterprise system and banking system in China. Therefore, it is undoubtedly wise for the central government to change the active fiscal policy to a steady one, because the effect of the past fiscal policy is obvious, and fading out is also concive to effectively curb the current local economic overheating. Moreover, because our country's interest rate is not yet fully market-oriented, the central bank's role in using monetary policy in macro-control will still be very limited. Therefore, fiscal policy can not fade out immediately, otherwise, the economy will probably lead to recession and fall back into deflation. And this is probably the real reason for the adjustment to be "steady" rather than "tight". From this point of view, it is just right to change from "positive" to "steady". However, the problems of China's economy are largely long-term. Even if we can control the short-term economic fluctuations, the economic growth mode under this specific system can't help worrying people

problems: the economic growth model is still not healthy enough

from the previous detailed analysis, we can clearly feel the problems of China's economic growth model, that is, it is still a "government led" economy, and administrative intervention has increased instead of decreasing, Only seven years of active macro policy can maintain the economic growth (in fact, it is stable and declining), which determines that its growth mode is not healthy enough

just as some scholars have pointed out, our economy has changed from resource constrained to demand constrained since 1997, but we must see that this progress is still quite limited, because demand constraints are not market-oriented constraints, especially in terms of investment demand, which is mainly caused by the credit crunch ordered by the government. And the consumption demand constraint is formed under the investment demand constraint, especially the consumption demand of urban residents. As we all know, after the mid-1990s, China's economy bid farewell to the shortage. Urban residents' consumption of basic consumer goods and rable goods, such as color TV sets, refrigerators and washing machines, has been basically saturated, and they began to turn to the demand for high-end consumer goods, such as cars and housing. However, these procts are just the ones with insufficient market supply, especially the lack of personalization, The shortage of supply is directly related to the credit tightening policy. At the same time, e to SARS in 2003, the credit policy suddenly became loose, which immediately triggered an investment boom in steel, electricity, cement and other raw materials instries and real estate instry, directly leading to local overheating of the economy. But this is not a fever without any reason, but a concentrated release after years of repression, which is the inevitable result of strong consumer demand as a driving force

on the other hand, e to the active fiscal policy, a large number of national debt projects are launched, and a large number of bank supporting loans are involved, but these projects are feasible

7. Ha, this question is similar to our final exam, only we have one more fiscal policy<

China's monetary policy:
in order to rece the impact of the financial crisis on China's economy, China has resolutely implemented a moderately loose monetary policy since the second half of last year. Generally speaking, all sectors of the society still hold a positive attitude towards monetary policy, and the strength of the policy is relatively appropriate. However, there is a great possibility of stagflation in the world economy and China's economy in the future. In the future, China's monetary policy needs to continue to maintain "moderate easing" and carry out structural fine-tuning, so as to respond to the potential stagflation risk in advance and take preventive measures< In the depression period, expansionary monetary policy can increase money supply, rece interest rate and stimulate consumption and investment
2. In the boom period, tightening monetary policy reces money supply, increases interest rates, and reces consumption and investment
in a word, in a depression, we need to provide timely help, not make things worse. In times of prosperity, we should pour water to cool down, not add fuel to the fire< Second, policy tools
1. Open market business
2. Rediscount rate policy
3. Adjusting the legal reserve rate
since September 2008, China has been recing the legal reserve rate
3. Effect:
1. The effect of loose monetary policy is immediate, and the macro economy stops falling and stabilizes in the short term
in the period of economic depression, the implementation of loose monetary policy can rece interest rates and increase investment. Slow down the economic downturn and balance the total supply and demand
in the first quarter, the total investment in fixed assets increased by 28.8% year-on-year, 4.2 percentage points faster than that in the same period of last year. The total retail sales of domestic social consumer goods increased by 15.0% in the first quarter compared with the same period last year. Excluding price factors, the actual growth was 15.9%, 3.6 percentage points faster than the same period last year. Even the worst performing foreign trade data showed signs of improvement. The year-on-year decline of import and export in March was significantly narrower than that in the previous two months, and the foreign trade surplus rebounded strongly in that month. In addition, PMI has rebounded for five consecutive months, and the growth rate of instries above designated size has rebounded month by month. Obviously different from the bottom of major economies such as the United States, Europe and Japan, most of China's indicators began to stabilize and recover, which also supported a good rebound in the stock market and the so-called "little spring" in the real estate market< In the period of economic depression, the implementation of loose monetary policy can increase ad, avoid excessive oversupply, and rece deflation.
China's CPI declined all the way after reaching a high of 8.7% in February last year, and the decline continued to expand. In the fourth quarter of last year, after the country resolutely implemented the "moderately loose" monetary policy, the excessively fast downward trend of prices was graally curbed. After reaching the lowest point of - 1.6% in February this year, the price rose to - 1.2% in March, and the decline narrowed significantly. Although it fell to - 1.5% again in April, it did not break the recent low. Monetary policy plays a key role in easing the pressure of deflation. China's excessive lending not only greatly stimulates China's virtual financial market and stabilizes the economy, but also drives the recovery of global commodity market<

in 2009, we will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, appropriately increase the total amount of money and credit, comprehensively use policy tools such as interest rate, deposit reserve ratio and open market operation to flexibly adjust the supply and demand of funds, and use innovative financial tools to maintain the reasonable liquidity of the market when necessary
hope to adopt