Virtual currency strategy
On February 25, the development and Reform Commission of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region issued the "on ensuring the completion of the & lt; The fourteenth five year plan; Several safeguard measures for al control of energy consumption (Draft) (hereinafter referred to as "several measures") are open to the public for opinions{ RRRRR}
a mine owner who has built a mine in Inner Mongolia said to the surging news: & lt; Now it's time to limit energy consumption, and we haven't received the notice to close it& rdquo;
"several measures" can be regarded as the continuation of Inner Mongolia's many years' efforts to clean up the virtual currency mining. Inner Mongolia is sparsely populated and rich in wind energy. Because of abundant land and cheap electricity price, Inner Mongolia has become a virtual currency mining destination; Main positions; One
the virtual currency mining instry was also included in the list of eliminated instries. On April 8, 2019, the national development and Reform Commission issued the guidance catalogue for instrial structure adjustment (2019 version, draft for comments), which defined the virtual currency mining as an item not marked with the elimination period or elimination plan, which was explicitly or immediately eliminated by the national instrial policy. In November, the national development and Reform Commission issued the guidance catalogue for instrial structure adjustment (2019 Edition), which was originally listed in the list of eliminated instries; Virtual currency mining activities & quot; Was deleted
although some people think that this change may mean that the legitimacy or possibility of virtual currency mining has been recognized, judging from the contents of the announcement issued by Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the direction of its liquidation and withdrawal has not changed
The contract transaction of digital currency is not safe. There are still many loopholes in the digital currency trading platform, for example, the most common ones are as follows:
1. Denial of service attack
denial of service attack is the most important attack against the digital currency trading platform at present. Through the denial of service attack, the attacker makes the trading platform unable to access normally, while the user cannot accurately distinguish the attack degree, It often leads to panic asset transfer, which brings some loss
Due to the different national conditions, political, economic and external environment, the methods and means to deal with the crisis are quite different. However, the outbreak of currency crisis under economic globalization has obvious commonness, and the outstanding performance is "infectivity". Therefore, some effective measures to deal with the crisis have important reference significance for other countries
(1) control of capital outflow
when there is a rapid and large-scale capital outflow, one is that the government unilaterally declares to control the capital outflow. Japan, a big developed financial country, has passed legislation to stipulate the power of relevant departments to regulate capital transactions in case of extraordinary circumstances (including the difficulty in maintaining the balance of payments, the sharp fluctuation of yen exchange rate, and the adverse impact of capital movement on finance or capital market). Although the relevant laws have been revised several times, the general principle of "extraordinary circumstances" is still retained. The economic and academic circles support Malaysia's decision to control capital outflow ring the crisis, but believe that the long-term adverse consequences of the measures to control capital outflow are greater than the short-term benefits, because it will encourage domestic tax evasion and capital flight, and combat the enthusiasm of foreign investors. Second, IMF and other international organizations should mediate and announce "debt freeze" to prevent creditors (international banks and investors) from withdrawing their capital unilaterally; Establish a mechanism that enables creditors and debtors to share losses in an appropriate way< (2) local currency control
for example, in order to prevent international speculators from attacking the Malaysian currency ringgit, the Malaysian government announced the foreign exchange control on September 1, 1998: the exchange of ringgit by foreigners and the transfer of funds between foreign accounts must be approved by the central bank; All transactions of financial assets can only be concted through authorized savings institutions; Foreign funds need to hold shares in the stock market for one year before they can cash their shares out of the country. Since ringgit can not be traded abroad, speculators can not accumulate a huge amount of ringgit, so Malaysia is free from speculative attacks. Monetary control measures not only curbed the outflow of ringgit, but also made a large amount of capital flow back in the short term, prevented the external financial storm from spreading to the domestic economy, stabilized the exchange rate of ringgit and domestic consumer prices, and created an environment concive to economic recovery
(3) rapid financial adjustment and strong financial supervision
in 1999, in order to quell the financial turmoil, the Brazilian government first raised the bank interest rate to prevent the massive outflow of funds and stabilize the financial market. When the market is relatively stable, the interest rate will be lowered in time to rece the impact on enterprises. We will investigate financial institutions and enterprises that participate in stock market speculation and violate regulations in the financial turmoil, and impose economic sanctions on those financial institutions and enterprises that are found to have violated regulations. The central bank also announced a series of measures to strengthen the management of the financial market, stipulating that no bank or enterprise shall jointly operate or trade investment funds, no bank shall guarantee the funds managed by itself, and no financial institution shall guarantee its business with bonds issued by itself, All banks and financial institutions are required to report to the central bank on the implementation of the above provisions on a quarterly basis. Strengthen the supervision of foreign exchange transactions, make the transactions transparent, and limit the time and quantity of foreign exchange transactions. The implementation of these measures has effectively cracked down on the illegal acts of financial institutions and played a great role in stabilizing the financial market< (4) timely and one-step currency adjustment
judging from the currency crisis so far, few monetary authorities have won a complete victory in the competition with market speculation. Even a few victories (such as Hong Kong in the East Asian financial crisis) have paid a heavy price. Therefore, once the currency crisis breaks out, the rational choice is: timely and one-step currency adjustment. The Southeast Asian crisis has devalued the currencies of relevant countries (regions) by 15% - 30% in three months. This shows that: first, even with sufficient reserves (Mexico had $30 billion in 1994), it is futile to try to stabilize the financial market without devaluing the currency; Second, it is necessary to devalue immediately, rather than graally, to avoid wasting foreign exchange reserves< (5) to prevent the chain failure of commercial banks
in order to prevent the malignant crisis of chain failure of banks, Mexico has taken the following countermeasures: the government requires commercial banks to increase the reserve ratio for bad debts and enhance their own "disaster resistance" ability. The central bank provides a certain amount of foreign exchange and local currency to commercial banks to ensure their minimum payment ability, especially to maintain their ability to repay foreign debts, so as to prevent a bank from causing a greater financial crisis and causing a larger scale of capital flight e to its inability to repay foreign debts on time; Invest funds to support enterprises to reschele their debts, mainly those owed to banks, so as to avoid bank crisis caused by bad debts; Intervene the commercial banks that are going to close down in time, take over directly by the Ministry of Finance and the central bank when necessary, and prohibit depositors from settling the run in advance; Establish and perfect the bank deposit protection fund, which is a semi official institution to provide risk protection for commercial banks; We should limit commercial banks' overdraft from the central bank, encourage commercial banks to expand domestic savings, rece their dependence on foreign capital, and rece external risks< In order to strictly control the government's expenditure and rece the fiscal deficit, after the currency crisis, the Brazilian government announced to cut the federal government's expenditure, suspend the recruitment and rection of public servants, suspend the promotion and promotion of all national civil servants, and suspend the increase of civil servants' wages and other funds; Strict control of public sector procurement. Brazil's central budget deficit is mainly caused by adjusting taxes to increase revenue and excessive social welfare expenditure. The Congress passed a bill to reform the welfare system and increase taxes, raising the rate of welfare tax on serving and retired public officials; A welfare tax will be imposed on servicemen to rece government spending on social welfare. At the same time, the central bank also decided to lower the financial operation tax rate imposed on foreign capital in order to attract foreign capital< (7) strive for the understanding and support of the domestic people
currency crisis usually reflects the confidence crisis of foreign investors and the domestic people. It is very necessary to stabilize the confidence of foreign investors, especially strive for the understanding and support of the domestic people for the anti crisis policy, so as to effectively alleviate and overcome the crisis. For example, after the Southeast Asian financial crisis spread to South Korea, South Korea's officials and people were united as one. Officials and people enthusiastically donated gold, silver, jewelry and foreign exchange to the country and offered suggestions and suggestions, which played an extremely important role in quickly stabilizing the economic situation, getting rid of the crisis and restoring the economy of South Korea< (8) necessary administrative control
administrative control is certainly not the best choice, but at the critical moment of worsening crisis, the necessity of administrative control is beyond doubt. Inflation is an important result and manifestation of the currency crisis. To stabilize people's minds and political situation, it is necessary to stabilize prices. Therefore, the government should control the rise of prices and wages at an appropriate time, crack down on hoarding, regulate the increase of prices of goods and services that directly affect people's lives, and provide some foreign exchange to stabilize prices, We should take severe measures to crack down on malicious speculation that interferes with market order, including financial market order. Although administrative regulation can quickly stabilize social order, it will damage the market operation mechanism< (9) the rapid start of regional cooperation mechanism
in order to effectively deal with the occurrence and spread of the currency crisis, the relevant regional and bilateral cooperation and coordination mechanism should be started quickly. The European Economic and Monetary Union and the North American Free Trade Area have fully demonstrated from both positive and negative aspects that regional cooperation can obtain financial support in time to prevent the decline of trust and stabilize market turbulence, which is more effective than international cooperation or accepting IMF rescue. After the painful lessons of the financial crisis, East Asian countries are increasingly close to each other's economic and financial cooperation, including strengthening negotiations between central banks and currency swap agreements, which will significantly enhance the region's ability to prevent and deal with currency crises in the future
based on China's current macroeconomic and microeconomic foundation and the impact of RMB free floating on China's economy under the condition of capital opening, in order to avoid and alleviate this impact, we should pay attention to the following aspects in the arrangement of RMB exchange rate system:
properly control the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate, establish a perfect financial system, In order to deal with the financial crisis that may be caused by capital opening; To create necessary internal and external environment for improving the ability of economic subject to resist risks; In order to strengthen the adaptability of economic entities to the free floating of RMB exchange rate and improve the macro-control ability of the central bank's foreign exchange market, the capital market should be graally liberalized and the control of RMB exchange rate trading and floating should be relaxed
6.1.1 deepen the marketization of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism
at present, the imperfect RMB exchange rate formation mechanism leads to the phenomenon of RMB External Appreciation and internal devaluation. The RMB exchange rate can not reflect the real market price, the central bank is in the passive position of market transactions and faces greater risks. Therefore, we should deepen the marketization process of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism. ① According to the changes of macroeconomic indicators, the Central Bank specifies a reasonable range of exchange rate fluctuations to enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate fluctuations. ② Reform the foreign exchange settlement and sales system of the current
banks to make the foreign exchange settlement and sales of enterprises and institutions from compulsory to flexible
6.1.2 properly control the frequency and range of RMB exchange rate fluctuations
from the previous analysis, we can see that RMB exchange rate fluctuations affect trade and direct investment, and then affect prices and other macroeconomic variables, which have an impact on China's economy. The rise and fall of RMB exchange rate have a significant impact on import and export
trade; The exchange rate level has a negative impact on net exports and foreign direct investment. In order to avoid the negative impact of RMB Fluctuation, we should control the degree and frequency of RMB exchange rate fluctuation. Control the excessive fluctuation of RMB exchange rate; We should control the frequency of RMB exchange rate fluctuations to avoid negative expectations of economic entities and influence economic development
6.1.3 improve the anti risk ability of Finance
the opening of capital account requires the financial sector, especially the banking system, to have a high anti risk ability. This requires banks to achieve a minimum capital adequacy ratio of 8% according to the Basel Accord. Secondly, we should establish the financial supervision system under the new situation and strengthen the risk management of commercial banks
6.1.4 cultivate a sound foreign exchange trading market
improve the ability of economic entities to cope with frequent foreign exchange fluctuations, and cultivate a sound foreign exchange trading market. First of all,
let more economic entities participate in foreign exchange transactions, break the existing monopoly mechanism of foreign exchange market transactions, and cultivate the competitive adaptability of enterprises with financial institutions. Secondly, increase foreign exchange trading tools to meet the requirements of foreign exchange hedging
and rece the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on enterprises. Give full play to foreign exchange trading means, such as foreign exchange forward trading,
swap trading, repo trading, foreign currency futures options, etc
6.2 upgrade the instrial structure and improve the export proct structure
according to the previous analysis, RMB appreciation does not significantly rece net exports, and the change of RMB exchange rate has little impact on China's trade balance, so it is difficult to achieve the goal by adjusting RMB exchange rate to improve China's trade imbalance, We must combine some instrial policies. To change this situation, we need to change the domestic economic growth mode from extensive growth to intensive growth. At present, China's instrial structure is unreasonable. Most of the enterprises are in the labor-intensive and low technology level,
because a large number of procts are at the end of the value chain and generally lack of core technology, independent brands and marketing network, China is still a major importer of high-tech procts. From China's trade commodity structure, we can see that the elasticity of foreign demand for export of labor-intensive procts is relatively small, and China is facing fierce competition from developing countries, while the elasticity of domestic demand for imported high-tech procts and machinery and equipment is relatively high, which is not concive to the improvement of China's foreign trade< Therefore, it is urgent to optimize the instrial structure, adjust the export proct structure and improve the added value of procts. First of all, in the existing export proct chain, occupy a high value-added proction link. Secondly, the development of high salary technology is mainly aimed at the technological transformation of traditional instries. Through the development and application of new equipment, new technology and new formula, the competitive advantage of high-tech procts can be improved. We should vigorously develop knowledge intensive and technology intensive instries, transform traditional instries with high salary technology, increase the added value of export procts, enhance non price competitiveness, and improve the ability of sustainable development, so as to maintain and expand China's export market. At the same time, to enhance the international competitiveness of China's instry,
we should plan and deploy China's instrial development strategy from the perspective of global instrial development.
the direct reason for the overheated economy or the high inflation is that the total social demand grows too fast, which forces the money supply to grow too fast. The money demand caused by the excessive growth of fixed assets, the money demand caused by the excessive growth of social consumption funds, the money demand caused by the poor efficiency of enterprises requiring a large amount of working capital to pay in advance, and so on, have forced the central bank to issue super economic issues year after year, forming the current serious inflation pressure. Moreover, the money purchasing power accumulated by the whole society in recent years has not been fully digested, There are 728.8 billion yuan of cash in circulation in the national market. Social and economic living conditions can reflect the formulation and implementation of monetary policy to the greatest extent. It is a rational choice that the newly promulgated central bank law regards the stability of currency value as the ultimate goal of monetary policy. However, in terms of the current situation of economic development, in the process of achieving this goal, we will encounter many problems. We still need to create conditions, implement effective countermeasures and purify the environment, so as to achieve the goal of monetary policy< Second, the main difficulties to achieve the goal of monetary policy
1. Economic growth is manifested in the accumulation of value created by workers engaged in the proction of material materials for the society. Theoretically speaking, RMB is the bargaining chip of commodity circulation which has no value in itself, and its excessive issuance will not bring substantial economic growth. However, the rapid economic growth is directly related to the excessive issuance of money. To maintain high-speed economic growth, it is necessary to have a relatively loose monetary environment, so that it can act as the "first driving force". When the economic structure tends to be reasonable, we can still digest the currency issued for needs; On the contrary, some money will stay in circulation, leading to price rise and inflation. Some experts have pointed out that to curb inflation, we must first control currency issuance and second control prices. Because the rapid economic growth is realistic to the expansion of money demand, we must control the money supply to adapt to the economic growth. We must not sacrifice the stability of currency value in exchange for the rapid economic growth
2. Since the 1980s, all previous overheated economies are related to the expansion of fixed asset investment. Since the 1990s, the national economy has entered a new round of growth fluctuations. Through blind expansion of investment, all regions compete to keep pace with each other, resulting in the investment scale exceeding the affordability of the economy. Investment in fixed assets increased by 37% in 1992 over the previous year, and by another 50.6% in 1993 over the previous year. 1994 is an important year to control inflation. We should have greatly reced the scale of investment, thus slowing down the speed of economic growth and recing the money supply. However, the actual investment has greatly exceeded the planned amount of 13000 billion yuan, reaching more than 1590 billion yuan. At present, there are few investment projects that do not exceed the budget, and they generally exceed the budget by 40% to 50%. In view of this, it can be said that the expansion of investment scale has become the driving force of abnormal currency issuance
in recent three years, China's investment rate (the ratio of investment to GNP) has been more than 40%, and a considerable part of inefficient investment has caused a lot of waste and increased the stock of social money. Some of the investment has also entered the development zones and the hot real estate sector, expanding the "gap" and aggravating the "bottleneck" state, which has become a hard wound of economic development, There are many difficulties in the operation of the monetary policy aimed at stabilizing the value of the currency
3. Consumption funds grow too fast. The national income distribution continued to incline to indivials, resulting in the excessive growth of consumption funds. In 1994, the cash expenditure of consumption funds and the net expenditure on rural areas were 1117.5 billion yuan, an increase of 40.5% over the end of last year. The annual expenditure on Administration and management was 470.1 billion yuan, an increase of 36.4% over the previous year, and the net expenditure on rural areas was 475.7 billion yuan, an increase of 15% over the previous year. The management of consumer funds has always been an important means for banks to implement monetary policy. Excessive growth, whether personal or social groups, is through the credit and cash channels of financial institutions, which will eventually lead to and promote the sharp rise of market prices and contribute to the escalation and spread of inflation. The excessive growth of consumer funds, like a t, leads to excessive issuance of money, which is very disadvantageous to the realization of the ultimate goal of monetary policy
4. At present, the vast majority of large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises have not become real enterprises e to the lack of the ability of independent operation, self financing, self-restraint and self-development, which leads to unrestricted capital demand and use. Under the drive of interest competition, we should expand the proction scale with additional investment. However, the non-performing debts of enterprises and the non-performing loans of banks are two aspects of the same problem. The high investment affected by the impulse of quantitative expansion will inevitably bring difficulties to the realization of the ultimate goal of monetary policy
e to the general lack of market concept, loan, proction and overstock, blind project occupation of working capital and heavy social burden, more than 90% of the working capital depends on bank loans, and in the state of poor economic benefits, not only can they not repay on time, but also continue to increase new loans to maintain their livelihood. As a result, it reces the speed of capital turnover, expands the scale of credit, and increases the money supply. In the process of system transformation, the relationship between banks and enterprises has experienced friction, which is manifested in the limited supply of funds and the unconstrained demand for funds. In 1994, the loans increased by 514.8 billion yuan, nearly 31 billion yuan more than that of the previous year. Compared with GDP, such a capital environment is loose, but enterprises still feel the shortage of funds. According to statistics, there are about 120 billion yuan of loans that state-owned enterprises are unable to repay, accounting for 40% of the total bank loans and 25% of the total social funds. This is not only a problem of bank enterprise relationship under the new situation, but also a big problem to be solved in the process of "maintaining the stability of currency value and promoting economic growth"
5. Poor management of banks themselves. At present, the economic system and management form of China's banks do not meet the requirements of the development of market economy, the financial regulations and management system are not perfect, and the problems existing in the operation and management process are the key factors that make it difficult to operate the monetary policy objectives. First of all, the central bank lacks the ability to formulate and implement monetary policy independently, does not form the mechanism of supervision and management function, and cannot adjust the money stock independently; Secondly, the professional banks compete blindly and lack complete scientific and effective methods in loan management. They pay more attention to loan than to collection, which makes it easy to loan and difficult to collect. In 1994, there were 707.8 billion yuan of bad debts and loans for enterprises, which was 120% of 578.1 billion yuan of currency in circulation. This is the result of the administrative characteristics of bank behavior. If the huge amount of loans can not be recovered, the state is bound to make up for it by expanding the currency issuance, which will inevitably promote inflation and affect the stability of the currency value. Thirdly, the quality of credit assets declined. For a long time, professional banks have been troubled by the distorted system and lagging management, not only the quality of credit assets is low, but also the burden of loans is heavy. Every year, a large amount of loans are mostly occupied by the "three funds", resulting in the precipitation of loans. Some enterprises take advantage of the imperfect financial laws and regulations to open accounts, make loans, split funds and mp public funds. At present, the vast majority of the losses of more than 300 billion yuan of state-owned enterprises are bank credit funds, which directly affects the stability of currency value. Finally, the overall quality of credit personnel is not high. The quality of loan decision-making and management affects the quality of credit assets. However, from the perspective of the political and ideological quality and professional ethics of the credit personnel, in the environment of corruption has been dyed into credit corruption, in the open and serious lending relationship, there are hidden private interest transactions between the two sides. When the enterprise can not meet the capital demand through open and legal channels, it will use non-public and improper channels and means, and even move the credit personnel with interests; From the perspective of professional quality, the composition of existing credit personnel is complex, and a considerable number of them lack professional knowledge, which is difficult to meet the needs of implementing loan management and supervision, provide accurate basis for leaders' decision-making, and implement monetary policy easily< br />
1. The government adjusts the price of related precious metals and increases the supply
(2) to choose the issuing system of currency standard instead of plicate system3. If it comes to the phenomenon of bad money expelling good money in society, only by making the information completely transparent can it be solved
the premise of bad money expelling good money is information asymmetry, which can't be eradicated, because information can't reach complete symmetry. When information flows fully, it can alleviate this phenomenon when it can distinguish bad money from good money
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extended information:
historical evolution
in the 16th century England, precious metals were not enough for coinage, so other metal components had to be added to the newly minted currency. Therefore, there were two kinds of currency in the market at that time, one was the currency without impurities, and the other was the currency added with other metals
although the two currencies have the same legal value, people can identify them, store the currency without impurities and take the currency with impurities for trading. Therefore, the good money on the market is graally stored and reced circulation, leaving only the bad money in the market Good money here refers to money without impurities.)
another kind of situation in which bad money drives out good money will happen under the gold and silver plicate system. The gold silver double standard was adopted for a long time by Britain, the United States and France from the 18th century to the 19th century. Since the exchange rate between gold and silver coins is set by the government through law, it will remain stable for a long time, but the relative price of gold and silver in the market will fluctuate e to the law of supply and demand
if the actual value of gold exceeds the legal exchange rate, people will melt the gold coins (good coins) with greater value into gold nuggets, and then sell the gold and exchange it for silver coins (bad coins). After this process, more silver coins can be exchanged than gold coins for silver coins. Sometimes people even repeat this process many times, so the good money on the market is increasingly melted and reced, and the bad money will flood the market and seriously disrupt the market order
in a word, inflation is a very complex economic phenomenon, and its causes are various, so we need to take different countermeasures according to the causes and suit the right medicine to the case. This kind of remedy is not simply based on the cause analysis, nor can it mechanically and rigidly other people's or their own past experience. And suit the remedy to the case also should give priority to or give priority to a certain scheme, at the same time, combine with other comprehensive treatment schemes. That is to say, the control of inflation is a systematic project, and the ideal effect can be achieved only when all the control schemes cooperate with each other.