Virtual currency gains

1.

bitcoin's surge is just a short-term phenomenon. In the past, bitcoin was really hot, which made many people crazy, but its hot period has passed. At present, the sudden rise of bitcoin is obviously a kind of hype by some people who hold a lot of bitcoin. Their purpose is also very pure, through this way to attract more retail investors to invest, and then they start to make crazy profits. Don't be attracted by the heat

in fact, when it comes to bitcoin, many people may not know what it is, but the only thing people value is that it can make money, which reflects the phenomenon that people blindly follow the trend of investment. The risk of investment market is big, but the profit is also big, which requires our investors to recognize the hero. Let your own investment knowledge enrich, so that you know investment like the palm of your hand, and you won't be blind

the popularity of bitcoin will soon disappear, and it must not be speculated and invested by some people

the era of bull market has long passed, so investment should be cautious

2.

After a year, the RMB's soaring has aroused great concern again

offshore RMB surged more than 1600 points for two consecutive days, breaking through 6.80, while onshore RMB also surged nearly 700 points yesterday, which surprised the market

the analysis shows that the sharp rise of RMB in this round may stabilize RMB in a short period of time, and have a far-reaching impact on gold, stock, bond and real estate markets in the medium and long term

Ren Zeping: good for stock market and gold. As the negative factors ebb, the dawn suddenly appears, which is good for the stock market and gold

on January 20, 2017, trump officially took office. There are many uncertainties in the implementation of his economic policies. The market readjusts its expectations, the dollar index falls back, and there may be opportunities for gold in the first and second quarters

with the reversal of trump effect, easing the pressure on emerging markets, the central bank's increasing liquidity investment, the ebb of money shortage, the maintenance of exchange rate stability, the coordination of regulators to solve the "radish chapter" incident, and the acceleration of supply side reform, the negative factors subsided, the bond market stabilized, and the stock market benefited from the improvement of corporate profitability and supply side reform, with solid fundamentals, The pullback provides buying opportunities, and anti inflation, beneficial reform and oversold growth stocks are the main lines in the future

Qu Qing: good for bond market? Not necessarily

on Thursday, offshore RMB continued to appreciate significantly, which led to the appreciation of onshore RMB, and also led to the rebound of treasury bond futures. There is indeed a view in the market that the pressure of RMB devaluation is greater in the early stage, and the pressure of exchange rate on interest rate leads to the rebound of interest rate; So if the RMB starts to appreciate, it means there is room for interest rates to go down. But Qu Qing, chief bond analyst at Huachuang securities, disagrees. He thinks:

first of all, the reason for the appreciation of offshore RMB lies in the high capital interest rate, which leads to the reversal of short power. In essence, it is to stabilize the exchange rate with high interest rate. So high interest rate is the precondition of exchange rate stability, not the result of exchange rate stability

secondly, the appreciation of offshore RMB is only a staged rebound in the trend of depreciation, and does not reverse the market's expectation of RMB depreciation, so the constraint of RMB depreciation on the downward trend of interest rate in the past still exists

finally, we have analyzed before that the real way to ease the bond pressure is to see the self stabilization of RMB with improved fundamentals. For example, the situation of excessive liquidity has been eased and the economy has stabilized. At present, it is the passive appreciation after the high interest rate, which means that the bond interest rate, as a victim of exchange rate stability, does not have downward space

Of course, it is undeniable that the strong rebound of RMB in the short term does ease the pressure on bonds emotionally. However, from the rhythm point of view, the graal appreciation of RMB is over, and the pressure of bond adjustment may increase again

Jiang Chao: to ease the pressure of devaluation, we should control the house price for a long time

Jiang Chao, chief economist of Haitong Securities, has a more long-term vision. In his view, the RMB may maintain periodic stability in the short term. But in the long run, stabilizing the exchange rate depends on restraining the real estate bubble and accelerating the reform. P>

compares China's economic growth, surplus and interest rate. China is better than the US in terms of economic growth, surplus and interest rate. But in the past few years, China's housing price has risen far beyond that of the United States, and the total market value of Chinese real estate has exceeded that of the United States, but the economic volume is only about half of that of the United States, which means that the pressure of foreign exchange depreciation mainly stems from the real estate bubble. p>

as China has a huge trade surplus with the United States, trump said that he would impose a 45% tariff on China and list China as an exchange rate manipulator, which means that if China's exchange rate with a huge surplus continues to depreciate, there will be more and more external political pressure

In the long run, in order to solve the pressure of RMB devaluation, we must strictly control the growth rate of house prices, increase the strength of supply side reform, and find new impetus for economic growth

Han Huishi: the key is to reverse the long-term depreciation expectation.

Han Huishi, a RMB researcher at China Construction Bank, also believes that it is easy to strike short-term RMB bears like a storm, but it is difficult to completely reverse the expectation of RMB depreciation that has pervaded the market for nearly three years by relying on short-term behavior

once enterprises and indivials understand the current rapid rise of RMB as an expedient measure in a special period or a purely accidental phenomenon in the market, the depreciation expectation will be easily stimulated

for the balance of payments security of big countries, it is of limited significance to focus on how many short positions can be broken by the soaring RMB in the short term

it is really important to maintain the consistency of policies, clearly convey the two-way fluctuation rules of RMB to the market through the fluctuation of RMB, and make the market no longer rely on the past depreciation experience to guess the future trend

(the above answers were published on January 6, 2017, and the current relevant purchase policies are subject to the actual situation)

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3. Some short candy give away, hurry up

4. RMB did not rise sharply, but it was just a technical rebound in the process of decline. Theoretically speaking, currency depreciation is more beneficial to the stock market

5.

The surge of offshore RMB is bad for some export enterprises, but good for the stock market as a whole. Rising prices will attract more capital into the domestic market, which is good for the stock market and real estate

in addition, it should be noted that the rise and fall need to look at the long-term trend, whether the future outlook is appreciation or depreciation, and the impact of short-term rise and fall is very limited

extended data :

the weakening of the US dollar and the bottoming of the domestic economy provide a fundamental environment for the short-term stability of RMB. As the negative factors ebb, the dawn suddenly appears, which is good for the stock market and gold

Operating RMB deposit business outside China. The business in which both parties are non residents is called offshore financial business. Offshore market provides offshore financial business: the business in which both parties are non residents is called offshore financial business

Generally speaking, the rise of offshore RMB is appreciation, while the fall is depreciation. The rise of offshore RMB is good for the stock market, but it is not absolute. As an investor, we must pay attention to the relevant risks

6. RMB appreciation is basically good for import enterprises and bad for export enterprises,
but because China is a country where domestic demand is greater than external demand, it is basically good for most enterprises,
because RMB appreciation makes RMB more valuable, and the US dollar is the national currency,
in this way, more things can be bought from abroad, So it's good for China's economy,
RMB appreciation is good for papermaking, aviation, real estate and so on,
because the raw materials of papermaking are imported,
the money for buying aircraft in aviation instry is basically money for purchase, and the unit for pricing is US dollars,
real estate has the property of RMB assets,

7. Hello! The impact of RMB appreciation on the stock market
since China's reform and opening up, especially after China's accession to the WTO, the pace of China's economic integration with the global economy is accelerating, enterprises are more and more closely connected with the international market, and are more and more affected by the international commodity market and financial market. In recent two years, e to the rapid expansion of domestic economy, China has become more and more dependent on the international raw material market and proct sales market. The significant change of exchange rate will have a great impact on the performance of listed companies and the trend of the whole stock market
when the international hot money expects RMB appreciation, it will try to buy RMB or RMB assets. Because RMB is not a freely convertible currency at present, there are still some difficulties in purchasing RMB. However, it is much easier to buy RMB assets, so it is a good plan to buy stocks.
RMB appreciation affects the stock market more through the impact on listed companies. The impact on listed companies is mainly transmitted through the import and export chain. The enterprises with greater dependence on import and export are more sensitive to the change of RMB exchange rate. The specific impacts are as follows:
1. Aviation: it generally has huge foreign currency debts, mainly in US dollars or Japanese yen, and RMB appreciation will bring relatively large exchange earnings. In addition, the appreciation of RMB will lead to a corresponding decrease in the cost of aviation oil and materials. For example, China Southern Airlines has the largest amount of foreign debt, which is mainly in US dollars, equivalent to 32 billion yuan. RMB appreciation of 2%, the company e to exchange earnings, earnings per share increased 0.06 to 0.08 yuan
2. Petrochemical instry: as a big oil importing country, China's imported oil accounts for a large part of the cost of petrochemical procts. If RMB appreciation, it will have a positive impact on the petrochemical instry as a whole. At present, Sinopec, Shanghai Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical Import billions of yuan of crude oil every year, and the appreciation of RMB will rece the cost of imported crude oil
3. Textile and clothing instry: China is a big textile exporter, and the appreciation of RMB will rece the price advantage of Chinese procts, and the benefits may be reced e to the al impact of export volume and price. Comparatively speaking, the impact of domestic market is relatively small, while the impact of export-oriented is relatively large. Now the appreciation of RMB will rece the expectation of Europe and the United States on the tariff increase of China's textile instry.
4. Automobile instry: 70% of the main parts of China's automobile, such as engines, depend on imports, accounting for the main part of the automobile cost. If RMB appreciation, the import price of auto parts will be reced, which will greatly rece the cost, which is good for enterprises. However, China's automobile instry has poor competitiveness because it does not have its own superior technology. Once the RMB appreciation, the price of imported cars will also be reced, and the price advantage of domestic cars will be impacted, which will affect the sales of cars
5. Real estate: RMB appreciation will comprehensively enhance the value of domestic real estate assets. The expectation of continuous appreciation will be good for the real estate price in the long run, while the expectation of RMB appreciation will be stronger, which will inevitably attract speculative funds to continue to flow into the real estate market and continue to increase the scale of investment in commercial real estate in China's central cities. Commercial real estate developers and retail companies with the concept of commercial real estate revaluation can fully enjoy the benefits of RMB appreciation
6. Tourism: the appreciation of RMB and the devaluation of US dollar make the outbound tourism of domestic residents cheaper, while the inbound tourism of foreign tourists is relatively expensive, which is obviously unfavorable to the domestic scenic spot companies, but beneficial to the listed companies of travel agencies
7. Paper instry: the foreign exchange consumption of paper instry ranks the third in domestic instry, mainly including imported wood pulp, imported non pulp and imported waste paper. The cost of pulp in China's paper instry accounts for 70%, and 38% of the pulp is imported. The exchange rate adjustment will directly rece proction costs and improve the profitability of the instry. But at the same time, it also makes the imported finished paper cheaper, which may have a certain impact on domestic enterprises
therefore, from the perspective of capital, judging from a long period of time, the expectation of RMB appreciation is concive to the development and prosperity of China's stock market. But in the short run, the appreciation expectation of RMB will restrain the stock market.

8. Under the expectation of RMB appreciation, on the one hand, asset prices will face revaluation; on the other hand, under the expectation of RMB appreciation, international capital inflow has a positive effect on asset prices such as real estate. Wei Fengchun, chief macroeconomic researcher of China CITIC Construction Investment Corporation, also said that as a large amount of foreign capital flows into the Chinese market and is converted into RMB, for the real estate market, under the condition of constant supply, the rise of demand will naturally lead to the rise of prices. Huang Qinglin, chief real estate analyst of Great Wall Securities, said that the real estate market, as a natural medium for foreign capital to convert into RMB assets after entering the Chinese market, has become the target of foreign capital's pursuit. Foreign capital can enjoy the double benefits of rising house prices and rising exchange rate by holding real estate. Foreign investment in real estate, even if the price does not rise, RMB exchange rate rise can also achieve the purpose of capital appreciation.