Virtual monetary policy of the central bank in 2020
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China's monetary policy in 2020: China's economic work in 2020, clearly continue to implement positive fiscal policy and stable monetary policy
continue to implement prudent monetary policy to create a good monetary and financial environment for promoting high-quality economic development. China is one of the few major economies in the world that still adopts a normalized monetary policy
we will adhere to the fundamental requirements of financial services for the real economy, comprehensively consider economic growth, inflation expectations, macro leverage and exchange rate stability, maintain flexibility and moderation, strengthen counter cyclical adjustment, dredge the policy transmission mechanism, improve the efficiency of monetary policy, give full play to the guiding role of structural tools, and increase the investment in key areas and weak links, especially small and micro enterprises, private enterprises, and enterprises The support of manufacturing instry should be strengthened to serve the high-quality development of economy
extended data:
monetary policy's anti business cycle adjustment refers to monetary policy's "acting against the economic direction". When the economic growth is too fast and the pressure of inflation increases, we should implement a tight monetary policy, raise interest rates or the statutory deposit reserve ratio, tighten money supply and credit, cool the overheated economy and curb the excessive inflation rate
On the contrary, when the economic growth rate declines or there is a risk of recession, monetary policy should rece interest rates, increase money supply and total credit, ensure liquidity supply, and stimulate investment and consumptionat the stage of economic downturn, especially under the impact of financial crisis, when financial institutions or enterprises are faced with short-term funding shortage, the central bank should provide financing facilities for financial institutions, promote the reasonable and stable growth of money and credit, improve the financing environment, maintain the trust of investors, and provide a relatively loose financial environment for economic growth. The application of monetary policy's counter cyclical regulation aims at regulating the cyclical fluctuation of economy
Guanghua School of management of Peking University recently said in a report that in 2020, it is still necessary to scientifically and steadily grasp the counter cyclical adjustment of macro policies, so as to ensure the reasonable growth of economic quantity and steady improvement of economic quality, and smoothly achieve the goal of "decisive victory over well-off society". At the same time, the report also pointed out that we should keep the macro leverage ratio basically stable, firmly hold the bottom line of no systemic risk, and the bottom line of reflecting stable growth is risk prevention<
special debt is still the main focus of fiscal policy
the data shows that as of November 2019, the national fiscal revenue has increased by 3.8%, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.0 percentage points. In terms of fiscal expenditure, the national general public budget expenditure from January to November was 20646.3 billion yuan, an increase of 7.7%, 3.9 percentage points higher than the increase of revenue
"in the future, the main force of fiscal policy will still be local government special bonds, and the limit of special bonds is expected to be between 2.8-3 trillion in 2020." The report points out that on September 4, 2019, the State Council issued the new amount of special bonds in 2020 in advance. The amount of special bonds issued at the beginning of this year will be significantly higher than that of last year
according to color, associate professor of Applied Economics at Guanghua School of management, Peking University, although this year is the closing year of the 13th five year plan, since the central government has been emphasizing the reserve of a number of large projects since July 2019, it is expected that some strategic projects that have been prepared will be implemented in advance this year, The expansion of the scale of special bonds combined with the effect of special bonds as the policy of recing the capital ratio of major projects will significantly strengthen the leverage effect on infrastructure investment, and the economic pulling effect may begin to take effect in the second quarter of this year
monetary policy will pay more attention to stable growth
in terms of monetary policy, the report believes that the style of the central bank's monetary policy may change in 2020, and the easing signal will be more clear
on the one hand, the central economic work conference mentioned for the first time that monetary policy should be "flexible and moderate", which is different from the previous "moderate tightness". This means that the setting of monetary policy is not unchangeable, but under the coexistence of economic downturn and inflation pressure, it should be adjusted appropriately according to the actual needs. On the other hand, as for inflation, e to the limited diffusion capacity of structural inflation, it is expected that although prices will remain high in the first half of this year, they are expected to fall in the second half of this year, which provides space for the adjustment of monetary policy style
the report points out that the expression of liquidity in the central economic work conference is still "maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity", and put forward requirements for the growth of monetary credit and social financing scale, and "adapt to economic development and rece social financing cost". In addition, the Standing Committee of the people's Republic of China clearly proposed that the comprehensive financing cost of inclusive small and micro loans should be reced by another 0.5 percentage point in 2020. In addition, the risks of small and medium-sized banks in China should be increased, which put forward requirements for the central bank to further rece the reserve requirement
the color also indicates that compared with the developed economies such as the United States, Japan and Europe, China's deposit reserve ratio is higher, so there is still a large space to rece the reserve ratio. In addition, this year's steady growth of fiscal policy is driven by special debt, which has a large scale. Monetary policy needs to rece reserve requirements to ensure sufficient liquidity, so as to cooperate with the implementation of fiscal policy< The report also points out that in the medium and long term, China's economic growth will face many challenges in the future. Whether China's economy can complete the transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development, it is particularly important to improve the total factor proctivity
"whether the total factor proctivity can continue to improve depends on whether we can find the new kinetic energy of China's economic growth and how to effectively release the new kinetic energy." The report further pointed out that China still has many favorable structural forces in promoting TFP growth
first, China's economic "Reinstrialization" and "instrial digital transformation". The use of Internet big data to drive instrial change can bring room for the improvement of total factor proctivity< Second, "new infrastructure" - infrastructure for Reinstrialization. The infrastructure construction around instrial transformation and instrial Internet, such as 5g base station and cloud computing equipment, will promote the growth of total factor proctivity
thirdly, there is still room for the development of instry in large countries. In the future, the development of civil aviation, aircraft engine, integrated circuit and so on will inject possibility into the improvement of TFP
Fourth, more thorough reform and opening up bring about the improvement of resource allocation efficiency. In addition to technology, "institutional reform" and "further reform and opening up" can form institutional dividend space and maintain a high growth rate of total factor proctivity