Economic crisis virtual currency plummeted
a few hours after the announcement, the US dollar began a crazy devaluation process. The international foreign exchange market began to sell the US dollar crazily. It lasted for two years, but there was no sign of stopping. As a result, these five great gentlemen (or their successors) had to meet again to discuss measures to prevent the US dollar from falling further. This is the Louvre agreement reached in 1987, and that's later
after the Plaza Agreement, the yen and mark began to appreciate significantly. Since the floating exchange rate system was implemented in 1971, the dollar began to depreciate against the mark and yen. After entering the 1980s, the US dollar strengthened steadily. This chronic rising trend was interrupted again in the middle of 1985, and the yen and mark began to appreciate sharply again. In about three years after 1985, the dollar depreciated sharply. The mark's appreciation has returned to the level of the early 1980s, while the yen has risen to a post-war all-time high. This is an important reason why the yen has become the focus of the Plaza Agreement
the side effects of "Plaza Agreement" and yen appreciation
firstly, yen appreciation has raised the cost and price of Japanese procts. In the past, Japanese procts, which once dominated the world market with high quality and low price, all of a sudden became "aristocrats" in the commodity world. Although the appreciation of the yen has little impact on the export of those irreplaceable procts, a considerable part of Japan's exports can be replaced. The appreciation of Japanese yen will restrain the demand for such procts in the international market, thus hitting the enterprises procing such procts. This kind of attack will spread to other instries through the instrial chain, and may even form a comprehensive inhibition on Japan's economic growth. This is the "yen appreciation depression" that the Japanese government is worried about
secondly, the appreciation of yen reces the import price of Japan. Although this can make Japan, which is short of resources, exchange less expenditure for needed resources, cheap foreign manufactured goods also flow into Japan at the same time, impacting the original instrial structure of Japan. The most affected instries are those labor-intensive instries which are not high-tech but are of great significance to maintaining employment
thirdly, the sharp appreciation of yen has aroused the interest of international speculative capital, making yen the target of speculative capital. Since then, the ups and downs of the yen exchange rate and the turmoil of Japan's stock market have led to the rise and fall of international speculative capital. This has brought new factors of instability to the Japanese economy< The relationship between yen appreciation and Japan's bubble economy after br / > four and "Plaza Accord" is
many research results show that the root cause of Japan's bubble economy is in Japan. These reasons include: after the end of catch-up economic growth, it failed to take the initiative to transform to independent development economic growth, and the system and system were aging; Macroeconomic policy mistakes, the original structure of the economic development has been saturated, but artificially stimulate prosperity, resulting in economic inflation; The financial system is not perfect, in the trend of financial liberalization, bank supervision is absent; The lack of guidance on the flow of surplus capital leads to a large amount of capital flowing to the speculative market and so on.
because the economic crisis and financial crisis will cause people's panic and lack of investment confidence
which will lead to a vicious circle of currency liquidity trap (the more people dare not invest, the more vulnerable the market is, the more people dare not invest)
authority (the government, the market, the more vulnerable the market is) In order to get rid of the crisis, the central bank will lend or print a lot of money to create liquidity for the market and stimulate the improvement and development of the economy.
as soon as there is a flood of liquidity and a lot of money, the price of goods marked with money will definitely be raised, and the money is worthless.
therefore, generally speaking, the currency will be devalued
Usually, when a country's economy collapses, it is accompanied by inflation, soaring prices and devaluation
There are more and more money and less resources in the market. When ordinary people get the money, they are already short of materials and the price is rising. With the collapse of the economy, soaring prices and devaluation of the currency, it is normal for most enterprises to continue their operations and for the stock market to plummet The vicious inflation is a kind of uncontrollable inflation, which makes the currency lose its value quickly when the price rises rapidly. This kind of vicious inflation generally means that demand is far greater than supplywhen China is in an economic crisis, the RMB will depreciate against the US dollar, the level of domestic proction can not keep up with that of imports, and the money supply is far greater than the physical goods in the market
The first is the tax system, which is mainly reflected in the lag of tax calculation and payment{rrrrrrr}
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the impact of currency devaluation on China:
currency devaluation will first increase the domestic price of trade goods, and through the substitution of trade goods and non trade goods, the price of non trade goods will also increase, and the increase of material price level will mean the decrease of real currency balance
Under the condition of constant money supply, people will inevitably meet the increasing demand for nominal money by selling goods and financial assets, so as to improve the balance of payments However, the effect of currency devaluation on the balance of payments can only be proced when the money supply is reced or kept unchangedthe increase of money supply offsets the increase of nominal money demand caused by the devaluation of local currency, and the balance of payments will not be improved or even worsen
Currency devaluation helps to stimulate consumption, while foreign countries make goods competitive and stimulate the recovery and development of their own economy. In 1997, the Asian financial crisis, Southeast Asia, South Asia and the "four little dragons of Asia", Japan's economy collapsed, and affected the developed regions of Europe and America. At this critical juncture, the world focused on China, the only capable country in Asia
if China's currency devalues, it may help China avoid the impact of economic crisis and economic losses, but the price is the Asian economy and even the global economic recession. However, China's insistence on currency depreciation is at the cost of its own losses
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the difference between financial crisis and economic crisis
In theory, there is a big difference between "finance" and "economy"“ "Finance" is the general term of a series of activities with money and capital as the core. Its corresponding main concepts are "consumption" and "proction", while the latter two are mainly around goods and servicesthe so-called financial crisis means that there are some persistent contradictions in the operation of activities related to money and capital, such as the credit crisis in the cashing of bills, the currency crisis caused by the disconnection of sales, etc
as far as the US subprime mortgage crisis is concerned, the fundamental reason is that the monetary credit in the capital market is infinitely enlarged through financial derivatives, which brings a huge gap between the supply of monetary credit and the ability to pay for a long period of time, and finally seriously deviates from the limited demand for credit in the real proct market
when this kind of deviation generally exists in all fields of financial market, the sub-prime crisis, that is, the local financial contradiction, will inevitably evolve into a financial crisis
The connotation of "economy" is obviously broader than "finance", which includes all the above activities related to people's demand and supply, such as "consumption", "proction" and "finance". Its core is to create value and obtain welfare through the integration of resources In this regard, "economy" is a result with value orientation, and "finance" is a process to achieve this result. Therefore, economic crisis refers to the fact that the increase of value and welfare can not meet people's needs for a period of time. For example, a large amount of overproction (traditional economic depression) caused by the disconnection between supply and demand, and excessive demand (recent economic crisis) caused by credit expansion. Through comparison, we can find that the biggest difference between economic crisis and financial crisis lies in the different degree and scope of their impact on social welfare. In a sense, financial crisis is just a process crisis, while economic crisis is a result crisisfrom the domestic point of view, currency devaluation under the metal currency system refers to the measures to rece the legal metal content of the domestic currency and its price to metal ratio, so as to rece the value of the domestic currency; Under the modern paper currency system, currency devaluation means that when the amount of paper currency in circulation exceeds the demand for money, that is, when the currency expands, the value of paper currency decreases. From the international point of view, the value of currency is expressed as the exchange capacity with foreign currency, which is reflected in the change of exchange rate. At this time, currency devaluation refers to the decrease of the exchange capacity of a unit of domestic currency to foreign currency and the decrease of the foreign exchange rate of domestic currency. For example, if 100 US dollars were exchanged for 300 RMB last year and 400 RMB this year, the RMB will depreciate. The devaluation of currency causes the rise of price in China. However, currency devaluation can stimulate proction under certain conditions, and rece the price of domestic goods abroad, which is concive to expanding exports and recing imports. Therefore, after the Second World War, many countries used it as a means of anti economic crisis and stimulating economic development.