Policy orientation of virtual money market

1. There is no special regulation

2. Virtual money has the mathematical characteristics of money (persistence, portability, interchangeability, scarcity, separability and identifiability) rather than relying on physical characteristics (such as gold and silver) or the trust of the central authority (such as fiat money). In short, virtual money is supported by mathematics. With these characteristics, a form of money to have value requires trust and use. For virtual currency, this can be reflected in its growing base of users, businesses and start-ups. Like all currencies, the value of virtual currency comes directly from people who are willing to accept it as a way of payment, which is also the only source

at present, the well-known virtual currencies are bitcoin, Laite coin, Fuyuan coin and doggy coin.

3. Here's bitcoin
bitcoin price has been cut by the waist
how to implement blockchain application is still the main problem. In addition to bitcoin, the large-scale application of blockchain in other scenarios has not yet reached the commercial stage. Looking back to the second half of 2017, the price of bitcoin almost reached a new high every day, and finally reached the peak in the South Korean exchange with the highest premium in the world - about 140000 yuan per piece. On June 3, 2018, as of press time, coinbase bitcoin trading platform quoted 49688 yuan, and the price of bitcoin has been cut. Since the beginning of this year, the price of bitcoin has rarely seen eye popping ups and downs, and the overall trend of monthly decline
bitcoin development status
according to the data of the in-depth analysis report on business model innovation and investment opportunities of the blockchain instry released by the foresight Instry Research Institute, bitcoin prices showed a downward trend in May, with the overall market value falling from US $157.3 billion at the beginning of the month to US $127.4 billion at the end of the month, a decrease of 19%; In addition, there are 444000 active addresses and 197000 transfers per day. From the trend point of view, the number of active addresses and daily transfers are positively correlated with the transaction price. In May, the overall trend is volatile, and the downward trend is very obvious
reasons for the steady decline of bitcoin in the past half year
how to understand the "steady decline" of bitcoin in the past half year? There are two main reasons: firstly, the most important reason is that institutional investors and speculators who have accumulated a large number of "profit" are cashing in their profits and leaving the market; Secondly, before the blockchain instry has no real application and profit model, the rise of bitcoin price can only be regarded as speculative speculation. In addition, it is an undeniable fact that the Central Bank of China has made a decisive move to close the bitcoin trading platform, which has achieved remarkable results in preventing bitcoin speculation
at present, the domestic bitcoin exchanges have basically moved to foreign countries, which has nothing to do with China. Investors operate on those platforms at their own risk
the current market is not very good. Only when the market is good, can investors find ways to participate in bitcoin investment. As the total market value of the coin circle is still small, with more blockchain applications, there is still potential in the future
over consumed blockchain
e to the "tepid" price of bitcoin, blockchain, as its underlying technology, has reached the level of "known to all women and children", and even surpassed bitcoin in recent years
recently, a series of related reports are suspected of making up for the number and full of hype, and blockchain has obviously been over consumed. In addition to bitcoin, the large-scale application of blockchain in other scenarios has not yet reached the commercial stage
with the graal deepening of the understanding of blockchain technology, domestic enterprises have laid out blockchain technology, platforms and applications, including Internet enterprises such as network, Tencent, Ali, Jingdong, Netease, major banks, financial enterprises such as Ping An of China and Huawei. In terms of application, China actively explores and promotes blockchain + applications in the form of alliance chain and private chain to help solve the pain points of related instries, improve efficiency and rece costs.

4.

1、 Common analysis of virtual currency (1) bitcoin solution is designed and created by Japanese programmer Nakamoto (alias) in 2009, and it is the most successful and controversial network currency at present. Bitcoin scheme is based on P2P network architecture, which has been operating in the world, and can be used for all kinds of virtual and real goods and services transactions

In theory, if the existence of network currency affects the demand for the central bank's liabilities, and then interferes with the central bank's open market operation, it will have an impact on a country's monetary policy and price stability. However, from a practical point of view, the premise of network currency affecting price stability includes the following three aspects:

(1) from the analysis of the impact on the amount of money, although it is difficult to analyze the extent to which the network currency scheme creates money in the case of lack of information

However,
however, most Internet money systems operate in prepaid mode, that is, issuing Internet money when the real money is exchanged in and withdrawing money when the real money is exchanged out. In the famous network currency scheme, the supply of money is stable and the supply is small, but we still need to be vigilant whether it can ensure that the money supply will maintain a stable level in the long run, and the impact of the change of exchange rate between network currency and real currency

(2) from the analysis of the impact on the speed of money circulation, the use of cash and money statistics, the impact of the technological innovation brought by the network currency scheme on the speed of money circulation is not clear

as an Internet instry, it largely depends on the number of active internet currency scheme users. If the network currency is widely accepted, it will have a substitution effect on the real currency of the central bank, thus recing the use of cash in transactions
in this case, the scale of the central bank's balance sheet will be reced, and its ability to influence short-term interest rates will also be weakened. The central bank will need to fight against risks through ways such as setting minimum reserves for cyber currencies. Substitution effect will aggravate the difficulty of monetary statistics and affect the relationship between monetary statistics and inflation, which is not concive to the realization of long-term price stability. In addition, the issuance of network currency outside the central bank and the expansion of virtual credit will have an impact on the central bank's interest rate decision in the economy and weaken the central bank's monetary control

(3) from the analysis of the interaction between network currency and real economy, network currency can act as a real commodity trading medium and have an impact on real GDP

The influence of network money on real money supply depends on two aspects: one is the substitution effect of virtual economy on real economy; the other is the substitution effect of virtual economy on real economy; The second is the crowding out effect of Internet money on real money, that is, with the increase of the total amount of Internet money, the amount of cash held by the public in real life decreases, resulting in the decrease of cash / deposit ratio and the increase of money multiplier. In reality, the network virtual currency scheme will not affect the price stability at this stage, and the money flow speed will not be significantly affected in the short and medium term. However, the interaction between network currency and real economy deserves attention

(2) financial stability risk when the virtual currency scheme operates outside the banking system, the most important factor of financial instability lies in its connection with the real economy, namely exchange rate and exchange market. Obviously, the closed network currency scheme and the one-way flow network currency scheme are not affected, so we should focus on the two-way flow network currency scheme. The value of two-way network currency depends on the level of money supply and demand in the exchange market. A big difference between network currency and real currency is that the network currency scheme is not based on the country or currency region, and the influence of virtual economy intensity, trade or proction capacity on its exchange rate is limited. The price of virtual money and its fluctuation depend on five factors:

(1) money supply and other actions taken by currency issuers. For example: to achieve a fixed or semi fixed exchange rate by intervening in the market

(2) the network currency scheme shows network externality, and its monetary value depends on the number of users and merchants. As the number of consumers and businesses increases, their monetary value will increase accordingly. In addition, the exchange rate of network currency with small transaction volume fluctuates more

(3) the virtual community with clear and transparent policies and advanced security measures is easier to boost confidence and the currency is stronger

(4) the reputation of network currency issuers in fulfilling their commitments. There is no "lender of last resort" in the virtual community, and the trust gained by the issuer is crucial to the exchange rate of internet currency

(5)
speculation on the future value of Internet money and cyber attacks on virtual communities. Due to the immaturity of the system, low trading, speculative activities and network attacks, the two-way network currency scheme is inherently unstable
qualitative. At present, the trading volume of these network currencies is small and the correlation with the real economy is low, so the stability of the financial system will not be affected. However, if Internet money becomes a substitute for traditional money in the future, it will bring instability to the financial system and even distort the relative prices of goods and services. The impact of network currency system on the financial system largely depends on the number of active users and the number of merchants who are willing to accept virtual currency for real transactions. In addition, virtual currency has only exchange value and no use value. Generally, network currency is not based on assets with intrinsic value and is not supported by central bank credit. At present, these network monetary systems are not allowed to lend
or borrow funds, so it can not pose a threat to the stability of the financial system, but we should pay close attention to its development. If there is any change in the future, it will undoubtedly have an impact on the financial system

(3) stability risk of payment system

in a specific virtual community, virtual currency payment activities have evolved into a "real" payment system, facing typical risks related to the payment system: credit risk, liquidity risk, operational risk and legal risk. The nature, scale and ration of these risks are largely determined by the design of the system or the degree of lack of liquidity, so it is difficult for the network virtual currency scheme to avoid or control these risks. According to the core principles of payment system (CP) issued by the bank for International Settlements (BIS), the network virtual currency scheme does not conform to most of the contents of CP, and does not belong to the systemically important payment system. Therefore, it will not cause
or transmit shocks in the global financial system. At present, there is no systematic risk in the network currency system outside these virtual communities

2. Lack of corresponding supervision and protection mechanism

in the real economy, the central bank plays the role of lender of last resort and has no default risk, so it can take actions in the case of payment crisis or unpredictable liquidity shortage to avoid chain reaction. However, in the network virtual currency scheme
it is impossible to use network currency as settlement asset. Because network currency simply depends on the credibility of the issuer, it can not be widely accepted as a means of payment, so network currency can not be regarded as a safe currency. In addition, commercial banks are required to accept prudential supervision, which reces the possibility of default, and the security of money in commercial bank accounts is higher than that of network currency. A fundamental risk of network currency is that the settlement institution of network currency scheme is not subject to any supervision, no institution is responsible for its behavior, and there is no investor / depositor protection mechanism, which causes the user to bear all the risks

(4) risk of absence of supervision generally speaking, supervision lags behind the development of science and technology. The network virtual currency program was established in the late 1990s, but it was not until 2006 that some government agencies in the United States began to analyze these programs. Due to the lack of
supervision and the anonymity, invisibility and difficulty in tracking of its transactions, the network virtual currency scheme is very easy to be used by terrorist activities, fraud, money laundering and other illegal activities. At present, many government departments in many countries are considering whether to recognize or
legalize these virtual schemes and bring them into the scope of supervision, so as to support the innovation of currency and payment forms, protect the rights and interests of consumers and financial stability, and inhibit the use of virtual currency schemes to engage in criminal activities
at present, the uncertainty of the legal status of the virtual currency scheme may also bring challenges to the government authorities

(5) reputation risk of monetary authority the reputation of Monetary Authority (central bank) is the key factor to determine the effectiveness of monetary policy. The public's trust in fiat money is closely related to the image of the central bank, which pays close attention to its reputation. The ECB defines reputation risk as the risk of deterioration of reputation, credit or public image. As the network currency scheme is related to money and payment, it is generally believed that it belongs to the responsibility of the central bank, so we should be alert to the reputation risk it may bring to the central bank. However, in the case of small scale, the impact of the failure of the network currency scheme is limited, but its high volatility and instability also aggravate the possibility of failure and attract extensive media coverage. If the network currency is allowed to develop continuously without
regulation, the central bank may be considered as dereliction of ty and affect its reputation

(6) the risk of investors' loss
for exchange value, the public has a higher recognition of the investment value of network virtual currency, and it is investment based transactions that accelerate the formation of virtual currency market. Like other investment markets, participants in virtual money market will also face potential losses caused by market risk, credit risk and policy risk. Take bitcoin as an example: from 2009 to early 2010, bitcoin was worthless; In the summer of 2010, bitcoin trading began to enter the golden
period. As the supply was far less than the demand, the value of online trading began to rise. In early November, bitcoin was silent at 29 cents for many days, and then jumped to 36 cents; In February 2011, bitcoin continued to appreciate, and its exchange rate with us dollar
reached 1:1; In 2013, the price of bitcoin achieved a "Big Bang" growth, and hit US $1242 on November 29, 2013, surpassing the gold price of US $1241.98/ounce in the same period. Fierce price fluctuations make market participants face huge speculative risks. Unlike mature capital markets such as stocks and bonds, the depth of bitcoin market is insufficient, and it is mainly held in the hands of large investors with low degree of diversification. Bitcoin price is easily affected by large investors' buying and selling behavior, and also easily manipulated by speculators. At the same time, different countries have different attitudes towards bitcoin, Germany, the United States and other countries hold an open and supportive attitude, and Thailand, Brazil and other countries regard bitcoin related activities
as illegal. Every country's attitude and measures will have a significant impact on the price of bitcoin, especially in the short term

virtual currency is always inferior to real currency< br />

5. Now the virtual RMB has also been issued, and the state's policy on virtual currency must strengthen supervision. In this case, we can agree.

6. Similar to the current global political pattern, one superpower has many powers
bitcoin is the overlord, and other shanzhais such as Laite coin, Fuyuan coin, doggy coin and Ruibo coin have a certain market share
bitcoin is the ancestor of digital cryptocurrency, with the highest market value, attention and popularity. Moreover, bitcoin related companies have obtained billions of dollars in financing, and also have a certain share in the payment field
lightcoin is the ancestor of Shanzhai coin and an unsuccessful experiment of bitcoin, but its popularity is second only to bitcoin
Fuyuan coin is the main application, and its future application scenario is the business points of jewelry business, which is the best of the three generations of coins, supported by large jewelry groups
dog coin is a kind of counterfeit coin that is well done in marketing, and it has certain competitiveness in the small reward and charity donation market
reborn took the route of cooperation with the government and traditional financial institutions, and obtained more than US $30 million in financing.

7. The key is management. QQ coin is different. Although it is valuable, in reality, it does not have the effect of output, and it does not really affect the economy in society. It is not like foreign currency or bonds, There are also certificates for stocks, which are the proof of social assets. They can be exchanged for cash at one time, but they will not have long-term impact, because we have to consider the social understanding of them, Unless the society develops to a very high level, when the network life takes up a very important part of people's life, it may have a great impact on the money market. With regard to the proportion of computers in each family and the population of network life, this kind of network currency will not have a great impact on the real money market at all