Virtual currency terror
in view of the possible risks of virtual currency, many international organizations and central banks have responded publicly to the supervision of virtual currency system. These responses can be roughly divided into four categories: warning and risk warning, supervision and registration permission, legislative norms, and explicit prohibition
(1) warning and risk warning
some central banks and regulators have issued risk warnings against the special currency and virtual currency system. The federal financial regulatory authority of Germany, the Bank of France, the central banks of the Netherlands and Belgium have issued public warnings against the possible money laundering and terrorist financing caused by the use of bitcoin. In the report released at the end of 2013, the European Banking authority (EBA) warned consumers of many risks of virtual currency, such as exchange loss, e-wallet theft, unprotected payment, price fluctuation and so on. Although Spain did not have a similar risk warning, it issued a timely information announcement related to virtual currency
(2) supervision and registration license
generally speaking, international organizations believe that the supervision of virtual currency should find a balance between risk prevention and innovation promotion. Since 2012, Sweden has required transactions related to virtual currency to be registered with financial regulators. Other countries pay attention to qualification supervision, so as to make it indirectly meet the requirements of prudential supervision. In other countries, the regulation mainly focuses on the business model of virtual currency transaction. The financial prudential regulatory authority of France regards the provision of bitcoin circulation and trading services and the act of earning funds in the process as a payment service and requires the authorization of the government. In addition, some countries focus on the intermediary institutions related to virtual currency. The German federal financial regulatory agency and Danish regulators believe that the provision of intermediary services for virtual currency needs to be authorized< (3) legislative norms
at present, some countries have proposed legislation to regulate virtual currency transactions. Canada plans to legislate to allow the government to supervise the transaction of bitcoin, and to include the transaction of more than US $10000 into the scope of suspicious supervision. The United States hopes to adjust the relevant legal structure should be compared with the development of the special currency. In order to make the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) applicable in the context of network, the financial crime enforcement network (FinCEN) of the U.S. Department of the Treasury issued the explanatory guidance on the behavior and subject definition of private generation, holding, distribution, trading, acceptance and transmission of virtual currency in 2013. The European central bank stressed that it should strengthen international cooperation under the existing legal framework, and regulate virtual currency from the European and global level under the existing legal framework. More countries believe that bitcoin is not a currency in circulation, has no legal status, and does not meet the definition of financial instruments, such as Finland, Sweden, Malaysia and Indonesia
(4) it is forbidden
in some countries, bitcoin related transactions are prohibited. In December 2013, the people's Bank of China banned financial institutions from trading in bitcoin, which was subsequently extended to payment service providers. The central banks of Thailand and Indonesia share the same attitude. The circulation of anonymous internet currency (including bitcoin) is prohibited by the Russian judicial inspection department as a substitute for currency. The Central Bank of Russia has earlier included the provision of bitcoin services in the scope of suspicious transaction monitoring. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has banned the issue of unregistered shares in exchange for bitcoin, and unregistered online securities trading activities in virtual currency.
1、 Common analysis of virtual currency (1) bitcoin solution is designed and created by Japanese programmer Nakamoto (alias) in 2009, and it is the most successful and controversial network currency at present. Bitcoin scheme is based on P2P network architecture, which has been operating in the world, and can be used for all kinds of virtual and real goods and services transactions
In theory, if the existence of network currency affects the demand for the central bank's liabilities, and then interferes with the central bank's open market operation, it will have an impact on a country's monetary policy and price stability. However, from a practical point of view, the premise of network currency affecting price stability includes the following three aspects:(1) from the analysis of the impact on the amount of money, although it is difficult to analyze the extent to which the network currency scheme creates money in the case of lack of information
However,however, most Internet money systems operate in prepaid mode, that is, issuing Internet money when the real money is exchanged in and withdrawing money when the real money is exchanged out. In the famous network currency scheme, the supply of money is stable and the supply is small, but we still need to be vigilant whether it can ensure that the money supply will maintain a stable level in the long run, and the impact of the change of exchange rate between network currency and real currency
(2) from the analysis of the impact on the speed of money circulation, the use of cash and money statistics, the impact of the technological innovation brought by the network currency scheme on the speed of money circulation is not clear
as an Internet instry, it largely depends on the number of active internet currency scheme users. If the network currency is widely accepted, it will have a substitution effect on the real currency of the central bank, thus recing the use of cash in transactions
in this case, the scale of the central bank's balance sheet will be reced, and its ability to influence short-term interest rates will also be weakened. The central bank will need to fight against risks through ways such as setting minimum reserves for cyber currencies. Substitution effect will aggravate the difficulty of monetary statistics and affect the relationship between monetary statistics and inflation, which is not concive to the realization of long-term price stability. In addition, the issuance of network currency outside the central bank and the expansion of virtual credit will have an impact on the central bank's interest rate decision in the economy and weaken the central bank's monetary control
(3) from the analysis of the interaction between network currency and real economy, network currency can act as a real commodity trading medium and have an impact on real GDP
The influence of network money on real money supply depends on two aspects: one is the substitution effect of virtual economy on real economy; the other is the substitution effect of virtual economy on real economy; The second is the crowding out effect of Internet money on real money, that is, with the increase of the total amount of Internet money, the amount of cash held by the public in real life decreases, resulting in the decrease of cash / deposit ratio and the increase of money multiplier. In reality, the network virtual currency scheme will not affect the price stability at this stage, and the money flow speed will not be significantly affected in the short and medium term. However, the interaction between network currency and real economy deserves attention (2) financial stability risk when the virtual currency scheme operates outside the banking system, the most important factor of financial instability lies in its connection with the real economy, namely exchange rate and exchange market. Obviously, the closed network currency scheme and the one-way flow network currency scheme are not affected, so we should focus on the two-way flow network currency scheme. The value of two-way network currency depends on the level of money supply and demand in the exchange market. A big difference between network currency and real currency is that the network currency scheme is not based on the country or currency region, and the influence of virtual economy intensity, trade or proction capacity on its exchange rate is limited. The price of virtual money and its fluctuation depend on five factors:(1) money supply and other actions taken by currency issuers. For example: to achieve a fixed or semi fixed exchange rate by intervening in the market
(2) the network currency scheme shows network externality, and its monetary value depends on the number of users and merchants. As the number of consumers and businesses increases, their monetary value will increase accordingly. In addition, the exchange rate of network currency with small transaction volume fluctuates more(3) the virtual community with clear and transparent policies and advanced security measures is easier to boost confidence and the currency is stronger
(4) the reputation of network currency issuers in fulfilling their commitments. There is no "lender of last resort" in the virtual community, and the trust gained by the issuer is crucial to the exchange rate of internet currency
(5)
speculation on the future value of Internet money and cyber attacks on virtual communities. Due to the immaturity of the system, low trading, speculative activities and network attacks, the two-way network currency scheme is inherently unstable
qualitative. At present, the trading volume of these network currencies is small and the correlation with the real economy is low, so the stability of the financial system will not be affected. However, if Internet money becomes a substitute for traditional money in the future, it will bring instability to the financial system and even distort the relative prices of goods and services. The impact of network currency system on the financial system largely depends on the number of active users and the number of merchants who are willing to accept virtual currency for real transactions. In addition, virtual currency has only exchange value and no use value. Generally, network currency is not based on assets with intrinsic value and is not supported by central bank credit. At present, these network monetary systems are not allowed to lend
or borrow funds, so it can not pose a threat to the stability of the financial system, but we should pay close attention to its development. If there is any change in the future, it will undoubtedly have an impact on the financial system
in a specific virtual community, virtual currency payment activities have evolved into a "real" payment system, facing typical risks related to the payment system: credit risk, liquidity risk, operational risk and legal risk. The nature, scale and ration of these risks are largely determined by the design of the system or the degree of lack of liquidity, so it is difficult for the network virtual currency scheme to avoid or control these risks. According to the core principles of payment system (CP) issued by the bank for International Settlements (BIS), the network virtual currency scheme does not conform to most of the contents of CP, and does not belong to the systemically important payment system. Therefore, it will not cause
or transmit shocks in the global financial system. At present, there is no systematic risk in the network currency system outside these virtual communities
2. Lack of corresponding supervision and protection mechanism
in the real economy, the central bank plays the role of lender of last resort and has no default risk, so it can take actions in the case of payment crisis or unpredictable liquidity shortage to avoid chain reaction. However, in the network virtual currency scheme
it is impossible to use network currency as settlement asset. Because network currency simply depends on the credibility of the issuer, it can not be widely accepted as a means of payment, so network currency can not be regarded as a safe currency. In addition, commercial banks are required to accept prudential supervision, which reces the possibility of default, and the security of money in commercial bank accounts is higher than that of network currency. A fundamental risk of network currency is that the settlement institution of network currency scheme is not subject to any supervision, no institution is responsible for its behavior, and there is no investor / depositor protection mechanism, which causes the user to bear all the risks
supervision and the anonymity, invisibility and difficulty in tracking of its transactions, the network virtual currency scheme is very easy to be used by terrorist activities, fraud, money laundering and other illegal activities. At present, many government departments in many countries are considering whether to recognize or
legalize these virtual schemes and bring them into the scope of supervision, so as to support the innovation of currency and payment forms, protect the rights and interests of consumers and financial stability, and inhibit the use of virtual currency schemes to engage in criminal activities
at present, the uncertainty of the legal status of the virtual currency scheme may also bring challenges to the government authorities (5) reputation risk of monetary authority the reputation of Monetary Authority (central bank) is the key factor to determine the effectiveness of monetary policy. The public's trust in fiat money is closely related to the image of the central bank, which pays close attention to its reputation. The ECB defines reputation risk as the risk of deterioration of reputation, credit or public image. As the network currency scheme is related to money and payment, it is generally believed that it belongs to the responsibility of the central bank, so we should be alert to the reputation risk it may bring to the central bank. However, in the case of small scale, the impact of the failure of the network currency scheme is limited, but its high volatility and instability also aggravate the possibility of failure and attract extensive media coverage. If the network currency is allowed to develop continuously without
regulation, the central bank may be considered as dereliction of ty and affect its reputation (6) the risk of investors' loss
for exchange value, the public has a higher recognition of the investment value of network virtual currency, and it is investment based transactions that accelerate the formation of virtual currency market. Like other investment markets, participants in virtual money market will also face potential losses caused by market risk, credit risk and policy risk. Take bitcoin as an example: from 2009 to early 2010, bitcoin was worthless; In the summer of 2010, bitcoin trading began to enter the golden
period. As the supply was far less than the demand, the value of online trading began to rise. In early November, bitcoin was silent at 29 cents for many days, and then jumped to 36 cents; In February 2011, bitcoin continued to appreciate, and its exchange rate with us dollar
reached 1:1; In 2013, the price of bitcoin achieved a "Big Bang" growth, and hit US $1242 on November 29, 2013, surpassing the gold price of US $1241.98/ounce in the same period. Fierce price fluctuations make market participants face huge speculative risks. Unlike mature capital markets such as stocks and bonds, the depth of bitcoin market is insufficient, and it is mainly held in the hands of large investors with low degree of diversification. Bitcoin price is easily affected by large investors' buying and selling behavior, and also easily manipulated by speculators. At the same time, different countries have different attitudes towards bitcoin, Germany, the United States and other countries hold an open and supportive attitude, and Thailand, Brazil and other countries regard bitcoin related activities
as illegal. Every country's attitude and measures will have a significant impact on the price of bitcoin, especially in the short term
virtual currency is always inferior to real currency< br />
Trojan horse is generally defined as a person or thing that secretly causes damage to the enemy or leads to the downfall of the opponent. In today's world, bitcoin is a "Trojan horse". This kind of virtual currency manipulated by "geeks" attracts naive, innocent and ignorant investors on Wall Street by taking advantage of human greed
Peter Schiff is the CEO of europacific capital and a best-selling writer. He thinks bitcoin is the gold of fools Hugo Salinas price, a very successful Mexican businessman, encouraged the government to accept silver as legal tender. He believes that bitcoin will become a tragic history caused by large-scale speculationa former counterterrorism analyst at the CIA said that terrorists are using innovative technologies to raise funds, one of which is bitcoin. He said it was the first terrorist group to use bitcoin publicly
in general, bitcoin fanatics should follow the advice of these successful Wall Street people: no one is more blind than those who refuse to face them
no matter in any country, bitcoin does not need to be developed in a large scale, because it will affect human society< br />
It is difficult to avoid the typical risks related to the payment system. In a specific virtual community, virtual currency payment activities have evolved into a "real" payment system, facing the typical risks related to the payment system: credit risk, liquidity risk, operational risk and legal risk. The nature, scale and ration of these risks largely depend on the design of the system or the degree of lack of liquidity. It is difficult for the network virtual currency scheme to avoid or control these risks. According to the core principles of important payment system (CP) issued by the bank for International Settlements (BIS), the network virtual currency scheme does not conform to most of the contents of CP, and does not belong to the systemically important payment system. Therefore, it will not cause or transmit shocks to the global financial system. At present, there is no systematic risk in the network currency system outside these virtual communities
2. Lack of corresponding supervision and protection mechanism
in the real economy, the central bank plays the role of lender of last resort and there is no default risk, so it can take actions in the case of payment crisis or unpredictable liquidity shortage to avoid chain reaction. In the network virtual currency scheme, network currency is not the settlement asset. Because network currency simply depends on the credibility of the issuer, it can not be widely accepted as a means of payment, so network currency can not be regarded as a safe currency. In addition, commercial banks are required to accept prudential supervision, which reces the possibility of default. The security of money in commercial bank accounts is higher than that of network currency. A fundamental risk of network currency is that the settlement institution of network currency scheme is not subject to any supervision, no institution is responsible for its behavior, and there is no investor / depositor protection mechanism, which causes the user to bear all the risks
(4) risk of absence of supervision generally speaking, supervision lags behind the development of science and technology. The network virtual currency program was established in the late 1990s, but it was not until 2006 that some government agencies in the United States began to analyze these programs. Due to the lack of supervision and the anonymity, invisibility and difficulty in tracking of its transactions, the network virtual currency scheme is easily used by terrorist activities, fraud, money laundering and other illegal activities. At present, many government departments in many countries are considering whether to recognize or legalize these virtual schemes and bring them into the scope of supervision, so as to support the innovation of currency and payment forms, protect consumers' rights and interests and financial stability, and restrain the use of virtual currency schemes to engage in criminal activities. At present, the uncertainty of the legal status of the virtual currency scheme may also bring challenges to the government authorities
The reputation of Monetary Authority (central bank) is the key factor to determine the effectiveness of its policies, especially monetary policy. The public's trust in fiat money is closely related to the image of the central bank, which pays close attention to its reputation. The ECB will define reputation risk as the risk of deterioration of reputation, credit or public image. As the network currency scheme is related to money and payment, it is generally believed that it belongs to the responsibility of the central bank, so it is necessary to guard against the reputation risk it may bring to the central bank. Although in the case of small scale, the impact of the failure of the network currency scheme is limited, its high volatility and instability also increase the possibility of failure and attract extensive media coverage. If the network currency is allowed to develop continuously without regulation, the central bank may be regarded as dereliction of ty and affect its reputation Compared with the exchange value, the public has a higher recognition of the investment value of network virtual currency, and it is the transaction based on investment that accelerates the formation of virtual currency market. Like other investment markets, the participants of virtual money market will also face the potential losses caused by market risk, credit risk and policy risk. Take the bitcoin as an example: from 2009 to the beginning of 2010, bitcoin was worthless; In the summer of 2010, bitcoin trading began to enter the golden age. Because the supply was far less than the demand, the value of online trading began to rise. In early November, bitcoin was silent at 29 cents for many days, and then jumped to 36 cents; In February 2011, the bitcoin continued to appreciate, and its exchange rate with the US dollar reached 1:1; In 2013, the bitcoin price achieved a "Big Bang" growth, and hit US $1242 on November 29, 2013, exceeding the gold price of US $1241.98/oz in the same period. Fierce price fluctuations make market participants face huge speculative risksunlike mature capital markets such as stocks and bonds, bitcoin market is not deep enough, and it is mainly held in the hands of large investors with low degree of diversification. Bitcoin price is easily affected by large investors' trading behavior and controlled by speculators. At the same time, different countries have different attitudes towards bitcoin. Germany, the United States and other countries hold an open and supportive attitude. Thailand, Brazil and other countries regard bitcoin related activities as illegal. Every country's attitude and measures will have a significant impact on its price, especially in the short term
Money laundering is a professional term in the financial instry, which is the act of legalizing illegal gains. Mainly refers to the illegal income and its income, through various means to conceal, conceal its source and nature, make it legalized in form. In the 1920s, a financial expert from the Chicago Mafia bought a coin operated washing machine and opened a laundry. Every night, he adds illegal money to the settlement of the day's laundry income, and then returns to the tax bureau. After tax, all the illegal income becomes his legal income, which is & lt; Money laundering; The origin of the word
money laundering can coexist with most crimes and is the downstream crime of these crimes. From the judicial point of view, money laundering has become a kind of crime; Crime barriers;, It not only hinders judicial activities, but also encourages criminals to be fearless and encourage them to continue to commit crimes. From the perspective of financial management order, money laundering activities often use the legal financial network to launder money, which not only violates the financial management order, but also seriously destroys the rules of fair competition and the free competition between the main bodies of market economy, thus bringing a certain negative impact on the normal and stable economic order. Money laundering is usually aimed at hiding the source of assets
at the end of October 2013, Hong Kong GBL platform absconded with money, and the whereabouts of more than 20 million RMB were unknown
on the evening of February 28, 2014, the operator of mt.gox, the world's largest bitcoin exchange, announced that all bitcoins on the trading platform had been stolen
the management of Mt. GOx said that after the trading platform was attacked by the Internet in early February 2014, almost all bitcoins traded on the platform disappeared, including about 750000 bitcoins in the user's trading accounts and about 100000 bitcoins held by Mt. GOx itself. According to 28 trading, the loss of about 467 million U.S. dollars
since it is a proct on the Internet, we should always guard against shadow criminals. If they are careless, they can steal everything from you. You know, tigers still have time to nap
bitcoin risk 2
the virtual bitcoin mine developed by Zhongben Cong can proce 21 million, which will be completed in 2140. From the first batch of 50 after 2009 to now, more than 13 million have been excavated, and there are still 8 million in the remaining 100 years. It sounds like the method of locking in the total quantity is used to increase the price. Does anyone think that since it is a virtual mine, someone will design a second or countless similar mines in the future. Moreover, with the development of the Internet, the proction process of the virtual currency designed later is more complex and interesting than bitcoin
the popular digital currencies in 2013 include bitcoin, Leyte coin, zeta coin, pennies (Internet), invisible gold bar, red coin, pole coin, barbecue coin and prime currency. At present, hundreds of digital currencies are issued all over the world
in a few years, there will be thousands of virtual e-currency loans. The final result of development will be nothing to lose and all the money will be thrown on the floor
bitcoin risk 3
when bitcoin appears, it has already played a role in disrupting international finance. Countries must not watch virtual currency signal to disrupt their own financial markets. As a result, the major league of international financial organizations must crack down on or force the rectification of the virtual goods market, just like international terrorists
in addition, virtual currency has no ability to resist risks at all, and does not have the standard of credit rating at all. At that time, thousands of virtual currencies will return to the starting point of game currency
after a period of false speculation, the indivials or organizations of Zuozhuang have quietly left one after another, and the remaining virtual currency owners will face the end of "poor people kill evil people". Even if they fight hard, it will not help, and the result must be very miserable.
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