The development prospect of virtual currency in China
Publish: 2021-04-23 01:19:28
1. In short, bitcoin is a kind of virtual currency, which does not rely on any monetary institutions to issue, but relies on a specific algorithm, generated through a large number of calculations. After the bitcoin address is bound with the bank card, you can buy bitcoin with RMB recharge. There is a K-line chart, and the price changes in real time. Similar to stocks, you can buy and sell bitcoin at any time
after this madness, where should virtual currency go? According to the analysts of foresight Instry Research Institute, the future development trend of the instry mainly includes the following points:
1. Virtual currency may continue to develop for a long time. Due to the high security of virtual currency, it can't be issued at will, and Chinese and foreign people can't identify the user's identity information in the transaction process, a large number of people have a crazy pursuit of virtual currency
2. Virtual currency may be involved more widely in the future. As long as someone recognizes and uses virtual currency, the existence of virtual currency has value
virtual currency has been developing so far, prosperity and bubbles, wealth and dreams, questioning and supervision are all on the way. Investment is risky, so we should be cautious. At present, such playing methods as bitcoin have not been approved by the regulatory authorities. It is suggested that ordinary investors should participate in the game within their ability.
after this madness, where should virtual currency go? According to the analysts of foresight Instry Research Institute, the future development trend of the instry mainly includes the following points:
1. Virtual currency may continue to develop for a long time. Due to the high security of virtual currency, it can't be issued at will, and Chinese and foreign people can't identify the user's identity information in the transaction process, a large number of people have a crazy pursuit of virtual currency
2. Virtual currency may be involved more widely in the future. As long as someone recognizes and uses virtual currency, the existence of virtual currency has value
virtual currency has been developing so far, prosperity and bubbles, wealth and dreams, questioning and supervision are all on the way. Investment is risky, so we should be cautious. At present, such playing methods as bitcoin have not been approved by the regulatory authorities. It is suggested that ordinary investors should participate in the game within their ability.
2. Here's bitcoin
bitcoin price has been cut by the waist
how to implement blockchain application is still the main problem. In addition to bitcoin, the large-scale application of blockchain in other scenarios has not yet reached the commercial stage. Looking back to the second half of 2017, the price of bitcoin almost reached a new high every day, and finally reached the peak in the South Korean exchange with the highest premium in the world - about 140000 yuan per piece. On June 3, 2018, as of press time, coinbase bitcoin trading platform quoted 49688 yuan, and the price of bitcoin has been cut. Since the beginning of this year, the price of bitcoin has rarely seen eye popping ups and downs, and the overall trend of monthly decline
bitcoin development status
according to the data of the in-depth analysis report on business model innovation and investment opportunities of the blockchain instry released by the foresight Instry Research Institute, bitcoin prices showed a downward trend in May, with the overall market value falling from US $157.3 billion at the beginning of the month to US $127.4 billion at the end of the month, a decrease of 19%; In addition, there are 444000 active addresses and 197000 transfers per day. From the trend point of view, the number of active addresses and daily transfers are positively correlated with the transaction price. In May, the overall trend is volatile, and the downward trend is very obvious
reasons for the steady decline of bitcoin in the past half year
how to understand the "steady decline" of bitcoin in the past half year? There are two main reasons: firstly, the most important reason is that institutional investors and speculators who have accumulated a large number of "profit" are cashing in their profits and leaving the market; Secondly, before the blockchain instry has no real application and profit model, the rise of bitcoin price can only be regarded as speculative speculation. In addition, it is an undeniable fact that the Central Bank of China has made a decisive move to close the bitcoin trading platform, which has achieved remarkable results in preventing bitcoin speculation
at present, the domestic bitcoin exchanges have basically moved to foreign countries, which has nothing to do with China. Investors operate on those platforms at their own risk
the current market is not very good. Only when the market is good, can investors find ways to participate in bitcoin investment. As the total market value of the coin circle is still small, with more blockchain applications, there is still potential in the future
over consumed blockchain
e to the "tepid" price of bitcoin, blockchain, as its underlying technology, has reached the level of "known to all women and children", and even surpassed bitcoin in recent years
recently, a series of related reports are suspected of making up for the number and full of hype, and blockchain has obviously been over consumed. In addition to bitcoin, the large-scale application of blockchain in other scenarios has not yet reached the commercial stage
with the graal deepening of the understanding of blockchain technology, domestic enterprises have laid out blockchain technology, platforms and applications, including Internet enterprises such as network, Tencent, Ali, Jingdong, Netease, major banks, financial enterprises such as Ping An of China and Huawei. In terms of application, China actively explores and promotes blockchain + applications in the form of alliance chain and private chain to help solve the pain points of related instries, improve efficiency and rece costs.
bitcoin price has been cut by the waist
how to implement blockchain application is still the main problem. In addition to bitcoin, the large-scale application of blockchain in other scenarios has not yet reached the commercial stage. Looking back to the second half of 2017, the price of bitcoin almost reached a new high every day, and finally reached the peak in the South Korean exchange with the highest premium in the world - about 140000 yuan per piece. On June 3, 2018, as of press time, coinbase bitcoin trading platform quoted 49688 yuan, and the price of bitcoin has been cut. Since the beginning of this year, the price of bitcoin has rarely seen eye popping ups and downs, and the overall trend of monthly decline
bitcoin development status
according to the data of the in-depth analysis report on business model innovation and investment opportunities of the blockchain instry released by the foresight Instry Research Institute, bitcoin prices showed a downward trend in May, with the overall market value falling from US $157.3 billion at the beginning of the month to US $127.4 billion at the end of the month, a decrease of 19%; In addition, there are 444000 active addresses and 197000 transfers per day. From the trend point of view, the number of active addresses and daily transfers are positively correlated with the transaction price. In May, the overall trend is volatile, and the downward trend is very obvious
reasons for the steady decline of bitcoin in the past half year
how to understand the "steady decline" of bitcoin in the past half year? There are two main reasons: firstly, the most important reason is that institutional investors and speculators who have accumulated a large number of "profit" are cashing in their profits and leaving the market; Secondly, before the blockchain instry has no real application and profit model, the rise of bitcoin price can only be regarded as speculative speculation. In addition, it is an undeniable fact that the Central Bank of China has made a decisive move to close the bitcoin trading platform, which has achieved remarkable results in preventing bitcoin speculation
at present, the domestic bitcoin exchanges have basically moved to foreign countries, which has nothing to do with China. Investors operate on those platforms at their own risk
the current market is not very good. Only when the market is good, can investors find ways to participate in bitcoin investment. As the total market value of the coin circle is still small, with more blockchain applications, there is still potential in the future
over consumed blockchain
e to the "tepid" price of bitcoin, blockchain, as its underlying technology, has reached the level of "known to all women and children", and even surpassed bitcoin in recent years
recently, a series of related reports are suspected of making up for the number and full of hype, and blockchain has obviously been over consumed. In addition to bitcoin, the large-scale application of blockchain in other scenarios has not yet reached the commercial stage
with the graal deepening of the understanding of blockchain technology, domestic enterprises have laid out blockchain technology, platforms and applications, including Internet enterprises such as network, Tencent, Ali, Jingdong, Netease, major banks, financial enterprises such as Ping An of China and Huawei. In terms of application, China actively explores and promotes blockchain + applications in the form of alliance chain and private chain to help solve the pain points of related instries, improve efficiency and rece costs.
3. The prospect of virtual currency in China is good. Virtual currency is called a special Internet commodity in China. People can buy and sell it freely at their own risk, but it denies its monetary attribute.
4.
In my opinion, we can start with mainstream value currencies such as BTC now. Judging from the trend of BTC in the past year, it is basically at the bottom now. Even if it is possible to fall further, it will not fall too much. Ten years of history shows that BTC is certainly valuable, and BTC will definitely appreciate in the future. After all, it is the gold of the currency circle, which is rare and has the greatest consensus. The above is just a personal statement and does not constitute an investment proposal. Investment should be cautious! Finally, I declare that if you lose money by investing in virtual currency, I will not bear any legal responsibility
5. The emergence of virtual currency is not accidental, it is a part of the history of currency evolution, is the crystallization of digital technology revolution. Looking back on the history of money, any form of money from birth to maturity will experience doubt and even exclusion. Like the traditional currency, it is not naturally perfect. It is constantly improving in the process of development to better adapt to and serve the proctive forces. The virtual currency based on network is limited by credit constraints, but the innovative virtual currency is breaking through the constraints of region, nationality, culture, credit and so on. There is no doubt that virtual currency represents the future development direction of money. Virtual currency will also have a more perfect solution for sovereign currency. At present, bitcoin trading platform, jucoin trading platform and Youxun trading platform are more famous and have investment value in China. I believe there will be more in the future.
6. Have you made PI coins
7. The price of mining machines of four pieces of technology is regulated. According to the equipment and memory you choose, the price will be different.
8. I started playing Yuan Tong coin for four years. The instry is in a mess. There is no regulation. There are people who make money, but if the website runs away, there is no way to protect their rights.
9. I think the emergence of Internet finance is a good thing, but also a matter of keeping pace with the times. The Internet is just a tool, and finance itself is risky. Because the Internet is fast, it can amplify the risk and make the problem break out in a short time. In fact, the development and maturity of any instry is trial and error step by step. Internet finance has the following risks:
the first is the risk of credit default, that is, whether the Internet financial procts can achieve their promised return on investment. For example, the current yield of Alibaba's yu'ebao is less than 5%, and the nature of yu'ebao is money market fund. However, the expected return rate of Baifa is as high as 8%, which makes us want to ask, what is the basis of Baifa's final investment? Under the background of sluggish global economic growth, declining potential growth rate of China's economy, widespread overcapacity in domestic manufacturing instry, insufficient opening of domestic service instry, and graally emerging risks of shadow banking system, how to achieve high returns of
8%? In addition to bridge loans for enterprises, and financing for real estate developers and local financing platforms, what are the high-yield investment channels
the second is the term mismatch risk, that is, the investment assets of Internet financial procts have a long term, while the liabilities have a short term. Once the liabilities fail to roll on time, liquidity risk may occur. However, one of the major functions of financial institutions is to convert short-term funds into long-term funds, so financial institutions will face different degrees of maturity mismatch, and the key is the degree of mismatch. Lenovo has made a promise to allow investors to redeem at any time, which undoubtedly exacerbates the liquidity risk to the greatest extent. It should be allowed to redeem at any time and give an expected yield of 8%, which certainly cheers inexperienced investors, but also makes investors with rich experience have doubts
the third is the lender of last resort risk. As mentioned before,
although commercial banks also face the risk of maturity mismatch, and financial procts issued by commercial banks also face the risk of credit default and maturity mismatch, an important difference compared with Internet finance is that commercial banks can obtain the lender of last resort support from the central bank in the end. Of course, this support comes at a great cost. For example, commercial banks must pay 20% of the statutory deposit reserve, their own capital adequacy ratio must be higher than 8%, and they must meet the requirements of regulatory authorities on risk provision and liquidity ratio. In contrast, Internet finance is currently facing the situation of lack of supervision, so the operating cost is low. However, if there is no protection of lender of last resort, who will pay for the default of Internet
financial procts? Do Internet financial enterprises have the ability to build a strong independent risk defense system
in addition to the above traditional risks, China's Internet financial procts also face a series of unique risks. The author will sort out these risks from high to low in order of importance as follows:
one is legal risk. At present, the Internet finance instry is still in the state of no threshold, no standard and no supervision. As a result, some internet financial procts (especially wealth management procts) wander in the gray area between legal and illegal, and may touch the high-voltage line of "illegal absorption of public deposits" or "illegal fund-raising" if they are not careful. For example, some time ago, Tianli loan in Hubei Province was put on record for illegally absorbing public deposits after it was run and stopped running half a year ago< Dragons and fishes jumbled together in China's China's Internet banking field e to lack of barriers and standards. BR and
the second is to increase the difficulty of the central bank's monetary and credit regulation. On the one hand, Internet financial innovation makes the central bank's traditional monetary policy intermediate target face a series of challenges. For example, should virtual currency (such as Q currency) be included in M1? Another example is that Internet financial enterprises are not constrained by the legal deposit reserve system, which actually leads to the amplification of monetary multiplier. Another example is how to look at the interaction and transformation between traditional currency and virtual currency? On the other hand, the development of Internet finance also weakens the effect of the central government's
credit policy. For example, if the traditional financing channels of real estate developers are tightened, it is likely to consider financing through Internet finance. In fact, the great development of China's Internet financial procts in the past year is related to the tightening of the supervision of the shadow banking system by the Chinese government, resulting in local financing platforms, real estate developers and other market entities having to find new financing sources< The third is the risk of personal credit information being abused. First of all, through data mining and data analysis, Internet financial enterprises obtain personal and corporate credit information, and use it as the main basis for credit rating. Is this reasonable and legal? Secondly, whether the information obtained through the above channels can truly comprehensively and accurately measure the credit risk of the subject being rated, and whether there are selective bias and systematic bias< Fourth, information asymmetry and information transparency. As mentioned earlier, the Internet finance instry is in a state of lack of supervision. So, who will verify the authenticity of the information provided by the ultimate borrower? Is there an independent third party that can control the risk? How to prevent Internet financial enterprises from self-monitoring and theft? After all, the survey shows that only about 20% of Internet P2P companies have professional risk control teams< The fifth is technology risk. Different from the traditional commercial banks with highly independent communication network, Internet financial enterprises are in the open network communication system, and the security of TCP / IP protocol is facing great criticism. However, the current key management and encryption technology are not perfect, which makes the Internet financial system vulnerable to computer viruses and network hackers. At present, considering the high risk of theft of Internet financial accounts, many people are hindered from participating in Internet finance, which is by no means without professional financial or IT personnel. Therefore, Internet enterprises must continuously invest heavily in their own trading systems and data systems to ensure their security, which will undoubtedly increase the operating costs of Internet financial enterprises and weaken their cost advantages over traditional financial instries< As mentioned above, since China's Internet financial enterprises are facing so many risks at the initial stage, should they slow down or even stifle this valuable financial innovation? Naturally, the answer is No. Relevant parties
should promote the steady and sustainable development of Internet Finance on the basis of full consideration of potential risks. The relevant suggestions put forward by the author include: first, the self-discipline of the instry should be fully strengthened. To replace government approval with instry access can help regulate the development of the instry and avoid excessive government intervention by strengthening the role of instry associations. At present, Zhongguancun Internet Finance Instry Association and Internet Finance thousand people association are beneficial attempts; Secondly,
we should strengthen investor ecation and fully remind investors of the possible risks of investing in Internet financial procts, which is significantly higher than that of investing in similar traditional financial procts; Third, we should strengthen the network security management to prevent the system paralysis caused by hacker attack from a higher level; Fourth, regulators should build a flexible, targeted and flexible regulatory system, not only to make up for the lack of regulation, but also to avoid excessive regulation.
the first is the risk of credit default, that is, whether the Internet financial procts can achieve their promised return on investment. For example, the current yield of Alibaba's yu'ebao is less than 5%, and the nature of yu'ebao is money market fund. However, the expected return rate of Baifa is as high as 8%, which makes us want to ask, what is the basis of Baifa's final investment? Under the background of sluggish global economic growth, declining potential growth rate of China's economy, widespread overcapacity in domestic manufacturing instry, insufficient opening of domestic service instry, and graally emerging risks of shadow banking system, how to achieve high returns of
8%? In addition to bridge loans for enterprises, and financing for real estate developers and local financing platforms, what are the high-yield investment channels
the second is the term mismatch risk, that is, the investment assets of Internet financial procts have a long term, while the liabilities have a short term. Once the liabilities fail to roll on time, liquidity risk may occur. However, one of the major functions of financial institutions is to convert short-term funds into long-term funds, so financial institutions will face different degrees of maturity mismatch, and the key is the degree of mismatch. Lenovo has made a promise to allow investors to redeem at any time, which undoubtedly exacerbates the liquidity risk to the greatest extent. It should be allowed to redeem at any time and give an expected yield of 8%, which certainly cheers inexperienced investors, but also makes investors with rich experience have doubts
the third is the lender of last resort risk. As mentioned before,
although commercial banks also face the risk of maturity mismatch, and financial procts issued by commercial banks also face the risk of credit default and maturity mismatch, an important difference compared with Internet finance is that commercial banks can obtain the lender of last resort support from the central bank in the end. Of course, this support comes at a great cost. For example, commercial banks must pay 20% of the statutory deposit reserve, their own capital adequacy ratio must be higher than 8%, and they must meet the requirements of regulatory authorities on risk provision and liquidity ratio. In contrast, Internet finance is currently facing the situation of lack of supervision, so the operating cost is low. However, if there is no protection of lender of last resort, who will pay for the default of Internet
financial procts? Do Internet financial enterprises have the ability to build a strong independent risk defense system
in addition to the above traditional risks, China's Internet financial procts also face a series of unique risks. The author will sort out these risks from high to low in order of importance as follows:
one is legal risk. At present, the Internet finance instry is still in the state of no threshold, no standard and no supervision. As a result, some internet financial procts (especially wealth management procts) wander in the gray area between legal and illegal, and may touch the high-voltage line of "illegal absorption of public deposits" or "illegal fund-raising" if they are not careful. For example, some time ago, Tianli loan in Hubei Province was put on record for illegally absorbing public deposits after it was run and stopped running half a year ago< Dragons and fishes jumbled together in China's China's Internet banking field e to lack of barriers and standards. BR and
the second is to increase the difficulty of the central bank's monetary and credit regulation. On the one hand, Internet financial innovation makes the central bank's traditional monetary policy intermediate target face a series of challenges. For example, should virtual currency (such as Q currency) be included in M1? Another example is that Internet financial enterprises are not constrained by the legal deposit reserve system, which actually leads to the amplification of monetary multiplier. Another example is how to look at the interaction and transformation between traditional currency and virtual currency? On the other hand, the development of Internet finance also weakens the effect of the central government's
credit policy. For example, if the traditional financing channels of real estate developers are tightened, it is likely to consider financing through Internet finance. In fact, the great development of China's Internet financial procts in the past year is related to the tightening of the supervision of the shadow banking system by the Chinese government, resulting in local financing platforms, real estate developers and other market entities having to find new financing sources< The third is the risk of personal credit information being abused. First of all, through data mining and data analysis, Internet financial enterprises obtain personal and corporate credit information, and use it as the main basis for credit rating. Is this reasonable and legal? Secondly, whether the information obtained through the above channels can truly comprehensively and accurately measure the credit risk of the subject being rated, and whether there are selective bias and systematic bias< Fourth, information asymmetry and information transparency. As mentioned earlier, the Internet finance instry is in a state of lack of supervision. So, who will verify the authenticity of the information provided by the ultimate borrower? Is there an independent third party that can control the risk? How to prevent Internet financial enterprises from self-monitoring and theft? After all, the survey shows that only about 20% of Internet P2P companies have professional risk control teams< The fifth is technology risk. Different from the traditional commercial banks with highly independent communication network, Internet financial enterprises are in the open network communication system, and the security of TCP / IP protocol is facing great criticism. However, the current key management and encryption technology are not perfect, which makes the Internet financial system vulnerable to computer viruses and network hackers. At present, considering the high risk of theft of Internet financial accounts, many people are hindered from participating in Internet finance, which is by no means without professional financial or IT personnel. Therefore, Internet enterprises must continuously invest heavily in their own trading systems and data systems to ensure their security, which will undoubtedly increase the operating costs of Internet financial enterprises and weaken their cost advantages over traditional financial instries< As mentioned above, since China's Internet financial enterprises are facing so many risks at the initial stage, should they slow down or even stifle this valuable financial innovation? Naturally, the answer is No. Relevant parties
should promote the steady and sustainable development of Internet Finance on the basis of full consideration of potential risks. The relevant suggestions put forward by the author include: first, the self-discipline of the instry should be fully strengthened. To replace government approval with instry access can help regulate the development of the instry and avoid excessive government intervention by strengthening the role of instry associations. At present, Zhongguancun Internet Finance Instry Association and Internet Finance thousand people association are beneficial attempts; Secondly,
we should strengthen investor ecation and fully remind investors of the possible risks of investing in Internet financial procts, which is significantly higher than that of investing in similar traditional financial procts; Third, we should strengthen the network security management to prevent the system paralysis caused by hacker attack from a higher level; Fourth, regulators should build a flexible, targeted and flexible regulatory system, not only to make up for the lack of regulation, but also to avoid excessive regulation.
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