The impact of Sino US trade war on virtual currency

1. To put it simply, after trump signed the memoranm of trade dialogue yesterday, Wall Street suffered a bloody wash, US stocks plummeted and the panic index VIX rose significantly. In terms of foreign exchange, the risk averse yen soared: USD / JPY fell below 105, the lowest to 104.62, the lowest level since November 2016. Xu Yaxin, a senior analyst at fx168, said the US / China tensions will curb global trade, push up import prices, rece domestic consumption in both countries, and lead to a global economic slowdown.

2. According to the general financial theory, the value of US dollar is negatively correlated with its net export. That is to say, the net export of US dollars increases and its value decreases, while the net export of US dollars decreases and its value rises

when the United States starts a trade war, it is equivalent to recing the net export of US dollars, so its value will rise

as a relative currency, the value of RMB relative to the US dollar will decline under the circumstances of interest rate increase, tax rection and trade war, that is, there is pressure to depreciate.

3. Almost no impact.

4. China has more than US $3 trillion in reserves and sufficient funds. It is not difficult to quickly start domestic demand to balance the impact of the trade war. At the weekend, xiong'an and other major projects came to China; China's economy has no worries; With the economic foundation, the stock market also has a foundation. Since the trade war, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen and the gem index has risen. This is determined by the trend position of the two indexes themselves. The trade war only changes the path and time.

5.

For China, the trade war, on the one hand, temporarily affected China's economic development, on the other hand, promoted the development of China's high and new technology

Therefore, this Sino US trade war is a double-edged sword for China. It will be a rare opportunity for China's economic development to see how the Chinese government leads us to face it

6. Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC international, commented that this round of trade war will resonate with the monetary policy of China and the United States, and we need to be highly vigilant against secondary risks. Under the impact of the trade war, the medium and long-term performance of US stocks is worrisome, and China's monetary policy is difficult to tighten. Therefore, the competition between RMB and US dollar will intensify, and the uncertainty of the two-way fluctuation trend of RMB exchange rate will be further enhanced.

7.

1、 The impact of economic and trade frictions on China's economic development can be summarized as "influential, controllable and need to be dealt with"

From the macro-economic perspective, economic and trade frictions have increased the external risks and downward pressure of China's economy to a certain extent

in 2017, domestic demand contributed more than 90% to economic growth; Trade dependence dropped to 33%, lower than the world average of 42%. As far as economic and trade frictions are concerned, the impact is limited

From the perspective of enterprises, economic and trade frictions have an impact on some export-oriented enterprises, which may lead to problems such as increasing costs and decreasing orders. Enterprises are faced with the challenges of proction rection, closing down and restructuring. Electronic communication, electrical machinery, wood processing, chemical procts and other instries are relatively affected

However, at the same time, it should be noted that the Ministry of Commerce of China has made it clear that the increased tax revenue in the counter measures will be mainly used for the damaged enterprises and employees, encouraging enterprises to adjust the import structure, etc., so as to minimize the losses. The recent meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to give more prominence to employment in the second half of the year, which fully reflects China's full assessment and positive response to economic and trade frictions

Second, the trade war between China and the United States has a great impact on the United States:

the trade sanctions imposed by the United States on China have been transformed into "sanctions" against its own enterprises to varying degrees. Due to the rising costs caused by the trade war, some affected American enterprises have begun to rece proction or lay off staff, and some enterprises are planning to move their proction lines out of the United States. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce warned that a total of 2.6 million U.S. jobs could be at risk

after China imposed tariffs on American agricultural procts, American agriculture suffered great losses, which forced the trump government to subsidize farmers. The imposition of tariffs on automobiles originated in the United States has affected US automobile exports to China and squeezed US market share in China

extended information:

in the process of trade war, China, on the one hand, faced tit for tat with the United States, on the other hand, won the support of the international community

First, adjust and improve relations with neighboring countries and strengthen bilateral economic cooperation

The second is to resort to the WTO and seek the support of WTO rules and international public opinion

Thirdly, the United States was countered by imposing a 25% tariff on American soybeans, and at the same time, India and other countries were exempted from import tariffs on soybeans and animal feed

Fourthly, we should continue to promote bilateral and multilateral free trade. Since 2002, China has signed 16 free trade agreements with 24 countries and regions. At present, 13 free trade area negotiations are in progress, and joint feasibility study or upgrading joint research on free trade agreements is carried out with 10 countries

8. It is not known whether the authorities have made any specific and detailed analysis and judgment on the impact of the US trade war on China's economy. However, there is no consensus among all sectors of the society:

Zhou Xiaochuan, former president of the central bank, once RMB, said that the impact of the US China trade war on China is not significant, mainly because confidence has suffered a major blow. Recently, Professor Wei Jie of Tsinghua University also talked about the impact of the Sino US trade war. He believed that the key is to maintain the foreign exchange reserves of US $3 trillion and the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate

the market read out his subtext: under the background of Sino US trade war, his conclusion is impossible. Because maintaining the stability of RMB exchange rate needs to follow the United States to implement the tight monetary policy, but the tight monetary policy will have a serious impact on the national economic growth. Under the situation of China's sustained economic downturn, the implementation of tight monetary policy will cost more. Since the beginning of this year, the two consecutive targeted reserve rate rections also show that appropriate monetary easing has become a reality. It is only a short-term move to keep RMB exchange rate stable through foreign exchange control.

9. It must be a negative impact
1. As a result of the war, who benefited? The result of World War II has already told you. Trade wars are no exception
2. Now the trade war is just propaganda of news, and it has not officially started. It's all beginning to sit down - negotiation
therefore, the impact on China's economy is negative, as well as on the United States.