Expectation of virtual currency

1、 Common analysis of virtual currency (1) bitcoin solution is designed and created by Japanese programmer Nakamoto (alias) in 2009, and it is the most successful and controversial network currency at present. Bitcoin scheme is based on P2P network architecture, which has been operating in the world, and can be used for all kinds of virtual and real goods and services transactions

(1) from the analysis of the impact on the amount of money, although it is difficult to analyze the extent to which the network currency scheme creates money in the case of lack of information

(2) from the analysis of the impact on the speed of money circulation, the use of cash and money statistics, the impact of the technological innovation brought by the network currency scheme on the speed of money circulation is not clear

as an Internet instry, it largely depends on the number of active internet currency scheme users. If the network currency is widely accepted, it will have a substitution effect on the real currency of the central bank, thus recing the use of cash in transactions
in this case, the scale of the central bank's balance sheet will be reced, and its ability to influence short-term interest rates will also be weakened. The central bank will need to fight against risks through ways such as setting minimum reserves for cyber currencies. Substitution effect will aggravate the difficulty of monetary statistics and affect the relationship between monetary statistics and inflation, which is not concive to the realization of long-term price stability. In addition, the issuance of network currency outside the central bank and the expansion of virtual credit will have an impact on the central bank's interest rate decision in the economy and weaken the central bank's monetary control

(3) from the analysis of the interaction between network currency and real economy, network currency can act as a real commodity trading medium and have an impact on real GDP

(1) money supply and other actions taken by currency issuers. For example: to achieve a fixed or semi fixed exchange rate by intervening in the market

(3) the virtual community with clear and transparent policies and advanced security measures is easier to boost confidence and the currency is stronger

(4) the reputation of network currency issuers in fulfilling their commitments. There is no "lender of last resort" in the virtual community, and the trust gained by the issuer is crucial to the exchange rate of internet currency

(5)
speculation on the future value of Internet money and cyber attacks on virtual communities. Due to the immaturity of the system, low trading, speculative activities and network attacks, the two-way network currency scheme is inherently unstable
qualitative. At present, the trading volume of these network currencies is small and the correlation with the real economy is low, so the stability of the financial system will not be affected. However, if Internet money becomes a substitute for traditional money in the future, it will bring instability to the financial system and even distort the relative prices of goods and services. The impact of network currency system on the financial system largely depends on the number of active users and the number of merchants who are willing to accept virtual currency for real transactions. In addition, virtual currency has only exchange value and no use value. Generally, network currency is not based on assets with intrinsic value and is not supported by central bank credit. At present, these network monetary systems are not allowed to lend
or borrow funds, so it can not pose a threat to the stability of the financial system, but we should pay close attention to its development. If there is any change in the future, it will undoubtedly have an impact on the financial system

in a specific virtual community, virtual currency payment activities have evolved into a "real" payment system, facing typical risks related to the payment system: credit risk, liquidity risk, operational risk and legal risk. The nature, scale and ration of these risks are largely determined by the design of the system or the degree of lack of liquidity, so it is difficult for the network virtual currency scheme to avoid or control these risks. According to the core principles of payment system (CP) issued by the bank for International Settlements (BIS), the network virtual currency scheme does not conform to most of the contents of CP, and does not belong to the systemically important payment system. Therefore, it will not cause
or transmit shocks in the global financial system. At present, there is no systematic risk in the network currency system outside these virtual communities

2. Lack of corresponding supervision and protection mechanism

in the real economy, the central bank plays the role of lender of last resort and has no default risk, so it can take actions in the case of payment crisis or unpredictable liquidity shortage to avoid chain reaction. However, in the network virtual currency scheme
it is impossible to use network currency as settlement asset. Because network currency simply depends on the credibility of the issuer, it can not be widely accepted as a means of payment, so network currency can not be regarded as a safe currency. In addition, commercial banks are required to accept prudential supervision, which reces the possibility of default, and the security of money in commercial bank accounts is higher than that of network currency. A fundamental risk of network currency is that the settlement institution of network currency scheme is not subject to any supervision, no institution is responsible for its behavior, and there is no investor / depositor protection mechanism, which causes the user to bear all the risks

virtual currency is always inferior to real currency< br />

1、 7 * 24 hours trading

the trading time of digital currency is very long, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year. As long as you like, you can trade whenever you want. There is no time limit

friends who have worked in stocks and futures know that stocks and futures have trading time limits. A few hours of trading time in a day is not enough. Digital currency is a real all-weather trading, which can meet the needs of friends who trade in different periods of time. You can trade whenever you are free, even on weekends, It's just so willful

there is no limit on price rise and price fall in the trading of digital currency, that is to say, it can rise and fall freely without any limit. You can say that there is a huge income space, but you can also think that there is too much risk. This is a matter of different opinions. There are good and bad, because the income and risk are positively related. Digital currency trading platform "currency exchange"

the price demand of the market can be truly reflected without the limit of rise and fall, because the rise and fall of the price is a very natural process. When everyone is optimistic, it will rise, and when they are not optimistic, it will fall. This is the law of price fluctuation, and the limit of rise and fall only adds human intervention to the price fluctuation to slow down the price fluctuation, But it can't really stop the price movement. Therefore, there is no limit on price fluctuation, which is the most real price fluctuation and truly meets the market demand and expectation

for example, we can buy at a low price and then sell at a high price to earn the price difference (buy long and be bullish); You can also sell at a high price first, and then come back at a low price to earn a difference (sell short and put). The operation steps are almost the same. It's just a direction of business

There is no definition and distinction between game currency and stock, derivative financial instruments, especially electronic currency. In fact, there is an internal thread that can run through these different forms of virtual currency, which is the performance maturity of personalized value. We can summarize it logically as follows:
Bank e-money
Bank e-money was initially a kind of "pseudo virtual money". It only has the form of virtual currency, such as digitization and symbolization, but it does not have the essence of virtual currency and has nothing to do with personalization. For example, it is just the counterpart of paper money; It may be issued by the central bank; It may be in the same market as the money market. However, bank e-money has broken through the extension of money, that is, it can also be issued not by the central bank, but by information service providers, as was the case with several early e-money. The second breakthrough is the liquidity of bank e-money, which far exceeds that of ordinary money. Therefore, it implies a challenge to the pricing power of currency price level. For example, in overnight lending, if the same money is turned over several times in the form of electronic money, although from the traditional monetary point of view, nothing has happened, but from the perspective of virtual money circulation speed, it has actually changed the conditions of money price level
credit information currency
stock is the most typical credit information currency. Its essence is virtual and it is a kind of virtual currency with personalized characteristics. It is the most realistic foundation of the current virtual economy. Stock market and derivative financial instrument market constitute a large-scale and unified virtual money market. They are not only based on entity business, but also supported by a wide range of information services such as trust business and insurance business. The so-called unified market refers to that the market as a whole can be exchanged with the money market at the overall level of national income. Historically, only when money forms a unified market, that is, the main body of the national economy is monetized, can the adjustment of money quantity and interest rate on the national economy be discussed. The same is true for the virtual economy. This issue is not without dispute. Although the scale of the virtual economy is several times larger than that of the real economy, a large part of the real economy has not entered the unified market. If the game currency is compared with stocks, its progress in this respect is far from satisfactory. Only through the two stages of entertainment instrialization and instrial entertainment, it is possible to reach the level of unified market
analyzing the stock market and derivative financial instrument market, the biggest difference between the stock market and the general money market is that its circulation speed cannot be directly determined by the central bank. For example, as a virtual currency, the price level of stock index can not be directly determined by the central bank like the interest rate, but by the so-called "confidence" of people. The fundamentals of the central bank and the real capital market can only indirectly determine the stock market, not directly. So I think the stock market is an information market, not a money market
compared with the mature virtual money market, the main characteristics of the stock market are incomplete. The stock market integrates the noise at all reference points (i.e. indivial gain and loss values) into a unified reference value, which is combined with the standard value (utility value on the basis and general equilibrium value) to form the continuous fluctuation of the market around the utility value. Although it is different from the money market with the central bank as the center for orderly centripetal movement, it is not different from the money market. From the point of view of the real virtual money market, the characteristic of this market is the incommensurable personalized fixed value. In this sense, the centralized stock market has not achieved this function, and the independent role of the stock market as the so-called "casino" has not been played. Thirdly,
the fundamental function of personalized credit voucher
virtual currency is to synthesize value on the spot of personality, rather than to determine a rational value in isolation at an equilibrium point separated from the real world. The significance of virtual currency is to establish a value system centered on the final consumer. After the full realization of virtual currency, the single currency with general equivalent function will tend to be backward. Game currency is the experimental field of virtual currency at a higher stage, and it is difficult to be a major task. The ideal virtual currency is the value symbol of the real world. In the general equivalent exchange, the specific use value and the corresponding subject of the specific use value, namely the non-homogeneous needs and personalized needs of people, are completely filtered out. Virtual currency will change all this, through the virtual way, people's heterogeneous needs and personalized needs will be anchored to the fundamentals by indivial reference point, and the value will be synthesized. Therefore, virtual currency must have two sides, one is to have the function of commodity exchange, the other is to have the function of barter. Through the former to overcome the relativity and subjectivity of value, through the latter to achieve personalized value confirmation. In order to achieve this goal, virtual currency must realize a huge transformation, which is to transform to dialogue system and become interactive currency. The bargaining here is aimed at the level of currency price. Recall that the transformation from text to dialogue, which has been realized for decades, is the direction of the transformation of virtual currency. The value of game currency is uncertain. When people exchange game currency, it is uncertain whether the ultimate happiness they may get is above or below the currency value until they participate in the game. The game is a dialogue process. Of course, various value-added functions of game currency have not been developed in combination with personalized information services. If this kind of value-added business is fully developed, game currency will not be used because of the different businesses providing services, which may become an advantage over stocks
a fully personalized virtual currency may be a kind of currency card with additional information, and its value is to be confirmed. Virtual currency with specific undetermined function and resial value, on the one hand, its information can have room for reinterpretation like text, on the other hand, it has the potential of karaoke like redevelopment. Its information value has an open interface and can be added again. If they are exchanged in the secondary market like the stock market, they may float up and down in the basic par value with their personalized information, and they will have more attractiveness like stocks. Game currency only has the function of value circulation, but not the function of market platform, so it is only an imperfect virtual currency. The reason is the lack of corresponding instrial base