Building houses to earn gold coins
the Chinese meaning of frm is financial risk manager. The financial risk manager (FRM) examination is held simultaneously in more than 40 cities around the world in May and mid to late November every year
GARP is the world's largest and most authoritative international risk management organization with more than 150000 members from 195 countries. GARP is a non-profit independent institution and one of the main consulting institutions of bis in risk management. Its purpose is to promote the information exchange in risk management, carry out the qualification examination of risk management, and formulate the technical specifications and evaluation standards in the field of financial risk management. Since 1997, the financial risk manager (FRM) qualification examination implemented by GARP has been recognized and supported by European and American multinational financial companies, regulators, especially Wall Street. Nowadays, frm qualification certificate has become one of the requirements of many international financial institutions and risk management departments of multinational corporations. In order to promote the development of risk management in China, GARP established a regional branch in China in 2001, established the Beijing examination center, and implemented the first global unified examination in Chinese mainland in 2002, and achieved success in Beijing. Domestic financial regulatory authorities, financial institutions and large enterprises have expressed their great attention to frm examination, and are ready to take measures to cultivate international risk management professionals, so as to provide risk management level and enhance core competitiveness.
1 Foreign exchange risk management in enterprise operation
< UL >1. Choose or match the pricing currency well
(1) choose the local currency as the pricing currency
choose the local currency as the pricing currency, which does not involve the currency exchange, while the importers and exporters have no foreign exchange risk
(2) choose the freely convertible currency as the pricing and settlement currency, which is convenient for the allocation and use of foreign exchange funds, and can be immediately converted into another favorable currency in case of foreign exchange risk
(3) choosing a favorable foreign currency for pricing is a fundamental preventive measure. The general basic principle is "accept hard, pay soft". As the choice of a settlement currency is related to the trend of currency exchange rate, the degree of negotiation with other countries and the terms of trade, it is necessary to consider comprehensively and grasp flexibly in practical operation, so as to select a favorable currency
(4) choose a "basket" currency
to eliminate the risk of foreign exchange rate changes by using more than two currencies. The typical "basket" currencies are SDRs and ECU
(5) the collocation of soft and hard currencies has negative correlation. Reasonable collocation can rece exchange rate risk. When it is difficult for both parties to reach a consensus on the choice of valuation currency, this compromise method can be adopted. For the import and export trade of machinery and equipment, e to the long time and large amount of money, this method can also be used
the process of commercial banks taking deposits and then lending is not necessarily balanced
if commercial banks have no money to put in, they will also borrow money
generally, they don't borrow money from the central bank first, but from their brothers, that is, other commercial banks
if you're a brother, you'll get it. We also charge interest for borrowing money between brothers. We call this interest interbank offered rate. There is famous LIBOR in Britain and Shibor in China
If brothers are short of money, it will be more difficult to borrow money. At this time, if brothers borrow money, they have to raise the interest rate, which is reflected in the rise of interbank offered rate
if the brothers are short of money, they have to borrow money from Yang Ma. At this time, Yang Ma will start printing money
but it's not sure how much to print, so Yang Ma has to look after it
if there is more printing, commercial banks will be happy, and the central bank has plenty of money to borrow
in this way, the major commercial banks will have the capital to make loans, so they will have a lot of money in their hands
there is more money but not more consumer goods, so the society needs to spend more money to buy the same amount of consumer goods, so the price of consumer goods rises.
1 + r = (1 + R *) × EE / E
(1)
by doing proper mathematical treatment to equation (1), we get:
r-r*= δ EE
(2)
where
δ EE = EE / E-1
(3)
equation (2) is the expression of interest rate parity without throw and cover. It shows that when the domestic interest rate is higher (lower) than the foreign interest rate, the expected depreciation (appreciation) of the domestic currency is equal to the difference between the domestic and international interest rates. Equation (3) is the expected depreciation (appreciation) rate of the local currency
it is the key to the establishment of interest rate parity that investors arbitrage the assets with different currency values in the international financial market. In order to avoid the argument about risk, we assume that the investor is risk neutral and the income utility curve is linear. The utility of investors is determined by the expected value of the expected income. The higher the expected value of the expected income, the greater the utility of investors. If the expected income of the two portfolios is equal, but the risk is different, and the investors have the same preference for the two portfolios, they are risk neutral
compared with the non covering interest rate parity, the covering interest rate parity does not make any assumption on the risk preference of investors, because the emergence of the forward foreign exchange market enables arbitragers to avoid the exchange rate risk caused by exchange rate fluctuations. When arbitraging, arbitragers can sign forward foreign exchange contracts (swaps) in the foreign exchange market opposite to the direction of arbitrage to determine the exchange rate level used for delivery on the e date. Because the arbitragers use the forward foreign exchange market to fix the exchange rate of future transactions, avoiding the impact of exchange rate risk, the whole arbitrage process can be realized smoothly. The expression of interest rate parity is
R-R * = f
(4)
where
F = f / E-1
(5)
F represents forward exchange rate, f is forward discount (premium) of domestic currency, and is the ratio of forward exchange rate of local currency higher than (lower) spot exchange rate
the interest rate parity shows that the difference between domestic interest rate and foreign interest rate is equal to the forward premium of domestic currency. The currency of high interest rate countries will be a discount in the futures exchange market, while the currency of low interest rate countries will be a premium in the futures exchange market. If the domestic interest rate is higher than the international interest rate, the capital will flow into China to make profits. However, when comparing the yields of financial assets, arbitragers not only consider the interest rates of the two kinds of assets, but also consider the income changes of the two kinds of assets e to the exchange rate changes. Arbitragers often combine arbitrage with swap business to avoid exchange rate risk. When the interest rate of the local currency is higher than that of the foreign currency, the result of a large number of foreign exchange swap transactions is that the spot exchange rate of the foreign exchange goes down and the forward exchange rate goes up, while the spot exchange rate of the local currency goes up and the forward exchange rate goes down. With the continuous arbitrage, the difference between futures exchange rate and spot exchange rate will continue to increase until the two assets provide the same rate of return. At this time, the arbitrage activities will stop, and the forward discount of local currency is just equal to the range of domestic interest rate higher than international interest rate
under the premise that capital has sufficient international liquidity, the interest rate parity with and without subsidy tells us that if the domestic interest rate rises, exceeding the level required by the interest rate parity, the local currency will be expected to depreciate. In the interest rate parity, e to the hedging behavior of arbitrage, the rise of domestic interest rate will cause the discount of local currency in the forward foreign exchange market. However, in the absence of forward foreign exchange market, how does the change of domestic interest rate level relate to the change of local currency exchange rate level? Combined with the exchange rate overshoot model of dobsch, we will further explore this< The dornbushi overshoot model describes a small open economy, assuming that foreign prices and international interest rates are fixed; The price of domestic commodity market is sticky, while the financial market is instantaneous clearing; Capital has sufficient international liquidity to maintain the establishment of interest rate parity
dobsch reinterprets the formation of expected exchange rate depreciation rate. He believes that the expected rate of exchange rate depreciation δ EE is determined by long-term equilibrium exchange rate EP and spot exchange rate et, that is
δ ee= θ ep-et
6
θ If the spot exchange rate is lower than its equilibrium level, the market expects the local currency exchange rate to depreciate; On the contrary, the exchange rate of the local currency will be expected to appreciate. The level of long-term equilibrium exchange rate is determined by the relative economic strength of the two countries (such as relative money stock, relative national income, interest rate level of the two countries, etc.)
equilibrium state is taken as the starting point of analysis. Assuming that the domestic interest rate level is equal to the international interest rate level, RD = RF, the spot exchange rate is just in its long-term equilibrium level, et = EP. Due to the disturbance of external factors, the domestic interest rate level rises suddenly, and the foreign exchange market expects the local currency to depreciate graally in the next few months. According to common economic sense, rising domestic interest rates will attract capital inflows and promote the appreciation of the local currency. Why does the rise of domestic interest rate cause the expected devaluation of the local currency? The reason is the instant clearing of financial market. The increase of domestic interest rate will attract foreign investment and lead to the appreciation of local currency. However, in the financial market with full price elasticity, the appreciation process of local currency is instantaneous and almost synchronized with the increase of domestic interest rate. The instant appreciation of the local currency provides room for its depreciation in the next few months
dobsch's explanation of the instant appreciation of the spot exchange rate of the local currency is based on his special assumption of the formation of exchange rate expectations δ ee= θ This process can be described as follows: at the initial state T0, the spot exchange rate E0 is equal to its long-term equilibrium exchange rate EP; at T1, the rise of domestic interest rate leads to the instantaneous appreciation of the local currency to E1, which is higher than its long-term equilibrium level EP. After that, the domestic interest rate fell, the local currency graally devalued, and finally the two returned to their long-term equilibrium level
why does the appreciation of spot exchange rate at T1 complete instantaneously, while the callback process after T1 is graally realized? The reason is that the clearing speed of commodity market is different from that of financial market. The instant appreciation of spot exchange rate caused by the rise of domestic interest rate is caused by the flow of arbitrage capital in the financial market. Based on the assumption that the financial market is settled instantaneously and the arbitrage capital has sufficient liquidity, the appreciation of the exchange rate of the local currency is rapid and in place at one time (rising to the reasonable level expected by the market, without spot exchange rate level determined by the parity of interest rate). The subsequent correction process depends on the adjustment of the price level caused by the imbalance of supply and demand in the commodity market. The faster price rises fall, the shorter the process of interest rate and exchange rate correction. The assumption of price stickiness in commodity market makes it impossible to realize this process immediately, and its adjustment speed is certainly slower than that in financial market. In the fast and efficient western international financial market, there is sufficient arbitrage capital. The appreciation of the local currency caused by the rise of domestic interest rate can be completed in a very short time. On the basis of the spot exchange rate of the local currency which has been appreciated, the market will expect the local currency to graally depreciate in the future. This largely explains why domestic interest rates are rising while the market expects the exchange rate of the local currency to depreciate
dornbushi's price stickiness model describes the dynamic process of exchange rate overshoot, and explains how exchange rate overshoot occurs e to the imbalance of money market, and how to reach the long-term equilibrium level from the short-term equilibrium level. When the economy reacts to the external disturbance, e to the price stickiness of the commodity market, the internal reaction of the money market to the external disturbance will be excessive. According to Dornbush's special assumption of the expected rate of change of exchange rate, the overshoot of spot exchange rate is inevitable. When the domestic interest rate rises, the instant appreciation of the local currency is a process of "over rising", and then it will graally depreciate and return to a new long-term equilibrium level higher than the original long-term equilibrium exchange rate level< The relationship between exchange rate and interest rate described by interest rate parity is difficult to observe in the real financial market. After the exchange rate adjustment, the interest rate difference is often higher than the level determined by the interest rate parity, and falls in a neutral range. In this range, there is a balance between interest rate, exchange rate and capital flow, and there is no arbitrage opportunity that has not been used (Hamid faruqee, 1992). The width of the range depends on the transaction cost when the arbitrage funds are reallocated. In addition to the conventional transaction costs (technical costs) such as communication, transportation and bookkeeping, there are also transaction costs (institutional costs) caused by institutional factors, such as foreign exchange control, capital control and so on
USD / JPY / yen, USD / CHF / Swiss franc, USD / CAD / Canadian dollar
indirect offer
EUR / USD euro / US dollar, GBP / USD pound / dollar, aud / USD Australian dollar / US dollar
cross offer
EUR / GBP euro / pound, EUR / CHF euro / Swiss franc, EUR / JPY euro / yen, GBP / JPY pound / yen
however, the fare of this bus will be increased ring holidays, and it will be doubled