Forecast the next bull market of virtual currency

1. The next bull market should start in the second half of 2021
according to the history of bitcoin, someone has made a correlation model between halving and price. According to this model, the next time bitcoin halves, the price will exceed $10000 or even $100000.

2. The opening of a bull market is not the atmosphere infected by the pull of a certain currency, but the long-term conspiracy behind the financiers, such as the climax of the currency market in 17 years

analysis of the conditions and reasons for the bull market from October to December in 2017:

1. The 94 policy led to a large number of shanzhais being taken off the shelves, resulting in the rection of currency compression and the concentration of funds

2. The stop of RMB recharge has enabled BTC and eth tokens to circulate substantially in the digital currency trading market

3. In the medium term, there are thousands of currencies incubating private placement, and there is a demand of 100 billion funds for tokens

4. The expectation and numbness caused by the lack of understanding of the value of blockchain

5. The understanding of the cruelty of financial transactions is simple, and the mode transformation from 2017 to 2018 is not understood (the spot price rises continuously, and the futures hedging price fluctuates)

6. The market lacks understanding of the financial financing (currency) routines of incubation, early bird and private placement (for example, the price of private placement has expanded 5-10 times or even dozens of times since incubation)

7. The derivatives of a large number of forked coins and candy promotion promoted the bull market

in May and June of the year 18, the public chain was hot, and the financiers cooperated with EOS's favorable main network and node election to pull the market as soon as possible, which drove the market mood and completed a calf

whether the future market is bull or not, brother Zhu thinks that September and October should digest part of the smashing market in July and August and be bullish. The rise of LBTC has little effect on it, and there is more than one LBTC rising fiercely from low to high

to sum up, LBTC is the initiator. It's right to say that the price will rise to 1000 yuan. It depends on the time. It's unlikely to rise in 19 years, but as an investment for the future, it's entirely possible for LBTC to rise to 1000 yuan.

3.

Please click
to ask how much worry you can have, which is like worrying about money
since December last year, the price of bitcoin has continued to decline, with the average price of bitcoin hovering at US $6000. For old chives, the bear market of "bitcoin circle" for half a year seems nothing, but for those who have not yet entered, their hearts are full of doubts. Is this a new round of bear market of "coin circle", Or does it mean bitcoin has taken off all its packaging and returned to its e value. Perhaps the collapse of the currency circle is not a "bear market". Bitcoin has fallen from US $20000 to US $6000, Ethereum has fallen from the highest US $1500 to more than US $300, the prices of various air currencies and counterfeit currencies have been cleared, and the total market value of global digital currencies has fallen from more than US $800 billion to the lowest US $260 billion. More people call this a long bear market of the "currency circle", When all bad currencies leave the market, the currency circle will return to the bull market

red is like fire, pink is like haze, and white is like snow. The flowers are sweet; When I close my eyes, the trees seem to be full of peaches, apricots and pears. Under the flowers, hundreds of bees are buzzing and butterflies are flying around. Wild flowers everywhere are: miscellaneous children, with a name, no name, scattered in the grass, like eyes, like stars, but also blinking
"blowing face is not cold, willow wind", it's good, like mother's hand touching you. The wind brings the smell of some newly turned soil, mixed with the smell of grass, and the fragrance of various flowers, all brewing in the slightly moist air. The birds set their nests among the flowers and leaves. They are happy. They show off their crisp throats and sing melodies in harmony with the breeze and the flowing water. The piccolo of the shepherd boy on the cow's back is also ringing all day

rain is the most common, which lasts for three or two days. Don't be upset. Look, it's like cow hair, flower needle and fine silk. It's densely woven obliquely. There's a thin layer of smoke on the roof. The leaves are bright green, and the grass is green to your eyes. In the evening, when the lamp was on, a little yellow halo light set off a quiet and peaceful night. In the countryside, on the path, beside the stone bridge, there are people who are holding up umbrellas and walking slowly. There are also working farmers in the field, wearing coir and hat. Their houses, sparsely silent in the rain

there are more kites in the sky and more children on the ground. Every family in the city and countryside, old and small, came out one by one. Shuhuo Shuhuo muscles and bones, shake up the spirit, each do their own thing“ The plan of a year lies in the spring. "At the beginning, there are some efforts and some hopes

spring is like a newly fallen baby, which is new from head to toe and growing
in spring

4. The current price of bitcoin is US $5300
bitcoin bull market will start in October 2019
Zhao Dong predicted that the price of BTC will recover around October this year. He explained that a few months after trading between $4000 and $6000, the price of bitcoin will break through and enter a new period of bitcoin surge
he agrees with other analysts that the price of bitcoin will not enter a new low, but will start to recover later this year
the price of bitcoin will exceed the highest level in the past and may reach US $50000.
in the previous forecast of the price of bitcoin in 2019, Zhao Dong said that the next round of encryption bull market starting in 2019 will make the price of bitcoin far exceed the US $20000 reached in 2017. He talked about the boom of cryptocurrency. The halving of bitcoin block rewards and the extension of bitcoin supply will further help the boom of cryptocurrency. With this, he said, the price of BTC could easily rise to $50000.

5. Try to set your TCP / IP protocol to auto access state. Method: right click Network Neighborhood - properties - right click & quot; Local connection & quot; Properties - double click & quot; Internet Protocol TCP / IP & quot- IPX is the bottom layer protocol of NetWare, which is only responsible for the movement of data in the network, does not guarantee the success of data transmission, and does not provide error correction services. When IPX is responsible for data transmission, if the receiving node is in the same network segment, it will directly transmit the data to it according to the ID of the node; If the receiving node is remote (not in the same network segment, or in a different LAN), the data will be given to the network ID in the Netware server or router to continue the next step of data transmission. SPX is responsible for error free processing of transmitted data in the whole protocol, so we call IPX / SPX "Novell's protocol set".

6. Mchain currency can be put into the digital currency wallet from the contract computing power platform, and then transferred to a third party for transaction and sales.

7. To analyze this problem, we must first understand how the bull market over the years came into being< Since the 21st century, there have been three real bull markets in China:
in 2000, from 1100 on May 29, 1999 to 2245 on June 14, 2001
in 2007, from 998 in June 2005 to 6124 in October 2007
in 2015, from 2026 in April 2014 to 5178 in June 2015
of the three bull markets, only 2007 was a real natural bull market, while the other two rounds were actually policy markets
one was in 2000, that is, the 5.19 market. At that time, the stock market was influenced by the US internet bubble. The domestic Internet technology stocks led China's A shares to go straight to 1700 points, and after a period of callback,
broke through 2245 of the historical high.

behind this bull market, in addition to policy support, another very important factor is the market interest rate cut. The benchmark interest rate of one-year deposit has dropped from 11% to 2.25%. Such a rate cut is unprecedented, which contributes to the improvement of stock asset valuation
then the second wave was the biggest bull market in the history of a shares, 6124 points! At that time, the bull market started after the reform of non tradable shares in May 2005, the fundamentals were improving, a large number of open-end funds were issued, the RMB was expected to appreciate, and the capital entered the market in an all-round way. The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 998 to 6124, which can be said to be the beginning of the era of nationwide stock speculation
behind this round of stock market, many people see the craziness of shareholders, the bubble of the stock market and the partial expansion of small and medium sized businesses. This bull market rally is reasonable and necessary, because the composite net profit growth rate of the Shanghai Composite Index in the past 03 to 07 years is close to 30%, and the fundamentals are enough to support the rising share price.
the most recent bull market started in November 2014. At that time, the central bank cut interest rates sharply and successively reced the one-year deposit rate from 3.5% to 1.5%, which boosted the attractiveness of stock assets. Then it cut reserve requirements for three consecutive times and lowered the deposit reserve ratio from 21.5% to 18%, releasing a lot of money. In addition, the conditions for margin trading were extremely loose, It has created a balance of nearly 2 trillion for the market, thus leading to a wave of leverage bulls, and the stock market has directly reached 5178 points from 2000 points
this round of bull market is a typical policy market, because at that time, the A-share market was not optimistic from the fundamental point of view, and the growth rate of GDP and enterprise net profit all bottomed out, while the bull market was smashed out purely under the multiple support of policies
judging from the above three rounds of bull market, three questions are raised:
can the rection of interest rate and reserve ratio promote the stock market
it does help, because the bull market in 2000 and the bull market in 14 years are related to the interest rate rection. The interest rate rection will rece the income of other fixed assets, thus indirectly pushing up the value of equity assets. The rection of the standard will release money, and the inflow into the stock market will promote the rise of asset prices
on the contrary, will the increase of interest rate and the increase of reserve ratio lead to the decline of the stock market
this conclusion is not entirely correct. For example, in the bull market in 2007, the benchmark interest rate of one-year deposits has been increasing from the lowest 2.25% to 4.14%, and the deposit reserve ratio has been rising from the lowest 8% to 17.5%. However, the two negative factors have no effect on the bull market to hit 6124 points
therefore, the adjustment of benchmark interest rate and deposit reserve ratio does not have an absolute impact on the market
then, how does the change of net profit affect the stock market
we look for the time period when the net profit of the Shanghai composite index increased significantly, and find that it mainly concentrated in 2003 to 2007, in which the net profit of the Shanghai composite index increased by 31% in 2003, 34% in 2004, 1.8% in 2005, 33% in 2006 and 57% in 2007, while in other years, the net profit of the Shanghai composite index increased by 37% in 10 years
therefore, the performance of 2003-07 alone contributed 373% to the net profit growth of the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased the net profit to 4.73 times
what is this concept? In 2002, the price earnings ratio of Shanghai Stock Exchange was 1434 points, which was 45 times. In 2007, the price earnings ratio of a shares was 47 times. From the perspective of valuation, there was not much change, but the increase of net profit was even enough to support a shares to rise to 7000 points or even higher
but why did the market crash after 6124
because the growth rate of net profit in 2008 dropped to - 14.67%, the fundamentals were unable to support
so instead of A bubble burst, and more accurately, earnings growth should not keep pace.
here we understand that the growth of the market essentially depends on the growth of the net profit of a shares
if the net profit does not rise sharply, but leads to a bull market, we call it artificial cattle. The reason why we all call A-share a policy market is that there are too many artificial cattle
however, an artificial bull market without fundamental support will not be able to make it to the sky. Therefore, in 15 years, the price earnings ratio of the Shanghai composite index was only 20 times

having said so much, is there any chance for our A shares now
let's first look at how much the net profit of Shanghai Composite Index enterprises increased from 11 to 17 years:
12.67% in 11 years
12 years 2.21%
13 years 13.64%
14 years 5.03%
15 years - 3.6%
16 years 1.06%
17 years 17.88%
it took seven years for net profit to rise by 57.8%, even worse than the S & P index in the same period
so why can't a shares rise? Because you can't go up, the market starts to kill the valuation, and the P / E ratio and market value will naturally fall
from this, several rules are summarized
1) basically good, net profit growth is the core reason for the bull market
2) the market may also prosper irrationally. This part of external factors include monetary policy, fiscal policy and other policies, among which monetary policy is particularly important, mainly reflected in the rection of interest rates and reserve requirements
however, this wave of valuations is too fierce. The price earnings ratio of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index of our big a shares is as low as 11.2 times, which is less than half of the 23.7 times PE of the S & P 500 of the United States
why is the valuation so low
the first is the trade war. No one can guarantee whether we can do anything in the United States or what trump will do. If this uncertain risk is not released, the valuation of our A shares will always be discounted
will policy bulls come again
from the perspective of monetary policy, it is already very difficult to raise A-shares by cutting interest rates. The benchmark interest rate of one-year deposits has been as low as 1.5%, and there is little room for further rection
it's hopeful to rece the reserve requirement, but it also means whether the money will flow to the bond market, the property market and other places. It also needs to rely on the guidance of policies, and there is a lot of uncertainty
to return to the essence, it's better to see whether the net profit of a shares is reliable and whether it can rise continuously and rapidly, which is directly related to the trend of the stock market. At present, the net profit growth rate of the Shanghai Composite Index in the mid-18 years is 13.7%. Next, let's look at the annual report. If it can maintain a growth rate of 13-15% every year in the next three years, I believe that the Shanghai Composite Index will return to 4000 points and maintain about 15 times, It's not a problem at all.

8. Think about it after 2022. In 2007, the bull market ended and entered the bear market. The bull market began in 2014, with an interval of seven years

the bull market will end in 2015, and it will be around 2022 every six or seven years.