Financial Times virtual currency

1. Yao Qian, head of the preparatory group of the digital currency Research Institute of the central bank, said that the digital currency issued by the central bank is mainly to replace physical cash, rece the cost of issuance and circulation of traditional paper money, and improve the convenience and transparency of economic transactions
Huang Zhen, director of the Institute of financial law of Central University of Finance and economics, said that digital currency mainly refers to the form of currency and will not cause currency shrinkage. The issuing scale of money is still controlled by the central bank, while the issue of paper money or digital money is just a change of form< In addition, Huang Zhen mentioned that the issue of digital currency is still in the stage of discussion, which is an innovative mechanism of currency value symbol, and many problems are still under study. However, in practice, people are more and more inclined to use e-banking and e-payment rather than carrying notes. Under this trend, the number of banknotes in circulation in the future may decrease
the central bank's issuing of digital currency is still inspired by encrypted digital currencies such as bitcoin and lettercoin, and so is the token of European crowdfunding platform. The digital currency issued by the central bank has monetary attributes, while the token of European crowdfunding platform can only be a kind of asset certificate, a niche proct.

2. To be honest, I may come into contact with bitcoin later than many of my peers, but I'm one of the quickest people to make a decision to join the instry. I learned from the news that Jet Li's one foundation was grateful to the enthusiasts who donated bitcoin. After less than ten minutes of thinking, I immediately decided to put down 90% of the projects I had completed and devote myself to this instry with incomparable prospects. I am a technology controller. Although I am not well-known in the Internet instry, I have operated no less than 10 it projects, and have cooperated with or established 7 companies. Among them, there are also successes and failures. The only instry that has not been involved is group buying, because I thought from the beginning that group buying deviated from its original appearance and would not be a very promising instry. But after learning about bitcoin, I feel that I have found a window, a window to the palace of ideals, a way to change the world. Today, I still insist on my choice, but the real use value of bitcoin in China is rarely reflected except for its speculative property. After multi-party analysis, I think the short-term downward trend is irreversible. Let's list the following factors that cause the price of bitcoin to fall:
first, the excessively free market - the copper price killer
bitcoin is born for freedom and lives for freedom, which has created a group of bitcoin fans who are crazy about pursuing freedom. The decentralization of the bitcoin exchange has been rampant for a time. The current situation of no supervision of the bitcoin exchange is obvious to all, and it can not be solved by itself, such as the forever anonymous dark village, the disorderly competition of mining machinery, etc. these important factors that are often ignored by people are also important drivers of the price drop
just think of the capitalist social system in the early days. People had great expectations and perseverance. They could sacrifice their lives for freedom and cut the rope on puppets at all costs. During the transition from feudal socialism to capitalism, people were like holding on to the water for several generations, suddenly came out to breathe fresh air, and no one was allowed to press themselves into the water again, The result is a social system of excessive freedom. The result of excessive freedom is that once someone obtains certain resources and social advantages, he can quickly devour everything around him like a black hole, forming a monopoly and giving birth to an oligarchy. They don't care about other people's lives, just like gladiators. If you lose, you have to bear all the consequences; If I win, I can enjoy some honor. But after all, oligarchs are a minority. Society is made up of thousands of ordinary people, so the system made up of people must be unstable and unreasonable. Therefore, modern capitalist society has learned to compromise. After learning from many advantages of capitalist society at that time, it is found that there are anti-monopoly laws, various anti-commercial bribery and other daily laws for proper supervision, In order to effectively delay the outbreak cycle of the financial crisis
the reason why so many words are used to describe capitalist society is that bitcoin has too many similarities with it. A brand new financial system does not depend on specific institutions or indivials, but also depends on all participants. With it, we can eliminate all external influences and keep our wallets. It's a great idea, but what about the reality? Holding a large amount of bitcoin, amzhuang can control the price of bitcoin. In the capital market, 1 billion yuan is only a very small amount. For the bitcoin market, it is enough to control the price rise and fall of any exchange, back and forth volatility, commonly known as "fleece". Easier said than done, as like as two peas in the market, you will be able to control the bitcoin in your hands. But you have to be in the market. For these makers, they can benefit from the ups and downs, because in the trend of the rising market, they will increase ring each shock period, and fall more every time the market falls. At the top of the pyramid, there are always only a few people
after more than a year of communication with players in the instry, we found that those who are still left behind are either deeply covered or persistent believers. Even if they are covered, only a few of them are entities. Most of the left behind are pure it houses, and they blush when they meet. Most of them have no financial experience, even few of them have speculated in stocks, so they are in shock, It's certain that Xiaosan will be injured< Another important factor is that, like stocks, the amount of cash in circulation is far less than the total value. Although several exchanges have not announced the amount of bitcoin and the total amount of RMB assets, it can be concluded from the data of mtgox's bankruptcy that the amount of cash announced by mtgox is US $40 million, Bitcoin is worth US $450 million, reaching a staggering 1:11. According to my preliminary understanding, the general comparison of domestic trading platforms is between 1:3 and 1:6, which is slightly better than mtfox, but it is also enough to illustrate the problem. Once the bear market comes, the power of shorting is far greater than that of long
although the stock market did not rise sharply last year, many people did profit from the stock market and attracted many of the few users who swayed between the stock market and bitcoin. Many of the professional investment users and deep-seated users who benefited from bitcoin also left the bitcoin instry for various reasons. The big reason is that for bitcoin, They think that in addition to speculation, it is a game played by technical talents. Although this is a misunderstanding, let's think about it from another perspective. If you are an investor outside the IT instry and face the world's largest trading platform, you will go bankrupt if it goes bankrupt. If bitcoin is stolen, it will be stolen without supervision and responsibility. What would you think? Therefore, the reason for today's situation is that the number of bitcoin has not decreased, but the capital is decreasing. Although there are many foreign advantages ring this period, the domestic situation has been declining. This is an indisputable fact
with the decrease of funds, long has lost enough momentum. The reason why there is no sharp decline is that there are still a number of bitcoin loyalists. Some of them have been engaged in bitcoin for several consecutive years, and almost every year they have to experience a similar slump. Therefore, they still firmly believe that this year is just a repetition of the market rules of previous years, and the final price will rise; Of course, I personally believe that in the long run, the trend of bitcoin will go up, but is it half a year or three to five years? I'm really not sure, because the biggest constant in the world is change. As the saying goes, the flowers are similar year by year, but the people are different year by year. The past experience may not be applicable to the present< Third, domestic policy - gold price killer
I don't know if the Americans have understood that it was not Japan, the United States, Europe, but China that decided the price of bitcoin in 2013. Made in China used to be a headache for foreigners. Now, they also realize the power of China's speculation. China's real estate speculators are like locusts everywhere they go. At present, China's speculators are also rapidly overdrawn the growth value of bitcoin. China, which has 80% of the world's trading volume, explicitly forbids the value of bitcoin as a medium of exchange, so it has no real value in China except for speculation
I believe that the world's understanding of the power of Chinese speculators in bitcoin began with the documents of five ministries and commissions, because before that, almost no organization participated in the international bitcoin conference. After that, many foreign media swarmed in, professional and unprofessional media came. This time, although the documents on April 15 have not been confirmed, the financial times interviewed bitcoin in advance, which shows that they recognize the power of Chinese speculators
why is an Internet proct that started in foreign countries so influenced by China's policies? This is not its main application place, which just reflects that the price of bitcoin is seriously out of its actual value line, artificially pushed up and overdrawn its value. In my opinion, without CCTV's report and China's participation, it would have been good for bitcoin to have a price of more than 1000 last year. It was also e to excessive attention, which created the fastest five ministerial documents in history< 4. Crazy miner - the ultimate price killer
the computing power of bitcoin miner has increased from 1p at the end of last year to more than 30p now. In less than five months, the price of bitcoin miner has dropped from 6000 to 2700 today. In other words, the number of miner has increased dozens of times, from CPU to motherboard, power supply, power supply, etc The chassis and processing costs are all paid in RMB. Just imagine how much cash flow the mining machine has taken from the whole bitcoin ecological chain. Once the cash flows into the hands of TSMC, motherboard factory and others, it will never be kept back. This is also the result of disorderly competition, once profitable, the number will never end! It is said that Shenzhen proces 90% of the world's computing power of mining machines, and each time the chips are streamed, the chips are less than 3.5 million, more than 20.3 million, not to mention the whole machine. A mining machine manufacturer I know in Shenzhen club said that he sold 1000 USB mining machines a minute, which shows the madness
to sum up, all aspects have exerted pressure on cash flow, so the continuous decline of bitcoin in the short term is caused by many reasons. Even without the 4.15 document, I believe a continuous decline process will be formed. As for the bottom, it depends on the belief of those who still hold fast to it and when the crazy mining machine will not continue, And the actual application of bitcoin in foreign countries
those who played with stocks in 2008 may find that bitcoin shares a striking resemblance to the price trend of stocks. If bitcoin goes up from 2000 to 5300, any good news, even an additional issue, will make stocks soar all the time. After that, although the stock surged to the highest point, the downward trend was like "defeat like a mountain". Any bad news would cause a decline. Coupled with the excessive issuance of new shares and serious overdraft of market cash, the a share once fell back to about 1600 points. Although it rebounded to more than 3000 points, it would still jump to about 2000 points. After several years of shock, it did not improve
bitcoin plate is small and easy to rise and fall. However, if the retail investors are excessively injured, bitcoin's loyalty can only be powerless to let bitcoin rise. The false rise of the makers will face a lot of market capital pressure and can only follow the trend
at present, there are several companies in the whole instry that can support short selling, such as fire coin, China bitcoin and okcoin, which also aggravates the dection process
of course, I am still very optimistic about the long-term development of bitcoin, but I really can't see how to break the current deadlock. The purpose of this article is to provide some personal opinions for the majority of small businesses. Maybe you are more in-depth and complete than I think, but finance is nothing more than that

3. Viewpoint: digital currency exists to replace paper money, and it will become a trend in the future< p> Although for & quot; Digital currency & quot; This term is already familiar to many people, but I believe most people do not know very well what this is for. Even a lot of people will equate the digital currency with WeChat or Alipay, which is not accurate. So, I'd like to take this topic to talk about digital currency in simple and easy words

so, what's the significance of this digital currency? Why do you have to work hard to do this? For most people, it really won't have any impact, but for a small number of people, it will have a great impact. This small group of people are those who engage in illegal activities

for example, if some people are corrupt and accept bribes, they specify that they can't let others put money on the bank card. That means they are directly arrested, but they can't be found with cash. If we restrict the large amount of cash consumption in the future, for example, if you have to spend more than 5000 at one time, you can't use cash, you need to use digital currency. In this way, those who have bribed tens of millions of cash in their families may not want to spend all their money in their lifetime. And their illegal income doesn't go to the society. It's just paper. They still occupy space at home. Once they start to spend money in digital currency, it's easy to find out. That is to say, all our income will be counted. Once they are involved in crimes, it's easy to be caught. At that time, there will be less Telecom fraud, This is the meaning of digital currency

4.

Invisible bitcoin can not only make people rich or poor overnight, but also bring people worry about their lives

According to Ukrainian media reports quoted by the daily telegraph, on Tuesday (December 26), Pavel Lerner, CEO of the British bitcoin exchange exmo, was kidnapped after leaving his office in Kiev, Ukraine, and dragged into a black galloping car by a group of masked people

after the above news came out, a spokesperson of exmo told the daily telegraph that we are doing our best to speed up the search for Lerner and welcome all clues from the outside world. Exmo's business is running as usual and all users' funds are absolutely safe. According to the company's official website, the platform has more than 900000 users

after the kidnapping incident attracted public attention, exmo also announced on official twitter on Thursday that it had been attacked by DDoS (distributed denial of service) with the intention of destroying platform transactions

according to Wall Street reports, at the beginning of this month, when bitcoin rose to more than US $13000, the payment system of nice hash, the world's largest digital currency mining platform, was hacked and bitcoin in users' wallets was stolen. Bitcoin millionaire, a bitcoin information website, has since estimated that as many as 4736 bitcoins were stolen by hackers, with a total value of more than $62 million

interestingly, as a foreign netizen imagined, after the kidnappers received the ransom, if bitcoin continued to appreciate, it would be OK. If bitcoin collapsed before the gloves turned, wouldn't it be a "huge loss"

In fact, this is also the old question in the minds of many investors - how long can bitcoin's investment boom last

On December 2, when talking about bitcoin in public activities, pan Gongsheng, vice governor of the people's Bank of China, said that it was a decisive and correct decision for regulators to shut down bitcoin trading platform and stop ICO a few months ago

According to BBC news, on December 14, Andrew Bailey, CEO of the financial conct authority (FCA), the UK's top regulator, issued a warning to investors, saying that bitcoin buyers should be ready for "full compensation". Bitcoin lacks the endorsement and support of the government and the central bank, and its risk level is the same as gambling, he said

on Thursday (December 28), the South Korean government announced the countermeasures to combat virtual currency speculation, and considered closing some virtual currency transactions, so as to curb excessive speculation. In addition, the South Korean government has decided to implement the real name system of virtual currency trading and expand the investigation authority of the Fair Trade Commission, the anti-monopoly law enforcement agency

In a statement, the South Korean government said that cryptocurrency speculation in South Korea has gone too far and has become irrational, according to the report. The government can no longer allow abnormal speculation to develop

the Indian authorities also issued a warning. On Friday, India's finance ministry warned investors about the risks of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, saying digital currency investments look like a Ponzi scheme, Reuters reported. In a statement, India's Ministry of Finance said investors and other participants in digital currency transactions were "entirely at their own risk" and advised that it was best to avoid such investments

but from the perspective of optimists, bitcoin is not as static as gold. As a virtual currency, its software code is constantly developing, and its functions can be constantly adjusted, improved and updated, and its value can be realized in unimaginable ways, such as, Many bitcoin fans are looking forward to bitcoin's "lightning network" (an improved way to facilitate payment). If bitcoin gets more attractive functions in the process of continuous evolution, people can even use it for convenient and fast cross-border payment

according to China Securities Journal, based on the sustainability of bitcoin development, bitcoin supporters believe that even if the market value of cryptocurrency expands to 20 times the current value, the market will not go crazy. However, as far as bitcoin itself is concerned, with more and more new technologies coming out, bitcoin's share in the cryptocurrency market will show a downward trend in the future

Hong shuning, a senior researcher of Suning Institute of financial research, recently wrote an article, imagining two situations of "truly killing bitcoin":

first, all bitcoin development teams are conservative and complacent, no longer absorbing the latest scientific and technological achievements to improve themselves, resulting in the emergence of a new digital currency with all aspects of technical indicators exceeding bitcoin, It is widely accepted by the society and then replaces bitcoin. This is the failure of bitcoin, but also the success of virtual digital currency

Second, there are serious loopholes in the bitcoin protocol or wallet software, which lead to the security of the whole bitcoin system can not be guaranteed, a large area of funds are stolen, sold at a low price and uncontrollable in the short term, and the social confidence in bitcoin is completely lost

so. In this world, money is easy to use

5. It is only a few years since the emergence of the concept of bitcoin, which has not only become a hot "gold mine" on the Internet, but also accepted and used by more and more entities. On the 29th, the world's first bitcoin ATM opened in Vancouver. It was deposited or withdrawn in the form of Canadian dollars, which immediately became popular among bitcoin fans. Analysis shows that this is not only a big business opportunity for bitcoin, but also a big step forward in the development of this "private currency"

experience

the world's first bitcoin ATM was set up in Vancouver Cafe

"the world's first" bitcoin ATM was opened in Vancouver, Canada, on the 29th, to exchange Canadian dollars and bitcoin, quickly ushering in people queuing for business. The ATM is made by American machine money and is located in a cafe called trendy in Vancouver. One of the ATM owners is Mitchell Demeter, who has been trading bitcoin for several years. This year, he partnered with two other high school classmates to set up a bitcoin trading company. Demeter said it was the world's first bitcoin ATM. Demeter and his colleagues think that bitcoin ATM is a business opportunity, because before "there was no bitcoin ATM, we all trade on the website"

ring the operation, the bitcoin user enters a password similar to the bank pin code to log in to the network bitcoin account. Through the ATM, the user can withdraw the Canadian dollar cash corresponding to the ratio from the bitcoin account, or deposit the cash into the bitcoin account. Bitcoin users only need a smart phone to use bitcoin, which is similar to online shopping

easy access

15 instries in Vancouver accept bitcoin

businessman David loy used his mobile phone to transfer 0.0101 bitcoin to "trendy" cafe and bought a cup of black coffee worth 2 Canadian dollars. Roy believes that Vancouver has a large number of online businesses, creating conditions for setting up the first bitcoin ATM. Mike young, a business student at Simon Fraser University in Canada, also came to the bitcoin ATM on the 29th. He and others founded a bitcoin club on campus, believing that bitcoin "is the trend because they can provide maximum value and efficiency"

a man with an alias of Nakamoto created bitcoin in 2008. Since then, the virtual currency has graally become popular on the Internet. About 15 instries in Vancouver have accepted bitcoin, including coffee shops and landscape design companies. Bitcoin can rece the cost of capital transfer in countries with weak banking systems, a senior investment executive at Fort investment group commented this month, the Financial Times reported

6. Zero3 international settlement center adopts blockchain technology to complete cross-border payment through valuable digital assets euz. Compared with the traditional use of foreign exchange purchase and exchange between international banks, in 2018, ant financial services has actually tried to use blockchain technology in the field of international cross-border payment, so it is very good to use blockchain technology in Cross-border payment.

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8. Bitcoin is the virtual currency of American Games. At present, the price of a bitcoin is about $650. It's more than 3000 yuan in RMB.

9. 1. The characteristic of gold standard is that gold is an international reserve currency. The state regulates the shape, weight and fineness of gold coins by law. Gold and coins can be freely cast and exchanged, and gold can be freely exported. The exchange rate between currencies is determined by the proportion of their respective gold content. Gold delivery point becomes the boundary of exchange rate fluctuation. At the same time, under the international gold standard system, a country's balance of payments can be automatically restored through the fluctuation of prices and the import and export of gold. The outbreak of the first World War severely impacted the "gold standard". In order to cope with the fiscal deficit, the European countries involved in the war broke away from the gold standard one after another, began to make up for the huge war expenses by printing banknotes, stopped the free exchange of banknotes and gold, and restricted the flow of gold. In the early days after the end of the first World War, governments tried to recover their economies through a large amount of public spending, which made most European countries fall into hyperinflation. The desire for a stable financial environment prompted countries to try to restore the gold standard. In 1919, the United States first restored the gold standard. In 1925, Britain also restored the gold standard system. The direct result of the recovery of the gold standard is the excessive demand for gold and the relative shortage of gold supply, so countries have to focus on a lower gold standard. Deflation emerged as the times require, which became an important factor incing the great depression in the 1930s. In 1930, the wave of bank failures in the United States accelerated the decline of the world economy, and the gold standard played a role in fueling the fire, because many countries tried to protect their gold reserves for the sake of the margin standard, This has made them reluctant to provide liquidity to banks (because any government loans to their own banks will increase private potential claims to the government's precious gold reserves), accelerating bank failures. At the London conference in 1933, countries failed to reach an agreement on stabilizing the exchange rates among France, Britain and the United States, which marked the end of the international gold standard system. With the outbreak of World War II, the focus of attention of all countries is on armaments, and there is no time to consider the reconstruction of the gold standard< On July 1, 1944, the United Nations Monetary and financial conference (abbreviated as Bretton Woods Conference) was held in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. The conference signed the agreement of the International Monetary Fund (hereinafter referred to as the agreement) and the agreement of the international bank for reconstruction and development (IBRD), collectively known as the Bretton Woods Agreement, and established the international monetary system centered on the US dollar, namely the Bretton Woods system. A. The main task of establishing a permanent international monetary and financial institution (IMF) is to supervise the exchange rate policies of member countries and provide financing for them. B. We should implement an adjustable fixed exchange rate system based on US dollar and gold. C. The convertibility of national currencies and the principles of international payment and settlement. D. The establishment of international reserve assets. Foreign exchange and gold constitute international reserve assets. E. The adjustment of balance of payments
there are three basic conditions for the operation of the US dollar centered Bretton Woods system. First, the balance of payments of the United States maintained a surplus and the external value of the US dollar remained stable. Second, the United States has sufficient gold reserves. Third, the price of gold remained at the official level. But the Bretton Woods system has the following inherent defects. First, the defects of gold exchange system itself. As the US dollar is linked to gold, it enjoys a special status, which greatly strengthens the influence of the United States on the world economy. On the one hand, the United States can obtain seigniorage by issuing paper money instead of using gold for external payment and capital export; But on the other hand, the United States also carries the burden of maintaining gold exchange parity. When people have full trust in the US dollar and the US dollar is relatively short, this kind of gold exchange parity can be maintained. When people have a crisis of trust in the US dollar, the fixed parity between the US dollar and gold is difficult to maintain. In other words, the stability of the international monetary system completely depends on the stability of the US dollar and the US economy, which undoubtedly has great risks and fragility< Second, the reserve system is unstable. This system can not provide a reserve currency with sufficient quantity, strong currency value and acceptable to all countries, so that the growth of international reserves can meet the needs of international trade and world economic development. After the war, the growth of gold proction was slow, and the growth of international reserves corresponding to the growth of international trade could only be the increase of US dollars. In 1960, Professor Triffin of Yale University pointed out in his book the crisis of gold and the US dollar that in the Bretton Woods system, a country's currency was the main international reserve currency. In the case of stagnant gold proction, the supply of international reserves completely depended on the international income and expenditure situation of the United States: the balance of payments of the United States maintained a surplus, International reserve assets are not enough for the development of international trade; The balance of payments deficit of the United States, the surplus of international reserve assets, the dollar crisis, and endanger the international monetary system. The United States can only provide reserve currency for the world in the form of deficit, while at the same time making it difficult to maintain the value of this currency. This internal contradiction, which is difficult to solve, is called "Triffin problem" by international economists, which determines the instability of the Bretton Woods system and the inevitability of its collapse. Third, the defects of the balance of payments adjustment mechanism. The system stipulates that the floating range of exchange rate should be kept within 1%, and the exchange rate lacks flexibility, which limits the adjustment effect of exchange rate on balance of payments. Theoretically, the temporary imbalance of member states can be financed by the International Monetary Fund, while the fundamental imbalance can be corrected by adjusting the exchange rate. However, the scale of both is limited, and the actual effect of adjustment is limited. In fact, it emphasizes unilateral adjustment of domestic policies. Fourth, internal and external balance is difficult to unify. Under the fixed exchange rate system, countries can not make full use of the exchange rate leverage to adjust the balance of payments. Instead, they can only take economic policies or regulatory measures that are detrimental to the realization of domestic economic goals in order to sacrifice internal balance for external balance. When the U.S. balance of payments deficit and the U.S. dollar exchange rate fall, according to the fixed exchange rate principle, other countries should intervene in the foreign exchange market, but this will often lead to and aggravate the inflation of these countries; If these countries do not intervene, the depreciation of the US dollar will intensify, and they will suffer from the depreciation of the US dollar reserve assets. With the development of the world economy, the defects of the Bretton Woods system graally exposed and became more and more serious, which eventually led to the collapse of the system. Its development process is from dollar shortage to dollar disaster, then to dollar crisis, and finally the whole system collapses< The defects of President Ogawa mainly refer to: for the reserve currency issuing countries, the domestic monetary policy objectives often conflict with the reserve currency requirements of various countries. The monetary authority can not ignore the international function of its own currency and only consider domestic objectives, but also can not take into account different domestic and foreign objectives at the same time. It may not be able to fully meet the growing demand of the global economy e to the need to curb domestic inflation, or it may lead to global liquidity flooding e to excessive stimulation of domestic demand. Theoretically, the Triffin problem still exists, that is, the reserve currency issuing countries cannot provide liquidity for the world while ensuring the stability of the currency value. When a country's currency becomes the world's primary proct pricing currency, trade settlement currency and reserve currency, the exchange rate adjustment of the country to the economic imbalance is invalid, because most countries' currencies are based on the country's currency< From the perspective of building a stable international monetary system, we believe that the reform of the international monetary system must rely on two pillars, one is the reform of the reserve currency system, the other is the reform of the international policy supervision mechanism
the ideal goal of the reform of the international monetary system is to create an international reserve currency that is decoupled from sovereign countries and can maintain long-term stability of currency value, so as to avoid the inherent defects of sovereign credit currency as a reserve currency 1 Reform the SDR basket and promote the diversification of reserve currency 2 We should vigorously advocate the monetization of SDR and graally promote it to become a global reserve currency. In terms of improving the international policy supervision mechanism, we should still take IMF as the core institution of supervision, promote IMF to strengthen supervision ability, adjust supervision focus and improve supervision effectiveness
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