SLO virtual currency

1.

Characteristics:

China's monetary policy is a policy adopted by China's monetary authorities to manage and regulate money and credit in order to achieve certain macroeconomic goals. It also consists of ultimate goal, policy tool, operation index, intermediary target and other factors. China's monetary policy is developing and changing with China's policy and development practice, with Chinese characteristics

reason:

steady monetary policy is a formulation with Chinese characteristics, which is about the guiding ideology and principles of formulating monetary policy. It is different from the economic textbooks on the operational level of monetary policy (such as "loose", "neutral" or "tight" monetary Policy)

A prudent monetary policy is related to the goal of stabilizing the currency value, which includes the requirements of preventing both deflation and inflation. It does not hinder the implementation or expansion or deflation of monetary policy according to the needs of economic situation

Background:

there are mainly the following aspects:

first, after the upsurge of real estate and development zones in the early 1990s, the risk problem of some small and medium-sized financial institutions was quite prominent in 1997 and 1998, when the Chinese government and the people's Bank of China faced the important task of resolving financial risks and preventing the emergence of new and more serious financial risks

Second, although the contradiction of insufficient social aggregate demand has been exposed, the most prominent problem is structural problem, the actual demand for effective loans is insufficient

Thirdly, because of the long-term implementation of the financial system dominated by indirect bank financing in the past, enterprises are operating with high debt, and the proportion of their own funds is very low. If we continue to increase loans by a large margin, the problem of non-performing loans will become more prominent

Fourthly, the implementation of active fiscal policy itself includes the use of monetary policy, the issuance of additional treasury bonds, and the participation of banks in the purchase, which itself includes the use of monetary policy to support economic growth

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extended information:

memorabilia

the first quarter of 2015

on January 21, the people's Bank of China and the Swiss National Bank signed a memoranm of cooperation to reach an agreement on the establishment of RMB clearing arrangements in Switzerland, It also agreed to expand the RMB qualified foreign institutional investor (rqfii) pilot area to Switzerland, with an investment amount of 50 billion yuan

on January 22, the people's Bank of China and China Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued announcement No. 3 of 2015, allowing insurance companies to issue capital replenishment bonds in the national interbank bond market

On January 28, the people's Bank of China reported to the finance and Economics Committee of the National People's Congress on the implementation of monetary policy in 2014

On February 5, the people's Bank of China lowered the RMB deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points. At the same time, in order to further enhance the ability of financial institutions to support structural adjustment, we should increase support for small and micro enterprises, "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" and major water conservancy projects

for urban commercial banks and non county rural commercial banks whose proportion of loans to small and micro enterprises reaches the standard of targeted rection of reserve requirements, the RMB deposit reserve ratio will be reced by 0.5 percentage points, and for Agricultural Development Bank of China, the RMB deposit reserve ratio will be reced by 4 percentage points

on February 6, the people's Bank of China issued the notice on developing the standing loan facility operation of branches across the country (Yin Fa [2015] No. 43) and the notice on printing and distributing the guidelines of the people's Bank of China on refinancing and standing loan facility collateral (Trial Implementation) (Yin Fa [2015] No. 42)

on the basis of the pilot operation of standing loan facilities in branches of 10 provinces (cities) in the early stage, we should promote the standing loan facilities of branches across the country and improve the channels for the central bank to provide liquidity support for small and medium-sized financial institutions

on February 10, the fourth quarter of 2014 China's monetary policy implementation report was released

On March 1, the people's Bank of China lowered the benchmark interest rates of RMB loans and deposits of financial institutions. Among them, the benchmark one-year loan interest rate of financial institutions was reced by 0.25 percentage point to 5.35%; The benchmark one-year deposit rate was cut by 0.25 percentage point to 2.5%

at the same time, combined with promoting the reform of interest rate marketization, the upper limit of the floating range of deposit interest rate of financial institutions was adjusted from 1.2 times of the benchmark deposit interest rate to 1.3 times; The benchmark interest rates of deposits and loans of other grades and the interest rates of deposits and loans of indivial housing provident fund will be adjusted accordingly

On March 18, the people's Bank of China and the Central Bank of Suriname signed a bilateral local currency swap agreement with the scale of 1 billion yuan / 520 million Suriname yuan

On March 20, the State Council approved the deepening reform plan of China Development Bank and the overall plan for the reform and implementation of the Export Import Bank of China, requiring the people's Bank of China to seriously organize the implementation together with relevant units in accordance with the requirements of the plan and the division of responsibilities

On March 25, the people's Bank of China and the Central Bank of Armenia signed a bilateral local currency swap agreement with the scale of 1 billion yuan / 77 billion Armenian DRAMs

on March 26, the people's Bank of China issued announcement No. 7 of 2015, simplifying the issuance management process of credit asset-backed securities, improving the efficiency and transparency of issuance management, promoting the trustee and sponsor to improve the quality of information disclosure, effectively protecting the legitimate rights and interests of investors, and promoting the healthy development of credit asset securitization business

on March 30, in order to further improve the indivial housing credit policy, support the demand for self occupied and improved housing, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market, the people's Bank of China, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development and the China Banking Regulatory Commission jointly issued the notice on issues related to indivial housing loan policy (Yin Fa [2015] No. 98)

On March 30, the people's Bank of China and the Reserve Bank of Australia renewed the bilateral local currency swap agreement with the scale of 200 billion yuan / 40 billion Australian yuan

On March 31, the monetary policy committee of the people's Bank of China held its regular meeting in the first quarter of 2015

on March 31, the "deposit insurance regulations" was promulgated and will come into force on May 1, 2015

2.

Take RMB as an example

(1) put forward the issuance plan of RMB and determine the annual money supply. Every year, the head office of the people's Bank of China puts forward a plan for currency issuance and withdrawal in accordance with the state's economic and social development plan, which shall be submitted to the State Council for approval before implementation. Including the design, printing and reserve of tickets and coins

(2) the money supply plan approved by the State Council and approved by the people's Bank of China

(3) allocate the issuing funds. The issuing fund is the currency to be issued kept by the central bank for the state. It is a reserve fund for currency issuance, which does not have the nature of currency. It is kept by the people's banks at all levels that set up the issuance Treasury, and is under the unified control of the head office. The right to use the issuance fund belongs to the general Treasury

< P > (4) daily cash receipt and payment of the general banking business Treasury. The currency issue of RMB is mainly realized through the cash collection and payment business activities of commercial banks. After the commercial banks transfer the issuance funds of the people's Bank of China's issuance Treasury into the business Treasury, they pay the units and indivials from the business treasury through the cash cashier, and the RMB banknotes enter the market. This is called "cash injection."

at the same time, all commercial banks have to recover a certain amount of cash from the market every day. When the inventory currency of the business library exceeds the specified limit, the excess part should be sent to the issuing library for safekeeping. This is called "cash return". The process of currency from issue library to business library is called "issue", that is, currency issue; The process of money returning from the business library to the issuing library is called "warehousing", that is, money withdrawal

The current currency issuing system actually refers to the issuing system of non cash credit currency. The currency issuing system of western countries has inherited the management method of bank notes issuing, emphasizing the supervision of the state, so as to ensure the appropriate issuance of currency and maintain the stability of currency value in the country or even the region. Almost all countries centralize the right of currency issuance to their central banks, stipulate the maximum amount of issuance, the conditions of flexible issuance, and the corresponding conditions of issuance guarantee

China's currency issuance right is concentrated in the people's Bank of China, which implements highly centralized management and adheres to the principle of economic issuance. Except the people's Bank of China, no region, no unit, no indivial is allowed to issue any currency or currency in disguised form, and no one has the right to use the national currency issuance fund. RMB is released through the credit procere of national bank

3. That is to put 386 billion yuan into policy banks and national commercial banks to meet the short-term demand for large amount of money liquidity
standing lending facility (SLF) is a liquidity adjustment tool created by the central bank in 2013. Its main function is to meet the short-term large amount liquidity demand of financial institutions. The main targets are policy banks and national commercial banks. The period is 1-3 months. The interest rate level is determined according to the needs of monetary policy regulation and market interest rate guidance. Standing loan facilities are issued by way of mortgage, and qualified collateral includes high credit rating bond assets and high-quality credit assets< One is initiated by financial institutions, which can apply for standing loan facilities according to their own liquidity needs
Second, standing loan facility is a "one-to-one" transaction between the central bank and financial institutions, with strong pertinence
thirdly, standing lending facilities cover a wide range of counterparties, usually covering deposit taking financial institutions.

4. The purpose is to increase the liquidity of market money, in short, the central bank is to make the market liquidity higher
reverse repo by the central bank is a transaction in which the people's Bank of China purchases securities from primary dealers and agrees to sell the securities back to primary dealers on a specific date in the future. That is to obtain the pledged bonds and lend the money to commercial banks. The main purpose is to release liquidity to the market and, of course, obtain interest income from repurchase. The operation is that the central bank lends money to the commercial bank, and the commercial bank mortgages the bonds to the central bank. When it matures, the commercial bank pays back the money, and the bonds return to the commercial bank account
in most developed countries, open market operation is the main monetary policy tool for the central bank to handle the base currency and regulate the market liquidity. Through the central bank and market counterparties to carry out securities and foreign exchange transactions, we can achieve the goal of monetary policy regulation. China's open market operation includes RMB operation and foreign exchange operation. Foreign exchange open market operation started in March 1994, RMB open market operation resumed trading on May 26, 1998, and the scale graally expanded. Since 1999, the open market operation has developed rapidly. At present, it has become one of the main tools of the people's Bank of China's monetary policy daily operation. It has played a positive role in regulating the liquidity level of the banking system, guiding the trend of money market interest rates, and promoting the reasonable growth of money supply
the people's Bank of China has established the primary dealer system for open market business since 1998, and selected a number of commercial banks that can undertake large amount bond trading as the trading objects of open market business. In recent years, the primary dealer system of open market business has been continuously improved, and relevant management systems such as the evaluation and adjustment mechanism of primary dealers and the information reporting system have been established successively. The institutional category of primary dealers has also expanded from commercial banks to securities companies and other financial institutions
in terms of transaction types, the bond transactions of the open market business of the people's Bank of China mainly include repo transactions, cash bond transactions and issuance of central bank bills. There are two types of repo: forward repo and reverse repo. Forward repo is the transaction of the people's Bank of China selling securities to the primary dealers and agreeing to buy back the securities on a specific date in the future. Forward repo is the operation of the central bank to recover liquidity from the market, and forward repo is the operation of the central bank to put liquidity into the market; Reverse repo refers to the transaction that the people's Bank of China purchases securities from primary dealers and agrees to sell the securities to primary dealers on a specific date in the future. Reverse repo refers to the operation that the central bank puts liquidity into the market. When reverse repo matures, it refers to the operation that the central bank takes back liquidity from the market. The former is that the central bank directly buys bonds from the secondary market and puts in the base currency at one time; The latter is for the central bank to sell the bonds directly and withdraw the base currency at one time. The central bank bills are short-term bonds issued by the people's Bank of China. The central bank can withdraw the base currency by issuing the central bank bills, and the maturity of the central bank bills is reflected in the delivery of the base currency
according to the needs of monetary regulation and control, the people's Bank of China has continuously carried out open market business tool innovation in recent years. In January 2013, based on the existing monetary policy framework and international experience, the people's Bank of China created "short-term liquidity operations (SLO)" as a necessary supplement to the normal operation of the open market, which can be used when the liquidity of the banking system fluctuates temporarily. The timely creation of this tool is not only concive to the central bank's effective regulation of short-term capital supply in the market, smoothing the sharp fluctuations of market capital supply and demand caused by sudden and temporary factors, promoting the smooth operation of the financial market, but also helps to stabilize market expectations and effectively prevent financial risks.

5. 1. SLO, the decline of excess reserve requirements, the return of cash after the festival, and the increase of foreign exchange account all contribute to the increase of the base currency, so the money flowing in the market increases and the liquidity increases
foreign exchange account refers to the local currency invested by the Central Bank of the recipient country in the acquisition of foreign exchange assets. As RMB is a non freely convertible currency, foreign capital needs to be converted into RMB before it can be used in circulation. In order to exchange foreign capital, the state needs to invest a large amount of funds and needs the state to purchase foreign exchange with its own currency. Therefore, the "money supply" is increased, resulting in the foreign exchange account
2. The number of days of positive repo is stipulated, 28 days = 4 weeks, 91 days = 3 months
there are still 7 days of positive repo, which is usually a multiple of weeks and months, but the period here is relatively long
it is also said here that it is "a long-term liquidity withdrawal tool"
3. Positive repo shrinks liquidity, and the positive repo of the central bank offsets the effect of reverse repo. So liquidity does not only come from reverse repurchase. In other words, "the source of liquidity is not limited to the open market (mainly short-term limited reverse repurchase transactions)"

6. The central economic work conference has pointed out the direction for next year's monetary policy, that is, to implement a prudent monetary policy, we should pay attention to the degree of control and enhance the flexibility of operation. We should appropriately expand the total scale of social financing, maintain a moderate increase in loans, keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable, and effectively rece the financing cost of the development of the real economy

by the end of this year, the economy has shown signs of stabilization and recovery, inflation pressure has eased significantly and entered the "2" era. However, the other side of the coin is that foreign demand is still weak e to the continuous impact of the international financial crisis, and domestic endogenous growth momentum is still insufficient. Such an economic situation objectively requires the monetary policy to remain stable. It is not easy to relax and prevent inflation from rising again; We should not turn to tightening to stifle the vitality of economic recovery. Steadiness will remain the keynote of monetary policy next year
the central economic work conference has pointed out the direction for next year's monetary policy, that is, to implement a prudent monetary policy, we should pay attention to the degree of control and enhance the flexibility of operation. We should appropriately expand the total scale of social financing, maintain a moderate increase in loans, keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable, and effectively rece the financing cost of the development of the real economy
analysts pointed out that the economic situation and monetary environment are complex and changeable, so it is necessary to weigh monetary policy carefully, enhance the foresight, pertinence and flexibility of regulation, and continue to balance economic growth, price stability and risk prevention. We will adhere to the flexibility of open market operation in the choice of instruments, and there is room for the rection of deposit reserve ratio and benchmark interest rate

under the background of initial stabilization of economy, complex inflation situation and continuous quantitative easing policy of major international economies, how will China's monetary policy work this year
after maintaining the "steady" tone for two consecutive years, the central economic work conference held at the end of last year decided that China's monetary policy will continue to be "steady" in 2013. On December 31, 2012, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the people's Bank of China, said in his new year's speech that in 2013, we will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy and enhance its foresight, pertinence and flexibility. However, the market generally believes that, compared with the past, although the expression is "steady", its connotation has new content
"although both are & quot; Robust & quot;, But there will be great changes in the focus, pace and strength of the policy. " Analysts from ICBC believe that throughout the year, the complexity of the economic situation determines the difficulty of monetary policy implementation: when the economy initially recovers, it encounters inflationary pressure, when the international environment is difficult to recover, the domestic endogenous power has not really started, and when the impact of the last round of stimulus policies has not been eliminated, it ushers in a new round of "investment fever", In addition, financial regional and instrial risks may graally accumulate and expose, which will make it more difficult to control the financial macro-control in 2013
"based on the requirement of stable growth, last year's prudent monetary policy has the following characteristics in practice; A little loose in stability & quot; This year, taking into account the price pressure and international capital flow situation, it is expected that the monetary policy will turn from moderate easing in 2012 to neutral, that is, neither significant expansion nor significant easing Zong Liang, deputy director of International Finance Research Institute of Bank of China (601988, Guba), pointed out
experts say that this year's monetary policy operation needs to pay attention to several factors: first, the complexity of the economic situation. China's economy is stepping into the track of healthy development, but the current economic structural adjustment has just begun, and the relationship between steady growth and structural adjustment needs to be further balanced; In addition, a series of domestic reform and development issues are intertwined with the international financial situation, which makes the overall economic situation of China in 2013 not optimistic. Experts predict that the complexity of the economic situation determines that the pre adjustment and fine adjustment of monetary policy this year may be more than in previous years
the second is the increasing inflation pressure. Recently released in January CPI year-on-year growth of 2%, far higher than the previous market expectations. Instry insiders expect that, coupled with festival factors, CPI may have a relatively large growth rate in February. With the increase of PPI on a month on month basis, the pressure of inflation this year is a big problem that the central bank has to pay attention to. On February 6, the central bank issued the fourth quarter of 2012 monetary policy implementation report. The tone remained unchanged, but the expression of "managing inflation expectations" became "controlling inflation", which also showed vigilance against inflation pressure. How to achieve a balance between economic growth and price stability will be the focus of monetary policy this year< The third is the negative spillover effect of international quantitative easing policy. At present, after several rounds of quantitative easing, the overflowing liquidity in the international market is flowing to emerging markets. One of the negative spillover effects of quantitative easing is to interfere with the independence of monetary policy. Experts predict that this year's international capital turmoil will also have an impact on China's monetary policy operation. In addition, the rapid expansion of domestic credit at the beginning of the year is very obvious, a new round of investment boom is rising, and the M2 growth in January reached more than 16%. From these situations, it is urgent to further strengthen the liquidity management< In an interview with the media, Zhao Qingming, an expert on international financial issues, said that from the situation in 2013, the implementation of monetary policy may tend to be stable and loose in the first half of the year, and stable and tight in the second half of the year. He explained that from the current international and domestic economic situation, although the recovery has been determined, the strength is still relatively weak, so the monetary policy needs to be loose; In the second half of the year, considering the base, the inflation pressure will be greater than that in the first half of the year, and the monetary policy will tend to be tight
in the use of monetary policy tools, some analysts said that the current one-year deposit interest rate is about 3%, while the CPI growth rate in 2013 may reach about 3% to 3.5%, which means that the possibility of future interest rate rection is very small. At the same time, as the interest rates of the United States, Europe and Japan are close to zero, China's interest rate increase may lead to more large-scale short-term capital inflow, and the possibility of interest rate increase in 2013 is not expected. The benchmark interest rate may remain at the current level, but the floating range of the benchmark interest rate may continue to enlarge
market analysts generally believe that the change space of deposit reserve ratio depends on the flow of international capital in the next stage. Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, predicted that although the growth continued to follow the path of moderate recovery, the basis for recovery was not stable. Based on the judgment that the amount e in the open market and foreign exchange account could not recover significantly this year, the rection of reserve requirement in the first half of the year was still a probable event. Another person in the instry said that if short-term capital turns into a large inflow, there is no room for a significant rection in the statutory deposit reserve ratio
"judging from the implementation effect of the whole year last year, the central bank is adept and effective in using open market operation tools. Compared with the RRR rection, the term of reverse repurchase is shorter, the released liquidity can be recovered in time when it matures, and it has more flexibility. The central bank launched SLO in January, which further enriched short-term liquidity management tools. It is expected that open market operation will still be the main means to strengthen liquidity management this year. " Huaan securities analysts said
according to the research report recently released by ABC, reverse repurchase is still the main operation in the open market this year. If we do not consider the fiscal deposits, the factors that affect the liquidity mainly include foreign exchange, legal deposit reserve and open market operation, among which the open market operation is more flexible and controllable. It is estimated that 1034 billion yuan of central bank bills will be e in 2013, 249 billion yuan more than last year, mainly in the second and third quarters. It is expected that the central bank will continue to use reverse repurchase to regulate liquidity between quarters
"to implement a prudent monetary policy this year is to meet the money demand of the reasonable growth of China's real economy, at the same time, constantly adjust and fine tune according to the economic development trend, enhance policy flexibility and foresight, and at the same time, continuously cooperate with the reform of all parties, coordinate and promote the reform of interest rate and exchange rate and the opening of capital account. In addition, we should also note that monetary policy is not & quot; Guarantee the world & quot; In order to realize the steady development of China's economy, it is necessary to further strengthen the cooperation and coordination among policies, and actively play the role of fiscal policy and instrial policy. " Zong Liangcheng

7. That's it. Please refer to it. Please accept it. Thank you< The central bank announced a sudden interest rate cut on Wednesday night: the RMB deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions will be reced by 0.5 percentage points from Thursday; the reserve ratio of financial institutions will be reced by 0.5 percentage points from Thursday; At the same time, for the urban commercial banks and non county rural commercial banks whose loan proportion of small and micro enterprises reaches the standard of targeted rection, the RMB deposit reserve ratio will be reced by an additional 0.5 percentage point; For the Agricultural Development Bank of China, the RMB deposit reserve ratio will be reced by 4 percentage points<

the following is a comment on the central bank's standard rection -

[People's livelihood macro: run, central bank!]

Event: the central bank reced the deposit reserve by 0.5 percentage points, and targeted to rece the reserve requirements of urban commercial banks, rural commercial banks and other institutions, initially estimated to release about 660 billion yuan of liquidity

① in order to hedge the inflow of foreign exchange, when the foreign exchange account shrinks, it is expected that the foreign exchange account for the whole year will have zero growth, and the necessity of maintaining the existing reserve ratio will decline. Under the assumption of zero growth of foreign exchange, the base currency gap is about 3 trillion, which means that the rection of reserve requirement will not happen only once

2) the global central banks released water, the pressure on exchange rate reced, and the focus of China's monetary policy turned to the tightening effect of high exchange rate and interest rate on the economy

3. The interest rate and reserve ratio rection are carried out in cooperation with the recent infrastructure projects, reflecting the intention of the central government to stabilize growth and mitigate the risk of existing debt< (4) the relationship between RRR rection and monetary multiplier can not be viewed mechanically, and the economy may not improve immediately after RRR rection. The premise of lowering the reserve requirement to improve the monetary multiplier is that banks will increase their willingness to provide credit, the economy still has downward pressure, the shrinking trend of bank risk preference is difficult to change, and the rection of reserve requirement has limited impact on money creation and economic stimulus< It is expected that monetary policy will remain loose in the future, and PSL will take turns to rece reserve requirements and interest rates. The driving force of economic growth is not strong, asset prices benefit from monetary easing, and the double bull of stocks and bonds is expected to continue

[Guangfa's strategy of recing accuracy and speed: garbage time is over, and dimension rection attack is on!]

the "three-step" logic we put forward in early January has been perfectly confirmed (the first step is to standardize the capital flow to the stock market; The second step is to speed up the release of new shares; The third step: the central bank starts another monetary easing. According to our previous logic, the first two steps are "garbage time" for the stock market. Today, we have taken the third step of recing the standard. We think there is no hesitation and we turn to attack in an all-round way The core logic does not lie in how much liquidity will be released by recing the reserve requirement, but in the fact that recing the reserve requirement finally confirms the channel of monetary policy easing, which will once again promote the transfer of residents' stock assets to the stock market). As for the allocation instry, considering that the institutional allocation of the big financial sector is too strong after the last interest rate cut, it is suggested to "rece dimension attack" and over allocate those traditional cyclical procts that also benefit from liquidity relaxation, low institutional allocation in the early stage, and are positively related to the rise of oil prices - chemical instry, oil services, coal, nonferrous metals< The people's Bank of China has decided to rece the RMB deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points since February 5, 2015; At the same time, for urban commercial banks and non county rural commercial banks whose proportion of loans to small and micro enterprises has reached the standard of targeted rection of reserve requirements, the RMB deposit reserve ratio will be reced by 0.5 percentage points, and for Agricultural Development Bank of China, the RMB deposit reserve ratio will be reced by 4 percentage points. Our brief comments on this information are as follows:

first, the rection of RRR is fully in line with the policy logic and our expectations. Although there are various explanations for not lowering the reserve requirement in the market, we always think that it is almost inevitable. In the report of "will it be far to cut the interest rate? Will it be far to cut the reserve rate?" we clearly pointed out that "between the two interest rate cuts, there will be a drop in the reserve rate.". First, in the era of hot money outflow, the high reserve ratio has lost its logical rationality; Second, when the early innovation tools are e, new money is needed; Third, according to the situation of weak economy and low multiplier, we should increase the monetary multiplier. If the rection of interest rate is demand management, the rection of reserve requirement is supply management. Only by combining the two can the effect be achieved

Second, from the performance of PMI and some high-frequency indicators from January to February, the economy in the first quarter was worse than that in the fourth quarter of last year, and the trend growth rate should have dropped to around 7.1. We expect the annual GDP target value to be 7.0, that is, the economic situation has approached the policy bottom line at the beginning of the year, and the pressure to achieve the annual target has increased. In this case, monetary policy has no choice but to actively participate in stable growth

Third, the rection will release more than 600 billion yuan. A general rection of 0.5 points will release more than 500 billion yuan. With the targeted rection of urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks and the additional rection of Agricultural Development Bank, it is conservatively estimated that the amount of funds released should be more than 600 billion yuan

Fourth, the RRR rection will lead the downward trend of capital interest rate through the increase of liquidity adequacy; However, under the background of the economic downturn and the general decline of bank risk preference, the effect of recing the reserve ratio on recing the financing cost is limited, so it is still necessary to rece the interest rate to guide the downward trend of social financing cost. We expect that the interest rate cut will be put on the agenda after this time<

[Wen bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank: it reflects the moderate tightness of monetary policy]

this rection of reserve requirements is the first time to adopt the general rection plus targeted rection, which is another innovation in the use of monetary policy tools and reflects the moderate tightness of monetary policy. In the fourth quarter of last year, China's capital account deficit was more than 90 billion yuan, and the outflow of capital led to the contraction of foreign exchange. In December of last year, there was a negative growth of more than 120 billion yuan. With the increase of the current expectation of RMB devaluation, foreign exchange will continue to decline in the next few months. It is a palliative policy for the central bank to rely only on reverse repurchase, MLF and other policy tools to supplement liquidity, At this time, it is particularly necessary and timely to rece the reserve requirement!. There will be no interest rate rection measures in the near future. The effect of interest rate rection in November last year will be reflected in the repricing of stock loans in January this year, which should play a certain role in recing the financing cost of the real economy. It is expected that the window of further interest rate rection will be opened in the second quarter according to the changes of macroeconomic situation<

[Galaxy Securities pan Xiangdong: it is expected to release about 650 billion of base currency]

this is the first time that the central bank has comprehensively lowered the reserve requirement in two and a half years. It is expected to release about 650 billion of base currency, which can release about 2.6 trillion of liquidity calculated by a conservative four times currency multiplier

the background of this comprehensive rection is as follows:

1) there is a continuous deficit in capital and financial projects, and the situation of capital outflow is grim. Yesterday, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced a capital and financial account deficit of 559.5 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2014, the largest quarterly deficit since at least 1998. The recent devaluation of RMB and the lower than expected economic data of China will only increase the outflow of funds, and the medium-term interest rate increase of the United States is expected to intensify this trend

2) domestic economic data continued to be lower than expected, inflation was lower, and domestic economic growth was always facing greater pressure

3) since late December last year, the liquidity of banks has become tight. Although the central bank has used 855 billion SLO, increased MLF, restarted reverse repurchase and other short-term liquidity tools to regulate the two financial services, the interest rate in the money market has always been on the high side, and the liquidity tension of banks has not been eased well. With the approach of the Spring Festival, IPO opens again, and the contradiction between supply and demand of short-term funds only rises

4) the global central banks' intensive easing and competitive devaluation increase the pressure of RMB devaluation, and the RMB devaluation also increases the pressure of capital outflow

conclusion: 1. The central bank's move will significantly ease the liquidity pressure ring the Spring Festival in the short term, the money market interest rate is expected to decline significantly, asset prices are supported, but there is still pressure of capital outflow in the medium and long term. 2. Although the short-term economic downward pressure increases and the demand for real capital is not strong, the government debt rollover and stable growth projects will increase the supply of direct financing. The rection of reserve requirement is concive to coping with the rising demand for this part of capital, not only to stabilize the economy, but also to prevent risks. 3. Although loose policy will cause certain pressure on RMB exchange rate and aggravate capital outflow in theory, RMB is still a managed floating exchange rate system. Economic stability and steady progress of reform are concive to the stability of RMB exchange rate. Moreover, at present, the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is still close to 20%, more than 20 trillion base currencies are locked, the openness of capital account is limited, and there is still sufficient space to cope with capital outflow. 4. With the improvement of two-way openness of capital account, domestic capital has taken the initiative to go out, and the rection of reserve requirement can also cooperate with the internationalization of RMB. 5. Last year, under the background of the decline of the overall investment growth rate, the growth rate of investment in primary instry increased steadily. It is expected that the portfolio of total hedging and directional easing will continue in the future.

8. The fishing fire on the river reflects the red maple trees, and I can't sleep when I'm worried
Oh, the famous Hanshan Temple outside Suzhou;

9. Hot spots must be combined with knowledge points; Learn to distinguish financial hotspots
where to pay attention to them? Wall street news, FT Chinese, China finance 40 forum, Wukou School of finance, Tsinghua University, finance sisanyao
what hot spots should we pay attention to? 1. Discussion on macroeconomic situation and current macroeconomic policies 2. Discussion on Open Economy: balance of payments, RMB exchange rate, RMB internationalization 3. Financial supervision: existing supervision mode and problems, reform policies 4. Capital market reform and development: financing preference 5. Interest rate liberalization reform 6. Internet Finance 7. 10th anniversary of financial crisis: Post Crisis Era
about financial hot spots, How to use the principle of finance to analyze< 1. GDP growth (6.9% higher than expected)

2. CPI: overall stability

3. Balance of payments

how to get a high score:

1. Use IS-LM model to draw a picture and answer questions clearly

2. Unconventional monetary policy, Hot and sour noodles)

(Thinking: what is unconventional monetary policy?)< 2. Discussion on Open Economy: balance of payments, RMB exchange rate, RMB internationalization (key)

International Finance: 1. Double surplus in the first half of 2017& gt; RMB appreciation

about RMB appreciation, we can find: 1. Reasons 2. Influence (good + bad) 3. Countermeasures

(thinking) reasons for capital account surplus<

foreign exchange reserves: increase (if you want to score high, you need to use data)

RMB internationalization - RMB internationalization report< What is the concept of RMB internationalization? 2. What are the requirements? 3. The process of RMB internationalization? 4. The impact of RMB internationalization on China

10. The purpose is to increase the liquidity of market money, in short, the central bank is to make the market liquidity higher
reverse repo by the central bank is a transaction in which the people's Bank of China purchases securities from primary dealers and agrees to sell the securities back to primary dealers on a specific date in the future. That is to obtain the pledged bonds and lend the money to commercial banks. The main purpose is to release liquidity to the market and, of course, obtain interest income from repurchase. The operation is that the central bank lends money to the commercial bank, and the commercial bank mortgages the bonds to the central bank. When it matures, the commercial bank pays back the money, and the bonds return to the commercial bank account
in most developed countries, open market operation is the main monetary policy tool for the central bank to handle the base currency and regulate the market liquidity. Through the central bank and market counterparties to carry out securities and foreign exchange transactions, we can achieve the goal of monetary policy regulation. China's open market operation includes RMB operation and foreign exchange operation. Foreign exchange open market operation started in March 1994, RMB open market operation resumed trading on May 26, 1998, and the scale graally expanded. Since 1999, the open market operation has developed rapidly. At present, it has become one of the main tools of the people's Bank of China's monetary policy daily operation. It has played a positive role in regulating the liquidity level of the banking system, guiding the trend of money market interest rates, and promoting the reasonable growth of money supply
the people's Bank of China has established the primary dealer system for open market business since 1998, and selected a number of commercial banks that can undertake large amount bond trading as the trading objects of open market business. In recent years, the primary dealer system of open market business has been continuously improved, and relevant management systems such as the evaluation and adjustment mechanism of primary dealers and the information reporting system have been established successively. The institutional category of primary dealers has also expanded from commercial banks to securities companies and other financial institutions
in terms of transaction types, the bond transactions of the open market business of the people's Bank of China mainly include repo transactions, cash bond transactions and issuance of central bank bills. There are two types of repo: forward repo and reverse repo. Forward repo is the transaction of the people's Bank of China selling securities to the primary dealers and agreeing to buy back the securities on a specific date in the future. Forward repo is the operation of the central bank to recover liquidity from the market, and forward repo is the operation of the central bank to put liquidity into the market; Reverse repo refers to the transaction that the people's Bank of China purchases securities from primary dealers and agrees to sell the securities to primary dealers on a specific date in the future. Reverse repo refers to the operation that the central bank puts liquidity into the market. When reverse repo matures, it refers to the operation that the central bank takes back liquidity from the market. The former is that the central bank directly buys bonds from the secondary market and puts in the base currency at one time; The latter is for the central bank to sell the bonds directly and withdraw the base currency at one time. The central bank bills are short-term bonds issued by the people's Bank of China. The central bank can withdraw the base currency by issuing the central bank bills, and the maturity of the central bank bills is reflected in the delivery of the base currency
according to the needs of monetary regulation and control, the people's Bank of China has continuously carried out open market business tool innovation in recent years. In January 2013, based on the existing monetary policy framework and international experience, the people's Bank of China created "short-term liquidity operations (SLO)" as a necessary supplement to the normal operation of the open market, which can be used when the liquidity of the banking system fluctuates temporarily. The timely creation of this tool is not only concive to the central bank's effective regulation of short-term capital supply in the market, smoothing the sharp fluctuations of market capital supply and demand caused by sudden and temporary factors, promoting the smooth operation of the financial market, but also helps to stabilize market expectations and effectively prevent financial risks.