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Publish: 2021-03-28 22:07:13
1. Money will change from "atomic form" to "bit form", and electronic money will become a milestone in the history of money< From the credit card invented by American McNamara in the 1950s to today, e-money has various forms such as smart card, digital cash, e-check, e-wallet, etc. The analysis of the reasons for the emergence of e-money can be concluded as follows:
(1) the pursuit of profit maximization is the basic reason for the emergence of e-money
e to the increasingly fierce competition in the financial instry, the profits brought by the traditional business are getting thinner and thinner, which forces financial enterprises to carry out continuous innovation to overcome the decline. In this way, business innovation for high returns provides an opportunity for the emergence of e-money. For e-money providers, issuing e-money can be used as financial innovation to find new profit growth points; It can also be used as a new service means to attract customers to increase potential revenue< (2) the rise of e-commerce inherently requires the development of e-money.
e to the progress of information technology and the in-depth application of network in commercial trade, new business models such as online shopping and virtual transaction give people new consumption experience and inconvenience in payment. There is an inherent demand for the new form of money that can pay quickly and safely. Electronic money can not only meet this demand, but also has the basic monetary characteristics, which can be widely accepted by people. Therefore, the rapid development of electronic money in this environment is logical< (3) the development of information and encryption technology provides technical support for the development of e-money.
without the high development of information technology and encryption technology, it is inconceivable that all kinds of e-money forms, including credit cards, stored value cards and digital cash, can be widely accepted and used today, Because people's demand for money can be generally accepted, but also has high requirements for its security. That is to say, electronic money itself must be safe and should be considered safe at the same time before it can be widely circulated; With the development of information technology and encryption technology, this security is greatly guaranteed< (4) recing transaction costs is the fundamental reason for the emergence and development of e-money; At the same time, its size and weight graally decreased, and graally evolved from visible to invisible; All these changes are to improve the efficiency of money circulation, rece the cost of money circulation, and thus rece the transaction cost of goods, which is also the fundamental reason for the emergence and development of e-money< In the development of e-money, there were e-cash, digital cash, e-wallet and e-check, but in practice, these e-money are issued and used on the basis of the original cash or deposit, not an independent form of currency. Theoretically speaking, electronic currency should have the following conditions to become an independent form of currency
(1) independent means of payment
as an independent form of currency, when electronic money is used for payment, when it is transferred from one party to the other party in the form of data information through the network, the money and goods are settled, and the transaction shall be declared completed immediately. However, e to the different degree of recognition and inter instry restrictions, e-money is not generally accepted in payment. In many cases, only by converting it into traditional currency in the same proportion can we meet the transaction demand; At present, it is almost impossible for indivials to borrow and pay directly through e-money. Therefore, what can mark the completion of payment is the transfer of cash and currency in the form of deposit, and what truly reflects the credit of transaction is the cash or deposit before being electronic and digitized. Therefore, if e-money wants to become an independent currency into circulation, independent payment function is a necessary condition
(2) independent value scale
in terms of the use of value scale, the current e-money is also inseparable from the support of traditional currency. This is not because the e-money lacks the currency price standard (yuan) 3. Such a measurement is only an artificial agreed benchmark. In ancient China, there were many kinds of currency measurement, such as Wen, Diao, and so on. Since the paper money can use yuan, Naturally, electronic money can also be used. Even if it's called "bit", it doesn't matter. It's not the essence of the problem
at present, e-money can not implement an independent value scale. The fundamental reason is that after putting aside the currency that supports it, it does not have enough credit to be generally accepted by people. Moreover, money is not only an economic phenomenon, but also a social phenomenon. Influenced by the concept inertia of the social people who use it, when it circulates together with paper money, it can not get rid of its influence, so it can only rely on paper money as an indirect measure of value< (3) independent means of value storage
the current value storage function of e-money also depends on traditional currency, because the existing e-money in people's hands is still a stored value card converted from cash, or a bank card guaranteed by deposit, etc., and the e-money thus obtained is still based on cash or deposit, when the number of the card becomes small or zero, So the electronic currency can never get rid of the quantity restriction of the original currency in the holder's hand. In this way, e-money as a means of value storage is not worthy of the name. So in this sense, e-money itself does not have the function of value storage< (4) independent issuing method
a truly independent form of currency should be issued independently, not on the basis of other currencies. If there is no independence in issuance, its independence in circulation is relatively limited. When there is a credit crisis, it is required to be converted into the original currency to support its issuance, so it can not get rid of the influence of the original currency. Therefore, the current electronic currency is still a secondary currency form supported by traditional currency, which is the early development form of independent electronic currency< There is a view abroad that the development of e-money has greatly reced the public demand for the central bank's basic money, thus recing the scale of the central bank's assets and liabilities, making "the central bank in the future will become only a signalman army, it can only point out the development prospects of monetary policy to the private sector, In this way, the ability of the central bank to implement monetary policy is weakened; Moreover, the development of e-money will replace the demand for central bank money, even the payment and settlement services provided by the central bank and the role of lender of last resort. In this case, "monetary policy will lose its role in stabilizing the economy, and the central bank can only fade out of the stage of monetary policy.". 5
(1) the position of the central bank in the economy will not be replaced
first of all, the position of the central bank in currency issuance can not be replaced, which has been mentioned in the above discussion. Secondly, in terms of the current development of social credit, enterprise or private credit is far from the level of national credit. Therefore, the risk and cost of commercial banks using the private sector system for payment and settlement is still very high, and it is relatively economic to choose the central bank for payment and settlement services; Similarly, the central bank's status as lender of last resort has not been shaken
(2) the effect of central bank's monetary policy will not be weakened
in the short term, the impact of e-money will not be weakened, on the contrary, it may enhance the effect of monetary policy. Generally speaking, the change of the central bank's base money controls the money supply through the money multiplier, which affects the interest rate, the aggregate demand and the actual output. The development of e-money first leads to the expansion of the money multiplier. According to the following monetary multiplier formula,

Where, and K are legal reserves, excess reserves and cash leakage rate respectively. The development of e-money makes the public use less cash. For commercial banks, that is the decline of cash leakage rate. At the same time, commercial banks also minimize their excess reserves, because computerization enables them to accurately calculate the daily required reserve positions. If the central bank cancels the legal reserve system again, these three variables will be greatly reced, and the monetary multiplier will be correspondingly expanded. At this time, if there is a small change in the basic money supply, the whole money supply will increase greatly. Therefore, the effect of monetary policy is not weakened, but is greatly enhanced by the "four or two" effect
in the long run, once people do not need the basic currency of the central bank for daily transactions and settlement, it is difficult to control the interest rate e to the change of money supply. Then the effect of the above monetary policy is bound to be greatly weakened
however, the previous interest rate regulation is mainly realized through the change of money supply. Based on the experience of New Zealand, Michel Woodford proposed that the overnight lending rate can be adjusted through the interest payment of reserve deposit without changing the money supply

the control mechanism is shown in the figure below, where br represents the interest rate lent by the central bank to commercial banks, TR is the target for the central bank to control the overnight lending rate, SCR is the interest rate paid by the central bank to commercial banks for reserve deposits, D1 and D2 are the base money demand curve of commercial banks under the condition of paper money and e-money respectively, D1 is flatter than D2 because at the same interest rate level, The demand for base money under the condition of e-money is much less than that under the condition of paper money. Br the horizontal line on the interest rate indicates that the central bank meets all the borrowing needs according to the set interest rate. The horizontal line on SCR interest rate indicates the track of interest payment for commercial banks' deposits in the central bank. The central bank's basic money supply is shown in the vertical part of the curve, that is, on the horizontal axis M. the basic money supply decided by the central bank is smaller than the daily trading volume of the market, and basically remains unchanged
in this interest rate determination mechanism, the central bank, as the lender of last resort, can provide any amount of base money at a given interest rate. The lending rate (BR) is higher than the overnight lending rate (TR) that the central bank wants to control, while the interest paid by the central bank on reserve deposits (SCR) is lower than the overnight lending rate. After meeting the liquidity demand, commercial banks deposit the surplus funds in the central bank account according to the deposit interest rate (SCR) The New Zealand Central Bank loan rate is 25 percentage points higher than the overnight lending rate, and the deposit rate is 25 percentage points lower than the overnight lending rate.) Because when the overnight lending rate is between the lending rate and the borrowing rate, no bank is willing to borrow money from the lending market at a rate higher than that of the central bank's loan, and no bank is willing to lend money to the lending market at a rate lower than that of the central bank's deposit, Instead of putting excess money in the central bank“ Because the transaction scale of commercial banks is very large, it is unnecessary for the central bank to participate in the transaction in person "(Brookes and Hampton, 2000). That is to say, the central bank does not have to change the money supply,
2. The exchange rate issue between China and the United States has always been the focus of contradictions between the two governments. Due to the different caliber of trade statistics, the understanding of exchange rate between the two countries is quite controversial. Therefore, we can see that the exchange rate issue has always been a troublesome issue. Since 80% of Global trade pricing and settlement are settled in US dollars, the US dollar has always been a tough voice, leading to the so-called embarrassing situation of "sneezing in the US and catching a cold all over the world". Non American countries have been suffering from the interference of US currency policy, which has led to the ups and downs of the foreign exchange market, stock market and real estate market, For example, after the financial crisis in 1987, 1997 and 2008, the United States adopted a low interest rate policy, which led to the passive follow-up of the whole world, interfered with the independence of financial policies of various countries, and affected the structural adjustment and development of the real economy
therefore, every country has the impulse to formulate its own global monetary policy plan, which is no longer affected by the US dollar and the US monetary policy, such as the establishment of the euro zone, the formulation of Venezuela's digital crude oil currency, the RMB settlement business of crude oil trade between China and Russia, and so on. All countries have started their own independent monetary policy and the beginning of the globalization process. The purpose is very simple. It is to get rid of the unfair influence of the US dollar and expand its global financial discourse. In fact, it is to reshape the global political and economic pattern, so the competition is particularly fierce. Before, Libya and Egypt were hit in order to get rid of the US dollar, and so are Venezuela and Russia
China's journey of RMB internationalization has just begun. Because China's economic aggregate ranks second only to the United States in the world, it has the foundation of currency internationalization. In addition, the trade tentacles are all over the world. Especially at present, our trade settlement is mainly in US dollars, but the appreciation of the people's currency leads to the decline of export competitiveness, Therefore, if the international trade settlement is carried out by RMB, there will be no exchange rate fluctuations and losses, the business management will be more benign, and the people can directly consume in RMB when they go abroad< One belt, one road, and the other, because of the function of seigniorage, Br can adjust the monetary policy based on globalization and keep the globalization of the country's economy healthy. For example, China's "one belt and one way" plan involves dozens of countries along the line. The exchange rate changes are very risky in every country. If we adopt the RMB internationalization settlement and other countries' reserve currency mode, We can control and coordinate the economic development model.
3. Enhance China's international status and enhance its influence on the world economy. The reason why US dollar, euro, yen and other currencies can act as international currencies is the full embodiment of the strong economic strength and high international credit status of the United States, the European Union and Japan. After the internationalization of RMB, China has the right to issue and regulate a world currency, and its influence and voice on global economic activities will also increase. At the same time, RMB has a place in the international monetary system, which can change the dominant position and rece the adverse impact of the international monetary system on China
rece the exchange rate risk and promote the development of China's international trade and investment. With the rapid development of foreign trade, foreign trade enterprises hold a large number of foreign currency claims and debts. Due to the large currency exposure risk, the fluctuation of exchange rate will have a certain impact on the operation of enterprises. After the internationalization of RMB, foreign trade and investment can be priced and settled in domestic currency, and the exchange rate risk faced by enterprises will also be reced, which can further promote the development of China's foreign trade and investment. At the same time, it will also promote the development of RMB denominated bonds and other financial markets
further promote the development of China's border trade. The cross-border flow of RMB cash in the real economy such as border trade and tourism alleviates the shortage of settlement means in bilateral exchanges to a certain extent, promotes and expands bilateral economic and trade exchanges, and speeds up the economic development of border minority areas. In addition, many neighboring countries are rich in natural resources and short of market supply, which is in sharp contrast to China's situation. The outflow of RMB out of China is concive to alleviating the shortage of natural resources and oversupply in the market
international seigniorage income. After the internationalization of RMB, the most direct and biggest income is the international seigniorage income. Seigniorage refers to the difference between the denomination and the cost of the note issued by the issuer with the privilege of issuing currency. Issue paper money in the home country, take it from the home country and use it in the home country. Issuing world currency is equivalent to collecting seigniorage from other countries, and this kind of income has no cost
China has a large amount of foreign exchange reserves, which is actually equivalent to a huge amount of free loans to foreign governments, and at the same time, it has to bear the inflation tax. After the internationalization of RMB, China can not only rece the loss of wealth caused by the use of foreign exchange, but also obtain international seigniorage income, opening up a new channel for China to use funds.
4. First, we should make use of the situation that the three world currencies of the United States, Europe and Japan are at a low ebb to expand the scope of RMB settlement in international trade and change the embarrassment of China's "big trading country and small currency country". Second, we should avoid risks for our foreign trade enterprises. In the past, international trade was settled in US dollars. After the settlement of US dollars, there was a exchange, mandatory exchange and RMB exchange. There was a change in the exchange rate. In the current situation of great fluctuations in the international financial market, in order to prevent exchange rate fluctuations, we adopted RMB direct settlement. In the short run, the introction of this measure is mainly an important measure for our foreign trade enterprises to avoid exchange rate risk. Third, it also provides a good foundation for the internationalization of the capital market, because China's financial system and a very important prerequisite for the internationalization of China's capital must be the internationalization of RMB, China's financial system will be internationalized. In this sense, the internationalization of RMB is the first force, the great development of our financial market, and the internationalization of financial market is the backup force. When these two are fully completed, China's finance will rise. At the same time, it can also boost China's status and voice in the international monetary and financial system; Fourth, rece the risk of the current massive foreign exchange reserves, appropriately rece the scale of foreign exchange reserves, avoid the losses caused by bundling US dollars, so as to get rid of the dependence of RMB on US dollars, and make it a fully circulating and international reserve currency. Fifth, more importantly, issue paper money in exchange for the resources of RMB holders, and increase the seigniorage income.
5. 1、 Advantages of RMB Internationalization:
1. Enhance China's international status and enhance China's influence on the world economy< 2. Rece the exchange rate risk and promote the development of China's international trade and investment
3. Further promote the development of China's border trade
4. After the internationalization of RMB, the most direct and biggest income is the international seigniorage income< Second, the negative impact of RMB internationalization. The internationalization of RMB makes China's domestic economy closely linked with the world economy. Any disturbance in the international financial market will have a certain impact on China's economy and finance
2. Increase the difficulty of macro-control. For example, when the domestic monetary policy is tightened to control inflation and the interest rate is raised, the international circulation of RMB will take the opportunity to increase the supply of RMB, thus weakening the implementation effect of monetary policy
3. Increase the difficulty of RMB cash management and monitoring

although a country's currency internationalization will bring all kinds of negative effects to the country, in the long run, the benefits brought by internationalization are far greater than the costs. The internationalization of US dollar, euro and other currencies shows that having the right to issue international currency means great economic and political interests in formulating or revising the rules for handling international affairs.
6. Nowadays, there are many virtual currencies. We must analyze them by ourselves. Enterprise currency, counterfeit currency, and electronic currency should not be used. Khan currency is a real virtual currency. It has open source code, decentralization, limited issue, and can be freely traded on international trading platforms. Shanzhai currency can't do these things. More information about virtual currency can be added to users
7.

Please accept

8. There is no special change. After the internationalization of RMB, it can circulate freely in the international market. The exchange rate of RMB can float freely and continuously in the form of market transaction. China's market economy status will be further recognized by western capitalist countries, and this open economic model will be greatly welcomed by western countries

I just want to talk about the situation after Internationalization:
1. The RMB exchange rate will not remain at the same price for a long time as it has been in the past 30 years. The exchange rate will fluctuate with the influence of national politics, economy, military affairs and emergencies
2. After free convertibility, the international status of RMB will increase and RMB will become one of the major currencies in the world
3. The free change of exchange rate is beneficial to a flexible market and can complement each other. However, China's market, which lacks flexibility, macro-control and government regulation, is likely to have a very strong blow, which will change the domestic economic order. It may be chaos before governance, or chaos to the end
4. What it brings to China's economy must be change. The government has the final say, and now it is guessing. What's so important? To be sure, a free floating exchange rate must be based on a complete market economy. Otherwise, the so-called free floating is not true, and it is controlled by the government
5. It will not have a great impact on our lives. No matter whether the RMB rises or falls, it will not have a great impact on the people. If the RMB goes up, it will be cheaper to buy imported things. If the RMB falls, it will attract more foreign investment, help enterprises export and increase domestic employment
6. Investment. You can speculate in foreign exchange. After floating freely, the RMB is bound to rise again. International speculators will hoard a lot of money to buy RMB, and the stock market will rise first and then fall. Domestic futures prices priced in RMB will rise first and then fall
7. Exchange rate fluctuations and domestic inflation, interest rates and international trade will be linked. In short, they have no impact on the people. For investment, they will add a more important and decisive indicator

hope to adopt
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10. First, we should take advantage of the situation that the three world currencies of the United States, Europe and Japan are at a low ebb to expand the scope of RMB settlement in international trade and change the embarrassment of China as a "big trading country and small currency country"
Second, we should avoid risks for our foreign trade enterprises. In the past, international trade was settled in US dollars. After the settlement of US dollars, there was a exchange, mandatory exchange and RMB exchange. There was a change in the exchange rate. In the current situation of great fluctuations in the international financial market, in order to prevent exchange rate fluctuations, we adopted RMB direct settlement. In the short run, the introction of this measure is mainly an important measure for our foreign trade enterprises to avoid exchange rate risk
thirdly, it also provides a good foundation for the internationalization of the capital market, because China's financial system, a very important prerequisite for the internationalization of China's capital, must be the internationalization of RMB, China's financial system will be internationalized. In this sense, the internationalization of RMB is the first force, the great development of our financial market, and the internationalization of financial market is the backup force. When these two are fully completed, China's finance will rise. At the same time, it can also boost China's status and voice in the international monetary and financial system
fourthly, we should rece the risk of the current massive foreign exchange reserves, appropriately rece the scale of foreign exchange reserves, avoid the losses caused by bundling US dollars, so as to get rid of the dependence of RMB on US dollars and make it a fully circulating and international reserve currency
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