Guts mining
Publish: 2021-04-16 23:55:03
1. The main effects of RMB appreciation on the stock market are as follows:
1. RMB appreciation marks the appreciation of all assets in RMB, so the stocks in RMB should certainly rise
2. The appreciation of RMB marks the enhancement of China's comprehensive national strength, which is the inevitable result of the accelerated healthy and stable operation of the whole macro economy in recent years. The rise and fall of the stock market is closely related to the operation of the macro economy, so the appreciation of RMB as a sign will promote the rise of the stock market
3. In this appreciation of RMB, we should pay more attention to the adjustment of the exchange rate system, which has changed from the previous focus on the US dollar to a limited floating exchange rate system, and will make RMB enter a cycle of appreciation against the US dollar. Then this further expectation of appreciation will have a strong role in promoting the rise of the stock market
4. The appreciation of RMB is a great benefit for resource importing enterprises, and the rection of cost will be concive to the substantial growth of the performance of these listed companies. The benefited sectors are concentrated in aviation, automobile, petroleum processing, high-end paper instry, technology importing high-tech instry and resource importing metal processing instry
5. The appreciation of RMB and the expectation of further appreciation will attract a large number of foreign capital to purchase RMB denominated assets. At present, the stock market is not fully open, and real estate and financial securities companies are the best investment platforms, which will benefit these two instries
6. RMB appreciation is bad for export-oriented enterprises and foreign trade enterprises. At present, the domestic textile instry, household appliances instry, small commodity instry, some foreign trade instries with a large proportion of exports, large shipbuilding instry, some enterprises with more foreign investment, and some enterprises with more foreign exchange reserves
to sum up, RMB appreciation and the adjustment of RMB exchange rate system have more advantages than disadvantages for the stock market< First, the benefits of RMB appreciation:
(1) RMB appreciation may mean the improvement of the status of RMB and China's economy in the world economy
1) the wealth in the hands of the Chinese people is more valuable. As soon as the RMB appreciation, the money in the hands of the people will be more valuable, and the global ranking of China's per capita GDP can also move forward
2) the pressure of China's foreign debt has been reced and its purchasing power has been enhanced
for example, who is paying to maintain the daily operation of the US government, which is known as the "global leader"? The answer, of course, is the vast number of taxpayers in the United States of America. The answer is not all right. Because the current federal government of the United States has a huge fiscal deficit, the contribution of taxpayers alone is not enough to spend, so it has to borrow a lot. And who is the biggest creditor? It's Japan and China. A large part of China's foreign exchange reserves of more than 300 billion US dollars are purchased from US government bonds
China has become one of the biggest creditors of the world's most powerful empire. This fact itself shows China's growing economic strength and international influence. Last year, China's contribution to global economic growth was second only to the United States; Its contribution to Global trade growth is second only to the United States and Japan* It's a good thing that RMB, which has economic strength, naturally has a greater say in international affairs
3) concive to the development of import instry: Shao Jinyang, deputy director of Sinopec, said in an interview: "if RMB appreciation, overseas assets will be cheaper for us." If the RMB appreciates by 5%, Sinopec's oil imports in 2003 will cost more than $100 million less at current prices< (2) the prospect of RMB appreciation is more and more clear
because, as before the policy of overestimating the value of RMB, which was forced to give up before 1994, it is also difficult for people to underestimate the value of the RMB. Because on the issue of exchange rate, policy intervention can take effect temporarily, but ultimately the market has the final say. As long as China can maintain high economic growth and promote the process of RMB's full convertibility, it will not be far before RMB appreciation becomes a regional and even world currency. At present, there is not enough evidence to show that China's economic growth will suddenly stop in the near future; China's monetary authorities have repeatedly said that the RMB will be fully convertible
in fact, the rise of RMB has begun, starting from the sharp depreciation on January 1, 1994. This year, the official exchange rate of RMB was close to the market exchange rate, which was adjusted from 5.80 yuan to 8.70 yuan, a depreciation rate of 33%. From then on to the end of last year, according to the statistics of the State Administration of foreign exchange, the nominal appreciation rates of RMB against the US dollar, the euro (before 1999, it was the German mark) and the Japanese yen were 5.1%, 17.9% and 17% respectively; Considering inflation, the real appreciation was 18.5%, 39.4% and 62.9% respectively. The IMF's results reflect the same trend< However, at present, there are no realistic conditions to ince RMB appreciation< Second, the disadvantages of RMB appreciation:
(1) China's economic growth will slow down e to the influence of RMB appreciation. There are three aspects:
1) RMB appreciation will affect China's foreign trade and export. The appreciation of RMB will raise the price of Chinese procts, increase the cost of capital investment, and bring about the decline of the competitiveness of China's export procts, thus causing the depression of the domestic economy
the appreciation of a country's currency leads to the decline of the competitiveness of its export procts, which leads to the depression of the domestic economy. Japan has learned a bloody lesson on this issue. In 1985, in order to curb the tide of cheap Japanese exports, the financial leaders of the United States, France, Germany and Britain took corresponding measures to force Japan to sign the "Plaza Agreement", thus forcing the yen to appreciate by 30%. Since then, in the 10 years from 1985 to 1996, the ratio of yen to us dollar has risen from 250:1 to 87:1, with an appreciation of nearly three times. The "Plaza Agreement" is recognized as the main cause of Japan's economic recession. Now Japan just wants to pass this tragedy on to China
2) it will also affect the comprehensive competitiveness of Chinese enterprises and many instries. Although "made in China" has become the main proct in the world market, a fatal weakness of Chinese procts is that they have not yet formed their own brand. The current market share mainly depends on the low price of Chinese procts, and they are not in the dominant position in the competition. If the competitiveness is hit, it will be terrible
the biggest finding of the survey of Chinese entrepreneurs is that 82.4% of enterprises believe that the change of RMB exchange rate will have an impact on their business activities. For the enterprises that are active on the stage of China's economy, RMB is just like air and water
for example, Huang Hongsheng, the chairman of the board of directors of Skyworth Group, is worried about the prospect of appreciation. He believes that most of China's exports are low-tech procts and few high-tech procts. If RMB appreciation, China's international status may be improved, but the global competitiveness of manufacturing instry will graally lose. He calculated that if the RMB appreciation is 10%, the export price will increase by 10%, and the profit of domestic manufacturing enterprises is only about 5%. With some financial discount, the average profit level of Chinese enterprises is less than 3%. How can an average profit margin of 3% adjust the appreciation pressure of 10%? There are bound to be large losses
taking Skyworth as an example, Huang Hongsheng outlined the highest psychological bottom line for Chinese enterprises to appreciate the RMB: "it's difficult for us to make a big improvement in the US market now, because the prices of other world factory procts are as low as ours. For example, the color TV sets from Mexico, the procts from Europe and Turkey are very cheap, so it is impossible for us to raise a dollar. We hope to increase sales by 30 million US dollars in the US market this year, but if the RMB appreciation, then this plan will be aborted. "< Another example: compared with manufacturing enterprises, those foreign trade enterprises at the forefront of exchange rate risk are the strongest perceivers of change. For export-oriented enterprises, the volume of export is much larger than that of import. Therefore, Huang Hongsheng said that the appreciation of the RMB will cause a devastating blow
Huang fangning, assistant to the general manager of Oriental Scientific Instruments Import and Export Group, told reporters about an example of loss caused by the appreciation of euro, that is, the depreciation of RMB. At the beginning of 2003, they had a deal. When they signed the contract, the exchange rate between Euro and US dollar was still 1:0.9. When they delivered the goods, it rose to 1:1.1. They did not take measures to lock the exchange rate, so they lost money“ Even if we have 10% or 20% of the intermediate profit, it will not be able to offset the loss of appreciation. We have to make it up by ourselves. "
another example: some multinational enterprises that used to proce in China may transfer their investment to Mexico or Malaysia. In the 1980s, Taiwan also experienced the pressure from China. After the exchange rate of the Taiwan dollar against the US dollar rose from 1:40 to 1:25, some traditional low value-added instries moved to Dongguan one after another. Similarly, some experts have analyzed that if the RMB appreciation, these traditional instries will be transferred from Dongguan to less developed regions such as Central Asia and Vietnam. Originally, there are many areas in China, such as the west, which can accommodate these instries. However, because the monetary adjustment is aimed at all enterprises, China may be forced to experience the process of instrial hollowing out earlier
3) it will also damage the long-term development of China's economy and make China's finance closer to the edge of crisis. The appreciation instry may ruin the good investment environment created by years of hard work in China, while the new overseas investment will be reced, and the driving force of China's economic growth will be greatly reced, because such investment will become relatively expensive. On the other hand, the speculative activities of international hot money may increase, making China's finance closer to the edge of crisis
for example, from the Mexican financial crisis to the Asian financial crisis, it is obvious that the governments of these countries adopt high interest rate monetary policies to absorb domestic funds, but the effect is just the opposite. Due to the lack of internal funds, they also attract a large number of international hot capital flows, resulting in the deviation of capital flows and the contradiction of capital structure, It has buried the hidden danger of currency crisis; At the same time, the contradiction between the inflow of foreign capital and the exchange rate of the local currency has been generated, triggering the exposure of economic structure problems, or the emergence of a bubble economy or economic downturn, thus forcing the implementation of the currency devaluation policy, which directly leads to the transaction risk of money market and securities market, and finally leads to the financial crisis.
what is financial crisis? It's like a poor family with a rich relative who brings them a temporary "affluent" life, so outsiders lend the family a lot of money because of their wealth. Unexpectedly, the rich relative of the family suddenly disappears, leaving the family only a high debt platform, which leads to friends who borrow a lot of money. At one time, there were four crises
it can be seen that if RMB appreciation, it will lead to: e to the lack of internal funds, it will attract a large number of international hot money inflows, which will lead to the deviation of capital flow and the formation of capital structure contradictions, which will bury the hidden danger of currency crisis
4) in addition, after the appreciation, it will lead to the following problems
1. RMB appreciation marks the appreciation of all assets in RMB, so the stocks in RMB should certainly rise
2. The appreciation of RMB marks the enhancement of China's comprehensive national strength, which is the inevitable result of the accelerated healthy and stable operation of the whole macro economy in recent years. The rise and fall of the stock market is closely related to the operation of the macro economy, so the appreciation of RMB as a sign will promote the rise of the stock market
3. In this appreciation of RMB, we should pay more attention to the adjustment of the exchange rate system, which has changed from the previous focus on the US dollar to a limited floating exchange rate system, and will make RMB enter a cycle of appreciation against the US dollar. Then this further expectation of appreciation will have a strong role in promoting the rise of the stock market
4. The appreciation of RMB is a great benefit for resource importing enterprises, and the rection of cost will be concive to the substantial growth of the performance of these listed companies. The benefited sectors are concentrated in aviation, automobile, petroleum processing, high-end paper instry, technology importing high-tech instry and resource importing metal processing instry
5. The appreciation of RMB and the expectation of further appreciation will attract a large number of foreign capital to purchase RMB denominated assets. At present, the stock market is not fully open, and real estate and financial securities companies are the best investment platforms, which will benefit these two instries
6. RMB appreciation is bad for export-oriented enterprises and foreign trade enterprises. At present, the domestic textile instry, household appliances instry, small commodity instry, some foreign trade instries with a large proportion of exports, large shipbuilding instry, some enterprises with more foreign investment, and some enterprises with more foreign exchange reserves
to sum up, RMB appreciation and the adjustment of RMB exchange rate system have more advantages than disadvantages for the stock market< First, the benefits of RMB appreciation:
(1) RMB appreciation may mean the improvement of the status of RMB and China's economy in the world economy
1) the wealth in the hands of the Chinese people is more valuable. As soon as the RMB appreciation, the money in the hands of the people will be more valuable, and the global ranking of China's per capita GDP can also move forward
2) the pressure of China's foreign debt has been reced and its purchasing power has been enhanced
for example, who is paying to maintain the daily operation of the US government, which is known as the "global leader"? The answer, of course, is the vast number of taxpayers in the United States of America. The answer is not all right. Because the current federal government of the United States has a huge fiscal deficit, the contribution of taxpayers alone is not enough to spend, so it has to borrow a lot. And who is the biggest creditor? It's Japan and China. A large part of China's foreign exchange reserves of more than 300 billion US dollars are purchased from US government bonds
China has become one of the biggest creditors of the world's most powerful empire. This fact itself shows China's growing economic strength and international influence. Last year, China's contribution to global economic growth was second only to the United States; Its contribution to Global trade growth is second only to the United States and Japan* It's a good thing that RMB, which has economic strength, naturally has a greater say in international affairs
3) concive to the development of import instry: Shao Jinyang, deputy director of Sinopec, said in an interview: "if RMB appreciation, overseas assets will be cheaper for us." If the RMB appreciates by 5%, Sinopec's oil imports in 2003 will cost more than $100 million less at current prices< (2) the prospect of RMB appreciation is more and more clear
because, as before the policy of overestimating the value of RMB, which was forced to give up before 1994, it is also difficult for people to underestimate the value of the RMB. Because on the issue of exchange rate, policy intervention can take effect temporarily, but ultimately the market has the final say. As long as China can maintain high economic growth and promote the process of RMB's full convertibility, it will not be far before RMB appreciation becomes a regional and even world currency. At present, there is not enough evidence to show that China's economic growth will suddenly stop in the near future; China's monetary authorities have repeatedly said that the RMB will be fully convertible
in fact, the rise of RMB has begun, starting from the sharp depreciation on January 1, 1994. This year, the official exchange rate of RMB was close to the market exchange rate, which was adjusted from 5.80 yuan to 8.70 yuan, a depreciation rate of 33%. From then on to the end of last year, according to the statistics of the State Administration of foreign exchange, the nominal appreciation rates of RMB against the US dollar, the euro (before 1999, it was the German mark) and the Japanese yen were 5.1%, 17.9% and 17% respectively; Considering inflation, the real appreciation was 18.5%, 39.4% and 62.9% respectively. The IMF's results reflect the same trend< However, at present, there are no realistic conditions to ince RMB appreciation< Second, the disadvantages of RMB appreciation:
(1) China's economic growth will slow down e to the influence of RMB appreciation. There are three aspects:
1) RMB appreciation will affect China's foreign trade and export. The appreciation of RMB will raise the price of Chinese procts, increase the cost of capital investment, and bring about the decline of the competitiveness of China's export procts, thus causing the depression of the domestic economy
the appreciation of a country's currency leads to the decline of the competitiveness of its export procts, which leads to the depression of the domestic economy. Japan has learned a bloody lesson on this issue. In 1985, in order to curb the tide of cheap Japanese exports, the financial leaders of the United States, France, Germany and Britain took corresponding measures to force Japan to sign the "Plaza Agreement", thus forcing the yen to appreciate by 30%. Since then, in the 10 years from 1985 to 1996, the ratio of yen to us dollar has risen from 250:1 to 87:1, with an appreciation of nearly three times. The "Plaza Agreement" is recognized as the main cause of Japan's economic recession. Now Japan just wants to pass this tragedy on to China
2) it will also affect the comprehensive competitiveness of Chinese enterprises and many instries. Although "made in China" has become the main proct in the world market, a fatal weakness of Chinese procts is that they have not yet formed their own brand. The current market share mainly depends on the low price of Chinese procts, and they are not in the dominant position in the competition. If the competitiveness is hit, it will be terrible
the biggest finding of the survey of Chinese entrepreneurs is that 82.4% of enterprises believe that the change of RMB exchange rate will have an impact on their business activities. For the enterprises that are active on the stage of China's economy, RMB is just like air and water
for example, Huang Hongsheng, the chairman of the board of directors of Skyworth Group, is worried about the prospect of appreciation. He believes that most of China's exports are low-tech procts and few high-tech procts. If RMB appreciation, China's international status may be improved, but the global competitiveness of manufacturing instry will graally lose. He calculated that if the RMB appreciation is 10%, the export price will increase by 10%, and the profit of domestic manufacturing enterprises is only about 5%. With some financial discount, the average profit level of Chinese enterprises is less than 3%. How can an average profit margin of 3% adjust the appreciation pressure of 10%? There are bound to be large losses
taking Skyworth as an example, Huang Hongsheng outlined the highest psychological bottom line for Chinese enterprises to appreciate the RMB: "it's difficult for us to make a big improvement in the US market now, because the prices of other world factory procts are as low as ours. For example, the color TV sets from Mexico, the procts from Europe and Turkey are very cheap, so it is impossible for us to raise a dollar. We hope to increase sales by 30 million US dollars in the US market this year, but if the RMB appreciation, then this plan will be aborted. "< Another example: compared with manufacturing enterprises, those foreign trade enterprises at the forefront of exchange rate risk are the strongest perceivers of change. For export-oriented enterprises, the volume of export is much larger than that of import. Therefore, Huang Hongsheng said that the appreciation of the RMB will cause a devastating blow
Huang fangning, assistant to the general manager of Oriental Scientific Instruments Import and Export Group, told reporters about an example of loss caused by the appreciation of euro, that is, the depreciation of RMB. At the beginning of 2003, they had a deal. When they signed the contract, the exchange rate between Euro and US dollar was still 1:0.9. When they delivered the goods, it rose to 1:1.1. They did not take measures to lock the exchange rate, so they lost money“ Even if we have 10% or 20% of the intermediate profit, it will not be able to offset the loss of appreciation. We have to make it up by ourselves. "
another example: some multinational enterprises that used to proce in China may transfer their investment to Mexico or Malaysia. In the 1980s, Taiwan also experienced the pressure from China. After the exchange rate of the Taiwan dollar against the US dollar rose from 1:40 to 1:25, some traditional low value-added instries moved to Dongguan one after another. Similarly, some experts have analyzed that if the RMB appreciation, these traditional instries will be transferred from Dongguan to less developed regions such as Central Asia and Vietnam. Originally, there are many areas in China, such as the west, which can accommodate these instries. However, because the monetary adjustment is aimed at all enterprises, China may be forced to experience the process of instrial hollowing out earlier
3) it will also damage the long-term development of China's economy and make China's finance closer to the edge of crisis. The appreciation instry may ruin the good investment environment created by years of hard work in China, while the new overseas investment will be reced, and the driving force of China's economic growth will be greatly reced, because such investment will become relatively expensive. On the other hand, the speculative activities of international hot money may increase, making China's finance closer to the edge of crisis
for example, from the Mexican financial crisis to the Asian financial crisis, it is obvious that the governments of these countries adopt high interest rate monetary policies to absorb domestic funds, but the effect is just the opposite. Due to the lack of internal funds, they also attract a large number of international hot capital flows, resulting in the deviation of capital flows and the contradiction of capital structure, It has buried the hidden danger of currency crisis; At the same time, the contradiction between the inflow of foreign capital and the exchange rate of the local currency has been generated, triggering the exposure of economic structure problems, or the emergence of a bubble economy or economic downturn, thus forcing the implementation of the currency devaluation policy, which directly leads to the transaction risk of money market and securities market, and finally leads to the financial crisis.
what is financial crisis? It's like a poor family with a rich relative who brings them a temporary "affluent" life, so outsiders lend the family a lot of money because of their wealth. Unexpectedly, the rich relative of the family suddenly disappears, leaving the family only a high debt platform, which leads to friends who borrow a lot of money. At one time, there were four crises
it can be seen that if RMB appreciation, it will lead to: e to the lack of internal funds, it will attract a large number of international hot money inflows, which will lead to the deviation of capital flow and the formation of capital structure contradictions, which will bury the hidden danger of currency crisis
4) in addition, after the appreciation, it will lead to the following problems
2. Colon leaky gut
colon leak good
colon
bilingual control
dictionary results:
colon; kə&# 650; lə n] [beauty] 712; koʊ lə n]
n. colon& lt; Solution & gt; Colon; Koran (Costa Rican unit of currency)< This carbon resie has chemicals linked to breast, colon, lung and other cancers.
these carbon resies contain chemicals that can easily lead to breast, colon, lung and other cancers.
colon leak good
colon
bilingual control
dictionary results:
colon; kə&# 650; lə n] [beauty] 712; koʊ lə n]
n. colon& lt; Solution & gt; Colon; Koran (Costa Rican unit of currency)< This carbon resie has chemicals linked to breast, colon, lung and other cancers.
these carbon resies contain chemicals that can easily lead to breast, colon, lung and other cancers.
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